Australian Federal Election 2016: Nationals MP Kevin Hogan and suicide numbers in his electorate

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Summary of Findings 2014:

Among those aged 15 to 44, the leading causes of death were Intentional self-harm (suicide), Accidental poisonings (including drug overdoses) and Land transport accidents.

In 2014 the NSW suicide rate for males between the ages of 15-24 years was 14.1 and for females in the same age grouping the suicide rate was 5.4.

Excerpt from North Coast Voices post, 8 December 2014:

By 2013 New South Wales had a suicide rate of 9.1 per 100,000 people for 2009-2013.

In 2012-13 hospitalisation of young people aged between 15 and 24 years for intentional self-harm was significantly higher than the state average in Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour local government areas and, on par with the state average in Kyogle, Lismore, Tweed and Richmond Valley local government areas.

Excerpt from ABS media release, 31 March 2015:

Suicide was once again the leading cause of death for Australian's aged 15 to 44. Suicide accounted for 2,520 deaths in 2013 at a standardised death rate of 10.7 per 100,000 people. The median age at death for suicides is lower than for many other causes at 44.5 years of age. As a result, suicide accounted for over 85,000 years of life lost making it the leading cause of premature death in Australia. [my red bolding]

This was  Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan as reported by The Daily Examiner on 19 June 2015:

DESPITE a small number of dedicated youth mental health services in the Clarence Valley, the message from the Federal Government and experts is the region does not require one of the proposed 15 new headspace sites.

Member for Page Kevin Hogan told The Daily Examiner representatives from youth mental health service headspace had been in consultations with Health Minister Sussan Ley, with the Federal Government agreeing to further funding.

"The Federal Government has funded the establishment of new headspace sites to take total number of sites up to 100," Mr Hogan said.

But it is unlikely the Clarence Valley will be the recipient of one of the new headspace sites with Mr Hogan explaining we already had adequate services on the ground.

The Daily Examiner, 12 August 2015:

"The Clarence Valley needs more mental youth services and I will be campaigning for such," Mr Hogan said.

This is the situation in the Clarence Valley section of Hogan’s electorate in March 2016, as reported by ABC News:

Eleven youth suicides in 12 months have prompted a series of crisis meetings in the northern New South Wales city of Grafton.

The deaths have all occurred in the Clarence Valley region and include a 17-year-old girl in the past fortnight.

Meeting organiser Janita Cooper, a mother of three boys, said the Clarence Valley was a tight-knit community where everyone knew someone effected by suicide.

"The youth situation is out of control; it's like a rollercoaster ride," Ms Cooper said.

"The children grieve for one person and a few weeks later, it's another child."

The community's first meeting was held on Monday night with 150 people in attendance.

A working party was formed to campaign for more mental health services in Grafton, including a headspace centre, and another meeting was planned for the end of March.

A search of Hansard reveals that Kevin Hogan has never risen to his feet in the House of Representatives to plead for increased mental health services in the Clarence Valley.

In August 2015 when he was telling valley communities that he would be campaigning for more mental health services for youth, the only things he mentioned to his fellow MPs in the House were the Clarence Valley Business Excellence Awards (and what a great night he had in Yamba) and the Clarence Valley’s share of road funding.

Nor can I find any mention to date in the media that Kevin Hogan has personally been in contact with either state or federal health ministers in relation to this very serious health issue.

Apart from attempting to take some credit for the Northern NSW 2015-2018 Mental Health Integration Plan, which flows from the NSW Government strategic mental health plan, the current Federal Nationals Member for Page has done the bare minimum to date with regard to mental health services in his electorate.

Australian Federal Election 2016: John Stone points out that Malcolm Turnbull is the same as Tony Abbott

Turnbull & Abbott morph courtesy of 
Robbo

Former Shadow Minister for Finance and Leader of the National Party in the Senate (1987-1990) and former secretary to the Treasury (1979-1984), John Stone, is not a happy man.

He has joined a growing number in Liberal-Nationals ranks who are publicly pointing out the disappointing co-joined nature of those political bedfellows, Prime Minister Malcolm Bligh Turnbull and former prime minister Anthony John Abbott MP.

