Australian Federal Election 2013: Robopollster opens door for survey fraud?

A number of Lonergan polls have been conducted during the 2013 Australian Federal Election campaign.

Lonergan is a robopollster that has been conducting surveys for The Guardian Australia....

Using voice broadcasting and IVR (integrated voice recognition) technology and either random phone numbers or specific lists, Lonergan Research is able to rapidly call a large number of phone numbers and ask a number of pre-recorded questions. Recipients respond using their telephone keypad or by voice.

These polls seem to indicate that the Coalition is set to take a number of high profile seats, including the seats of Forde and Griffith in Queensland and Lindsay in New South Wales.

The Guardian Australia 16 August 2013:

A Guardian Lonergan poll taken in the seat Thursday night shows the Liberal sitting member Bert van Manen’s support soaring from the 44% he polled in 2010 to 56% in 2013. Beattie’s primary vote was a dismal 34%, three percentage points lower than the 37% achieved by Labor’s candidate Brett Raguse in 2010.

The Guardian Australia 16 August 2013:

Today Guardian Australia reports on an exclusive poll in the marginal seat of Lindsay, in Sydney's western suburbs. The startling results: the Liberal candidate, Fiona Scott, polled 60% of first preferences, a 17-point improvement over her 43.4% performance in 2010. The Labor incumbent (David Bradbury, the Assistant Treasurer) is looking at a 13-point decline on first preferences: 44.6% in 2010 to the poll's 32%.

The Guardian Australia 22 August 2013:

Kevin Rudd is trailing Liberal rival Bill Glasson in his apparently safe Brisbane seat of Griffith, in alarming news for Labor from the latest Guardian Lonergan poll.

Glasson, who is running an intensive local grassroots campaign, leads Rudd on a two-party preferred basis by 52% to 48%. The poll's margin of error is 4%, but its findings raise the possibility that without a big effort on his home turf, Rudd could become the third prime minister in Australian history to lose his seat, behind John Howard in 2007 and Stanley Bruce in 1929.

However, the polling has an allegedly exploitable flaw – the ability for any individual survey respondent to double dip.

UPDATE

Guardian Australia responds later that day:

Contrary to some comments on Twitter, we keep only one interview per household. We conduct an interview with whoever answers the phone. This methodology alone results in an oversampling of older respondents relative to younger respondents, as older respondents are more likely to answer the phone.

To correct this, at the end of the survey, we ask if there are any younger voters in the household. If there are, we conduct the survey with the younger respondent and discard the response from the older respondent.

This response merely confirms that any individual survey respondent can in the second round deliberately misrepresent their age in an effort to be counted twice in the survey (eg. at the press of a telephone button a sixty year-old man turns into a twenty-three year old woman) and while this may not be successful with regard to a household being counted twice, it would lead to some responses included in final data not actually belonging to the gender/age cohorts to which they are assigned - thus still skewing results. 

UPDATE 2

Federal Election 2013: NSW Far North and Mid North Coast registered voter numbers and candidates by electorate

http://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/2010/files/nsw-results-map-2010.pdf

Number of registered voters on the NSW Far and Mid North Coast

Electorate      30 November 2010            31 July 2013           12 August 2013

Note: The New England electorate takes in part of the North Coast region

Total Enrolled Voters at 2010 Federal Election for comparison.

House of Representatives 7 September 2013 candidates by electorate.

This is what Tony Abbott thinks of Aboriginal women?

SBS World News 16 August 2013:

What was largely missed, however, was Mr Abbott’s description of Indigenous women when addressing the Garma Festival last weekend. Indigenous women were “cowering in their houses or their huts”, unempowered and fearful, and unable to participate in the decision-making processes that affected themselves, their families and communities. This foul potpourri of racism, paternalism and sexism has been completely ignored by the mainstream media, with the notable exception on Louise Taylor in The Guardian.

