Thursday, 23 April 2009

The International Monetary Fund report pretends to tell us something we didn't already know (transcript)

With so much media coverage of the global financial crisis it would be hard not to understand that toxic debt is actually higher than originally anticipated, working capital is hard to find and, in the case of Australia, that the national economy was bound to go into recession this year, government revenue fall and unemployment deepen.

So the International Monetary Fund's April 2009 report on global financial stability does not report the unexpected:

The global financial system remains under severe stress as the crisis broadens to include households, corporations, and the banking sectors in both advanced and emerging market countries. Shrinking economic activity has put further pressure on banks' balance sheets as asset values continue to degrade, threatening their capital adequacy and further discouraging fresh lending. Thus, credit growth is slowing, and even turning negative, adding even more downward pressure on economic activity. Substantial private sector adjustment and public support packages are already being implemented and are contributing to some early signs ofstabilization. Even so, further decisive and effective policy actions and international coordination are needed to sustain this improvement, to restore public confidence in financial institutions, and to normalize conditions in markets. The key challenge is to break the downward spiral between the financial system and the global economy. Promising efforts are already under way for the redesign of the global financial system that should provide a more stable and resilient platform for sustained economic growth.To mend the financial sector, policies are needed to remove strains in funding markets forbanks and corporates, repair bank balance sheets, restore cross-border capital flows (particularly toemerging market countries); and limit the unintended side effects of the policies being implemented to combat the crisis. All these objectives will require strong political commitment under difficult circumstances and further enhancement of international cooperation. Such international commitment and determination to address the challenges posed by the crisis are growing, as displayed by the outcome of the G-20 summit in early April. Without a thorough cleansing of banks' balance sheets of impaired assets, accompanied by restructuring and, where needed, recapitalization, risks remain that banks' problems will continue to exert downward pressure on economic activity. Though subject to a number of assumptions, our best estimate of writedowns on U.S.-originated assets to be suffered by all holders since the outbreak of the crisis until 2010 has increased from $2.2 trillion in the January 2009 Global Financial StabilityReport (GFSR) Update to $2.7 trillion, largely as a result of the worsening base-case scenario for economic growth. In this GFSR, estimates for writedowns have been extended to include other mature market-originated assets and, while the information underpinning these scenarios is more uncertain, such estimates suggest writedowns could reach a total of around $4 trillion, about two thirds of which would be incurred by banks. There has been some improvement in interbank markets over the last few months, but funding strains persist and banks' access to longer-term funding as maturities come due is diminished. While in many jurisdictions banks can now issue government-guaranteed, longer-term debt, their funding gap remains large. As a result, many corporations are unable to obtain banksupplied working capital and some are having difficulty raising longer-term debt, except at much more elevated yields.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2009 Summary Version and Statistical Appendix

Preschoolers vs patients in development tiff


How many medical practices are there in Yamba?
Three, four - for a population of around 6,000?

Now yet another one is being considered by Clarence Valley Council in a section of the existing Kangabunnaby's child care centre building.

Yet another parking nightmare in the making for land that was zoned residential in the original cul-de-sac subdivision.
If passed, Kangabunnaby's would change from a 90-child facility down to one that caters for 54 children, with a total of 12 car spaces for staff and parents; and three consulting suites that shared nine car spaces plus two disabled car spaces.

Local mums are not amused and, one has to suspect that a development application fix may be in place when you see a proposed small medical practice described in the local media as a super clinic.

My nose tells me that if the application gets passed, within two years the owners will close the childcare centre and submit another DA for commercial premises.
Even more parking woes!

Clarence Floodplain Project in top 25 outstanding Aus-NZ projects announced by the Global Restoration Network

Jabiru at Little Broadwater on the Clarence Floodplain
Photograph: Clarence Valley Council

The Global Restoration Network and its cross-Tasman expert panel has just announced the top 25 outstanding ecological restoration projects being undertaken in Australian and New Zealand.

The Clarence Floodplain Project was included in this list and was also in the top 17 highly commended projects category.

Well done Clarence Valley Council and landholders and industry partners in this ongoing program.

I really shouldna, but WTF


It seems there can't be that many Aussies using Twitter because Cursebird, the real-time feed which records tweets using those b-a-d words, only had around 1.41% of tweets with the word b@stard included.
So where the bluidy hell are ya?

Wednesday, 22 April 2009

Possum on Turnbull's political free fall


Because of late I have neglected that ex-merchant banker who leads the Federal Coalition Opposition, here is Possum Comitiatus in Tuesday's Crikey:

This appears to be one of those "Holy cascading waterfalls of public disapproval Batman!" type events.

If we head on over to the historical satisfaction ratings of Opposition Leaders ,the only previous example that seems remotely comparable to Turnbull’s performance in the metrics is that of his Lordship, Alexander Downer.

Ouch!

Well said Possum.

I suspect that the next viable leader of the party is still in nappies, because it will take that sort of generational change to revive the post-Howard corpse.

And who said it wouldn't go to his head.......

Barack Obama is President of the United States of America - arguably the most powerful political position going, backed as it is by America's military might.

However, there is a global financial crisis and America is suffering. In March 2009 the official U.S. unemployment rate reached a 25 year high and over 13 million people (reputedly the highest absolute number on record) are wondering where their next pay check will come from.

The U.S. federal government is not as popular as the Obama Administration had hoped when it came to power after the 2007 presidential election. Tea parties to demonstrate against the taxpayer-funded financial bailout of Wall Street are the order of the day.

So is President Obama taking note of the mood of the nation and exercising a little fiscal restraint at the White House?

Not if this media snippet in the Mail Online is anything to go by:

When you're the president of the United States, only the best pizza will do - even if that means flying a chef 860 miles.

Chris Sommers, 33, jetted into Washington from St Louis, Missouri, on Thursday with a suitcase of dough, cheese and pans to prepare food for the Obamas and their staff.

He had apparently been handpicked after the President had tasted his pizzas on the campaign trail last autumn.

The NSW North Coast Local Government Stakes winners of 2007 and bets laid


In that race for the mayoral seat just how did NSW North Coast mayors' campaign spending compare at the 2007 local government election of shire councillors?

According to their own disclosure declarations of political donations and campaign expenditure:

Clarence Valley Mayor Richie Williamson spend $1,263.03 of his own money (mostly outlaid on newspaper and radio advertising) and nobody else chipped in any cash or kind help it seems.

Ballina Mayor Phil Silver splurged $8,941.36 from his personal kitty (spending it for the better part on newspaper, radio and cinema adverts with the odd poster thrown in) and no-one gave him a single cent as a donation.

Byron Mayor Jan Barham declared that she spent nothing and received nothing, presumably because she was running on a Greens group ticket.

Kyogle Mayor Ross Brown who heads a council representing only a few thousand punters, spent accordingly at $100 from his own wallet (paid down entirely at the local newspaper's advertising department) and not a brass razoo was sent his way from any other source.

Tweed Mayor Joan Van Lieshout (who ran as part of a NSW Liberals group ticket) spent nothing to get elected to council and, despite a fundraiser event, received no individual political donations, but Peiter Van Lieshout gave a $12,425.40 cheque to the ticket campaign which was spent on almost every form of campaigning known.

Coffs Mayor Keith Rhoades was another candidate who spent and received no money in his own right, but the group ticket of which he was a part laid out $9,250 and received $1,700 in donations (most of which was spent on TV and newspaper adverts).

Richmond Mayor Col Sullivan managed to risk $6,068.56 of his private moolah on the group ticket, which was a big part of total group candidate contributions of $10,068.56 (mainly spent on newspaper ads and flyers as well as someone to distribute these).