Rain predicted across NSW from today but it's not all good news - may be landslips, fallen trees & flash flooding on land burnt by bushfire since August 2019

Weather Update: Heavy rain and the potential dangerous impacts to fire grounds in NSW and East Victoria.

Video is current at 12pm AEDT 14 Jan 2020.

Info: https://t.co/t2CaglH2RW and follow advice from emergency services.#nswfires #vicfires #ausfires @NSWRFS @VicEmergency pic.twitter.com/zQrk6RAa4s

— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) January 14, 2020

NSW Bushfire Emergency Declaration covering the Clarence Valley has been revoked as fires begin to diminsh

Bushfires in the Clarence Valley are diminishing.

So the Section 44 Bushfire Emergency declation declared in August 2019 when the NSW Rural Fire Service was battling around twenty fires a day - many caused by hazard reduction burns on private land which ran out of control - was revoked last week.

Although the fire grounds have contracted significantly, the Myall Creek Road and Washpool National Park fires are still burning and peat in the Shark Creek area is also still alight.

However, these fires have been listed as under control for some weeks.

Valley residents should still keep an eye open for new fire activity, because forewarned is forearmed for our scattered communities.

Since June 2019 an est. 548,698 hectares have burned in a local government area comprising a total of 1,044,996 hectares. That is almost 53 per cent of the Clarence Valley land mass affected by fire to date.

The fires kicked off in a big way in September when the Shark Creek fire entered Yuraygir National Park and spread to threaten Angourie and Wooloweyah with one spot fire burning as far north as the vicinity of the Yamba community pool before being controlled.

Then in October-November the Nymboida region began to blaze, quickly followed by the spread of the Myall Creek Road fire into the Valley, then Washpool National Park began to burn and Woombah through to the New Italy area as well as Bunjalung National Park lit up - creating even larger fire grounds.

Now on Wednesday 15 January 2020 the smoke has gone, the air is clean, in the Lower Clarence River the water remains clear and, popular beaches along the Clarence Coast are much as they were before the bushfire emergency began.

During the Christmas holidays the tourists came back, so there are small children in rashies, young women in sarongs & sandals and proud local grandparents showing off their visiting grandkids once more peopling our streets.

But all is not well. 

We can easily count how many homes, sheds and how much community infrastructure we've lost in the Valley and, eventually money will rebuild much of what is gone.

Trying to gauge the degree of loss of natural landscapes, wildlife biodiversity and cultural sites - and what that means to us as regional communities - will be much harder.

The Clarence Valley may find itself changed forever. 

Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan appears to have drunk the #ArsonEmergency Conspiracy Kool Aid

In which Nationals MP for Page Kevin Hogan decides that a fire believed to have started on Friday 4 October 2019 in the Busbys Flat area was deliberately lit.

Pre-empting the results of Strike Force Cleander investigations into that fire of unknown origin. Such fires are as a matter of course treated as suspicious and investigated.

In addition Hogan claims that: "Over 50% of the recent fires burning in New South Wales did not start by natural causes."

Neglecting to point out that most human-induced fire ignitions are not arson but accidental ignitions, often caused by people being reckless in the handling of a small fire but without malicious intent.

From the rather dodgy figures he presents it seems that Hogan is a fan of the Murdoch press.

Myself I prefer to believe not clickbait journalism but an authorities with some gravitas:

According to NSW Rural Fire Service spokesman Ben Shepherd the vast majority of major fires in the state since August 2019 were the result of lightning storms and "The Country Fire Association (CFA) said the majority of fires were not arson-related. "Most of the fires have been caused by lightning," said Brett Mitchell, the CFA incident controller in Bairnsdale, in East Gippsland. "Our intelligence suggests there are no deliberate lightings that we are aware of."

For good measure in his media release the Member for Page also throws in the standard political lies denying the Abbott-Turnbull- Morrison Government's woeful track record on national greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Kevin John Hogan

Reading the media release set out below, one should remember it was written by a member of the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison Government since 2013 - a man who has always voted for every piece of legislation which revoked, dismantled or hobbled pre-September 2013 acts of Parliament which sought to establish a genuine response to climate change.

This is a politician who helped create the conditions which led to the mega fires burning across Australia since the start of the 2019-20 bushfire  season.

