La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH has begun.

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Climate Driver Update, media release, 14 March 2023:

Current status: EL NIÑO WATCH

La Niña has ended - ENSO now neutral. El Niño WATCH issued

• La Niña has ended in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with oceanic and atmospheric indicators having returned to neutral ENSO levels.

• International climate models suggest neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist through the southern autumn. However, there are some signs that El Niño could form later in the year. Hence the Bureau has issued an El Niño WATCH. This means there is a 50% chance of an El Niño in 2023.

• The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently very strong over the Pacific Ocean but is forecast to move into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming fortnight. This may bring drier conditions to Australia for the latter half of March.

• The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently strongly negative but is expected to return to neutral values over the coming weeks.

• Warmer than average sea surface temperatures persist around south-east Australia, New Zealand and the west coast of Australia, but close to average temperatures prevail around northern Australia.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral – the IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate while the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (typically December to April). Forecasts for the IOD made at this time of the year have low accuracy beyond April.

• Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climates. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C over the period 1910–2021. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10 to 20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades.

Six months before the loss of government & his prime mininstership, sinophobe Scott Morrison signed Australia up to the tripartite AUKUS security pact & now those in the mainstream media who backed him whilst in office are beginning to beat the war drums

 

CEO former Australian citizen Rupert Murdoch, News Corp:

The Australian, 14 March 2023

‘It’s more than one plus one plus one’, from the pen of Canberra Bureau Chief Joe Kelly

…..“The sum of the three is more than one plus one plus one in this case,” Mr Albanese said.

“And I think that the co-operation we’ve had is really exciting. “We see that this is an investment in our capability. At the same time, of course, we’re investing in our relationships in the region as well.

“And I’ve been talking with other leaders in the region, as well, explaining our position. And it’s been well-received and understood why we’re doing this. It builds on our long-term relationship.” Mr Sunak said the deal was “about our commitment to the Pacific region, which, even though it’s geographically a long way from where we are, it’s important in a way to demonstrate our commitment to the values that we hold dear as countries.” Mr Albanese began his day with a walk alongside Chief of Navy Mark Hammond, declaring: “It’s a new dawn in San Diego, and it will be a new dawn in Australian defence policy tomorrow.” Before his trip to the US for the AUKUS announcement, Mr Sunak expressed concern about China’s future direction and role in the international system.

“It’s a country with fundamentally different values to ours, and I think over the last few years it’s become increasingly authoritarian at home and assertive abroad,” the British Prime Minister was quoted as saying in a report in The Wall Street Journal.

“It’s behaviour suggests it has the intention – but also its actions show it is interested in reshaping the world order. And that’s the crux of it.” Mr Sunak told The Wall Street Journal that threats to security were increasing. “The world has become a more volatile place,” he said. “What we need to do as allies is out-cooperate and out-compete our adversaries.” …..

‘Epoch-defining challenge’, from the pen of North Asia correspondent Will Glasgow

The hugely expensive project to acquire “world-leading” nuclear submarine capability – likely to cost hundreds of billions of dollars – is a key plank in the response by America and its allies to the massive build-up of the capabilities of China’s People’s Liberation Army over the past decade. Beijing last week further ramped up military spending by more than 7 per cent to more than $330bn. There is widespread support for the AUKUS project in Taipei. Lo Chih-Cheng, a member of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said Taiwan’s government saw the security pact as part of a crucial effort to change Beijing’s calculus on ever using force in an attempt to bring the self-ruled island under Communist Party rule.

“Your decision to acquire nuclear submarines and to build up strength in your defence capabilities is conducive to redressing the imbalance that is happening now in the region,” said Mr Lo, a government member of Taiwan’s foreign affairs and national security committee. “We may not be able to stop China’s continuing military ­expansion, but it is imperative for us to stop the continuation of this kind of military imbalance.” Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), also welcomed the submarine acquisition. “We welcome measures to address the future balance of power in the western Pacific. And we would like to see a stronger Western alliance in terms of military capability and technology,” said the KMT’s top international adviser Alexander Huang….

The Age, 14 March 2023:

A partnership on the front foot, from the pen of International editor Peter Hartcher

Australia-India relations are thriving, driven by a mutual mistrust of China and shared economic self-interest.