Tony Abbott's plan for Indigenous Australians is fatally flawed by Louise Taylor, 13 August 2013

Louise Taylor is an Aboriginal (Kamilaroi) woman and a barrister/solicitor practising in the Australian Capital Territory. Louise is the convenor of the Women's Legal Centre, an Indigenous Law Centre associate, and a member of the Law Council of Australia's Indigenous Legal Issues Committee. Her piece is written in a personal capacity

Looking back on the day Tony Abbott became the first federal minister to be ejected from the Australian Parliament in 40 years

House of Representatives Hansard 21 June 2000:

Mr ABBOTT—I am confident that the Job Network member in this case has acted quite properly, as has Centrelink. I agreed with the member for Dickson to keep the job seeker’s name and address confidential, and I have done so.

Mr Beazley—Sit him down.

Mr SPEAKER—Leader of the Opposition!

Mr ABBOTT—I have done exactly what I promised. You are a sanctimonious windbag.

Mr SPEAKER—The minister will resume his seat.

Mr ABBOTT—You are—

Mr SPEAKER—Minister!....

-the Minister for Employment Services will excuse himself from the House.

Mr Abbott—I was just going to join my friend.

Mr SPEAKER—Minister!

The member for Warringah then withdrew from the chamber.

Mr Albanese interjecting—

Mr SPEAKER—I beg your pardon, the member for Grayndler! The member for Grayndler will apologise.

Mr Albanese—I apologise, Mr Speaker.

Mr Latham—On a point of order, Mr Speaker. Just for clarification, have you suspended the minister under a standing order in your ruling?

Mr SPEAKER—I have indeed.

Mr Latham—Thank you.

Jack the Insider The Australian 25 June 2013:

Abbott did not excuse himself from the House directly. Enraged, the former Oxford boxing blue veered ominously towards the Opposition benches.

For a man who has been involved in the odd stink, albeit on the fields of sporting contest, it did look awful or at least potentially so. But Abbott didn’t get far. He presumably thought better of engaging in a physical confrontation with his political opponents and left the chamber under escort.

Tony Abbott had become the first Minister to be punted from the parliament in forty years.

Alan Ramsey The Sydney Morning Herald 24 June 2000:

House of Representatives Hansard 24 May 2012:

Mr ALBANESE (Grayndler—Leader of the House and Minister for Infrastructure and Transport) (15:10): We are not going to take lectures about parliamentary behaviour from this Leader of the Opposition, who is the only member of parliament to ever be thrown out of parliament for physically confronting a Vietnam vet with no legs, for marching across the chamber when he was out of control, to Graham Edwards. The Leader of the Opposition is not able to control his temper. He does not have the temperament to be the Prime Minister of this nation. He does not have the character to be Prime Minister of this nation.

Use Gmail - be afraid, very afraid

RT.com 13 August 2013:

"Just as a sender of a letter to a business colleague cannot be surprised that the recipient's assistant opens the letter, people who use Web-based email today cannot be surprised if their emails are processed by the recipient's [email provider] in the course of delivery,” the motion reads in part. “Indeed, 'a person has no legitimate expectation of privacy in information he voluntarily turns over to third parties.’" 

Google Motion 061313

A question about the Nationals candidate in Page

Listeners to local community radio station Richmond Valley Radio 88.9FM today must be wondering about the Nationals candidate for the seat of Page Kevin Hogan. Is Hogan racist, bog ignorant, or both?

Hogan told listeners he was holding a meeting with constituents next week at the Italo Australian Sports Club in Lismore.

Sounds like a worthy effort, doesn't it!?

However, the "sound" of Hogan (his pronunciation of the venue) is the reason why it must be asked: racist? bog ignorant? or both?

Hogan repeatedly referred to the club as the "Eye-Talo" Club.

Looks like Hogan is a throw back to days of yesterday.

1 Deadly Nation: "Indigenous life expectancy is at third world levels and Mr Abbott is racking up huge bills to do nothing about it while claiming credit for work he simply doesn't do!"

