Abbott not faring well in latest Morgan Poll

L-NP (50%) now level with ALP (50%) as Western Australia set to vote again for the Senate

November 06 2013 

Finding No. 5279

Topic: Federal Poll Public Opinion

Finding No. 5279 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 2/3, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,077 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 2%) did not name a party.

On a two-party preferred basis the L-NP is 50%, down 1.5% since the Morgan Poll of October 19/20, 2013. ALP support is 50%, up 1.5%. If an election were held now the result would be too close to call according to the Morgan Poll. This multi-mode Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted last weekend (November 2/3, 2013) with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,077 Australian electors aged 18+.

The L-NP primary vote is 41.5% (down 2%) ahead of the ALP primary vote at 35% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 10.5% (up 0.5%), support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) is 5.5% (up 1%) and support for Independents/Others is 7.5% (unchanged). Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (12.5%).

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows support for the ALP has increased strongly among women. Women favour the ALP 52.5% (up 2.5% since October 19/20, 2013) cf. L-NP 47.5% (down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. However, men continue to favour the L-NP 52.5% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 47.5% (up 0.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now at 114.5, up 0.5pts since October 19/20, 2013. Now 45.5% (up 3%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 31% (up 2.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP (50%, down 1.5% over the past two weeks) and ALP (50%, up 1.5%) are now level on a two-party preferred basis after the final election results were at last declared. Palmer United Party (PUP) founder Clive Palmer won a tight contest for the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax (by only 53 votes) while in Western Australia the final Senate result is in doubt after the AEC admitted losing 1,375 ballots between the initial count and the re-count.

“The lost ballots in WA mean the High Court of Australia will have to determine whether the WA Senate results are valid, or whether a new election to elect six WA Senators is required. Most media commentators believe a fresh WA Senate election early in 2014 is the most likely outcome – the new Senators are not due to take their position until July 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today - which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 5279 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via SMS and face-to-face interviewing on the weekend of November 2/3, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,077 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 2%) did not name a party.

Data Tables

• Federal Voting Intention Summary - House of Reps (%)
• Two Party Preferred Vote (%)
• Australia Heading in the "Right" or "Wrong" Direction

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1.0

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Abbott to adjust rules governing parliamentarians' entitlements, but known rorters remain untouched

Prime Minister Tony Abbott's minimalist approach to the cancer in parliamentarian ranks.

Media Release

3/13
9 November 2011

Strengthening the Rules Governing Parliamentarians' Business Expenses

The system of funding the work costs of parliamentarians in carrying out their responsibilities must work in a way that ensures senators and members are accessible to their electors while ensuring taxpayers' money is well spent and maintaining public confidence in the system.

For this reason, the Government will act to strengthen a range of measures governing the funding of parliamentarians' work costs.

The Government will proceed with the following sensible reforms to improve the system's integrity:

• Strengthen the declaration a parliamentarian is required to make when submitting a travel claim. The new declaration will read: "I declare that this travel was undertaken in my capacity as an elected representative and I acknowledge that a financial loading will be applied if subsequent adjustment to this travel claim is required."
• Require that if parliamentarians make an adjustment to any claims made after 1 January 2014 they will be required to pay a loading of 25 per cent in addition to the full amount of the adjustment. This will not apply where the adjustment is the result of an error made by the Department of Finance.
• From 1 January 2014, mandatory training will be provided for parliamentarians and their offices if more than one incorrect claim is lodged within a financial year.
• The Special Minister of State may table in parliament the name of any parliamentarian who fails to substantially comply within a reasonable time with a request for further information as part of a departmental enquiry.
• Ask the Remuneration Tribunal to review the entitlement to a one night stopover which is currently available to some Queensland, Western Australian and Northern Territory parliamentarians. A stopover should only be required when it can be established that no connecting flight is available.
• Ask the Remuneration Tribunal to review the determination that a family member or designated person has only to spend three hours at the same location as the senator or member to qualify for the existing Family Reunion Travel Entitlement.
• The Government will move to limit the 'additional travel for children' entitlement for senior officers to children under the age of 18 from where it currently stands at 25 years of age.
• Review the entitlement for a spouse or partner to travel overseas on parliamentary delegations.
• Remove the seldom used entitlement to travel allowance for travel connected with the office of second deputy speaker.
• Prevent employment of a spouse, partner, parent or child of a senator or member, a child of the spouse or partner of a senator or member, or a son or daughter-in-law of a senator or member within that MP's own office.

