5 sleeps to polling day and .......

....the Nats Kevin Hogan is still providing laffs on the NSW North Coast.

This time a give-away note pad (below) proudly proclaims that he did not use taxpayer's money to produce the pad.

Er, you're a first time candidate Kevvie - not a sitting MP - so you're not eligible for any taxpayer funded printing allowance.

There's no virtue in claiming to abstain from what you can't access in the first place!

Antony Green takes exception to News Ltd & Sky's psephological howler

This was Sky News last night (14 August 2010):

















This is The Australian and News Ltd this morning (15 August 2010):

THE Coalition is leading the government and is on track to win the 17 seats it needs for an election victory, according to a Galaxy Poll.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is ahead of the ALP 51.4 per cent to 48.6 per cent, the opinion poll published by News Limited's Sunday newspapers.
News Limited also publishes of The Australian.
The poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal electorates in five states predicts devastation for Labor in Queensland, where a potential swing of 5.4 per cent against the government could cost it 10 seats.

This is Antony Green's Election Blog, also published early this morning, telling the world that the Australian media is getting it wrong, wrong, wrong:

When I entered the swings into the ABC calculator, I got the following result

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0.3&nsw=-2.4&vic=1.6&qld=-5.4&wa=-2.1&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

This produced a national 2PP figure of 51.1% for Labor, completely at odds with the figure of Coalition 51.4% reported above. Then it dawned on me that whoever calculated 51.4% has made a very basic error of political analysis.

The five 2PP figures for 2007 and 2010 reported above apply only to the four electorates in each state. They are not 2-party preferred figures for each state, and the Galaxy tables have been very precise in setting out the 4-seats per state nature of the poll.

What someone has done is take the five entries in the 2010 2PP column and average them to get a national figure. Wrong. Very wrong.

There are two serious errors committed here. First, the figures are for four electorates, NOT the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not. To get a National 2PP figure, you need a weighted average of the state swings, NOT a simple average of the survey 2PPs by state.

The method I used in the calculator is the correct way to produce a national 2PP %. If you assume the swings in the four states are uniform in each state, the new state Labor 2PP %'s are NSW 51.3%, VIC 55.9%, QLD 45.0%, SA 52.4% and WA 44.6%.

These produce a National Labor 2PP % from this Galaxy poll of 51%, not 48.6%. Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure.

The Neilsen Poll published by Fairfax this morning and previewed by Lateline last night supports Antony Green's assessment that surveyed voter intentions are now favouring Labor.

Update: Channel 7's Weekend Sunrise was still repeating the wrong two party preferred percentages during news updates - up to and including the 8am recap.

Actual Galaxy Research 8-13 August poll results here showing 2pp % Labor 52% Liberal 48%.

A Visual Impression of Teh Oz Economy under any ToBattyNob Guvmin'

With grovelling apologies to

the NSW Dept. of Fair Trading

and its copious illustrated leaflet pile.

6 more sleeps to polling day and.....

....it's still anyone's guess whether, after the 21st of August, Oz will be governed by a well-meaning but essentially conservative Labor pollie or ruled by a dictatorial theocratic ultra-conservative Liberal pollie.
Hughie's sense of humour is showing. Think I preferred it when all he threw at us was droughts and flooding rains.

No explanation required

Thanks Tandberg!















The Age

Finally, 15 & 17 August 2010 climate change becomes a focus of NSW North Coast debate in federal election

