Science fights back at Universities Australia Climate Forum, Canberra 18 March 2010

Universities Australia is to be commended for encouraging the science community to respond to those barbarians noisily hammering at the gate.

Hopefully transcripts of forum speeches will be posted online for the wider dissemination.

From the Science In Public website:

Climate Change: bridging scientific knowledge and public policy

Thursday 18 March 2010

The Mural Hall, Parliament House, Canberra, 8.30am – 12.30pm

Universities Australia is the peak body of all Australia's universities and is committed to engaging with Parliament on issues of great national significance, and to informing social, political and commercial responses to those issues.

The UA Forum on Climate Change will focus both on the scientific evidence, and the certainties and uncertainties of that evidence, as well as the challenges of communicating the science and of bridging scientific knowledge and public policy.

The program will comprise three sessions each with a series of brief presentations covering:

Session 1: Climate change in Australia today – the evidence

Session 2: Australian research that reveals the future of climate change – certainties and uncertainties

Session 3: Responding to climate change: the social and economic impact

The speakers will include research leaders in climate science and the impacts of climate change including: Nathan Bindoff, Roger Jones, Amanda Lynch, Roger Stone, Snow Barlow, Marie Keatley, Janette Lindesay, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, and John Quiggin

Some of the issues that will be covered are:

• What are the signs of climate change in Australia today? What are the predictions?
• How are cities, agriculture and the environment responding?
• How well placed are we to adapt to our changing climate.
• What are the jobs and opportunities in responding effectively to climate change?

For more information visit www.scienceinpublic.com.au/blog/ua

For more information and to register please contact Niall Byrne, Science in Public Ph: 03 9398 1416, Mobile: 0417 131 977
Email: niall@scienceinpublic.com.au

Who's guarding the guards guarding your personal information?

Just as the Rudd Government has two bills before Parliament which would a) allow the Australian Taxation Office to hand secret taxpayer information to other government agencies to "prevent or lessen" a serious threat to public health or safety and b) establish a national database containing every citizen's personal residential and health information in the face of serious continuing doubts concerning data security and function creep, as well as intending to sanction the non-consensual handling of personal information to facilitate research in the public interest, not just for medical and health research, the Australian Law Reform Commission releases a series of recommendations which advise government to weaken criminal sanctions in certain circumstances for improperly disclosing information.

In the face of evidence that Medicare, Centrelink, the Tax Office and certain other government agencies all have a long history of spying on individual client records and that theft and sale of health information is not unknown internationally - do we really need to see criminal sanctions watered down for any form of unlawful information sharing?

Of course the principal motivation for establishing this national database is not just installing an e-Health program, it also appears to be a desire to create a backdoor citizen identification scheme similar to those proposed in relation to the Australia Card and Access Card, so this haphazard approach to the security of a citizen's personal digital information is perhaps par for the course.

ALRC media release on 11 March 2010:

The final report of the Australian Law Reform Commission's comprehensive review of Commonwealth secrecy laws, Secrecy Laws and Open Government in Australia (ALRC Report 112) was tabled in federal Parliament today. The report is the product of a 15-month inquiry and makes 61 recommendations for reform. It sets out a new and principled framework designed to reinforce open and accountable government while ensuring adequate protection for Commonwealth information that should legitimately be kept confidential......
Prof Croucher stated that a key focus of the ALRC report was to "wind back" the use of criminal sanctions, for the unauthorised disclosure of information, including the repeal of s 70 of the Crimes Act 1914, which has attracted consistent criticism over the years. "Criminal sanctions should only be imposed where the unauthorised release of information has caused, or is likely or intended to cause, harm to identified public interests."

