So much for Liberal-Nationals boasts concerning regional jobs growth in 2019

After Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison abandoned the Coalition's proposed National Energy Guarantee which would allegedly reduce polluting emissions and lower electricity retail costs, the energy sector remains in disarray.

One hundred and sixty-five jobs are at risk across regional News South Wales as Essential Energywhose operational footprint covers 95 percent of the state apparently considers downsizing employee numbers as a cost-cutting measure is the best way to gain the Morrison Government’s approval.

In all probability hoping that this move will appease Morrison and he will then decide to forget his promise to force all energy companies to lower their prices.

Sadly, this is just the sort of short-sighted approach to cost cutting which ‘The Liar From The Shire’ would approve.

Though how downsizing staff leads to better customer service under The Energy Charter I am at a loss to understand.

The Daily Examiner, 4 July 2019, p.1:

Methods used to determine who stays in a job at Essential Energy have been likened to the battle for survival in sci-fi film Hunger Games.

The Electrical Trade Union claims workers will be pitted against each other to save their own job and asserts that the company has told workers Grafton will be one of the hardest hit in a plan to slash 165 jobs across regional NSW.

The Daily Examiner was told of workers being asked to write letters to state why they should keep their job.

ETU secretary Justin Paige slammed the announcement of cuts, saying the use of forced redundancies along with a “Hunger Games” style competition between workers was causing unnecessary hardship.

“Workers have been given less than a week to respond to the plan, with the first staff to be made forcibly redundant as early as July 10, but we are examining every legal and industrial avenue available to stop them,” Mr Paige said.

“The worst part is many of these cuts will be undertaken through what management have called a ‘merit selection process’, which will essentially pit workers against each other to save their own job.

Clarence MP Chris Gulaptis and Deputy Premier John Barilaro poured scorn on the proposed job losses…...

The Daily Examiner, 5 July 2019, p.3:

The ALP has accused Nationals MPs of hypocrisy over their response to Essential Energy sacking 182 employees.

Member for Lismore Janelle Saffin said it was the height of hypocrisy for Nationals MPs like John Barilaro and Chris Gulaptis to claim they are fighting against Essential Energy’s regional job cuts.

Ms Saffin said the Nationals allowed Essential Energy to be corporatised so they could bleat all they like but lost their say in the matter when they agreed to the sell-off.

“The Nationals’ excuse was that a Restart fund would be set up from the proceeds of the sale and that regional and rural NSW would get 30 per cent of the proceeds annually,” Ms Saffin said. “They never even delivered and failed regional NSW. The Auditor General has showed year after year since 2011 that Restart has not met the Nationals’ 30 per cent target – it was 17 per cent last year.

“The Nationals lost three seats at the recent State election, which is why John Barilaro is now posturing that his hapless party is suddenly independent of the Liberals.”

Ms Saffin said she was saddened to hear of Essential Energy’s plan to sack more workers as it was a cruel blow to them and their families, and would make it harder on remaining workers maintaining or upgrading infrastructure.

“Essential Energy, which operates electricity poles and wires across 95 per cent of the state, has gutted more than 2000 jobs from their ranks since 2015,” Ms Saffin said.

“It is hard enough to get permanent roles in the regions and while jobs have grown in the city it has been slow here…..

The Daily Examiner, 8 July 2019, p.3:

Essential Energy has hit the pause button on its moves to cut 182 job across Northern NSW after a Fair Work Commission meeting which called for the company to provide further information to its workers.

On Friday power industry unions reached an in-principle agreement with Essential Energy in the Fair Work Commission that paused planned job cuts until additional consultation took place.

The agreement means no jobs will be lost before mid-August, with unions given an opportunity to propose alternative cost saving measures and initiatives that could avert the need for redundancies.

Essential Energy committed to distributing information to all employees by July 19 that includes: the justification for role reductions, the specific impacts of cuts on remaining team members, and details of the tasks or functions that will cease to be performed.

Essential Energy also committed to consider alternative savings measures before redundancy decisions.

Electrical Trades Union secretary Justin Page welcomed the outcome, saying it was vital workers could identify alternatives to regional job cuts.

“This is a tough time for Essential Energy workers, their families and colleagues,” Mr Page said.

“After four years of deep staffing cuts at Essential Energy – which has not only devastated those workers directly impacted, but has had profound impacts on service delivery and regional communities – today’s reprieve is extremely welcome, but is just the start…..