This excerpt is from an article he wrote in the Australian Financial Review on 7 March 2016:

Before the successful conspiracy against him, Abbott had made four decisions. One, under no circumstances would the Coalition raise the GST. Two, it would not meddle with the basic taxation principle that investment income qualifies for deductibility of costs incurred (so-called "negative gearing"). Three, established superannuation arrangements would remain. And four, he would take income tax cuts to 2016's election.

Neither Abbott nor his lazy Treasurer Hockey mentioned that the fourth undertaking could be achieved only through significant spending cuts. On those, Hockey's 2015-16 budget was virtually silent…..

in September 2015, Turnbull spoke eloquently about our needing "a new economic narrative", were there grounds for hoping for a government that would now mend its ways?

Well, no, apparently. After five months of dithering, Turnbull has emulated Abbott's first decision. He will arrive soon at Abbott's second decision. He and Treasurer Scott Morrison are still havering over Abbott's third decision. Both agree with his fourth decision. But as for the spending cuts without which that can't happen responsibly, they are silent.

On usurping the prime ministership Turnbull was endowed, justifiably or not, with plenty of political capital. Rather than expend that capital by taking an axe to what was now his government's wasteful spending he has chosen instead, in John Howard's recent words, to "dissipate it by sitting around and doing nothing".

Let's see, come July, what the electorate thinks of that.

When you like neither horse in the local election race....

A number of Queensland voters in the March 2016 Sunshine Coast local government election obviously felt the choice before them was between bad and badder - so they chose baddest.

Donald John Trump, candidate in the US Republican pre-selection race 

Google Images

DONALD Trump has just secured one per cent of the vote in Sunshine Council's Division Eight.

The outcome for Mr Trump was almost half that achieved in Division Three by David Wilson who had an ambitious plan to build an Opera House that failed to cut through with voters.

Triumphant Division Eight candidate, returning councillor Jason O'Pray, said his scrutineers had been surprised to see that were simply heaps and heaps votes recorded for the US Republican front-runner.

Last night there was some speculation Mr Trump would likely espouse the building of a "wall of Mexico" between the Sunshine Coast and Noosa as part of his platform.

The votes for Mr Trump were cast as informal by voters unable to make a decision about the two candidates - Jason O'Pray and Adriana Adamska-Bland.

[Sunshine Coast Daily, 19 March 2016]

Greens Candidate For Cowper - "Implications Draft North Coast Plan by NSW Government Department of Planning and Environment"

Media Release from Carol Vernon, Greens candidate for Cowper:

Implications Draft North Coast Plan by NSW Government Department of Planning and Environment

March 10, 2016

Julie Lyford, Lyne, and Carol Vernon, Cowper, Greens candidates on the Mid North Coast, are united in their concerns for aspects of the recently released Draft North Coast Regional Plan.

"Cobbled together, more for political reasons than for genuine planning reasons, this ‘draft plan’ is already out-dated and full of flaws. Yet it may be utilised by a power-hungry Baird-Grant government to bully local councils into planning decisions that will have life changing impacts on residents,” they said.

“The plan covers a wide ranging area of the state and includes lower mid north coast and mid north coast locations.

‘The Draft North Coast Regional Plan (Draft Plan) applies to 13 councils - Tweed, Byron, Ballina, Lismore, Richmond Valley, Kyogle, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour, Bellingen, Nambucca, Kempsey, Port Macquarie–Hastings and Greater Taree.’

“When considering the locations and councils in this area, it is difficult to see how a uniform approach to planning for the future can be applied. While the plan has items of merit, other items are cause for concern.

"The first goal in the plan outlines five comprehensive directions related to the natural environment and productive landscapes. Four of the 'directions' talk about protection of environment, productive farmland and water catchments and adapting for climate change, while the fifth talks about 'delivering economic growth through access to mineral and energy resources.' One wonders what strong safeguards around this last 'direction' will deliver the 'protections' outlined in the previous four.”