And like his political masters he seeks to shift the blame for the almost 5 million hectares ravaged by fire, the thousands of homes destroyed or fire damaged*, the est. billion wildlife killed**, the huge stock losses and a growing roll of the needless early deaths of ordinary people caught in the path of these bushfires.

Kevin Hogan was part of a federal government which did this.....

Financial Review, 11 January 2020:

A federal government plan to prepare for the dire effects of climate change-related natural disasters was left to gather dust in the Department of Home Affairs for 1½ years before catastrophic bushfires hit last month.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework warned the changing climate was exposing the country to natural disasters on ‘‘unimagined scales, in unprecedented combinations and in unexpected locations’’.

It warned more and more people and assets would be exposed to these disasters, with essential services – including power, water, telecommunications and financial services – particularly vulnerable.

‘‘As a result, the cost of disasters is increasing for all sectors of society – governments, industry, business, not-for-profits, communities and individuals,’’ the report warned.

But in the 1½ years since its publication in mid-2018 – weeks before the leadership coup in which then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull was replaced by Scott Morrison – the federal government has taken little tangible action, and has failed to publish the national implementation plan promised for 2019.....

The misleading media release at kevinhogan.com.au, 7 January 2020: 

Federal Member for Page, Kevin Hogan has today called for tougher penalties for arsonists in the wake of recent bushfires across the country. 

Kevin Hogan said over 180 suspected arsonists have been charged in NSW and QLD over the past 12 months alone. Over 50% of the recent fires burning in NSW did not start by natural causes. 

“The fire that took out Rappville and has caused community and environmental carnage, from New Italy to Woombah and out past Whiporie, was deliberately lit.” 

“While we can do more on hazard reduction burning and are doing more on cutting emissions, if someone deliberately lights a fire on a total fire ban day, people, properties and wildlife are going to be lost,” Kevin Hogan said. 

The NSW Government has set the non-parole time for arson at 9 years. I believe this needs to be at least doubled. The distress and damage done to homes, infrastructure and the environment by these fires demands this. 

“Potential arsonists need to be sent a strong message, that because of the damage they are causing, they will be heavily punished. I will be lobbying my state colleagues on this,” Kevin Hogan said. 

How can you help? If you see something that looks out of place, record the details of vehicles such as the make, model and registration of suspicious vehicles. Also take note of the appearance of anyone acting suspiciously. 

Report suspicious behaviour to Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000.

 Authorised by Kevin Hogan MP, National Party of Australia, Lismore, NSW
[my yellow highlighting]

Note:

* Latest NSW Infrastructure Impact Assessment as of 10 January 2019

** An estimation drawn up by Australian Academy of Science Fellow, Professor Chris Dickman, which includes. mammals. birds and reptiles but does not include  bats, frogs, insects or other invertebrates.

When even a high-end jeweller has a better understanding of climate change threat than the Australian Coalition Government

Advertisement placed in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on 11 November 2020:

Image: @BevanShields

Tiffany & Co. was established in New York in 1837 by Charles Lewis Tiffany and John B. Long. In 1987 it became a public company.

Centrelink lives up to its growing reputation for incompetence

The Sydney Morning Herald, 10 January 2019:

Confused and angry locals doing it tough in bushfire-ravaged NSW towns have been denied government relief payments due to outdated maps and technicalities.

Upset residents told The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and Nine News they applied for the $1000 tax-free disaster recovery payment, only for Centrelink to knock it back because their "guide maps" showing the fire zone were out of date.

And several workers on the NSW South Coast whose employers have closed or reduced staffing levels due to a combination of fires, power outages, road closures and evacuations said they were also rejected by Centrelink.

Mogo resident Melinda Evans said she had been told by four Centrelink workers she was "not in the area [affected by bushfires] ... They're looking at their own map but if you look around here you can tell we're in the thick of it".

On New Year's Eve, fire tore through her rural property, destroying sheds and fences and affecting the health of Ms Evans' young son Michael.

"His breathing's terrible, he's stuffy, he's got a cough. There's nothing else we can do about it, there's nowhere else we can go."....

Read the full article here.

Lies and misinformation about Australian fires being spread on social media in January 2020

"Arson is the act of intentionally and maliciously destroying or damaging property through the use of fire." [Australian Institute of Criminology, 9 November 2004]

The first response of hard right politicians and climate change deniers when faced with the effects of climate change is to resort to lies and misdirection.