ALRC Report 112 Secrecy Laws and Open Government in Australia

Terms of Reference (PDF) (RTF)
List of Participants (PDF) (RTF)
List of Recommendations (PDF) (RTF)
Executive Summary (PDF) (RTF)

International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights

Monsanto's failures come as no surprise

Potential for yield declines in GM soybean has already been recorded, along herbicide resistant weeds, so it should really come as no surprise to find that yet another Monsanto genetically modified seed variety is not living up to its advertising hype:

A genetically modified cotton produced by Monsanto is failing to control pests in four Indian states, the company said last week.
The survival of the pink bollworm in Monsanto's Bollgard brand cotton was detected in four of the nine Indian states where the cotton is grown.
A spokesman for the Creve Coeur-based company said it is taking the matter "very seriously" and will continue to monitor the situation with the help of a team of Indian-based experts. The detection has been reported to the Indian Genetic Engineering Committee, the company said.
The cotton is engineered to resist the pink bollworm, a pest that can ruin crops. However, testing was conducted to assess resistance to Cry1Ac, the Bt protein in the crop, and insects were found to be surviving it.
The company said Friday that the resistance could be occurring because the required refuge areas were not planted by farmers and some may have used unapproved Bt cotton seed.
Recently, India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, said the country should be more cautious in adopting genetically modified crops.

* This post is part of the North Coast Voices' effort to keep Monsanto's blog monitor (affectionately known as Mr. Monsanto) in long-term employment.

Is this your favourite beach? Mapping NSW coastal erosion

Figure 1. Cross-section of a sandy beach showing the significant difference in the volume of sediment eroded in high-magnitude storms (1:100 year) compared to seasonal erosional events.

Belongil Beach, Byron Bay
Old Bar and Campbell's beaches, Coffs Harbour

Google Images

Premier Keneally. Won't come to see us. Might send a photo.

NSW Premier Kristina K. Keneally won't accept the NSW Northern River's invitation to visit but has just released a glossy new 12-page brochure called "100 Days, A New Direction for NSW" reported to contain 124 photos of her smiling face - all at taxpayers' expense. Albeit in what seems to be a limited print run.
While this obvious vanity puff piece is at my and your expense I cannot find an official copy online anywhere. It's not on her blog or the official NSW Premier's website as I write.
So who's going to see this American-style propaganda? Just the media and select vippies in the cities?
Or is Kristina going to spend more of our money mailing it out to every NSW household?
Nah. She wouldn't be that stupid, surely.....

"Moggy Musings" [Archived material from Boy the Wonder Cat]

A pet honour roll musing:
The Daily Examiner published the Clarence Valley Australia Day 2010 Pet Show winners list. Well done everyone!
Best Kept Dog
1st Poodle -'Muffy' handled by Sarah Bruce 2nd Boxer -'Fly' handled by Cherie Jurkewicz
3rd Staffordshire Bull Terrier 'Crystal' handled by Grace Ford
Best Kept Any Other Animal
1st Ferret -'Bob' presented by Shane Griffiths
2nd Guinea Pigs -'Amethyst & Lapiszuli' presented by Amber Skinner
3rd Guinea Pig -'Grandmaster Flash' presented by Kim McClymont
Prettiest Animal Other Variety
1st Rabbit -'Massie' presented by Jamie Brown
2nd Rabbit -'Sooty' presented by Caitlin Grainger
3rd Rabbit -'Blackie' presented by Erica Creighton
HC Fish and Worms presented by Madeline Vidler and her brother
Best Groomed Cat
1st 'Oliver' presented by Jasmin Nash
2nd 'Cosmo' presented by Levi Vidler
Prettiest Cat
1st 'Cosmo' presented by Levi Vidler
2nd 'Oliver' presented by Jasmin Nash
Best Kept Bird
1st Quarrion -'Nibbles' presented by Harrison Vidler
2nd Brown Hen -'Rusty' presented by Erica Creighton
3rd Bird -'Fluffy' presented by Jamie Brown
Prettiest Bird
1st Quarrion -'Pepper' presented by Madeline Vidler
2nd Quarrion -'Nibbles' presented by Harrison Vidler
3rd Brown Hen -'Rusty' presented by Erica Creighton
Dress-up - Best Dressed Animal and Handler
1st Australian Cowboy 'Coco' and Liam Ward
2nd Bikie Staffy 'Piggy' and Shieann Acroyd
3rd hula Dancer 'Razzles' and Marissa Menzies
HC Ballet dancer Boxer 'Bella' and Cherie Jurkewicz HC Maid Maltese Cross 'Rosie' and Jamie Brown
Best Behaved Dog
1st Maltese Cross 'Charlotte' handled by Brian Maddocks
2nd Shih Tzu 'Jack' handled by David Kitchenel
3rd Bull Arab Cross 'Hector' handled by Jamie Evans
HC Groodle 'Taddy' handled by Sophie Turner
Best Tricks
1st White Staffordshire Bull Terrie 'Piggy' handled by Shieann Acroyd
2nd Dalmatian/Whippet Cross 'Kasey' handled by Abbie Counsell
3rd Fox Terrier 'Coco' handled by Liam Ward
HC Labrador 'Max' handled by Milly Deefholts
Animal Most Like Owner
1st Staffordshire Bull Terrier 'Maximum' and Zach McCann
Biggest Pet Animal
1st Dog Bull Arab Cross 'Hector' handled by Jamie Evans
Smallest Pet Animal
1st Mouse 'Rattley' presented by Jamie Brown

