Abbott Government Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook 2013-14: no responsibility taken, excuses scattered like confetti, strong hints that it's the poor who will be paying the government bill

Joe Hockey spinning on live television at the National Press Club on 17 December 2013

Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey needs to grow a spine, find a political and social conscience and begin acting like an adult before he loses the nation's excellent credit rating, drives away investment, destroys industry and causes a recession with his juvenile point-scoring and loose talk.

Taking responsibility for his first 90 days in office (not the fictional 100 days) would be a good start.

On 3 September 2013 Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey stated that the Federal Labor Government was borrowing an average $83 million per day.

By 17 December 2013 the Federal Liberal-Nationals Coalition Government was borrowing on average an est. $216 million plus per day.

In the MID-YEAR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK 2013-14 (MYEFO) released on 17 December 2013 Hockey admits that an increase in Abbott Government borrowings has increased Australia’s national debt:

* The increase in the expected level of net debt since the 2013 PEFO primarily reflects a higher issuance of CGS owing to an increase in the financing requirement, which is partly negated by higher yields (interest rates) than were assumed at the 2013 PEFO.

* The main factor contributing to the increase in net debt is the higher expected issuance of CGS relative to the 2013 PEFO of around $60 billion in face value terms as a result of the increased financing requirement. This is partially offset by revaluation of the projected CGS on issue of around $9 billion owing to an increase in expected yields and hence a decrease in the market value of CGS.

According to Hockey net government debt now stands at $191.5 billion in 2013-14.

Gross debt is of course higher and currently is in excess of $304.5 billion – with $216 billion of this amount being added to the total by the present Abbott Government between 18 September and 17 December 2013.

Impacting MYEFO is the inescapable fact that the Abbott Government has increased federal government spending over that outlined in its pre-election Fiscal Budget Impact of Federal Coalition Policies document, which in its turn also indicated levels of revenue which the Coalition was willing to forgo to meet its ideological requirements.

Some of the more significant components of the revenue write down apparent in MYEFO are ideologically rather than fiscally based.

The biggest one-off spending item in 2013-14 was the unplanned $8.8 billion it gifted to the Reserve Bank, a sum which coincidentally comprises over half of the budget deficit blow-out Hockey is complaining about.

Again according to Hockey, since the Economic Statement released in August 2013 the budget deficit has blown out from the predicted $30.1 billion 2013-14 deficit under Labor to a  $47 billion deficit this year under the Abbott Government.  That's a $16.9 billion difference in the bottom line primarily flowing on from Coalition policy and/or economic decisions.

However, the average voter wouldn't know it from Hockey's blaming Labor rhetoric.

BACKGROUND

The Pre-Election Economic Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) produced in August by The Treasury, for the information of all political parties and candidates prior to the 7 September 2013 election day.

MEDIA REACTION

The Sydney Morning Herald 17 December 2013:

How on Earth did we convince ourselves this bunch would be miles better at fixing the budget than the last lot?

Joe Hockey claims his midyear budget update is an honest assessment of the state of fiscal affairs he inherited from Labor. It isn't.

Rather, it is an attempt to lower expectations about the speed and ease with which the Coalition will be able to get the budget back on track.

He won't be able to achieve it for many years - he's not saying when - and not without significant and painful, but as yet unidentified, cuts in government spending. In short, he is unlikely to be able to do it much faster than Labor would have. What's likely to differ is who will bear most pain.

Labor would have erred in the direction of higher taxes, particularly on the better-off. Hockey has ruled out higher taxes and is hinting at cuts in government spending on ''welfare, education and health''.

Contrast this grim slog with all the Coalition said in opposition about the deficit being purely the result of Labor mismanagement.

This time last year Tony Abbott and Hockey were promising to deliver a budget surplus in each year of their first term. By the election campaign the return to surplus had been delayed until the first year after the next election.
Now even that is in doubt....

The Australian 18 December 2013:

JOE Hockey now has to stand up.

After gaslighting the Australian public for weeks about Labor's mess, the Treasurer has produced a horror outlook for the economy complete with the potential for a decade of deficits and a Devil's debt number of $666 billion.

Slowing growth, rising unemployment, a further decline in tax revenue and a sharper drop in mining investment are all wider economic challenges facing an Abbott government wedged between curtailing government spending and maintaining consumer and business confidence in the face of growing uncertainty. Without drastic action, the Treasurer has warned of ongoing budget deficits, rising debt and no chance of an income tax cut for 10 years....

But, having laid the blame himself with Labor, even allowing for the Coalition's own responsibility for part of the post-election deficit blowout, Hockey has to accept that he has indeed "drawn a line in the sand".

He must start providing solutions, no matter how tough....

Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey in danger of becoming a walking talking sovereign risk

The current national government debt ceiling is $300 billion and, on 13 November 2013 the House of Representatives passed the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Amendment Bill 2013 increasing the Treasurer’s standing borrowing authority in the Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Act from $300 billion to $500 billion. Subsequently the Senate sent the bill back down with the amount amended to $400 billion.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize that Australia’s national debt is not going to grow beyond $400 billion before mid-2016, if the Abbott Government is as good a financial manager as it promised it would be.

At present government borrowings stand at an estimated $292 billion, with $22 billion of that being borrowed by the Abbott Government since 18 September 2013.

Since the Senate acted, Treasurer Joe Hockey has been publicly threatening a Tea Party-style hissy fit which would allow government services to stop and to bring about “massive cuts” if Labor does not support the Coalition's bill to raise the debt ceiling.

Mr. Hockey apparently finds nothing amiss in making threats which have the potential to damage Australia’s reputation.

If he keeps on in this manner foreign/domestic investors, business and consumers may react negatively.

