It doesn't come as a surprise that the federal electorate of Page sees a low return from Morrison & Frydenberg's legislated Stage 3 tax cuts

 

Page is a large electorate covering an area from Sapphire Beach in the south to Nimbin in the north on the coastal side, and from Nymboida in the south to the Queensland border on the inland side. The main towns include Casino, Dunoon, Evans Head, Grafton, Iluka, Kyogle, Lismore, Nimbin, Sapphire Beach and Wooli. [Australian Electoral Commission, 2023]

It is one of only two federal electorates found in the Northern River region of north-east New South Wales.

That section of Page electorate that contains Kyogle local government area (LGA) has a SEIFA Index relative disadvantage score of 910 - most disadvantaged part of the electorate. The section that takes in Richmond LGA has a SEIFA Index score of 902, Clarence Valley section a SEIFA Index score of 926 and Lismore LGA section a SEIFA Index score of 954 - the least disadvantaged score in found in the electorate.

Page electorate receives only $57 million in Stage 3 tax cuts in 2024-25, compared with the metropolitan North Sydney electorate whose residents draw in a total of $331 million in that same financial year and the largest total listed in the The Australian Institute April 2023 discussion paper.

If the discussion paper's projections hold true then around half of that $54 million in tax cuts will be received by less than 7,000 people currently living and working in the Page electorate.

 

The federal electorate of Richmond having a SEIFA Index disadvantage score ranging from 973 to 1,003 did not rate a mention in the discussion paper, so at this point in time we are all left to wonder what portion of the Stage 3 tax cuts come to the people of Tweed, Ballina and Byron LGAs.

According to Regional Development Australia, in 2022 the median weekly income for the est.124,5742 people who live & work in NSW Northern Rivers region was between $800 to $999. Therefore half of those in this regional workforce had weekly incomes between $0 and $799 dollars.

A total of 55 electorates (around 36% of all electorates) will receive a higher-than-average benefit from the Stage 3 tax cuts. Only four of these are Provincial or Rural seats and, importantly, each has characteristics that makes it atypical. Specifically, each of these seats either enjoys significant mining industry employment, which pushes up average earnings, or contains a large number of people commuting to capital cities…..

 “Many lower-income electorates and individuals will get comparatively little from this quarter of a trillion-dollar cost to the budget and those electorates are more likely to be rural and regional.

“People living in National Party seats and in Tasmanian electorates are some of the biggest losers from Stage 3 when compared to their city counterparts.

“At the other end, high income earners are more likely to be clustered in the inner metro areas of our largest capital cities which is why inner metro electorates get the largest benefit from Stage 3.

“The Stage 3 tax cuts will cost more than a quarter of a trillion dollars to the budget, which will only put pressure on funding essential health, education and community programs outside major cities.  [The Australia Institute, Discussion Paper, "Divided nation: The Stage 3 tax cuts broken down by city and country electorates", April 2023]

At the level of the individual; Around half the Stage 3 tax cuts go to those earning over $180,000, with the total plan costing more than a quarter of a trillion dollars ($254b). Those on less than $45,000 per year will get nothing from Stage 3. [The Australia Institute, media release, 19 April 2023] 

According to The Guardian columnist and policy director at the Centre for Future Work, Greg Jericho, median-income earners pay up to $1,500 more in tax in 2022-23 than they did in 2021-22, while around 75% of all taxpayers will pay more tax in 2025 compared with what they did in 2022.

GRAPH: The Guardian, 20 April 2023

This should come as no surprise. However, because the temporary financial 'bridge' created by the low-middle income tax offset (LMITO) was in effect extended twice and increased once, in an effort to sow the seed of another Morrison presidential-style election victory, the collapse of that bridge under its own unsustainable weight was inevitable. A fact perhaps not at the forefront of inequalities being debated during the April-May 2022 election campaign.

Like many of Scott Morrison's policy manoeuvres, the downside was not timed to present itself until post-May 2022. 

Now there is time to reflect on the fact that only those earning over $100,000 per year will see a noticeable change in take home pay under the 'flattened' personal marginal tax rate 

system. 

When it comes to income earners in the 25th ($40k pa) to 50th ($65k pa) percentile ranges they are just planned collateral damage, having got little enough from previous stages of the Morrison-Frydenberg long-term strategy to have those in the highest wealth percentile inherit Australia.