‘The North Coast also includes areas of the Clarence-Moreton Basin, which has potential coal seam gas resources that may be able to support the development and growth of new industries and provide economic benefits for the region.’ P 28

 “Although the plan includes maps showing where gas exploration licences have been bought back there is no statement committing the government to a ban on the future exploration and drilling for coal seam gas in the same areas, or elsewhere.”

‘The NSW Department of Industry is mapping coal and coal seam gas resources in the region.’  P 31

“It is tremendously concerning that the Baird-Grant government obviously continues to plan for a coal seam gas and coal industry on the mid north and north coast.

"Community action in recent years, from Gloucester to Bentley, has overwhelmingly demonstrated that there is no social licence for unconventional gas and destructive mining activity in the area.

“While it is pleasing that renewable energy resources have been at least noted, there are no listed plans to really develop and exploit their use, especially as a source of employment.

“Are the listed planning requirements, to address environmental preservation, sea level rise and tidal surges mandatory? We hope so.

“But how much of the plan will be mandated by Sydney based planners? Is the Baird-Grant government ‘Fit for the Future’ approach linked to this plan? Will local councils lose even more planning autonomy?

“Some material is already dated, for example, the siting of some Pacific Highway service facility locations and much is omitted, such as the planning for new rail routes.

“The improved Pacific Highway is already fast filling with traffic. Before long it will present like the horrific, crowded, multiple lane approaches to Brisbane city. We should already be considering freight alternatives, however, a heavy emphasis on road freight is to be expected from the coalition state and federal governments. Pacific Highway freight hubs are discussed but connections to rail freight are obviously not anticipated.  Rail freight and rail corridors are almost non-existent in this plan.

“The plan concentrates on land use because of its origin but a plan that ignores our digital future and is so wedded to fossil fuel resource development and road transport is already an anachronism.”

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/~/media/Files/DPE/Plans-and-policies/draft-north-coast-regional-plan-2016.ashx

A reader bites back at Northern Star editorial style

The Northern Star, 23 February 2016:

Good with the bad

Good editorial David (NS 18/2), Your unwavering support for Kevin Hogan is touching. You may have some work to do convincing readers that you don't mind what political persuasion a politician is. But you do deserve credit for publishing letters criticising Kevin Hogan and the Nationals.

The Nationals are a strong force in this area, although I often wonder why because

they promise much and deliver little. I`ve lived in this area nearly 30 years so I`m

almost a local, in that time the Nationals have had an almost exclusive hold on these Northern Rivers seats, only with short disruptions when Labor`s Harry Woods and Neville Newell were elected in Page and Richmond.

When Justine Elliott and Janelle Saffin were elected in 2004 and 2007 all hell broke

loose, suddenly major infrastructure projects that were ignored for years by the

Nationals were being built.

Don Page lobbied the Howard Government long and hard for the Ballina and Alstonville bypasses, his National Party mate Ian Causley repeatedly failed to secure any funding. Safe seats; why bother, (not anymore).

When Janelle Saffin was elected these two projects were immediately funded and

built.

Kevin Hogan also made the good people from the Ballina Marine Rescue Tower wait  for over two years in inadequate facilities just so he could roll out the pork barrel closer to an election.

So David, if you think such disrespectful and cynical behaviour is OK and Kevin Hogan is on a roll, fine. If not how about some balance in your editorials and comment on issues where Kevin and his government are letting the local area down.

Keith Duncan

Pimlico

A look at those the Liberal-Nationals Coalition labels "eco-terrorists"

https://youtu.be/lD9ArZTg8RQ

NSW Minister for Industry, Resources and Energy Anthony Roberts,  media release, 7 March 2016:

NEW LAWS PROTECT WORKERS AND COMMUNITIES FROM ILLEGAL PROTESTS The NSW Government today announced legislation will be introduced to the NSW Parliament to increase enforcement powers with respect to illegal protests. The Inclosed Lands, Crimes and Law Enforcement Amendment (Interference) Bill 2016 delivers on the NSW Government’s commitment to ensure that the right to peaceful protest is balanced with the need to ensure public safety, the safety of workers, the protection of communities and lawful business activity. Minister for Industry, Resources and Energy, Anthony Roberts, said the reforms enable Police to take a more proactive approach to managing and prosecuting illegal activity. “The NSW Government makes clear its support for the right to legal protests conducted in accordance with the Summary Offences Act 1988,” Mr Roberts said. “However unlawful activities put the safety of protesters and workers at risk and are costly for businesses and the public. “Communities also suffer, with the deployment of Police resources reducing the capacity to respond to critical incidents.” Key reforms include:

* Creating the offence of ‘aggravated unlawful entry on inclosed lands’, with a maximum penalty of $5,500 under the Inclosed Lands Protection Act 1901, including amendments relating to illegal protests which occur on mine sites;

* Extending the meaning of ‘mine’ to include petroleum workplaces, in connection with the existing indictable offence of intentionally or recklessly interfering with a mine under the Crimes Act 1900;

* Additional search and seizure powers for Police to deal with people who intend to ‘lock-on’ to equipment or structures for the purpose of interfering with a business or undertaking, and that is likely to be used in a way that poses a serious risk to the safety of any person, under the Law Enforcement (Powers and Responsibilities) Act 2002; and

* Removing limitations to allow Police to give directions in public places to prevent obstructions of persons or traffic for a demonstration, protest, procession or organised assembly under the Law Enforcement (Powers and Responsibilities) Act 2002. For more information visit: www.resourcesandenergy.nsw.gov.au.

The departmental website was not so coy as Minister Roberts:

What are the maximum penalties?

The maximum penalty for the aggravated offence will be $5,500. It will apply in relation to land on which a business or undertaking is being conducted and where the offenders, while on the lands, interfere with, or attempt or intend to interfere with, the conduct of the business or undertaking or do anything that gives rise to a serious risk to the safety of the person or any other person on those lands.

The Bill amends the Crimes Act 1900 to extend the meaning of ‘mine’ in connection with the existing indictable offence of intentionally or recklessly interfering with a mine. This carries a maximum penalty of imprisonment of seven years. [my red bolding]

This bill was passed by both houses of the NSW Parliament on 15 March 2016.

NSW Northern Rivers communities are watching these draconian measures with interest and, I suspect, a firm resolve to stand their ground in any future disputes over inappropriate or environmentally devastating mining or other development proposals. 

Just because it is beautiful......(7)

Peter Solness illuminates and photographs Aboriginal rock carvings, Bundeena region NSW

Australian Federal Election 2016: State of the Internet

By February 2016 NBN Co was 65,268 "construction completions" short of its planned budgeted target of 94,273 fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) installations and behind by 740,000 
premises connections, with connection costs to each house or business also blowing out according to an internal company report obtained by Fairfax Media:

"The report, which was never intended for public disclosure, reveals the extent to which the more than $46 billion project has drifted off course, mainly during the time when Mr Turnbull was in direct control as communications minister - the portfolio he held before replacing Tony Abbott as Prime Minister in September……

Under the heading "Commercial in Confidence: Scale the Deployment Program", the report outlines a plethora of faults, including that delays in power approvals and construction are being caused by electricity companies which account for 38,537 premises or 59 per cent of overall slippages against the target.

Another 30 per cent of delays are down to material shortages and a further 11 per cent are attributed to completion reviews.

"Construction completions currently sits at 29K against the corporate budget of 94K," the report states.

"Gap-to-target has increased from 49,183 to 65,268 at week ending February 12.

"Construction completions gap can be attributed to 3 main issues: power, supply, and completions under review."

Also noted in the report is  a rise in the cost per connection of design and construction, which has now reached $1366, compared with the target price of $1114 - a 23 per cent increase."  

Image of Telstra communications pit (Sydney) from Delimiter, 1 March 2016

By now I imagine we are all used to images of aging sections of Telstra's copper network (such as the one above) when people discuss Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Bligh Turnbull's new and 'innovative' National Broadband Network (NBN).