Housing affordability for NSW North Coast renters is beyond the reach of many

On 1 May 2019 The Financial Review reported on the top twenty federal electorates with the highest level of rental stress in Australia.

The Northern Rivers federal electorates of Richmond and Page were placed in 3rd & 8th positions respectively, with a total of 13,937 household experiencing rental stress .

While the mid-North Coast federal electorates of Lyne and Cowper came in 6th & 10th place, with a total of 13,283 households under rental stress.

Anglicare Australia's 2018 Rental Affordability Snapshot demonstrates that this stress is an ongoing problem with housing affordability for those on low incomes on the NSW North Coast.

In 2018 five of the six NSW local government areas with the most unaffordable rentals were on the Far and Mid North Coast.

A St Vincent de Paul Society spokesperson is reported in The Daily Examiner this week highlighting the fact that people on the North Coast are going without food in order to keep their rental accommodation.

The Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government spends literally billions supporting property speculators and investors in their aspirations to become personally wealthy, but is ignoring the plight of low income renters trying to keep a roof over their heads.

If it will no longer invest in affordable housing through adequate targeted federal funding tied to the states increasing social/community housing stocks, the least it can do is raise the Commonwealth Rental Assistance Payment available to eligible low-income individuals and families.

Australian Prime Minister Morrison's relentless hammering of the poor and vulnerable set to continue?

The Guardian, 7 July 2019:

The Morrison government says it remains committed to a plan criticised as “brutal” to dock the welfare of those who repeatedly fail to pay state fines, and may still proceed with cuts to student payments claimed by the unemployed, the disabled and sole parents.

The Coalition introduced a number of welfare measures in 2017 which drew the ire of social service groups but ultimately never came into effect because the government failed to win the support of the Senate or the states and territories.

Guardian Australia reported this month that internal documents suggested the contentious plan to drug test welfare recipients was not a priority, but the government has insisted it remains on its agenda.

Other welfare proposals from the last parliament included about $90m in cuts to student payments, legislation to automatically deduct rent from welfare recipients living in social housing, which critics said could put family violence survivors at risk, and a plan to impose the “demerit point” compliance scheme on those doing the remote work-for-the-dole program, which has seen payment suspensions surge…...

But the spokesman did confirm the government still intended to create the scheme to automatically dock 15% of payments for those who have unpaid fines…...

“The Encouraging Lawful Behaviour of Income Support Recipients proposal remains government policy and requires legislative approval,” Ruston’s spokesman said…..

Labor had opposed the cuts to the $208-a-year pensioner education supplement and the $32.20-a week education entry payment, which are intended to help low-income people with the cost of study.

The changes would save the budget $95m over five years, but the opposition said the policy would hurt people with disability, carers, sole parents and the unemployed.

The Australian Council of Social Service has previously lashed the plan to dock welfare payments from people with court-ordered state fines as “particularly brutal”.

The proposal would automatically dock 15% of an income support payment, but critics say it will push vulnerable people into homelessness.

Welfare groups including the Australian Unemployed Workers Union have also expressed grave concerns about a plan announced last year to link Newstart recipients to farm work using the national database.

The unemployed would face losing their welfare payments for four weeks if they turned down what the government described as a “suitable job without reasonable excuse”.

The department of employment confirmed the policy would begin in July next year.

Then there is this.....

Encouraginglawful behaviour of income support recipients 2018 Budget 

Tears before bedtime under The National Strategic Action Plan for Pain Management?

Painaustralia says of itself that it is “Australia’s leading pain advocacy body working to improve the quality of life of people living with pain, their families and carers, and to minimise the social and economic burden of pain on individuals and the community”.

On 11 June 2019 it released a copy of The National Strategic Action Plan for Pain Management having convinced the Morrison Coalition Government that this plan is the bee knees when it comes to pain management.

If the following article is anything to go by it will be tears before bedtime for many chronic pain suffers as the plan does not contain any mention of actually increasing the number pain specialists practicing in Australia or of attempting to lower wait times to see such specialists.

Currently NSW Health only lists 35 pain management services in the state and most of these are attached to metropolitan public hospitals.

Instead people experiencing acute and chronic pain are to be offered 10 Medicare-funded group services and 10 individual services each calendar year, with access to telehealth pain management advice for regional areas where pain management services are not available.