If this happens Mr. Hockey will have become a walking sovereign risk and cost the economy many billions of dollars.

As the Business Spectator opined on 15 November:

The national interest, however, would be better served by Hockey getting out of campaign mode and into governing mode. Asking for more debt next year would be a minor political embarrassment (and let’s not forget that it most likely won’t be needed), but in the meantime we would look less that the scared kid of Asia hiding under the stairs. 

That Mr. Hockey’s ego-driven threats are hypocritical and a political ploy can be clearly seen when one looks back to May 2012, when the former Labor Government announced its intention to raise the debt ceiling from $250 billion to $300 billion the Coalition was not happy and attempted to block this increase:

If you do raise the debt ceiling, you have a rather large train rolling off the edge of a rather large cliff. [(Leader of the Nationals in the Senate and Member of the Opposition’s Shadow Ministry Barnaby Joyce, Financial Review, 14 May 2012]

Now they are saying they are living within their means but are also saying, 'Just in case, please give us an increase in the credit card limit to $300 billion.' It does not sound like a lot if you say it quickly but it is a hell of a lot of money that Australians have to repay. Enough is enough....

The government must appropriately reflect the significance of increasing the limit on the face value of stock and securities that can be on issue under the Treasurer's standard borrowing authority. The Treasurer must then make the case to the Australian people that Labor deserves the right to increase the credit card limit. The Treasurer must explain why he cannot use the Loan (Temporary Revenue Deficits) Act 1953. I asked him a question in this place. He could not answer it. So, to that effect, and I move the following second reading amendment:

That all words after “That” be omitted with a view to substituting the following words: “whilst not declining to give the bill a second reading, the House requests the Government to vary the resolution in relation to the Appropriation bills agreed by the House on 8 May 2012 to permit amendments to be moved and debated to Appropriation Bill (No. 2) 2012-13.”

This is the very least that the public deserves......

We will quiz the AOFM and the Department of the Treasury at estimates. We want to get to the bottom of exactly why this sneaky government is trying to avoid proper scrutiny on the debt limit. [Liberal MP and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, Hansard, 21 May 2012]

Acting Prime Minister, does  the government view the increase in the nation's credit card limit from $250 billion to $300 billion as a very serious issue or no big

deal?...

This is a budget with the debt issue, this increase in debt from $250 billion to $300 billion debt ceiling.... [Liberal MP and Shadow Minister for Finance, Deregulation and Debt Reduction Andrew Robb, Hansard, 21 May 2013] 

Joe Hockey's current belligerence is also a far cry from his attitude just five days after the federal election when he told voters: You can go forward and spend your hearts out because we're going to have a good Christmas

* Photograph found at Google Images

Where is Australian Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey sourcing his financial advice?

By the end of October 2013 the Abbott Government was borrowing an est. $265 million per day and it continues to borrow at a frenetic pace. 

At the same time it is moving away from the budget measures outlined in its September 2013 costing table and has blown out the 2013 budget deficit by an estimated $10 billion.

ABC News 9 November 2013:

The Budget Monitor from Deloitte Access Economics..... has raised concerns about whether the Government will take unpopular decisions to improve the budget outcome and return to surplus within the promised 2016/17 timeframe.

The assessment has forecast a budget deficit of $39.7 billion for this financial year, almost $10 billion higher than the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) predicted.

The PEFO estimated a deficit of $30 billion, but since then the new Coalition Government has scrapped some tax windfalls and handed $9 billion to the Reserve Bank.

Deloitte's Chris Richardson says those decisions have significantly contributed to the size of the deficit.

"That is a cost to the budget, it's all fallen this year. It's a lot of dollars," he said.

"You might eventually see those dollars head back to the Government but it is a really rotten budget deficit this year."

Hockey accused of punting with taxpayer dollars

Is Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey taking a leaf out of Peter Costello’s game plan and 'cooking' the nation’s books....

The Sydney Morning Herald 29 October 2013:

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has effectively confirmed that Joe Hockey is blowing several hundred million dollars in an attempt to make his performance as Treasurer look good. Never underestimate the vanity of politicians.

Forget a few thousand here and there on the cost of weddings and Cairns “meetings”, Hockey’s petty budget politics will cost tax payers about $300 million over the next 12 months and another couple of hundred million the next year....

The RBA certainly didn’t ask for Hockey’s $8.8 billion capital injection and didn’t think it was necessary.

That’s the extra $8.8 billion the government is having to borrow and pay interest on while blowing out “Labor’s” 2013-14 budget deficit by the same amount....

But don’t take my word for it. Here’s how Stevens explains Hockey’s borrowing binge:

“The high exchange rate has also had a significant impact on the Reserve Bank's own balance sheet. It led to a decline in the value of the Bank's foreign assets and hence a diminution in the Bank's capital, to a level well below that judged by the Reserve Bank Board to be prudent. This has been a topic of some interest of late. Our annual reports have made quite clear over several years now that, while this rundown in capital in the face of a very large valuation loss was exactly what such reserves were designed for, we considered it prudent to rebuild the capital at the earliest opportunity. It has been clear that the Bank saw a strong case not to pay a dividend to the Commonwealth during this period, preferring instead to retain earnings, so far as possible, to increase the Bank's capital. That rebuilding could in fact have taken quite a few years, given the low level of earnings......

So “Labor’s” deficit blows out to about $40 billion this year, but Hockey’s heroic efforts to reduce the debt in the years ahead will be enhanced by a rich stream of dividends from the RBA. The last time the Aussie had a sharp fall, the RBA paid the government a dividend of more than $5 billion. Trader Joe is playing the forex market with borrowed money.