Marginal Tax Rate for 2024-05 and financial years thereafter.

https://atotaxrates.info/individual-tax-rates-resident/ato-tax-rates-2025

Note:

• The tax exempt earned income range of 0 to $18,200 has not changed since 1 July 2012. Nor has the marginal personal tax rate for those earning between $18,201 to $35,000 changed since 1 July 2012 when it was increased by 4 cents to 19 cents for every dollar over $18,000 and, both remain unchanged in the new 2024-05 tax schedule.

• From 1 July 2020 the marginal personal tax rate for individuals then earning between $37,001 to $45,000 fell to 19 cents in every dollar earned over $18,200 and remains unchanged in the new 2024-05 tax schedule.

• For those with a current taxable income of between $45,001 to $120,000 their marginal personal tax rate falls by 2.5 cents to 30 cents in the dollar earned over $45,000 as they enter a different bracket in the new 2024-05 tax schedule.

• While wage earners with a taxable income between $120,001 to $180,000 see their marginal personal tax rate drop by 7 cents to 30 cents in every dollar earned over $120,000 and, those with a taxable income between $180,001 to $200,000 will see their tax rate drop 15 cents to 30 cents in every dollar earned over $180,000 in the new 2024-05 tax schedule.

• When it comes to annual earned income of $200,001 per year and higher, the marginal personal tax rate will be 45 cents in each dollar over $200,000. This tax rate has remained unchanged for this income group since 1 July 2006. However, as is indicated by past media reports those in the highest income brackets in this income group are nothing if not inventive when it comes to how much or how little they pay in personal income tax.

• According to the former Morrison Government: "As a result of the Government’s plan, around 94 per cent of Australian taxpayers are projected to face a marginal tax rate of 30 per cent or less in 2024-25". 

Some of the assumptions on which Morrison and Frydenberg built their new tax system can be found at: 

https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-09/foi_2558_document_set_for_release_re.pdf

Cartoons of the Week

 

Cathy Wilcox

David Pope

Mark David

Sometimes in 2023 humour is all you have left if you live on one of the many once-sealed Northern Rivers roads

Google Earth snapshot, March 2023
Click on image to enlarge

ECHO, 18 April 2023:

I moved to the Byron Shire in 1986, the year this great little paper started expressing the views of our community. I remember back then the complaints about the state of our roads… It’s like this paralysing brain fog descends at the mere mention of our roads, and this has now been going on for decades. Throw in a couple of ‘once in a lifetime weather events’ and now we’ve got 200 road projects in waiting. Is mine one of them?

Yankee Creek Road is only 1.4 kilometres and is a dead end (in more ways than one). Last Monday night I had to tow my friends out after they tried to avoid the craters.

So far this year four different friends have said they cannot visit me anymore because they don’t feel confident negotiating the road.

There are now four sections where you have to drive offroad to avoid the potholes and craters that remain unfixed in the road.

It was really bad before the 28 February and 30 March 2022 floods, but now it’s atrocious.

The repair work to my car last week cost me $1,570; that entailed replacing the strut mounts, shock absorbers, bump stop boot kits, and of course I’m constantly visiting my mates down at Tyre Power!

So, I thought I should wave my feeble hand in the air, and I wrote to the Mayor and all councillors with photos and a detailed description of how bad things are. I did get a response from Sarah Ndiaye and Duncan Dey that the matter had been forwarded on to Byron Shire Council (BSC) staff, but no other confirmation.

Like Navaya Ellis (Echo, 29 March) I would like questions answered. These are: when will someone come and take a look at Yankee Creek Road? What classifies a ‘bad’ road versus a ‘dangerous’ one? What designates a high priority? Is there anybody out there? Yoohoo, drowning not waving!

Gosh, a courteous reply saying my letter had been received would be a good start.

I think I’m experiencing what I’ll coin FF: ‘futility fatigue’. It certainly took me out last year after nine months enduring the endless fob offs from insurance companies.

Yes, I have a beautiful new home, albeit, now a leaky one. Here, I have to thank Byron Council for giving me a ‘Completion Certificate’ when parts of my roof had no flashing – my insurance company sure loves you dudes.