What we are not accustomed to are images of NBN's actual blunders with Fibre To The Node (FTTN). Planning and operational blunders which appear to be at least a partial cause of the treacle-slow roll out of Malcolm's ill-thought out hybrid scheme.

Examples in South Australia sent to North Coast Voices by a resident of that state. All comments under images are his:

 "The houses near these nodes all have underground power and phone lines. It would have been quicker and cheaper to run fibre."

"NBN running kilometres of new conduit and 200 pair 4 gauge copper cable (left) and nodes side by side with another 190 metres away."

"There is a node to the left of this pillar. This is all 200 pair copper cable. Cheaper, faster sooner. BULLSHIT."

"Generator​ at Murray Bridge, close to power"

"Strathalbyn​​ - Power on both sides of the road and they were running a generator hired from Able Hire many months.The tower was laying in the grass for six months so why wasn't the power ready to connect from day one?" 

As for those NBN costings:

A cable with 4 fibre optic fibres costs 70 cents per metre if bought in large quantities. A cable with 4 fibre cores costs $2.00 per metre in small quantities. These prices are easily verified.
Householders have to pay for the whole footpath, the whole gutter, half the road, sewer, water-main and fire points, gas pipe, storm-water pipes, telephone wires and conduits and power poles and lines or underground power. This is an enormous cost. Contrast this with a relatively small piece of fibre optic cable that is only going a short distance to the Optical Splitter that connects blocks of 32 houses, the cost per connection would be minor, only the cost of a few metres of fibre cable to connect between streets. You would soon have a town or suburb connected for minimal cost.
Currently, when connections are made using copper wire, these copper wires that go from a house to an exchange may be up to eight kilometres in length, which is sixteen kilometres of copper for the two wires. This is a massive cost compared to fibre optic cable.
Landowners with large properties have run their own copper phone lines on top of fences in the past, but distance can be a significant problem with copper. Fibre optic cables can be reliably run 200 kilometres without amplifiers. Also electric fences can cause interference on nearby copper lines. Fibre optic cables are not affected in this way. I have been assured by Peter Ferris of NBNCo that large property holders will be able to cheaply obtain and run their own fibre cables and then easily obtain a connection to the network. [South Australian resident, 2010]

A South Australian resident just seven kilometres by line of sight from the Adelaide central business district has been quoted $150,000 to upgrade to a National Broadband Network fibre connection. Read more: 
http://www.itnews.com.au/news/first-nbn-fibre-extension-comes-in-150000-312027#ixzz42fHnUN24

The NBN access lucky dip:

After attending a Community meeting yesterday, we were advised that it appears likely we would not be included in the Fibre rollout, as it appears to finish at the council border, not extending to the end of the road (a distance of about 1km).

They (NBN Community meeting people) happily advised that we would receive Fixed Wireless coverage when it was installed.

The problem with the Wireless solution is that none of the properties have direct LoS to any tower where the Wireless would be installed…..

What's left?

NBN Satellite. To be within sight of the CBD (~7km as the crow flies) and have to resort to using a Satellite service for broadband is just crazy.

FTTN would even be better, as the Node would be at most 1km from the last property (if installed at the end of the planned Fibre rollout on the affected road), however, I dont believe FTTN is an option being considered by NBNCo. Read more: http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1959073

Hills dwellers are not strangers to the vagaries of technology – thanks to the terrain we find so beautiful.
Many residents have tales of having to stand out on the verandah in the cold in order to make mobile phone calls.
Then there are those Cudlee Creek residents who live 15 minutes from Tea Tree Plaza but can't watch the local news because they were relegated to a satellite service at the digital television switch over.
But this region might discover just how off the grid some of its population might be when the NBN Co finishes rolling out the national superfast broadband infrastructure program.
The difference between the "haves" (fibre to the node) and the "have a fraction of what's available" (wireless or satellite) might be the difference of only 100m, depending on where your home is located in this region.
That might not seem so important now but in the future, when reliable access to superfast broadband is considered the norm and the copper wire system is obsolete, residents might find themselves severely disadvantaged.
If you lived in Andamooka in remote SA, you might be more willing to accept that you can only have access to satellite.
But if you live at Piccadilly like Stephen Birrell, and you did your homework before you moved your international business into the Hills, you wouldn't be happy to learn that fibre to the node is too difficult, contrary to initial advice.
Mr Birrell has the means to buy the technology he needs to make his business work, or he can move his company to the US.
His argument is that access to the NBN is being paid for by taxpayers as a basic infrastructure service but a disproportionately high number of taxpayers will receive a significantly slower and more expensive mode of broadband delivery based on geography.
It's why he and his neighbors have started the action group Gully Road Digital Divide to effect change in the NBN roll-out.
Whether the group brings about change in Mayo in an election year remains to be seen.

