Friday, 13 February 2015

TRUST: no respite for Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott


Peter Martin, Economics Editor at The Age, blogging it like it is on 10 February 2015:

As Abbott brought forward the timing of the leadership vote on Sunday his supporter and finance minister Mathias Cormann told the ABC the economy was "heading in the right direction".

He wanted "to build on the achievements we made in 2014".

Take a moment to consider the achievements and the direction in which things are heading.

That year began with a quarterly rate of economic growth of 1 per cent. After the budget it slid to 0.5 per cent, and then to 0.3 per cent. It's falling, rather than rising.
The direction is down….

The Reserve Bank made its view about economic growth clear on Tuesday. Here's what it said when it cut rates an hour or two before its governor briefed Cormann and others in cabinet:

"In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak."

It's weak and it's bleak. It isn't heading "in the right direction".

Looking ahead the Reserve Bank expects growth to remain "a little below trend for somewhat longer, and the rate of unemployment peak a little higher, than earlier expected."

Unemployment has climbed from a quarterly rate of 5.3 per cent at the end of 2012 to 5.8 per cent at the end of 2013 to 6.2 per cent at the end of 2014. We get the first figures for 2015 on Thursday.

The direction is undeniably clear, but it's not the right one. Unemployment is worse than it was at the peak of the global financial crisis. The Reserve Bank expects it to get worse still...

Hockey and Cormann will tell you that while unemployment is growing, employment is too. But it's not, really. The number of hours worked per month grew barely at all throughout 2014. More people may have been employed at the end of the year than the start but on average they've been working less, some shifting to part-time work and others to fewer hours of full-time work. Disturbingly, the Reserve Bank says the number of hours worked per month has scarcely changed since December 2011 despite three years of population growth.

None of these facts would surprise anyone in business or anyone looking for a job. What would surprise them would be to hear from the team at the top that things are "heading in the right direction". It would make them think they were being lied to….

Joe Hockey's first budget was far worse than it seemed on the night in part because he didn't tell us the truth about it on the night. The usual calculations showing the households that won or lost were missing.  The treasury had prepared them as usual, the treasurer withheld them.

And he made up stuff. He said treasury had told him that fuel excise was "a progressive tax". It hadn't. He said the poorest Australians "either don't have cars or actually don't drive very far in many cases," something many of them know to be untrue. Petrol takes up a much bigger share of a low-income budgets than high-income budgets.  

He said his own wealthy electorate of North Sydney had "one of the highest bulk-billing rates in Australia". It had one of the very lowest in all of Sydney. He said "higher income households pay half their income in tax". They pay nothing like half. Even those on $200,000 pay just 36 per cent. Back from his holidays this January he revived the claim and went further saying typical Australians pay nearly half their income in tax.

"When Australians spend the first six months of the year working for the government with tax rates nearly 50 cents in the dollar it is a disincentive. You're working July, August, September, October, November, December just for the government and then you start working for yourself and your own household income after that for another six months, he said.

But Australia's tax-to-GDP ratio is around 30 per cent, including account all taxes, state and federal. It simply can't be the case that typical Australians pay nearly half their income in tax. They don't.

And exaggerated claims have eaten away at trust. Hockey said Australia was on track to run out of money to pay for its health, welfare and education systems. The figures put forward by his then health minister suggested otherwise. In ten years the cost of Medicare had climbed 124 per cent, the cost of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme 90 per cent and the cost of public hospitals 83 per cent. But Australia's gross domestic product - the money we would use to pay for these things - climbed 94 per cent.

The government tells us it's concerned about future generations, but won't release the treasury's intergenerational report. It tells us it wants a discussion about tax, but won't release the tax discussion paper finalised late last year.

Without trust we lack confidence. We are neither spending nor investing what we should. Business and consumer confidence has been sliding since September….

The government itself has become an impediment to economic growth…..

Assorted Liberal MPs forget their own leader's history and make fools of themselves


On Wednesday 11 February 2015 six Coalition MPs allegedly took exception to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s Closing The Gap reply and vacated the Chamber while he was still on his feet.
Apparently Shorten committed the sin of partisanship by mentioning Abbott Government funding cuts to Aboriginal agencies and frontline services, while the sainted Abbott was obviously considered by his backbenchers to be statesmanlike in his preceding 2015 Prime Minister’s Closing The Gap Address.

That next day The Sydney Morning Herald online reported:

Victorian Liberal MP Russell Broadbent was first to show his anger by leaving the chamber and later said he believed the partisan comments belittled an occasion that should have been above point-scoring.
"The people of Australia are calling out for leaders who can rise above the fray," he told Fairfax Media.
Others who walked out included Andrew Nikolic, Angus Taylor, John Cobb, Ken O'Dowd and Melissa Price.