Among the countries this week raising their voices against Australia's plan for nuclear-propelled submarines, you will not hear India, the world's most populous nation and fastest growing major economy….

"India did not object to AUKUS when it was announced," explains a leading Indian strategic analyst, C. Raja Mohan, because "it had no reason to. Stronger deterrence against China on the east is welcome for India," says the senior fellow of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

If you wondered why Australia's relations with India are suddenly booming - beyond the stale comforts of curry, cricket and the Commonwealth - the shared imperative of deterring the Chinese Communist Party's adventurism is key. That is the only reason Australia is arming itself with nuclear-propelled submarines…..

CEO former Liberal federal treasurer Peter Costello, Nine Entertainment Co: 

The Canberra Times, 14 March 2023

Be alert and alarmed, but don't be duped on China, from the pen of columnist Crispen Hill

Australians should take special heed of the analysis of the noted defence strategist Peter Jennings and then draw the exact opposite conclusion from his about what should be done.

Jennings, who for 10 years was executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and was a deputy secretary of the Department of Defence, was one of five defence experts lined up by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in a series titled Red Alert. Its aim was to provide a more public discussion about Australia's defence needs than what will come out of the secretive Defence Strategic Review. And it was widely taken up by other media.

The five's conclusion was to expect war with China sooner rather than later because China was determined to take over Taiwan by force if necessary. The US would then move militarily to defend Taiwan and Australia would have to join in.

Jennings pointed out that in the first 72 hours, China could fire missiles (with or without nuclear warheads) on the naval fleet bases in Sydney and Perth, on RAAF bases near Brisbane and Darwin, and on communications bases near Alice Springs and Exmouth, among other targets.

The five concluded that war with China was almost inevitable and Australia needed an urgent massive upgrade and spend on its military and must maintain and strengthen its alliance with the US.

Those conclusions defy logic. Surely if Australian cities are going to be bombed because we are mad enough to follow the US blindly into a conflict that has nothing to do with us, the better course of action would be not to follow the US into that war and to loosen the ties with the US so that Australia could have its own defence policy and aims.

And the main aim should be to avoid war…..

BACKGROUND

X-Services News Pty Ltd

Australian Veteran News, 1 December 2021:

Made in Taiwan: Scott Morrison has concocted a phony war with China to take to the next election from the pen of Leo DiAngelo Fisher

“Even as Australia licks its wounds from the ignominy of the fruitless war in Afghanistan, arguably Australia’s most pointless war, the Morrison government is paving the way for a costlier, deadlier and even more contentious conflagration. This time the trumped up military foe is China….

Antagonising China – never a difficult task – has been a hallmark of the Morrison government. At first blush this might easily be attributed to the government’s diplomatic and foreign policy ineptitude. And there is that. Morrison is not a deep thinker on most fronts and especially when it comes to foreign affairs. This is a government that has wantonly sidelined diplomats and policy experts within the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade – how else to explain the AUKUS debacle? – in the belief that every decision by a government is political and in the moment.

There is none so one-dimensionally political as Scott Morrison. Morrison is not a prime minister troubled by the “vision thing”. His vision rarely extends beyond the next set of headlines. For Morrison, each day is a stepping stone to the next election.

That is the only prism through which the Morrison government’s incessant goading of China can be viewed. Australia’s historical bogeyman of choice, the “yellow peril”, has been reprised with unblushing enthusiasm by this government.

The Morrison government has deliberately and relentlessly fanned tensions with China: the more it riles China, the angrier China becomes, the more tangible the threat of war becomes.

Dutton used his recent National Press Club address to raise the prospect of war with China over the future of Taiwan.

Under Dutton’s Doomsday scenario, an “aggressive” China is poised to invade Taiwan, which it considers a renegade territory. Left unchallenged, an emboldened China would inevitably seek to wrest control of the disputed Senkaku Islands, currently administered by Japan, in the East China Sea.

“If Taiwan is taken, surely the Senkakus are next,” Dutton gratuitously speculated with overtones of the discredited “domino theory” of the 1950s and 60s, which mired the West, including Australia, in futile conflicts in Indochina.

Such was the ominous tenor of Dutton’s address as he mounted the case against China.