Sorry, I digress… you see FF is insidious because there are so many other people with way worse war stories; I don’t have the right to winge and complain about insurances and roads when others are so much worse off.

Then FF inertia sets in and the paralysing brain fog returns, making any attempt for resolution and clarity feel like crawling across cut glass… best just give up, right?

Nup! Maybe we can generate some income to help BSC, perhaps a new reality TV show called Survivor on North Coast Roads, city dwellers can pay an exorbitant amount to be given four bald tyres and a road map of our worst roads; an experience of a life time! Spine tingling action with search and rescue at the ready.

Mishaela Simpkins, Mullum Creek 

Partial eclipse of the Sun fully visible in Yamba sky at 2:41pm AEST today, Thursday 20 April 2023

 

 With the Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasting partly cloudy sky with a high chance of showers in the Northern Rivers region today, it is probably not the best of days to observe the Moon passing in front of the Sun. 

For Yamba this will only be seen as a partial eclipse covering est. 19 per cent of the Sun, as the full eclipse shadow will only be seen in part of coastal north-west West Australia near Exmouth.

Stages and times of the local view of this eclipse are outlined below. All times are local time (AEST) for Yamba.

GRAPHIC: www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/@11828511?iso=20230420

Search for partial eclipse times and details for your Australian region or town at:

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/2023-april-20

Iluka community plans for emergency management during adverse weather events, including storm and flood, progressing thanks to local ICOPE

Clarence Valley Independent, 12 April 2023:

In a community first for the Clarence Valley, ICOPE – Iluka Community Organisation Planning for Emergencies has been approved to run a Community Managed Evacuation Centre in the event of wild weather or disasters isolating locals.

ICOPE President Cheryl Dimmock said the group had been working with the Clarence Valley Local Emergency Management Committee LEMC since October 2022 to have a Community Managed Evacuation Centre CMEC in Iluka, which would take in residents from Woody Head, The Freshwater, and if access is available, Woombah.

Ms Dimmock said the group was motivated to act to establish the CMEC by the predicted increase in wild weather induced by climate change and the fact Iluka can be isolated for several days in times of flood.

“We had to put an action plan together to present to the LEMC and we’ve had it approved that we could have a Community Managed Evacuation Centre CMEC,” she said.

“ICOPE will be allowed to run the CMEC if it is activated by the Local Emergency Operations Controller (high ranking local police officer).

“The CMEC would be at the Iluka Community Hall in Spencer Street, in the event that it was safe to evacuate to the community hall.

“The reason why we have been so proactive in doing this is because we get cut off, there is only one road in and one road out, we get cut off for days, and we don’t want to see the community in a situation like what has happened in Lismore.”

In addition to the CMEC, Ms Dimmock said ICOPE plans to transform the Iluka Community Hall over the next year.

“We are hoping to work with council to get grants and make improvements to the hall and we’re hoping to have Iluka Community Hall as a hub where the community can actually come…say on a Saturday morning where they can come and have cuppa and a chat about disaster preparedness and community events,” she said.

“We want to encourage the community to prepare for disasters, we don’t want it to be scary, but we want them to prepare and be ready in the event that something happens, that they will know what to do, where to go, and the communication they receive comes from one central place, so they are getting information that is current and from a reliable source.”…..

Coastal Emu: glimpse of a disappearing species in 2023

 

A Coastal Emu in the paddock outside Wynyabbie House last week. Image: Facebook Cody Pepper.
Clarence Valley Independent, 12 April 2023

 

Still commonly sighted in the Richmond and Clarence Valleys up to the 1980s, Coastal Emu numbers had markedly declined by the turn of the century. 

Since commencement of NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service annual surveys in 2000, the number of Coastal Emus is estimated to have declined from approximately 140 individuals to just 40 of these unique endangered birds in 2017. 

Whilst gaining accurate estimates of small populations ranging over a large area can be difficult, opportunistic sightings between 2018 and 2019 suggest that there are around 26 adults and 20 juveniles left in the area (CVC 2020). The current best estimate is under 50.

What sighting there are in the Lower Clarence are possibly more common in Bundjalung National Park in Iluka and Yuraygir National Park south of Yamba. 

However sighting are now rare along the road between Maclean and Yamba. 