So was Shorten’s speech a departure from accepted practice in relation to Close The Gap reply speeches by opposition leaders?

Looking to Tony Abbott’s reply speeches as Opposition Leader I came across this February 2011 example of straying off piste as it were:

I accept that it is very difficult for the government to support legislation which will impact on the work of the Queensland government. But I do think it would be a great and fitting sign of good faith on the part of our Prime Minister if she at least prepared to entertain change on this issue. As I said at the start, there have been many fine speeches in this House on this subject—many heartfelt utterances, much depth of passion and great sincerity. But let us translate that into the very best that we can do for Aboriginal people in our place in our time. That is why I think the wild rivers legislation should be revisited. I think that it would be a good test of the real quality and the real commitment of this parliament if we could find it in our hearts to pass this particular bill.

February 2012 delivered this fine example where, returning to the same subject in his reply speech, he accuses the Gillard Labor Government of attempting to bury his unpopular private member’s bill, Wild Rivers (Environmental Management) Bill 2010:

Mr Speaker, at the risk of straying into partisanship, I think I do need to raise today the issue of the wild rivers legislation, which has now been before this House for the best part of three years, one way or another. It is a modest bill, the wild rivers bill, that I have now put it several times before this Parliament. All the wild rivers bill seeks to do is ensure that Queensland wild rivers declarations can only apply with the consent of the traditional Aboriginal owners. I am not against wild rivers declarations. I accept that where the traditional owners want them, they should apply. But if indigenous people are really to be in control of their own land, if they are to enjoy genuine land rights, surely this is not too much to ask. Yet this modest bill of mine, which has but a couple of operative clauses and which runs to less than nine pages, has now been subject to no fewer than five inquiries by committees of this House or the other place. This modest bill is so inquired into that you cannot but conclude that those who control this Parliament are not trying to analyse it, they are trying to bury it.

So it appears that the first break in any bipartisan tradition of Closing The Gap reply speeches actually came from the lips of their own party leader and now prime minister,Tony Abbott.

That show of righteous indignation by these six Liberal MPs was a gesture which only demonstrates how foolish those governing us can be.

UPDATE


Thursday, 12 February 2015

Metgasco Limited: one picture is worth a thousand words


The Australian Stock Exchange, 11 February 2014:

Metgaso Limited (MEL) ordinary fully paid share $0.025 11 February 2015
Price $0.025 Volume 201,874.00 10 February 2014
Price $0.027 Volume 2,035,560.00 9 February 2015
Price $0.030 Volume 267,328.00 6 February 2015

The chart of daily prices over 1 year for security MEL

Are the punters finally abandoning coal seam/tight gas explorer and wannabe production company Metgaso?

NSW State Election 2015: the Member for Clarence is whistling in the wind


Gulaptis playing dress ups for the media

As the NSW Premier has publicly backed failing Prime Minister Tony Abbott, this from the sitting Nationals Member for Clarence is pure wishful thinking as he seeks to distance himself from both the Liberal Party and Abbott:

THE Tony Abbott effect that has trimmed more than 10% off the conservative vote in NSW won't be a factor in the Clarence electorate says sitting National Party member Chris Gulaptis.
Yesterday Prime Minister Abbott fought off a move to force a leadership spill in his party room 61 votes to 39, but commentators are saying his worries are not over.
However, Mr Gulaptis said the instability in Canberra will not overly affect voters in Clarence who will go to the polls next month in the State Election.
"I've seen those polls that show the effect of the leadership issue on the state vote, but it doesn't really apply in Clarence," Mr Gulaptis said.
"There's no Liberal candidate here and the Nationals are distinct from the Libs and have different values….

Read the rest of The Daily Examiner article here.

Wednesday, 11 February 2015

February 2015 progress report on the 'Prime Minister for Indigenous Australia'


In 2008, led by the first Rudd Federal Labor Government, the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) committed to six targets to reduce and/or eliminate the disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians in life expectancy, child mortality, education and employment.

These were:

Prime Minister Tony Abbott entered the Australian Parliament in a 1994 by-election -becoming the Member for Warringah, an affluent electorate on Sydney’s North Shore. By 1996 he was part of the first Howard Government and by 1998 he was a minister.

In December 2007 he became an Opposition MP when the Coalition lost government. Two years after that he became Leader of the Opposition and in 2013 he returned to the government benches as prime minister.