Protecting old growth trees and saving Banyabba Koalas in March 2023

 

The Echo, 10 March 2023:

View over Valerie’s boots at the logging taking place in Doubleduke State Forest. Photo supplied

The magnificent old trees in a grove known as the Gully of the Giants are still standing this morning. They might not be so lucky tomorrow. The trees are part of Doubleduke State Forest, west of Evan’s Head, being logged under the auspices of the NSW Government’s Forestry Corporation.

Logging couldn’t go ahead this morning because yesterday, Save Banyabba’s Koalas Valerie Thompson, bought the ‘Gully Giants’ a reprieve. Logging was unable to commence due to the logging machinery having been ‘captured’ by the ropes suspending Valerie’s tree platform.

‘I relish the opportunity to spend the night in the forest. I’m hoping I will hear a forest owl or the screech of a yellow-bellied glider, or maybe the bellow of a koala,’ said Valerie.

‘These animals are why I’m here. They depend on the hollows in these old trees to survive. When the trees go, the animals will go too. It could be 100 years until there are trees big enough to provide the size hollows they need.

Some ‘Giants’ already gone

‘At the moment it’s not looking good. We had hoped that the Forestry Corporation would leave these giants, but we’ve seen one on a log truck and another in the log dump.

‘I felt compelled to do something, hoping against hope that as a result of my helping to bring this travesty to public attention someone in authority might be prepared to negotiate. I understand a formal complaint is being submitted today about Forestry’s breaches and calling for an immediate Stop Work Order. I’d be happy to free the machines if they’ll let the old trees live in peace.’

As Valerie sits in the tree waiting for the police to do the bidding of the Forestry Corporation, Greens Senator Janet Rice, is introducing legislation into the Federal Parliament to end native forest logging.

The Ending Native Forest Logging 2023 Bill ‘If passed, will immediately halt the destruction of Australia’s precious native forests and close the loophole used by the logging industry to skirt our national environment laws,’ said Senator Rice.

Valerie said that according to the Australian National University survey the majority of Australians want the logging of native forests to stop….. 

Wednesday 14 March 2023 Save Banyabba Koalas announced on Facebook that:

A very small crew off protectors just faced of an angry crew of Forestry corp workers keeping them away from the Old Growth in Doubleduke Forest.

We need numbers to keep them out for good

#StandUp4Forests

#EndNativeForestLogging

#savebanyabbakoalas

Images: Save Banyabba Koalas

Who is going to tell Clarence Valley Council that they are being a tad overly optimistic about the long-term outcomes from this roadwork?

 

Clarence Valley Council Noticeboard, 10 March 2023:

Low-lying section of Yamba Road to be raised

Yamba Road will have increased flood immunity under the Regional Roads and Transport Recovery Package co-funded by the NSW and Federal governments.

A grant of almost $10 million announced 02 March will go towards raising Yamba Road between Harwood Bridge and Palmers Channel by approximately one metre. This low spot is typically the first section of Yamba Road to close during riverine flooding.

Once complete, Yamba and surrounding communities will experience significantly less days of isolation during floods. The betterment will eliminate road closures for flood events of 10 per cent annual exceedance probability or less, compared to up to 72 hours under current conditions.

IMAGE: The intersection of Yamba Road and South Bank Road was inundated for several days during the February/March 2022 floods.

In the end the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme left Scott Morrison & his minions nowhere to hide

 

On 23 December 2014 the Liberal MP for Cook Scott ‘Stop The Boats’ Morrison moved ministerial portfolios – ceasing to be the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection (a first ministerial position he had held for 15 months & 4 days) and becoming the Minister for Social Services.

Twenty-nine days later in the parliamentary recess he took part in a Sky News radio interview that contains this exchange:

RICHARDSON: You were not put in there to be a pussycat. You are in there to do some hard things. You would not have been put there otherwise. All the predictions were you were going to defence. I wouldn’t have put you in defence if I was the boss, I think he has been sensible doing this and I think this or health would have been where I had shoved you because you have got to go where there are jobs to be done and messages to be sold. Who are you going to crackdown on because a bloke like you is not going to sit there and do nothing. Does that mean that anyone on the dole has got to look out?