As for pain management using prescribed medications – that is apparently going to be more difficult to access as Painaustralia and the Morrison Government are alarmed that opiate prescriptions in rural & regional Australia have risen in the last ten years. 

Seemingly conveniently blind to any relationship between increased prescribing and low GP numbers, smaller often poorly resourced public hospitals, a reliance on what might be termed 'flyin-flyout' medical specialists who prefer not to live in those rural or regional areas their patients inhabit and the economic tyranny of distance for the patient.

The Daily Examiner, 18 June 2019, p.8:

Doctors will be sent back to school to be re-educated about treating chronic pain and patients given a Medicare boost under a new national strategy.

The first national pain strategy launching today also calls for a national one-stop website to be set up to educate people about how to manage pain without drugs and where to find help.

“There is a screaming need here because pain is a significant burden on the economy, on society and the health system,” Pain Australia chief executive Carol Bennett said.

More than 3.24 million Australians are living with chronic pain and many are becoming addicted to opioid medications while they wait up to four years to see a pain specialist for help.

Last year Australians paid $2.7 billion in out-of-pocket expenses to manage their pain and missed 9.9 million days of work because of the condition.

The new strategy funded by the Federal Government and developed by Pain Australia wants pain to be treated in the same way as mental health, with Medicare funding up to 20 medical and group sessions to help people get it under control. It also calls for a new certificate in pain medicine for GPs and other health professionals that would require six months of study.

The consultation work that took place around the development of the new plan found doctors’ knowledge about the latest pain management techniques was out of date.

“For lower back pain people are popping pills and having surgery but for the last 15 years we’ve known you’ve got to get moving and rehabilitate yourself with physical management,” Ms Bennett said.

Anti-inflammatory medications should not be used for more than a few days and long-term strengthening of the muscles, good nutrition and sleep were the key to treating the problem rather than drugs, she said.

Instead of helping patients manage pain in this way, doctors were prescribing increasing amounts of dangerous and addictive opioid medicines.

So who is to blame for the new Morrison Government?

As of 4:09pm on Thursday 6 June 2019 an est. 6,613,352 Australian citizens had voted for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition at the 18 May 2019 federal election, by either directly giving their first preference to one or the other of these two political parties or placing them high on the range of second preference choices printed on ballot papers.

So let’s get one thing clear, it is not the fault of any one state or territory that the hard right Morrison Coalition Government was returned to power. It is not the fault of Labor or the Greens.

Full responsibility for the election result lies with those est. 6,613,352 people and, they know who they are.

They are the voters now personally responsible for any and all actions of the Morrison Government, from the date government ministers were sworn-in post-election to the day the 2022 federal election is held.

To all those individuals I say this:

If the national economy tanks in the next three years – it’s your fault;

If wages fall even further behind the cost of living for low and middle income households – it’s your fault;

If there is no significant increase in the Newstart allowance meaning that young and older job seekers continue to starve in an economy which has limited job vacancies – it’s your fault;

If the national debt increases even further to cope with reckless government spending and dubious overgenerous government tenders – it’s your fault;

If the annual budget blows out into significant deficit because so many greedy people are joining the franking credit rort – it’s your fault;

If Liberal and National parliamentarians become even more profligate while on the public purse – it’s your fault;

If there are more budget funding cuts to essential services, including health, public education, welfare, domestic violence, legal assistance – it’s your fault;

If more people suicide because of the federal government's flawed and punitive debt recovery system – it’s your fault;

If there is an increase in the privatisation of government services with a corresponding decrease in adequate service delivery – it’s your fault;

If the cost of child care continues to make life economically difficult for women wanting to participate in the workforce – it’s your fault;

If women pushed onto the ParentsNext scheme continue to be punished by the Morrison Government by the withholding of money to feed their babies and small children – it’s your fault; 

If young first home buyers continue to be squeezed out of the housing market by investors and property speculators – it’s your fault; 

If there is an increase in discrimination against vulnerable groups, including the LBGTI community – it’s your fault;

If human rights abuses continue in immigration detention centres – it’s your fault; 

If the frail elderly don't have access to timely free urgent dental care – it’s your fault;

If the National Disability Insurance Scheme continues to fall short of its legislated responsibilities and administrative goals, leaving the needs of clients unmet – it’s your fault;