To his credit he probably has had more contact with remote area indigenous communities than many other metropolitan-based parliamentarians.

However, despite his political self-promotion on the subject, his time ‘living’ in these remote communities by his own admission barely makes 42 days in 21 years.

Four out of five of these short living and working in community experiences occurred during the six years he spent on the Opposition benches between 2007 and 2013.

Once Abbott became prime minister he declared himself to be “Prime Minister for Indigenous Australia”.

On 12 February 2014 he released his first Closing The Gap: Prime Minister’s Report and stood in the House of Representatives and pledged a fair go for Aboriginal people during his first Closing The  Gap Statement.

The Australian Human Rights Commission’s own Progress and priorities report 2014: Closing The Gap ended with a clear call to the Abbott Government in this Conclusion:

The commitment to close the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and life expectancy gap by 2030 was a watershed moment for the nation. Politicians, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous health sector, and human rights organisations, made a public stand in committing to this agenda. As did the Australian public. To date almost 200,000 Australians have signed the close the gap pledge and approximately 140,000 Australians participated in last year’s National Close the Gap Day. This is the generation who has taken on the responsibility to end Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health inequality.

Because of this leadership, and the willingness to ‘draw a line in the sand’, we are seeing reductions in smoking rates and improvements in maternal and childhood health that will eventually flow into significant increases in life expectancy. This provides early positive signs that people on the ground are responding to the initiatives and demonstrates that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities are taking responsibility for their health as they are being provided with increasing opportunities to do so.

Achieving health equality by 2030 is an ambitious yet achievable task. It is an agreed national priority and it is clear that the Australian public demand that government, in partnership with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and their representatives, build on the close the gap platform to meet this challenge.

For this reason, the Close the Gap Campaign has stressed the need for the new Australian Government to stay the course, to ensure policy continuity and to strengthen the national effort. This term of government will be critical to achieving the 2030 goal and we call on the new Australian Government to not only ensure policy continuity in critical areas of the national effort to close the gap, but to take further steps in building on and strengthening the existing platform.

Since Tony Abbott's first report and statement a marked change has occurred and, thus far, he has overseen a $534 million funding cut to indigenous programs administered by the Prime Minister and Cabinet and Health portfolios budgeted over five years; more than $160 million of the cuts will come out of Indigenous health programs. The health savings will be redirected to the Medical Research Future Fund.

The Human Rights Commission Progress and priorities report 2015: Closing The Gap states:

The Campaign Steering Committee is also concerned that hard won Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health gains could be negatively impacted by proposed measures contained in the 2014–15 Budget. Potential cuts to the Tackling Indigenous Smoking programme are of particular concern and could hinder the significant progress made in reducing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoking rates in recent years. Investment in early prevention activities saves on the provision of complex care into the future. These programmes also address and have started to make inroads into primary prevention, particularly in healthy eating, nutrition and physical activity.

This report recommended:

1. That the findings of the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Measures Survey (NATSIHMS) are used to better target chronic conditions that are undetected in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. In particular, access to appropriate primary health care services to detect, treat and manage these conditions should be increased.
Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services should be the preferred services for this enhanced, targeted response.

2. That the Australian Government should continue to lead the COAG Closing the Gap Strategy.

3. That the Australian Government revisit its decision to discontinue the National Indigenous Drug and Alcohol Committee.

4. That connections between the Indigenous Advancement Strategy and the Closing the Gap Strategy are clearly articulated and developed in recognition of their capacity to mutually support the other’s priorities, including closing the health and life expectancy gap.

5. That the Tackling Indigenous Smoking programme is retained and funding is increased above current levels to enable consolidation, improvement and expansion of activities until the gap in the rates of smoking between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous people closes.

6. That proxy indicators are developed to provide insights into the use and availability of health services on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and life expectancy outcomes.

7. The National Strategic Framework for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples’ Mental Health and Social and Emotional Wellbeing provides the basis for a dedicated Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mental health and social and emotional wellbeing plan. This is developed and implemented with the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Plan, the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Suicide Prevention Strategy 2013 and the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples’ Drug Strategy implementation processes in order to avoid duplication, be more efficient, and maximise opportunities in this critical field.

8. That Closing the Gap Targets to reduce imprisonment and violence rates are developed, and activity towards reaching the Targets is funded through justice reinvestment measures.