MINISTER MORRISON: Anyone who is trying to rip it off does. Anyone who is trying to rip off the welfare system because every benefit paid is paid for by another taxpayer. On average an Australian who works is working a whole month to pay for someone else’s benefits. There are a broad range of people that need and deserve our support whether those on the aged pension who have worked hard all their life and had a clear deal as they went through life that if they worked hard there would be an age pension at the other end. Now I think retirement incomes have changed a lot since then for people like me when I come to retire and my generation but that said all the way to those who have real disabilities, those who are looking after people as carers and I think Australians generally are quite happy to have a system that helps people who are genuinely in need and deserve our support. But what they won’t cop just like they won’t cop people coming on boats, they are not going to cop people who are going to rort that system. So there does need to be a strong welfare cop on the beat and I will certainly be looking to do that but I will be doing that because I want to make sure this system helps the people who most need it……

RICHARDSON: I really wish you all the best and it was always a problem for me and I always worried about it but there aren’t as you know in government once you get there not every problem is easy to solve. Having covered that, I want to take you more into general politics because I always like to do that with you because as I said you are the tough guy, but you also know which way is up, I think you know the electorate pretty well. I don’t think you live in some on high castle I think you have been pretty good at what you do. Now, are you on this economic review committee, this small sub-committee of cabinet? You are more than a third of the budget, are you on it?

MINISTER MORRISON: Yes I have joined the ERC, that’s right the Expenditure Review Committee. I was previously on the National Security Committee in my previous portfolio and obviously Peter Dutton has taken that on he has done a great job particularly over this last week also dealing with the issues on Manus, but I have taken his place on the ERC and he has taken mine on the NSC….

RICHARDSON: I was on the ERC for a year or two and I remember asking to get off because it takes up an enormous amount of time and if you are a busy Minister it is an enormous position and you know I guess when a third of the budget is yours you have to be there. Now what about these leaks from it, I can recall leaks from our Cabinet back in the Hawke/Keating days but not from the Expenditure Review Committee that is a new thing, you must be pretty disturbed by that.

MINISTER MORRISON: Well look I have only seen the press reports about this Graham and it is important the government remains focussed on the job within ERC and that is to get the budget under control and make sure we have got an economic programme that grows the economy. That is what I am focussed on, I believe that is what the team is focussed on and we will be meeting again soon and we will just get on with the job of preparing for the next budget. We have got matters outstanding from the last budget that are held up in the Senate, that is frustrating. We are going to have to take a good look at quite a number of those measures both in the context of what is currently before the Senate as well as what we seek to recast for the budget that is coming forward particularly in my own area of responsibility. A big area there is going to be child care.

[my yellow highlighting]

Morrison's remarks were immediately picked up by print and online newspapers.

Morrison also alluded to the term “welfare cop” on the floor of the House of Representative on 17 June 2015 when speaking to Appropriations Bill No1 2015-16:

I am pleased to be speaking on the Human Services budget consideration in detail and I acknowledge the fine work of my colleague Senator the Hon. Marise Payne, who is the minister responsible for these areas. Our welfare system, as I was mentioning in the previous discussion, must respect those who pay for it—that is, the taxpayers. Eight out of 10 income taxpayers are required to go to work every day to pay for our welfare system and they deserve two things in particular when it comes to the Human Services portfolio: that the welfare measures will be delivered with integrity, and that they will be delivered with efficiency. That is what they expect. More broadly, as a question of policy in relation to the previous discussion, it must help those who are most in need. In this budget, this government has committed to some significant initiatives that will improve not only the integrity of the welfare payment system and broader payment system for the government and the Human Services portfolio but also its efficiency.

We have said from day one in this portfolio that we have no tolerance whatsoever for those who rort the system. It is crucial that we have a strong welfare cop on the beat, and this budget contains significant measures to boost fraud investigation and compliance activities. Australians must have confidence in the system, just as they must have confidence that the safety net will be there for those who really need it. We have already made progress on welfare integrity, such as having Australian government contracted doctors assess new claims for the DSP to achieve consistency and equity across the country. We have tightened up portability arrangements, so people cannot just head off overseas for as long as they like and continue to pick up the DSP. You do not get an entitlement to holiday pay when you are on the DSP. In 2013-14 the Department of Human Services investigated 411 people for dishonestly claiming DSP, which resulted in $9.5 million in raised debts. We have put more than $200 million in this budget into strengthening our compliance and we have delivered on our promise to have a tougher cop on the beat for welfare. The government is committed to protecting the integrity of the welfare system.