The Government believes that these reforms will improve accountability and strengthen the existing system.

As part of this process, the Government has considered the recommendations of the 2009 Belcher Review that were not adopted by the former Government.

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Media Contact:	Phone:
Brad Rowswell	(02) 6277 7820 or 0417 917 796

BACKGROUND

Julie, Teresa, Barnaby, Scott, Stuart and Tony join George in the parliamentary entitlement rort corner - will more MPs follow?

Can Australian taxpayers afford Tony Abbott's sense of entitlement?

Taxpayers were handed the bill when Shadow Attorney-General Brandis 'conspired' against the Gillard Government at a private wedding

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott caught out charging Australian taxpayers for his own book promotion expenses

The face of the 21st Century invasion of Australia

http://youtu.be/KA9Doq2283E

Another three views on Prime Minister Action Man

In the Business Spectator on 5 November 2013:

Tony Abbott was a master of the photo-opportunity in the lead up to the 2010 and 2013 elections. In those periods it was hard-hats, fluoro vests, and the constant misrepresentation of the scale and nature of the ‘carbon tax’ impost on the economy. It was smart politics, but tended to swamp and ignore much more important issues.

In government, Abbott should be out there in overalls picking fruit, in a hair-net packing chopped spinach; shaking hands with uni professors and, for a change, praising their efforts to expand their teaching into Asia; sailing an LNG tanker out to sea; and visiting wealth management offices of Australian banks and financial institutions in Bangkok.

In short, using the photo-op for good, not evil. 

The Age on 6 November 2013:

The making of effective foreign policy always looks easier than it is. As a result, new governments tend to underestimate the task. The Howard and Rudd/Gillard governments each made tentative starts on the international stage. The current government's diplomatic initiation has been worse. Even allowing for inexperience, the Abbott government appears to be setting a new standard for diplomatic ineptitude. The Prime Minister in particular has lurched from one mistake to another, with each episode more ham-fisted than the last....

The Age on 6 November 2013:

You can’t thumb your nose at the voters’ right to know and you can’t arrogantly say ‘we’ll let the voters be misinformed and we won’t help journalists get it right'. That’s just a disgusting attitude. 

The respected Channel Nine reporter and political commentator told Fairfax Media that Prime Minister Tony Abbott and senior ministers were breaking their election promise of greater accountability for voters....

Singling out Immigration Minister Scott Morrison, Mr Oakes said arrogance and disregard for truth would ultimately backfire....

From a previous post: Action Man as seen through different sets of eyes...

North Coast Voices now available in perpetuity at the PANDORA Archive

Excerpt from an email received by North Coast Voices on 17 June 2013:

We would like to include the North Coast Voices blog in the PANDORA Archive and are seeking permission from you to grant us a licence under the Copyright Act 1968, to copy your website into the Archive and to provide public online access to it via the Internet. This means that you would grant the Library permission to retain your website in the Archive and to provide public access to it in perpetuity. If you are not the person with authority to give permission, please advise us who is or forward this communication to them.

The State Library of NSW is committed to preserving selected websites of lasting cultural value for long-term access by the Australian community. Only a relatively small number of websites are assessed as being significant enough for PANDORA and we would be grateful if you would allow us to include yours.....

On 31 October 2013 our regional blog was entered into the PANDORA public online archive and can be found at http://pandora.nla.gov.au/tep/114367.

Everyone at North Coast Voices would like to thank all the hardworking library staff involved in what would have been a monumental task, given that our blog has been regularly posting daily for at least 359 days of the year since 9 October 2007.

The Monster Under The Bed in November 2013

Cathy Wilcox