If the poor continue to have limited access to and no real equity in the benefits derived from a modern democratic society – it’s your fault;

If the discriminatory cashless welfare card is extended to more areas across the country and/or to wider categories of welfare recipients – it’s your fault;

If blatant water rorts and water thefts continue and more towns/cities run low or are completely out of drinking water over the next three years – it’s your fault;

If environmental degradation of the river systems in the Murray-Darling Basin is not halted – it’s your fault;

If a federal government data breach compromises your privacy or the privacy of a friend or family member – it’s your fault;

If the number of citizens arrested and tried for calmly speaking truth to power begins to rise – it’s your fault;

If the Morrison Government loses China’s goodwill as our largest trading partner in order to curry favour with US President Donald Trump – it’s your fault; and

If climate change hammers this nation into the ground over the next three years – it’s your fault.

There are no excuses, there is no magical do over. The est. 6,613,352 Australian citizens who either voted directly or indirectly for the Liberal-Nationals Coalition chose the political path we are now on.

These people alone are to blame for whatever flawed or corrupt actions the Morrison Government takes and the consequences of that government's neglect or indifference during its current term in office.

I reiterate. Each of you brought the second Morrison Government into existence. You own that fact. So don't even try to deflect the blame onto others.

A word or two on the Australian economy…….

“The financial year ending in 24 days will be recorded as Australia’s worst since 1992, when the nation was struggling to recover from the 1991 recession.”  [Contributing Editor Michael Pascoe, The New Daily, 5 June 2019]

With wages growth stagnant and a rise in unemployment the slowing economy became even slower last month as consumers kept their wallets closed, perhaps sensing the uncertainty behind Prime Minister Scott 'Liar  from the Shire' Morrison's empty brag of a strong economy during the recent federal election campaign.

Australian Treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg let the cat out of the bag when speaking with the banks ahead of the 4 June 2019 Reserve Bank official cash rate cut when he was variously reported as admitting the economy faced significant problems or domestic and international economic challenges.  A few days later it was factors which weighed on the economy.

Here is how mainstream media and statisticians presented the situation........

The Age, 2 June 2019:

On the basis of the December quarter numbers Australia is already in a recession on a per capita basis. It has been there before in its record-setting period of economic expansion, but there is a sense this time that it will be lucky to avoid a contraction.

Slowing economic trends are unlikely to have reversed in the first quarter of 2019. We haven’t seen those March quarter numbers yet, but they are unlikely to be good, and may be bad. Political uncertainties will not have helped.

What is in prospect is the sort of outcome that will compound the concerning result in the second half of 2018 when GDP slowed dramatically to 1 percent year-on-year.

If that slowdown becomes entrenched, Australia will tip into a recession for the first time in a generation with all the consequences that will follow. This includes an indelible political context.

After six years in office, the Coalition cannot reasonably blame its predecessor for tepid wages growth, weak productivity gains, spiralling household debt, a doubling of net government debt, and a depreciation of the Australian dollar by about 30 per cent since a Tony Abbott-led government took office in 2013.

Interest rate cuts may further weaken the dollar. This would be good for commodities exporters, bad for consumers.

A booming property sector fuelled by easy credit and lax Foreign Investment Review Board strictures on Chinese money flooding the market contributed to an illusion of wellbeing, the so-called wealth effect: or, perhaps, better described as the “wealth illusion’’.

Cuts to interest rates may give the economy a bump. The removal of the spectre of a Labor government, at odds with aspirational Australia, may encourage investment.

However, what should be concerning the government, as it prepares for the first session of the 46th parliament in early July, is that unemployment in April ticked up to 5.2 per cent from 5 per cent, and underemployment jumped to 8.5 per cent.

Finally, this brings us to Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s pledge to bring the budget back into surplus in 2020-21 and begin paying down debt. If a recession bites that undertaking will not be worth the budget papers on which it is written.

The question will then become whether - and how quickly - the Morrison government can bring itself to admit its budgetary projections, reaffirmed by a docile Treasury in its pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO), misfired.

Rather than surpluses as far the eye can see and tax cuts on the horizon it would be dealing with an entirely different scenario.