9. That the Implementation Plan for the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Plan include the essential elements:
* Set targets to measure progress and outcomes;
* Develop a model of comprehensive core services across a person’s whole of life;
* Develop workforce, infrastructure, information management and funding strategies based on the core services model;
* A mapping of regions with relatively poor health outcomes and inadequate services. This will enable the identification of services gaps and the development of capacity building plans;
* Identify and eradicate systemic racism within the health system and improve access to and outcomes across primary, secondary and tertiary health care;
*Ensure that culture is reflected in practical ways throughout Implementation Plan actions as it is central to the health and wellbeing of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people;
* Include a comprehensive address of the social and cultural determinants of health; and
* Establish partnership arrangements between the Australian Government and state and territory governments and between ACCHS and mainstream services providers at the regional level for the delivery of appropriate health services.

Abbott’s second prime ministerial report and statement to the Parliament will be of considerable interest and this morning (11 February 2015) The Australian published an article in which he attempts to soften the public reaction to this year’s report which covers his term as prime minister to date:

TONY Abbott will today declare “profound” disappointment with the nation’s efforts to lift indige­nous Australians out of disadvantage as his centrepiece Closing the Gap report shows stalled progress on half its indicators.

This article also reported:

Gap steering committee co-chair Mick Gooda will hand his own report to the Prime Minister…. It implores the government to maintain momentum on health targets.

Mr Gooda said ­budget decisions — such as cutting smoking programs and a possible GP co-payment — threatened hard-won gains. He also said discussions about federation reform were ­ominous and “could potentially signal a break with the spirit of the 1967 referendum” that had ­addressed the unsuitability of state and territory efforts to reduce indigenous disadvantage.

“It is right that these targets have a long timetable because they won’t be achieved in a year. But we risk going backward if programs that work are sent packing,” he said.

Health targets, he argued, were the base from which all other improvements sprang. They were also linked to the large prevalence of disability in the community.

“Alice Springs Hospital is like a war hospital with the number of amputations they are doing,” he said. “That comes from diabetes and chronic disease. You fix that, you stop contributing to another problem as well.”


UPDATE


Progress against the targets Key findings:

* While there has been a small improvement in Indigenous life expectancy, progress will need to accelerate considerably if the gap is to be closed by 2031.
*  The target to halve the gap in child mortality within a decade is on track to be met.
*  In 2012, 88 per cent of Indigenous children in remote areas were enrolled in a pre-school programme. Data for 2013, to show whether the 95 per cent benchmark for this target has been met, will be available later this year.
*New data on whether enrolled children are actually attending school should also be available later this year.
* Progress against the target to halve the gap in reading, writing and numeracy within a decade has been disappointing. Only two out of eight areas have shown a significant improvement since 2008.
* The target to halve the gap for Indigenous people aged 20–24 in Year 12 or equivalent attainment rates by 2020 is on track to be met.
* No progress has been made against the target to halve the employment gap within a decade.


Based on the last three Closing The Gap prime minister’s reports the following is evident:

Between 1998 and 2013 the gap between mortality rates indigenous children under five and non-indigenous children in this same peer group has narrowed by 35 per cent. Unfortunately there is no data for 2014 in Abbott’s second prime minister’s report.

Indigenous mortality rates dropped by 12% between 1998 and 2011 with the gap between indigenous and non- indigenous mortality staying the same by 2011. Indigenous life expectancy data is drawn from the national census and is only published every five years by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, so the 2013, 2014, and 2015 prime minister’s reports appear to all rely on the same figures.
Reliable up-to-date data on population numbers and life expectancy will not be available until around 2018. 
However, the rate at which indigenous life expectancy is growing is stated to be very slow. National indigenous mortality rates are not included in Abbott’s first prime minister’s report and only go up to 2006 in his second, even though more recent mortality rates are available at Australian Indigenous HealthInfoNet : There were 2,620 deaths in Australia in 2012 where the deceased person was identified as Indigenous [4]. For NSW, Qld, WA, SA and the NT, the only jurisdictions with adequate identification of Indigenous status, the age-standardised death rate of 1,128 per 100,000 population for Indigenous people was 2.0 times the rate for their non-Indigenous counterparts.
More detailed information about death rates is available for the five-year period 2006-2010 for people living in NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA and the NT [5]. After age-adjustment, the death rate for Indigenous people living in those jurisdictions was 1.9 times the rate for non-Indigenous people (Table 1) [5]. The rates for Indigenous people were highest in the NT (1,541 per 100,000) and WA (1,431 per 100,000).

Pre-school enrolment in 2011 was 91%. Preschool enrolment had fallen by 2% since 2012 and was at 85% in 2013. 
It appears to have remained stagnant at that rate since Tony Abbott became prime minister and moved Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander focused programs into the Dept. of Prime Minister and Cabinet. The enrolment target is not being met and, the overall government strategy appears to be failing.