The cost and complexity of fixed services are prohibitive in some areas but if Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull wants Australia to be the country of innovation, perhaps the criteria need to be revisited or at least debated by the community. [The Courier, 9 March 2016]

Founder & Chief Medical Officer, Wellend Health, Adelaide, Australia

All this paints a poor picture of Malcolm Bligh Turnbull's grand plan for an 'innovative and agile' nation with citizens and corporations connected to each other and the world.

The situation is all the more frustrating when one realizes that NBN Co. has been sitting on an alternative to the optic fibre currently in use - skinny fibre.

Of the skinny fibre trials conducted so far CEO of NBN Bill Morrow has stated: 

The findings are encouraging. Relative to cost, we were able to reduce the cost per premises by roughly $450 per premise. And while this is early, it's still significant. And relative to time, we also believe that we could shave four weeks off the time of the build.

Although to date the roll out remit given to NBN Co. by Malcolm Turnbull apparently would not allow it the flexibility to do so.

Is it any wonder that the internal company nickname for the roll  out of the NBN Mark II is Operation Clusterf*ck.

Which leads to another potential problem - the Coalition's Fibre To The Node (FTTN) apparently continues the current ADSL status quo for many Internet users, which is an electricity dependent Internet connection.

What happens to these FTTN connections (and phone connections consumers are/will be paying for in their home or business plans via their Internet Provider) during scheduled and unplanned power outages¹?

NBN Co. obligingly informed us in 2014 that we would need to order its Power Supply Unit Battery Backup Service (which includes a standard battery type used in many different systems) because we will not be able to even dial 000 in a power outage.

Which is definitely a retrograde step, because currently if an ADSL connection is knocked out by a power cut at least the landline phone still functions normally.

This question about power outages was asked in March 2016 by that South Australian resident who commented:

“I made several calls to NBN Co to finally realise that I know more about their technology than the help consultants.

Will my phone and internet work if the power goes out? No, you will need to have a charged mobile phone if there's a power blackout.

I then asked the question about why they have batteries in the nodes, if the 'phones are not going to work in a power failure and was told that they hope that they will work.

What rot.

I also asked why the FTTN system will be running slower for the first 18 months and they couldn't tell me.

I know that you can't have the ADSL and VSDL systems working at full power because one system is interfering with the other. The VSDL interferes with ADSL.
Please see: http://blog.jxeeno.com/nbn-fttn-limited-to-121-mbps-during-transition/”

Footnote

1. Examples of electricity blackouts in 2015:

January  Geelong region storm cause power outages across city ...

February Power outages leave northwest Victoria in the dark ...

March  Wildlife causes power outage…1,455 customers

April  55,000 homes in the Hunter still without power

May  Power restored after outages affect 23,000 homes in ... - ABC

June  Newport crash triggers power outage, house fire, traffic ...

July Carnarvon planned outages in July 2015 - outages will occur from 9 July- 16 July across multiple locations

August Power outage leaves 2500 north Canberra homes in the dark

September Power outage affects 30000 homes and businesses ... - ABC

Lightning, hail and damaging wind hit Brisbane as severe ...affecting more than 1,000 homes and businesses

October Brisbane power cut: Fire causes outages | The Courier-Mail

November Power outage hits thousands in northeast Brisbane suburbs ...