Climate Change Australia is part of the Climate Action Australia Network and:

is a community climate action group, with branches in Grafton (Clarence Valley), Port Macquarie (Hastings Valley) and Taree (Manning Valley) in north eastern New South Wales. The aims of Climate Change Australia are to: raise awareness about climate change issues and impacts encourage everyone to conserve energy and water promote the increased use of renewable energy encourage all levels of government to take urgent action on climate change. Next Tuesday CCA will host a candidates forum on climate change attended by all six candidates in the Page electorate. Candidates will put their position on climate change and answer questions from the community. Place: Roche's Family Hotel, Grafton Date: 17 August 2010 Time: 5.30pm to 6.30pm Information: clarenceclimate@yahoo.com.au The CCA Manning branch will also be holding a candidates forum in the Lyne electorate on Sunday 15 August 2010: CWA Hall (Quay North Building, 17-19 Horton Street) near the fig tree at The Town Green, beginning 10.30am. Contact stevelockhart@bigpond.com Ph: 02 6583 6393 The Northern Rivers Echo reports that on 17 August 2010, Grafton and South Grafton business people have been invited to meet the candidates of Page and Cowper. However, debate is stifled at this venue: With the support of Clarence Valley Council Mayor Richie Williamson, the Grafton Chamber will host an evening with the candidates following the council meeting on Tuesday. Due to council meeting procedure, questions cannot be raised from the public gallery. However, straight after the meeting, the Grafton Chamber of Commerce and Industry invites business people and the public gallery to join us and the candidates for light refreshments and an opportunity to raise questions with the candidates. Attendees are urged to be seated in the public gallery of the Grafton Council Chambers, 2 Prince Street, Grafton by 6.30pm.

The putative Australian deputy sheriff in any Abbott-led federal government?

Reading recent utterances of a certain Prince of the Church (and remembering his close cooperation with Abbott during the 2007 campaign) one cannot help but wonder if George Pell sees a possible Coalition victory on 21 August this year as less of a win for neo-conservative politics and more of a victory for the Catholic faith.

A victory which would allow him to figuratively perch on Tony Abbott's left shoulder and encourage that flawed politician's worst character traits.

Pell is obviously afraid that any increase in votes for The Greens would weaken Abbott's chances of becoming Australia's Über Right Wing Catholic prime minister and, the cardinal let fly with these sentiments last Sunday:

The Green ethic, as Bob Brown has written about it with Peter Singer, is that humans are simply another smarter animal, so that humans and animals are on the same or similar levels depending on their level of consciousness. This is to replace the Judaeo-Christian [sic] beliefs at the heart of Australia's values with the law of the jungle. It can be seen in the Greens' enthusiasm for abortion and euthanasia, which is bad news for the weak and the vulnerable, especially at the beginning and the end of life, and thoroughly anti-Christian.
and
One wing of the Greens are like water melons, green outside and red inside. A number were Stalinists, supporting Soviet oppression. A few years ago they even tried unsuccessfully to use the privileges committee of the N.S.W. Legislative Council to silence religious voices in public debate.
and again
"sweet-camouflaged poison".

In this he was supported on the NSW North Coast by the Catholic Bishop of Lismore Diocese who told the faithful that in voting they should consider candidates in this light:

"What sort of beliefs do they espouse? What sort of values do they hold, especially in regard to marriage and the family, in regard to the dignity and sanctity of human life? Is this candidate pro-life? Does he or she reflect the thinking and conduct of a person to whom I am happy, in conscience before God, to confide my vote?....we cannot ignore the enormous moral and social consequence of condoning the deliberate destruction of unborn human life."

While the bishop's counterpart in Perth had already questioned the advisability of voting for a atheist Labor prime minister in the person of Julia Gillard:

"Many Christians are concerned that someone who does not believe in God may not endorse the Christian traditions of respect for human life, for the sanctity of marriage and the independence of churches, church schools and church social welfare agencies."

The media release hurriedly sent out by the Australian Catholic Bishops Conference on 9 August, which began "Catholic Bishops do not tell people who to vote for", did not allay all fears that Pell and Co were not so subtly trying to direct votes in their congregations towards the only party headed by a committed pro-lifer.

It seems that Australian religious just can't resist meddling in the secular and, in case you were wondering, any lack of democracy after August 2010 is probably your fault - you, you, you nasty blogospherers!

Pell photograph credit: The Sydney Morning Herald