What would be needed in that case is real stimulus for capital works projects rather than short-term fixes in the form of tax cuts that might be good for the sale of Harvey Norman flat-screen televisions, but will do little for wages growth or the economy overall.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 4 June 2019:

Retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in April

Australian retail turnover fell 0.1 per cent in April 2019, seasonally adjusted, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Retail Trade figures.

This follows a rise of 0.3 per cent in March 2019.

"There were mixed results across industries" said Ben Faulkner, ABS Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, "with falls in Household goods retailing (-0.9 per cent), Cafes, restaurant and takeaway food services (-0.7 per cent), and Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-1.2 per cent), which were offset by rises in Other retailing (0.8 per cent), Department stores (1.8 per cent), and Food retailing (0.2 per cent)."

In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in New South Wales (-0.4 per cent), Victoria (-0.4 per cent), the Northern Territory (-0.5 per cent), and the Australian Capital Territory (-0.2 per cent). There were rises in Queensland (0.7 per cent), South Australia (0.6 per cent), Western Australia (0.1 per cent), and Tasmania (0.3 per cent).

The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in April 2019, following a 0.2 per cent rise in March 2019. Compared to April 2018, the trend estimate rose 2.9 per cent.

Online retail turnover contributed 5.7 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in April 2019, which was unchanged from March 2019. In April 2018, online retail turnover contributed 5.4 per cent to total retail.

More detailed industry analysis and further information on the statistical methodology is available in Retail Trade, Australia (cat no. 8501.0).

Reserve Bank of Australia. media release, 4 June 2019:

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. The Board took this decision to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target.

The outlook for the global economy remains reasonable, although the downside risks stemming from the trade disputes have increased. Growth in international trade remains weak and the increased uncertainty is affecting investment intentions in a number of countries. In China, the authorities have taken steps to support the economy, while addressing risks in the financial system. In most advanced economies, inflation remains subdued, unemployment rates are low and wages growth has picked up.

Global financial conditions remain accommodative. Long-term bond yields and risk premiums are low. In Australia, long-term bond yields are at historically low levels. Bank funding costs have also declined further, with money-market spreads having fully reversed the increases that took place last year. The Australian dollar has depreciated a little over the past few months and is at the low end of its narrow range of recent times.

The central scenario remains for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent in 2019 and 2020. This outlook is supported by increased investment in infrastructure and a pick-up in activity in the resources sector, partly in response to an increase in the prices of Australia's exports. The main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for household consumption, which is being affected by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices. Some pick-up in growth in household disposable income is expected and this should support consumption.

Employment growth has been strong over the past year, labour force participation has been increasing, the vacancy rate remains high and there are reports of skills shortages in some areas. Despite these developments, there has been little further inroads into the spare capacity in the labour market of late. The unemployment rate had been steady at around 5 per cent for some months, but ticked up to 5.2 per cent in April. The strong employment growth over the past year or so has led to a pick-up in wages growth in the private sector, although overall wages growth remains low. A further gradual lift in wages growth is expected and this would be a welcome development. Taken together, these labour market outcomes suggest that the Australian economy can sustain a lower rate of unemployment.

The recent inflation outcomes have been lower than expected and suggest subdued inflationary pressures across much of the economy. Inflation is still however anticipated to pick up, and will be boosted in the June quarter by increases in petrol prices. The central scenario remains for underlying inflation to be 1¾ per cent this year, 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that.

The adjustment in established housing markets is continuing, after the earlier large run-up in prices in some cities. Conditions remain soft, although in some markets the rate of price decline has slowed and auction clearance rates have increased. Growth in housing credit has also stabilised recently. Credit conditions have been tightened and the demand for credit by investors has been subdued for some time. Mortgage rates remain low and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.

Today's decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.

How the Prime Minister is reorganising our lives in 2019

On the day Scott Morrison arranged to be sworn-in as Australian prime minister for the second time he also made a few administrative changes.

From now on the Dept. of Human Services, which delivers social and health payments through such services such as Medicare, Centrelink and Child Support, will have the word "Human" erased from its title.

It will now be called Services Australia. A neutral name which will probably make privatisation of its more human service components that much easier down the track.

Services Australia has also been expanded to include responsibility for whole of government service delivery. 

The new Minister for Government Services and Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme is noneother than the Qld Liberal MP for Fadden Stuart Robert, who in 2016 resigned as the Minister for Human Services after questions were raised over his fitness for office. Thus proving that when it comes to political probity it's not what you did in the past but who you pray with now that matters.