A Grrr at Kevin Rudd musing: Even Toovey the Wonder-Dog blacked out his website on 26 January 2010 in protest at Rudd's plan to censor the Internet in Australia. Next furry friend to see this man should give him a sharp nip on the ankle (I'm looking your way Jasper & Abby).

Australia Day 2010 musing: On 26 January the Clarence District Kennel Club is holding its Australia Day Pet Show at See Park in Grafton NSW. Starting at 9am and finishing at 11.30am. Free entry for your pet in best kept dog; best behaved dog; dog with best trick; best kept cat; best behaved cat; best kept bird; most colourful bird; best kept any other variety of pet; prettiest any other variety of pet; pet most like owner; best fancy dressed pet; biggest pet; smallest pet. Dog agility display. Come along for a great time!

A Happy Holidays musing: I hope everyone has a great time over Xmas and a super New Year celebration. Please remember to make sure your pets have some shade and plenty of water in the backyard during the summer and always take water with you when walking that dog on hot days.
For a little light holiday reading go to I Can Has Cheezburger.

The poll that really counts? Punters still not favouring Abbott-led Coalition

Possum Comitatus chart from Pollytics 12 March 2010

Betting markets may not hold all the answers but they have been uncannily predictive of real world political wins in more than a few local, state and national elections in the USA, Britain and Australia over the last decade according to the Political Forecasting Unit/Betting Research Unit at Nottingham Trent University U.K.

While in America; Justin Wolfers, a Stanford University finance professor, came to a similar conclusion in a study that examined the accuracy of bookmakers predicting the outcome of Australia's federal election.
In a survey of wagering on Australia's 2001 federal election, Wolfers found that the candidate favored by the country's largest bookmaker, Centrebet, prevailed in 43 of 47 contests.

Wolfers & Leigh in the Australian Journal of Political Science Vol 37:
Centrebet also offered odds on the outcomes in 47 electorates. Figure 6 focuses on the betting favourite in each race, plotting the probability of victory implicit in these odds against their two-party-preferred vote share. In 43 of 47 cases, the betting favourite won the election. Indeed, all 13 ALP candidates who were fancied in the betting won, while the four losers comprised two National Party MPs and two Liberals. Moreover, candidates who were more highly fancied also won a greater share of votes. Given that most marginal seats were in this sample, the fact that the market correctly selected so many tight races is quite extraordinary.

Possum gives us the graph above this week based on the Centerbet, IASbet, Sportingbet and Betfair markets which (only around 4-6 months out from writs being issued) must give the Coalition pause for thought concerning both Tony Abbott and election promises.

Time for all candidates to become acquainted with the betting odds?