December Power outage in Kurnell: NSW State Emergency Service ...

Turnbull was "given the opportunity of a lifetime and in five to six months it appears he has blown it"

Amid all the election timing speculation, former Victorian Liberal premier Jeff Kennet, a strong critic of Tony Abbott, is highly critical of the current Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.

The Australian, 10 March 2016:

There are only seven Saturdays Malcolm Turnbull can realistically choose to send the nation to the polls.

Football grand finals, the Olympics, school holidays and constitutional reasons mean that if the Prime Minister passes on holding a double-dissolution election on July 2, the only workable dates to choose are August 27, September 3, 10, 17 or 24 and October 15.

The great prime ministerial ­advantage in an election year is having the power to name the day to face your destiny and Mr Turnbull yesterday teased journalists about the “fascinating sport” of speculation, saying: “I’m not going to give you the election date.”

Yet his options are squeezed by a unique combination of Senate consequences and a deal with the Greens on Senate voting reform that means the new rules the ­government desperately wants to use will not take effect until July 1.

While some ministers believe July 2 is “locked in”, some say Mr Turnbull is keeping open the option of a regular half-Senate poll. The first available date is August 6 but that coincides with the opening ceremony of the Rio Olympics, which also makes an election for most of August problematic. Aug­ust 27 is the best option for the month after the Olympics finish.

September 3 is emerging as the favourite option if Mr Turnbull does not have a July 2 election. It is close to the anniversary of the 2013 election on September 7 and Mr Turnbull would not need to make a decision until August 1 allowing the early stages of the campaign to be during the Olympics, with a two-week blitz to polling day.

The other three Saturdays in September are a reasonable chance but there’s no possibility of an October 1 election as it clashes with the AFL grand final and the NRL grand final is the following day while October 8 risks being messy as it falls during school holidays. October 15 is the last realistic option for the Prime Minister, who would start to face claims he was afraid to face the people.

A double dissolution must be announced by May 11 for constitutional reasons but to take advantage of the new Senate rules the government needs the poll to be on July 2, meaning an official campaign period that would be 20 days longer than usual. While Assistant Science Minister Karen Andrews said yesterday a marathon seven-week-plus campaign could have “real positives” for the government and give it time to “explain what our vision for the future is”, others fear almost two months in winter could be high risk.

As Newspoll showed a slide in voter satisfaction with Mr Turnbull and the Coalition has lost its poll advantage from the start of the year to be deadlocked with Labor at 50-50 in two-party terms, Liberal elders have begun to sound the alarm. Jeff Kennett yesterday blasted Mr Turnbull, saying he was “given the opportunity of a lifetime and in five to six months it appears he has blown it”.

The former Victorian premier said Mr Turnbull had no plan for the future of the country and took over the leadership from Tony ­Abbott for “his own self-interest”. He said speculation about an early election was designed “simply to cover up their own failings”…...

Australian Federal Election 2016: oh dear, Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan is at it again

In February this year Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan fronted the Grafton Chamber of Commerce and delivered a large pork pie regarding thresholds for foreign investment in Australian agricultural land and businesses.

He was at it again this month with a public assurance concerning foreign workers made to ABC News on 9 March which also picked up the daily double by repeating that misinformation about investment thresholds:

A National Party MP is hoping local jobs will not be lost as a result of a Chinese buy-out of north coast NSW macadamia farms.

Four properties covering 380 hectares at Dunoon near Lismore, and formerly run by US-based Hancock Farms, have been bought by a Chinese group known as "Discovery".

The member for Page Kevin Hogan said he was aware of rumours of a sale.

Mr Hogan said a Free Trade Agreement with China did not mean the door was now open to foreign workers.

"It's a well-known fact within the free trade agreements that we do with any country, not just China, because let's not just make this a China thing, that any company and there's been companies that have owned Australian assets for 200 years and with every free trade agreement the work has to be offered to Australians first," Mr Hogan said.

Kevin Hogan said any foreign investment greater than $15 million had to be approved by the Foreign Investment Review Board, and he was waiting on information on whether the macadamia sale was vetted.