The new Minister for Families and Social Services was listed on 26 May 2019 as Liberal Senator for South Australia Anne Rushton. However, there is no mention of that title in her official parliamentary profile to date. 

Morrison has also decided that settlement services for refugees and humanitarian migrants are being transferred from the Social Services portfolio to the Home Affairs portfolio, giving the Minister for Home Affairs and Liberal MP for Dickson Peter Dutton control of every aspect of the lives of those seeking asylum or resettlement in Australia.

These and other changes are set out below........

Commonwealth of Australia: Administrative Arrangements Order Summary of changes, 29 May 2019 by clarencegirl on Scribd

https://www.scribd.com/document/411837160/Commonwealth-of-Australia-Administrative-Arrangements-Order-Summary-of-changes-29-May-2019

A federal budget for hopeless optimists was delivered by the Morrison Government on 2 April 2019

https://youtu.be/C64ZC-0Oju4

This was Australian treasurer and Liberal MP for Kooyong Josh Frydenberg delivering his first budget speech on 2 April 2019:

Tonight, I announce that the budget is back in the black and Australia is back on track.

For the first time in 12 years, our nation is again paying its own way….

John Howard and Peter Costello paid off Labor’s debt. And tonight the Morrison government sets a path to do it again, without increasing taxes.

This matters because over the last year the interest bill on the national debt was $18bn.

And this was in a low interest rate environment.

This is money that could have built 500 schools or a world-class hospital in each state and territory.

We are reducing the debt and this interest bill.

Not through higher taxes, but by responsible budget management and by growing the economy.

In the actual budget papers he asserts that:

Net debt in 2019-20 is expected to be $361 billion, representing 18 per cent of GDP. By 2022-23, net debt is expected to decline to $326.1 billion (14.4 per cent of GDP). Net debt is then projected to be eliminated over the medium term (2029-30)

So whose debt is Frydenberg complaing about and why is the economic furture so suddenly rosy?

At the end of the month in 2013 in which Tony Abbott became Prime Minister of Australia the gross national debt stood at est. $220.67 billion and net national debt was $174.55 billion. At the time net national debt was in the vicinity of 13% of GDP.

By 2 April 2019 the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government had raised the gross national debt to $534.42 billion. 

That's more than double the national debt left by the previous Labor federal government.

Frydenberg is predicting that gross national will rise to $627.26 billion by end of June 2019 with net national debt coming in at $373.47 billion and net debt predicted to come in at 19.2% of GDP by end of June. 

By 30 June the federal government will have paid $18.15 billion in interest on this debt in the 2018-19 financial year.

I don't know about anyone else but to me it definitely looks as though the Liberal-Nationals Coalition governments have well and truly contribted to the national debt in the last five and a haf years.

According to the 2019-20 Budget that Frydenberg just delivered gross national debt is expected to rise for the next three financial years while at the same time it is hoped that net national debt will decrease.

When it comes to national debt a net decrease in the debt does not always mean the actual government debt is falling - it simply means that the government of the day expects to have enough assets and income to honour the total debt if the entire amount was theoretically called in by the debtors.

However, Frydenberg predicts that both net national debt and interest that the gross debt attracts will fall over the next four financial years, despite federal government expenses increasing and expected tax receipts (including GST receipts) being revised down by $26 billion over those same four years.

Frydenberg also says the Morrison Government will deliver an underlying cash balance of $7.1 billion by 30 June next year even though that underlying cash balance is $4.1 billion in deficit this year. To do that the Treasurer has to pull $11.2 billion out of his back pocket in the next fourteen months.

Months in which it is committed to delivering the cash splash it has included in this pre-election budget.

An ordinary voter like myself has to ask: Where's the money coming from to supposedly get the government books back into the black?

The Morrison Government must be privately asking itself the same question as Budget Statement 7 only gives that government a 70 per cent chance of being able to bring in a $7.1 billion suplus this coming financial year

Budget 2019-20 papers can be found here.

NOTE:

Only one item in the Morrison Government 2019-20 budget is likely to be passed on 3 April 2019 before the Australian Parliament is dissolved to meet the required timeline to issue  writs for the federal election. This means that all the budget promises made by Frydenberg are on the never never and if the Coalition Government wins that election it may change some budget details come 30 June.