The new baseline for the 2018 indigenous school attendance target appears to be based on data released in December 2014 which shows that; the Indigenous attendance rate was already 90 per cent or above in 2,046 (44 per cent) of the 4,605 schools for which an Indigenous attendance rate was published. The proportion of schools achieving the 90 per cent benchmark for Indigenous attendance in 2014 varies sharply by remoteness: 48 per cent of schools in metropolitan areas, 44 per cent in provincial; 21 per cent in remote and only 14 per cent in very remote areas.

There is still no progress in raising indigenous literacy and numeracy levels above those recorded in 1988 according to Abbott’s 2015 prime minister’s report.
The last three prime minister’s reports rely on NAPLAN data. For example, in the 2014 NAPLAN national report the gap between indigenous and non-indigenous Year 3 students achieving at or above minimum national standards in reading was 20 per cent, for persuasive writing the gap was 19.1 per cent and, the numeracy gap for this same student group was 17.5 per cent. 
However, between 2009 and 2013 across all student bands included in NAPLAN data there have been literacy and numeracy gains for indigenous students.

The Gillard 2013 prime minister’s report stated that; In 2011, the proportion of Indigenous 20-to-24-year-olds with at least Year 12 or Certificate II was 53.9% which was a 6.5 percentage point increase on 2006 figures. 
According to the Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey (AATSIHS) quoted in Abbott’s first prime minister’s report; 59.1 per cent of Indigenous 20–24 year olds had a Year 12 or equivalent qualification in 2012–13, which represents a rise of 13.7 percentage points from 45.4 per cent in 2008
His second report indicates that the gap narrowed to 28 percentage points in 2012-13. There appears to be no data for his term in office.

Comparing both of Abbott’s prime minister’s reports it appears that his 2015 report contains no new data for the 2013-14 financial year, so the decline in the indigenous employment rate may possibly have deepened since September 2013.

Looking for the chastened and transformed Tony Abbott


Word cloud created from Tony Abbott’s public utterances on 9 February 2015

On Monday 9 February 2014 Anthony John ‘Tony’ Abbott declared he had become a new version of himself – a chastened and transformed Australian prime minister.

In the space of a day he made a statement, called a press conference and took part in a televised interview.

I looked for this changed man in the many hundreds of words he spoke, but there was no true self-awareness on display, no empathy or understanding shown, no genuine acceptance of responsibility and no indication of a real intention to change.

The one positive was that, after years of fiscal scaremongering, he finally admitted that in essence, we are a strong economy.

However, his punitive and unfairly targeted first budget he repeatedly described as bold and ambitious.

Abbott continued to blame Labor for the entire budget black hole. The billions that have been added to the public debt bottom line, and the growing cash deficit,  since he took the reins of government apparently don’t exist for him.

He told us all that I've never been a skite as a preface to his favourite mantra; we said we'd get rid of the carbon tax. It's gone. We said we'd stop the boats. They've stopped. We've said we'd build the roads… the roads are going ahead.

He was silent on what might happen concerning the higher education ‘reforms’, new unemployment regulations and cash transfer payment cuts contained in the 2014-15 Budget.

He has not forsaken the latest version of Medicare co-payments for visiting a GP – all he promises is that there will be no new Medicare policies without the broad backing of the medical profession. Not a mention of seeking a mandate from the electorate.

In a strange turn of phrase, Abbott promised that we will socialise decisions before we finalise them and that way we're more likely to take the people with us.

There was little mention of other government policy except for a couple of sentences on small business tax cuts and child care payments. Instead, the ‘old’ Abbott (who appears to believe that political pugilism trumps policy development every time) was in full view as he boasted; I am a fighter. I know how to beat Labor Party leaders. I beat Kevin Rudd, I beat Julia Gillard, I can beat Bill Shorten as well.

Tuesday, 10 February 2015

So 59.80% of the federal parliamentary Liberal Party decided to fall in behind the Fool on the Hill?


Apparently federal Liberal Party of Australia members of parliament and senators are so divorced from political reality, that they voted not to bring on a leadership spill on 9 February 2015. A spill which would have declared the leader position vacant and opened the way for the installation of a new prime minister.

For the rest of Australia, who will have to wear this folly, as Tony Abbott goes into eighteen months of continuous election campaigning sans policy (intending to shaft voters a second time around if he is re-elected in late 2016), here is a quick pictorial brushstroke, drawn from that source of all 'electronic graffitti', revealing how the Fool on the Hill progressed towards and through #libspill.




* Apologies to those cartoonists whose names may not be included in these images