Tuesday 27 July 2010

What Australia's population growth really looks like when the political hype is stripped away (Country, States and NSW North Coast)


The current debate concerning Australia's population appears to have degenerated into an argument about asylum seekers, general immigration levels and skilled migration policy filtered though the lens of political opportunism in a federal election campaign.

When the real issues for this country are whether:
a) we can afford to steadily expand our population numbers by birth/immigration and still retain our present excessive levels of both community and individual consumption;
b) we can sustainably resolve tensions between urban, industry and agricultural competition for natural resources; and
c) the state can ensure adequate public expenditure on both social needs and necessary infrastructure when average life expectancy has increased significantly and less children are being born than the natural increase required to create a robust tax base into the future.

While Gillard waffles and Abbott dog whistles, here are graphs based on Australian Bureau of Statistics and Dept. of Immigration and Citizenship data showing where we've been and where we're heading in relation to population numbers:

Australia's immigration levels of nearly 300,000 in 2008-09 and 230,000 in 2009-10 were inflated by expats returning home because of the global financial crisis and more New Zealanders coming over looking for work according to demographer Bernard Salt.

BIS Shrapnel states that 2008-09 to 2009-10 immigration levels were also inflated by an unusually large rise in long-stay visa holders such as foreign students and 457workers....
The increase was greatest in 2008-09 when the net population gain from long-term visitors accounted for 74 per cent of the national net overseas migration gain of 298,000 persons.

Population projections based on a notional overall total population increase of one person born or permanently migrating into Australia every 1 minute:
BIS Shrapnel population projections for 2010-12 taking into account economic growth still inhibited by the global financial crisis, as well as the impact of 2007-10 revised visa eligibility requirements and reduced overall permanent migration intake on population movement:

Click on images to enlarge

Graphs displayed here, here, here and here.

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