This has begun to occur with a vengeance in 2020 with exaggerated claims concerning arson during the 2019-20 bushfire season.

ABC News, 8 January 2020: 

Australia's bushfire emergency is being exploited on social media, as misinformation is spread through cyberspace via hundreds of thousands of posts. 

Out-of-date photos of survivors and inaccurate fire maps have been widely shared, including by international celebrities. 

As authorities fight the flames on firegrounds around the country, an ABC investigation has revealed a battle of a very different kind online. 

One area of misinformation has been the hashtag #ArsonEmergency on Twitter. 

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) researcher Dr Timothy Graham analysed 315 accounts posting #ArsonEmergency and said a third of them displayed highly-automated and inauthentic behaviour. 

INFOGRAPHIC: Tweets downplaying climate change were shared tens of thousands of times. 

He said the topic appeared to be attracting a "suspiciously high number of bot-like and troll-like accounts". 

The ABC found many of the suspicious accounts were amplifying unproven suggestions arson had been the overwhelming cause of Australia's disastrous bushfire season. 

Several Twitter users were misrepresenting a media report about police investigating whether some of the fires were deliberately lit, despite the same report noting the blazes on the NSW South Coast were likely caused by lightning strikes. 

Some incorrectly quoted Australian police as having dismissed the link between the fires and climate change. An article posted by an American far-right figure went one step further, claiming left-wing ecoterrorists were responsible for lighting the blazes.... 

Read the full article here.

The Guardian, 8 January 2019:

Victoria police say there is no evidence any of the devastating bushfires in the state were caused by arson, contrary to the spread of global disinformation exaggerating arsonist arrests during the current crisis.

A misleading figure suggesting 183 arsonists have been arrested “since the start of the bushfire season” spread across the globe on Wednesday, after initial reports in News Corp were picked up by Donald Trump Jr, US far-right websites and popular alt-right personalities.....

Queensland police said between 10 September and 8 January there had been 1,068 reported bushfires in the state, of which 114 had been deliberately or maliciously lit through human involvement and have been subject to police enforcement action.....

NSW police statistics show 24 individuals have been arrested for deliberately lighting bushfires during the current fire season.

But a Rural Fire Service spokesman told Sky News on Wednesday that the majority of the larger fires in the state were caused by lightning, and that arson was a relatively small source of ignition.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 10 January 2020:

A News Corp employee has slammed the organisation for its "irresponsible", "dangerous" and "damaging" coverage of the national bushfire crisis, urging executive chairman Michael Miller to think about the "big picture".

In an email distributed to News Corp Australia staff and addressed to Mr Miller, commercial finance manager Emily Townsend said she had been filled with anxiety and disappointment over the coverage, which had impacted her ability to work.

Ms Townsend, who has worked for News Corp Australia for five years, thanked Mr Miller for the email about fundraising initiatives in relation to the fires, but said the efforts did not offset the company's coverage of the bushfires.

"I have been severely impacted by the coverage of News Corp publications in relation to the fires, in particular the misinformation campaign that has tried to divert attention away from the real issue which is climate change to rather focus on arson (including misrepresenting facts)," she said.

"I find it unconscionable to continue working for this company, knowing I am contributing to the spread of climate change denial and lies. The reporting I have witnessed in The Australian, The Daily Telegraph and Herald Sun is not only irresponsible, but dangerous and damaging to our communities and beautiful planet that needs us more than ever to acknowledge the destruction we have caused and start doing something about it."….

After the email leaked, Ms Townsend said she felt compelled to send it to Mr Miller's email group because of the "sickening" coverage the media organisation had given to the bushfires.

"Everything I said in the email I stand by. I feel sick, not because the email has been circulated but because I have been contributing to this deception by continuing to work for this organisation. I haven't been able to sleep, this has really preoccupied my thinking; it is unconscionable what this company has been doing when it comes to climate change," she said.

Ms Townsend's comments follow an influx of false and misleading posts spread on social media websites this week about the cause of the bushfires, which have raised concerns among politicians and academics....

It would not surprise me to find that Tophan Guerin - contracted by Scott Morrison to handle his social media election campaign in 2019 - had a hand in starting this fake news conflagration which News Corp has vigorously stoked on a daily basis.