Cross posted with permission from 1 Deadly Nation: Unity in Diversity 13 August 2013:

 Abbott, the Truth and Cost of his Indigenous Volunteering

By now we’ve all heard it, as soon as criticism of the LNP’s policies on Indigenous Affairs (or lack thereof ) are raised the default position of LNP members, journalists and the apologists of in action is rolled out. Tony Abbott volunteers in Indigenous communities we are told, he goes for a week a year and these statements of “fact” are usually then followed by a barrage of holier than thou tripe about how much Mr Abbott could teach the rest of us….

So sure of this position, so much has it become the accepted reality, that statements from the LNP and journalists come to us on this subject with gay abandon. Take last night on the ABC’s Q and A program:-

CHRISTOPHER PYNE: We know that Tony Abbott works in Indigenous communities at least a week or two a year, and he has said that if he is elected Prime Minister that he will continue to do that and that he will take senior bureaucrats with him. He has done that in Cape York…

We know this do we? This just goes completely unchallenged and is gospel truth is it? Well here is what I know.

In August of 2012 Tony Abbott did indeed go to Cape York, but it wasn’t for a week or two as Mr Pyne suggests. It was for 2 days! It was a working bee of sorts and some of Australia’s business leaders were taken along to volunteer as well. Photos of Abbott with tools in hand were taken and the myth of Abbott the saviour of the Black man had a wonderful photo op. No problem so far until you examine the  Expenditure on Entitlements paid by the Department of Finance and Deregulation to Mr Abbott for this trip of “Volunteering”. And what do we find on page 12? An amount of $9,636.36, tax payer dollars, to fund the hire of a private charter flight for the 2 days. I don’t know about you, but when I volunteer to hammer in a few nails for a day or two I don’t ask the people of Australia to cough up 10k. That isn’t volunteering, that is the most expensive labourer in the history of Australia. I wonder what the sandwiches cost….(http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/parliamentarians-reporting/docs/P31/ABBOTT_Tony.pdf page 12.)

So was this a once off? Not on your life!

On another one of his trips to an Indigenous Community Mr Abbott was off to sell his version of the Wild Rivers Legislation to the traditional owners it would impact. Not quite volunteering as such, but policy is good and spending time in Indigenous communities is to be encouraged if it results in consultation that means that locals get their message across and this results in positive policy changes. So just how much did Mr Abbott listen to the local people of the Indigenous community he visited? How much was this reflected in his policy? Because hey, we know (or are told) he has the ear of the Black man…

”We do not support his shonky Bill,” said activist Murrando Yanner of the Carpentaria Land Council. ”We think it is badly drafted and legally unenforceable.” ”He will leave unhappy,” said Mr Yanner, who supports the existing Wild River legislation. ”His new Bill is a dogs breakfast.’

Well, that didn’t go to plan. It was neither volunteering nor listening to the locals. No harm in trying I suppose and if you spent the week out in the community helping it has some purpose, but little use if the status quo is maintained and you ignore the wishes of the people you supposedly assist. Well there is some harm and it wasn’t for a week. The harm comes in the form of another private charter flight, cost to the tax payer, $32,545.00. Because nothing says I volunteer to help those in need like a 30k ride in a jet. Oh and that week or two Pyne talks about? That trip that cost we the tax payer $32,545.00 in flights alone, was for just one night! (http://www.finance.gov.au/publications/parliamentarians-reporting/docs/T28/ABBOTT_Tony.pdf p29)

So when weeks are days and days cost tens of thousands of dollars and volunteering is photo ops and not listening to the traditional owners of the land you have to rename these volunteering trips. Tony Abbott’s very expensive, tax payer funded, private jet flown, not listening tours of outback Australia.

Next time an LNP member or journalist drops the “Abbott volunteers for weeks in Indigenous communities” line, call bullshit and then refer them to the figures. Three days and nearly $45000 in flights alone…, if that’s volunteering the rest of us are really doing it all wrong. Many of us, some one million odd Australians, do volunteer every year for community organisations, they slog their guts out, donate large amounts of money and never even ask for a thank you. The audacity of this public lie should be even more shocking when we remember that Indigenous life expectancy is at third world levels and Mr Abbott is racking up huge bills to do nothing about it while claiming credit for work he simply doesn’t do!