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| via X/Twitter 10.07.24 |
So how are we all feeling today? Short answer is — nobody knows for sure what Australia's collective mood is.
However the statisticians tell us that most of us feel out families are "worse off" than they were last year and are not expecting to see "good times" anytime soon.
Many of us are still in the dumps about the cost of living. We are not spending up big and that is reflected in business turnover.
We are doing what Aussies always do in tough times — we gamble a little bit more chasing the rainbow of a home of our own or a car that isn't falling to bits.
Low income families are sometimes having to borrow from family or friends to meet household utility bills, despite small government subsidies for residential electricity.
While the average Internet subscriber is still spending 10 hours a week on entertainment streaming services, it seems quite a few people are now switching to advertising-supported content streaming as a way to shave a few dollars off the weekly budget.
When it comes to looking at economic activity and consumer confidence statisticians rarely mention homelessness or food poverty. The sad fact is that homelessness, housing insecurity and food insecurity are as entrenched as they have ever been and are exacerbated by the sustained rising prices we have experienced for the last two years.
However, Australians statisticians are generally a grounded mob making measured comment. So after reading their reports no-one is yelling from their bedroom windows that the national economic sky is falling on our heads — except Peter Dutton.
Australian Bureau of Statistics media release published 10 July 2024:
Reference period: May 2024
Business turnover in trend terms rose 0.2 per cent in May according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, said: “The pattern we have seen in recent months continues as the business turnover 13-industry aggregate remained flat in May.
“In seasonally adjusted terms, most industries either fell or were flat which resulted in the 13-industry aggregate falling 0.6 per cent.
“Softening the fall, we saw larger rises in Arts and recreation, up 2.8 per cent, and Information media and telecommunications, up 2.6 per cent.”
The Arts and recreation growth was driven by an increase in gambling activity. Information media and telecommunications was driven by the Publishing (except internet and music publishing) subdivision as demand for generative artificial intelligence continues to grow.
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While over at Roy Morgan Research om 9 July 2024:
Finding No. 5920
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.3pts to 79.0 after End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales finish up; buying sentiment indicator has largest weekly drop so far this year
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.3pts to 79.0 this week after the End of Financial Year (EOFY) Sales period finished at the end of June after the buying sentiment indicator suffered its biggest weekly decline so far this year – down a net 9% points from a week ago.
Looking longer-term, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 75 straight weeks below the mark of 85 and is a large 5.7 points above the same week a year ago, July 3-9, 2023 (73.3), but is now 2.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.8.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows the index was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia but virtually unchanged in Queensland.
Views on personal finances compared to a year ago were slightly worse off this week while views on the Australian economy’s performance going forward were virtually unchanged.
Current financial conditions
Now under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
However, views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week, with under a third of Australians, 31% (unchanged) expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 35% (down 1ppt) are expecting to be ‘worse off’.
Short-term economic confidence
In addition, only 8% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 36% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term was virtually unchanged this week with 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to just over a fifth, 21% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
There was a big dip to net buying intentions this week after the End of Financial Year (EOFY) Sales finished up with just over a fifth, 21% (down 4ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the biggest drop for this indicator so far this year) while a majority of 51% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items (the largest increase for this indicator so far this year).
The net result was a movement of 9ppts towards ‘bad time to buy’, the biggest net move down for this indicator for nearly 18 months since early February 2023 after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the first time in 2023.
ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence dropped to its second lowest level for the year. The decline was driven by a 9.0pt fall in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ subindex, following the conclusion of end-of-financial year sales. This was the largest weekly fall in the subindex since February 2023. There was also a 4.7pt drop in ‘current financial conditions’.
Across the housing cohorts, confidence declined most for those paying off a mortgage, perhaps due to talk about the possibility of an RBA rate hike in August. Confidence also fell for households that own their homes outright, while it was broadly stable for renters."