NSW recorded crime statistics for the 2019-20 financial year will not be available before July this year. However, arson statistics for the 24 months up to September 2019 are publicly available.

These statistics show that there was a -36.1% trend fall in the total number of persons taken to court on arson related charges in those 24 months.

As of end September 2019 the NSW arson rate was 62.8 per 100,000 head of population.

According to NSW Rural Fire Service spokesman Ben Shepherd the vast majority of major fires in the state since August 2019 were the result of lightning storms.

A more realistic picture of what has been happening on the ground since August 2019 can be found on the NSW Police website and in online media articles under The Sydney Morning Herald and The Guardian mastheads, rather than posts or tweets with the hashtag #ArsonEmergency.

In the 23 locations listed below only 8 had fires which met the definition of arson and, of these only 6 involved grass or bushland fires.

Information from NSW Police website & non-News Corp mainstream media articles:

Wednesday 21 August 2019

* Three girls aged 12, 13 and 14 allegedly set fire to grasslands on thirteen occasions in the Kempsey area of the mid-North Coast, Grasslands which at the time were being controlled by NSWRFS.

Monday 11 November 2019

* 27 year old man during a total fire ban allegedly lit a campfire at Wallacia in the Sydney outer western metropolitan region.

Tuesday 12 November 2019

* 35 year old man living at Prestons in the Sydney outer western metropolitan region allegedly burned fence palings in a cylindrical BBQ causing a fire.

* Man living in Laylor Park in the Sydney outer western metropolitan region allegedly lit a coal BBQ during a total fire ban.

* 9 year old boy allegedly set grass alight with blowtorch causing a grass fire behind a street in Nowra on the South Coast.

Wednesday 13 November 2019

* 5 men in different locations were allegedly found to be breaching total fire bans by lighting barbeque fires, incinerating rubbish or lighting a candle at a campsite.

Thursday 14 November 2019

*51 year old man allegedly attempted a backburn to protect his cannabis crop and lost control of the fire which spread across est. 5,400ha in the Ebor region.

Tuesday 26 November 2019

* 19 year old NSWRFS volunteer firefighter charged with allegedly starting seven fires in the Bega Valley on the South Coast between October 17 and November 26

Saturday 30 November 2019

* 15 year old girl and 23 year old man allegedly set fire to a grandstand in Orange, destroying est. about 40% of the structure.

Thursday 5 December 2019

* 40 year old man allegedly deliberately set fire to grass on a vacant lot in Telarah on the Central Coast.

Sunday 22 December 2019

* Reserve at Wellington in the central west of the state caught fire and a number of boys were allegedly seen running from the area. An 11 year old boy attended Wellington Police Station in relation to the incident.

* Two 18 year old men allegedly set off fireworks in Bright Park, Guildford  (Sydney) causing grass fires.

Thursday 26 December 2019

* 71 year old man allegedly lit fire for land clearance/fire break without permit/notice and permited fire to escape his land in Deua River Valley causing extensive fire damage to nearby Wandera State Forest (>100ha) and Monga National Park on the South Coast. This fireground merged with other fires, eventually covering est. 83,425ha and was still listed as out of control on 10 January 2020.

Friday 27 December 2019

* 23 year old man allegedly deliberately lit two fires in bushland at Neath and Aberdare in the Lower Hunter Valley region.

Monday 30 December 2019

* 18 year old man charged with 5 counts of malicious damage after allegedly setting fire to 3 cars and 3 garbage bins in the township of Raymond Terrace in the Hunter Valley.

Thursday 2 January 2020

* 84-year-old man on a rural property at Kalkite in the Southern Highlands allegedly lit a fire for land clearance/fire break without permit/notice.

Saturday 4 January 2020

* 63 year old man living in Cooma in the Snowy Mountains region allegedly had a small fire burning in a shallow pit dug into the ground in his backyard for the purposes of cooking.

Sunday 5 January 2020

* 38 year old man and his companion allegedly started a small scrub fire in the Taro area of the Hunter Valley after a cooking fire ignited brush.

* 44 year old man allegedly lit fires for land clearance/fire break without permit/notice and set fire to the property at Countegany in the Southern Highlands.

Friday 10 January 2020

* 40 year old man allegedly set alight two metal drums filled with plastic at Schofields in Sydney’s western suburbs, during a total fire ban.

Cartoon of the Week

Lindsay Foyle