"We made an election commitment to lower it from the ridiculous amount of $ 250 million when it used to be triggered to look at a purchase if it was in the national interest, we have lowered that from 250 to 15 [million dollars] so if this entity has triggered over $15 million it would have absolutely gone before the Foreign Investment Review Board," Mr Hogan said. [my red bolding]

Now voters in the Page electorate are far from silly and many would have wondered what free trade agreement Mr. Hogan had been reading to boldly state that “with every free trade agreement the work has to be offered to Australians first”.

The Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s own copy of ARTICLE 10.4: GRANT OF TEMPORARY ENTRY of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement clearly states:

3. In respect of the specific commitments on temporary entry in this Chapter, unless otherwise specified in Annex 10-A, neither Party shall:

(a) impose or maintain any limitations on the total number of visas to be granted to natural persons of the other Party; or

(b) require labour market testing, economic needs testing or other procedures of similar effect as a condition for temporary entry.

So this free trade agreement allows an unlimited number of temporary work visas for Chinese nationals (and in some cases their spouses) in many employment categories and, there is no test to see if the employment positions in Chinese-owned businesses within this country that they are taking up – for a period up to 4 years - could be filled by suitably qualified Australian workers.

One has to wonder if Kevin Hogan reads beyond the regular ‘talking points’ distributed to MPs by his party.

Australian Federal Election 2016: these tired old tricks no longer work, Tones

This was the Member for Warringah, Tony Abbott, in the Australian Financial Times on 9 March 2016:

On Friday, Tony Abbott said one of Labor's "five new taxes" included a housing tax (negative gearing), a wealth tax (capital gains), a seniors tax (superannuation), a workers tax (smokers), and the carbon tax.

"Five new taxes is what Bill Shorten has in store should Labor win the next election”…..

There it is, another three-word slogan – “five new taxes”.

So where are these five new taxes?

Negative gearing is a tax concession not a tax charge and Labor does not intend to eliminate this concession for all existing negatively geared investments or future new housing stock – the concession will be removed only on any future investment purchases of old housing stock after 30 June 2017.

Capital gains tax already exists so it is not new. The existing discount subsidy on this tax will be halved under a Labor Government on 1 July 2017. However, all investments made before this date will not be affected by this change and will be fully grandfathered and this policy change will also not affect investments made by superannuation funds. The CGT discount will not change for small business assets. This will ensure that no small businesses are worse off under these changes.

Superannuation is already taxed at certain points of accumulation. Labor is proposing to make this tax fairer by discouraging its use for estate planning/tax avoidance by people with very large incomes by realigning super tax concessions i.e. lowering the High Income Superannuation Contribution (HISC) threshold to $250,000. Around 110,000 people will be affected by the new arrangements.  It will  also reduce the tax-free concession available to people with annual superannuation incomes from earnings of more than $75,000. From 1 July 2017, future earnings on assets supporting income streams will be tax‑free up to $75,000 a year for each individual. Earnings above the $75,000 threshold will attract the same concessional rate of 15 per cent that applies to earnings in the accumulation phase. This measure will affect approximately 60,000 superannuation account holders with superannuation balances in excess of $1.5 million......To ensure that similar concessions are reduced for defined benefit superannuation schemes, Labor will also remove the 10% tax offset for defined benefit income above $75,000, estimated to effect approximately 9,500 account holders.

Tobacco taxation already exists so it also is not new, but the tax percentage will change if Labor wins government. Resulting in a price increase on a packet of cigarettes of an est. $10 spread over four years.

Carbon tax does not exist currently – in fact the previous Labor government's carbon levy was scheduled to end in 2014-15 as it moved towards the then legislated change to a market-driven carbon pricing mechanism. In 2014 a newly elected Abbott Government abolished this national emissions trading scheme. To date Labor has not announced details of its new climate change policy except to point out that it intends to implement an emissions trading scheme which will not be a tax.

Five new taxes planned under Labor? Er..... more like no new taxes in these five instances identified by Tony Abbott in full election campaign-mode.