Tuesday, 27 July 2010

What Australia's population growth really looks like when the political hype is stripped away (Country, States and NSW North Coast)


The current debate concerning Australia's population appears to have degenerated into an argument about asylum seekers, general immigration levels and skilled migration policy filtered though the lens of political opportunism in a federal election campaign.

When the real issues for this country are whether:
a) we can afford to steadily expand our population numbers by birth/immigration and still retain our present excessive levels of both community and individual consumption;
b) we can sustainably resolve tensions between urban, industry and agricultural competition for natural resources; and
c) the state can ensure adequate public expenditure on both social needs and necessary infrastructure when average life expectancy has increased significantly and less children are being born than the natural increase required to create a robust tax base into the future.

While Gillard waffles and Abbott dog whistles, here are graphs based on Australian Bureau of Statistics and Dept. of Immigration and Citizenship data showing where we've been and where we're heading in relation to population numbers:

Australia's immigration levels of nearly 300,000 in 2008-09 and 230,000 in 2009-10 were inflated by expats returning home because of the global financial crisis and more New Zealanders coming over looking for work according to demographer Bernard Salt.

BIS Shrapnel states that 2008-09 to 2009-10 immigration levels were also inflated by an unusually large rise in long-stay visa holders such as foreign students and 457workers....
The increase was greatest in 2008-09 when the net population gain from long-term visitors accounted for 74 per cent of the national net overseas migration gain of 298,000 persons.

Population projections based on a notional overall total population increase of one person born or permanently migrating into Australia every 1 minute:
BIS Shrapnel population projections for 2010-12 taking into account economic growth still inhibited by the global financial crisis, as well as the impact of 2007-10 revised visa eligibility requirements and reduced overall permanent migration intake on population movement:

Click on images to enlarge

Graphs displayed here, here, here and here.

Go back, you are going the wrong way! One Yamba-ite tells McDonald's Australia


It is always nice to feel wanted as you begin to implement plans to enter a small coastal town business community.

The text of an email sent by one Yamba resident to the McDonald's licensee who will operate the new McDonald's eat-in and drive-through fast food outlet in Yamba at the mouth of the Clarence River on the NSW North Coast:

Hello Mr. Campbell,

I'm writing to you as I wonder why you would be PRing yourself saying you have had a great response from the Yamba people. The only ones you would get 'great response' from would be:

* Those who believe they will get full time work and be able to get off the dole. I've crunched your numbers and very few would have the benefit of full time work from your Yamba store.

* The sports groups who believe they will get all sorts of financial assistance from you.

* Those who think that they all will move up the ladder in your store - I guess all 75-100 people you say you'll employ think they'll do that.

As for the majority of us in Yamba (population around 6,000 as opposed to 40,000 in Ballina) - no amount of PR fools us into thinking you are actually wanted in town. Go on the highway - tell your bosses to enlarge their world-wide property portfolio in another town.

You based your Yamba store numbers on your Ballina store! You admitted it!

You PR yourself in the papers now saying you are 'considering' moving here. Would that be in response to the fact we publicised you live in Byron (a place that doesn't want your type of business) and operate a Ballina store?

We are not fooled by the 'saviour' complex you and MacDonalds blab at each opportunity in regard to you moving into townships. Yamba doesn't need you nor want you. A small percentage are fooled and if you find that a 'great response' wait till you get here!

Stay where you are. I guess you haven't wanted a MacDonalds in the town you live in. It does cheapen the place doesn't it!

2010 Election Campaign Day 11 - Is the fix already in?


Can our poor benighted Oz pollies go home until polling day on 21 August 2010?
Maybe not. But yesterday's Essential Report seems to suggest that those contesting 'safe' seats can at least go home early each day, because a great many of us have probably firmly made up our minds about which party we will favour with our votes:
51% of respondents said they had already decided which party to vote for and a further 32% said they would decide before election day – 10% will make their decision on election day.
61% of Labor voters and 65% of Liberal voters say they have already decided compared to 53% of Greens voters.
Younger voters are less likely to have decided which party to vote for – only 38% of under 35’s have already decided, 36% will decide before election day, 10% on election day and 16% do not know when they will decide.




Click table to enlarge

Monday, 26 July 2010

Who's letter writer Simon Kinny - it pays to read between the lines


Simon Kinny of Lismore had a letter to the editor in Saturday's Daily Examiner.

Funnily enough, Kinny forgot to mention that he's Dr Simon Kinny and he just happens to be the Nationals' Page Electorate Council Chairman and features on National Kevin Hogan's web page

Kinny can be contacted at St Vincents Hospital in Lismore at Suite 11, Level 3, St. Vincent's Specialist Medical Centre,
20 Dalley, Lismore, NSW 2480, Australia
Ph: (61 2) 66 21 4177
Fax: (61 2) 66 21 4186

Kinny can also be contacted via his email address at ski66335@bigpond.net.au

And for those who need Kinny to reply to their concerns very promptly, his mobile number is 0407 065 566

Nationals Kevin Hogan - Haunted by the Ghost of Election Past



I really shouldn't laugh, but the sight of former Nationals candidate Chris Gulaptis' photo posted on Sportingbet Decider in 2010 instead of current Nationals candidate, Kevin Hogan, was unexpected to say the least.

Australia 2010: When the welcome mat is never put out for you


SANE Australia has released the findings of a recent survey in Research Bulletin 12 Social inclusion and mental illness - hopefully in time to assist with mental health policy responses from the major parties contesting the Australian Federal Election on 21 August 2010:

"The survey was conducted in March-April 2010 using a convenience sample of 559 people who completed an anonymous questionnaire.

The most common diagnoses reported were depression (40%), bipolar disorder (22%), anxiety (13%), and schizophrenia (12%)........

Over 50% of respondents to the survey, however, reported that mental illness had cut short their education, and they had not been offered support to continue this later.....

Most respondents (75%) were Centrelink clients. Of these, two-thirds (66%) were dissatisfied with the help provided by Centrelink and the disability employment services to which they referred people. Centrelink staff often did not understand the impact of mental illness, it was reported.

Many employment service staff also had difficulty understanding the needs of clients with mental illness, or had unrealistic expectations of them.......

Over half of the respondents (52%) reported that they did not feel part of their local community. Many reported that they had been treated disrespectfully at some time because of their mental illness (42%).

A 'digital divide' was also identified. While 72% of the general population use the Internet from home to engage with others, only 47% of respondents reported being able to do this.......

In summary

Many people with a mental illness experience disruption of their education, and receive no support to resume this.

Centrelink and employment service staff are inadequately supported and trained to help people with a mental illness find work.

People with a mental illness often feel they are not part of their local community, and are not welcome there. They are also far less likely to be connected to others because of a lack of Internet access.

Most people with a mental illness do not know where to go for help regarding discrimination, or find the process unhelpful. While other groups in society are protected from vilification (on grounds of religion or culture, for example), this protection is unavailable to people with a disability.