We are also committed to innovation in service delivery. That is why we are replacing the decades-old welfare payment IT system, which too many governments have kicked down the road for too long. Investing in a new system will boost efficiencies and help advance welfare reforms as well as lessen the compliance burden on individuals, employers, service providers and, indeed, beneficiaries.

I commend the Human Services minister and all members who seek to participate in this debate. Above all, in the Human Services portfolio it is all about implementation. It is all about connecting the intent of policy with the beneficiaries of those policies. That has to be done with integrity and it has to be done with efficiency, and I commend Minister Payne for the outstanding job she has been doing in delivering on both of those objectives and providing a clear path for reform for the way forward.

[my yellow highlighting]

That term continued to be alluded to in the mainstream media over the 32 weeks Morrison held the Social Services portfolio. In articles with headlines such as:

Welfare cop to hunt cheats

AFP welfare cop to target cheats

Welfare cop to stop the fraud

Welfare cop to stop dole, pension rorts

Welfare cops now on patrol

Welfare warning

Cop that, dole cheats

Cracking down on disability cheaters

Senior Cop In Benefit Blitz

Disability pensioner numbers dive as Morrison gets tough

It took another 6 years and 9 a bit months before the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme began to reveal the path that was taken which allowed Morrison's toxic attitude to people he saw as 'the other' to develop into entire government departments and agencies colluding in his personal war on the poor and vulnerable.

The Saturday Paper, 11 March 2023:

The crucial moment came in a radio interview. Scott Morrison was a month into his portfolio as minister for Social Services when he announced a crackdown on welfare. This set off a chain of events still being resolved today. From the outset, robo-debt was the expression of a political desire.

By 2pm that same day, January 22, 2015, Department of Human Services deputy secretary Malisa Golightly had emailed a link of the full interview to her boss, Kathryn Campbell.

In the witness box at the robo-debt royal commission this week, Campbell agreed Morrison’s statement was “significant” because it indicated the direction he intended to take the portfolio.

Ten days later, the then Human Services minister, Marise Payne, in a meeting with Campbell, made an entry in her notebook that indicated they had discussed this welfare crackdown. Her notes record a decisive observation: “What can we do w/o having to legislate?”

This, perhaps, is the original sin of the debt recovery program known as robo-debt. The desire to go after welfare recipients for “easy” budget savings was to be done without new laws and this absence of new laws would mean the fundamental welfare assessment changes in what would become robo-debt could never be legal.

The Department of Social Services was already aware of an automatic pay-as-you-go (PAYG) “clean-up” proposal that had risen from the bowels of DHS to the most senior people. It had already declared it, with internal legal advice, to be unlawful in late 2014. DSS advised as much in an executive minute that went to Morrison on February 12, 2015, which listed a range of options. He circled “pursue”. And that was that.

Everything that followed this moment can be seen through the light of the panic of highly paid and “responsive” public servants, morphed into political servants by their own considerable ambition, willing to ignore or actively cover-up a program that stalked and tricked vulnerable people by the hundreds of thousands into paying back debts they never owed.....

Read journalist & author Rick Morton's full article here.

Australian twitterverse receives praise from Commissioner heading the Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme

 

Thank you all for your coverage of #RoboDebtRC 👏@lukehgomes 🙏@SquigglyRick 🙏@maximumwelfare 🙏@strangerous10 🙏@DarrenODonovan 🙏

Thank you @Asher_Wolf for kicking off scrutiny of #RoboDebt in the first place 🤩

And a massive THANK YOU to all who followed and cared 🥹💜 https://t.co/lUAonCysN5

— Noely ⚡️🏐 (@YaThinkN) March 10, 2023

 

Recorded remarks made by Commissioner Catherine Holmes AC SC on Friday 10 March 2023, the final day of hearings of the Royal Commissioner into the Robodebt Scheme. The Commission's final report will be delivered in June 2023.

 

MINERAL MINING IN THE CLARENCE CATCHMENT: Clarence Catchment Alliance is holding a media conference at Whiting Beach Carpark, 9am Friday 17 March 2023

 

Click on image to enlarge