So this bird spending time in paddocks alongside the Palmers Channel section of Yamba Road is pleasing locals.

Tweed Shire Council and Pottsville residents have managed to keep more residential housing and/or a seniors living estate off local flood prone land

In the first half of 2019 during the last days of Northern Rivers innocence or ignorance of what large scale climate change impacts meant, local governments wrote paragraphs like this in their planning documents based on flood data in some cases already ten years out of date.

‘“low island” means an area that is above the FPL and surrounded on its entire perimeter during and 100 year ARI event, but is inundated by the PMF. When flood levels exceed the FPL, in events up to the PMF, low islands become totally inundated, posing significant risk to isolated residents without flood free access to high land or shelter. Local examples include filled residential estates in Banora Point, West Kingscliff, and Pottsville, and raised dwellings in Chinderah, South Murwillumbah and Rural Villages.…..

A3.2.3 Urban Areas

Levees at Murwillumbah and Tweed Heads South provide structural protection against flood inundation to varying degrees. In other areas, planning controls are used to contain future flood damage. In 2009, a levee was retrofitted along Cudgera Creek to protect the Seabreeze Estate at Pottsville. In the event of a flood exceeding the levee height, the protected areas will flood quickly with little warning time and very rapid rises in water levels.

Council's design flood is based on the 100 year ARI event; that is a flood with a 1 in 100 (or 1%) chance of occurring in any one year.’  [Tweed Development Control Plan SECTION A3 - Development of Flood Liable Land VERSION 1.5 (DRAFT)]

Behind mentions of levee banks and need for early evacuation in flood prone areas in such documents, found in the planning files across seven regional local governments, there still lurked the thought that new housing estates and residential complexes could go ahead because floods could simply be managed by levees, land fill and residential floor heights.

Although at state level there remains environment & planning legislation which hasn’t caught up with life as it is experienced in a changing climate, there are signs that at local government level the new realities associated with the many river systems and coastal floodplains in north east NSW are slowly beginning to sink in.

Even if it apparently hasn't even begun to sink in with Newland Developers and Altitude Lifestyle, given plans for Lot 1747, DP 1215252 Seabreeze Boulevard Pottsville anticipated 6.3 ha of landfill to a height of 3.1m AHD. 

A large-scale landfill height within a range Yamba residents living approx. 155km to the south of Pottsville can attest is very likely to cause flood and storm waters to find new destructive paths though long established residential streets.

Vacant land bounded on all four sides by Seabreeze Boulevard, Tom Merchant Drive, Cudgera Creek and Sawtell Circuit, Pottsville NSW.

Echo, 13 April 2023:

The 6.3ha of vacant land at 1 Seabreeze Boulevard, Pottsville which is earmarked in the Tweed Development Control Plan 2008 (DCP 2008) as a potential school site has once again been saved from being developed as housing.

The developers Newland Developers Pty Ltd have had two previous development applications refused for DAs for residential developments at the site in 2017 and 2020. The Land and Environments Court (L&EC) once again dismissed the deemed refusal on 31 March, this time for a seniors housing development.

The developers had taken the Tweed Shire Council (TSC) to the L&EC on appeal for their proposed 93 lots for seniors housing as part of a community title subdivision making this the third time TSC had to defend the site for a future school.

Flooding a key issue

A second matter heard by the LEC, to carry out water and sewer supply works on the property, was approved by the Court, subject to certain conditions.

In its ruling on the current Concept DA, the primary finding of the L&EC was that the Concept DA failed to adequately address provisions for emergency response in situations such as flooding.

Mayor of Tweed Shire Chris Cherry said this was a good outcome for the Pottsville community who have long lobbied for a high school in the coastal village.

‘We welcome the judgement in the LEC on this issue,’ Cr Cherry said…..

‘Ensuring flood safety for our Seniors living communities is paramount and the decision found that this Concept DA did not provide the certainty needed for safe occupation of the site by our most vulnerable of residents.

‘This is the third time Council has had to go to the LEC to defend this piece of land, promised for education purposes when the Seabreeze Estate was formed in 2000. Each time Council has won these cases.

‘Council appealed to the NSW Government to rezone the land to infrastructure zoning so these repeated attempts could be avoided and the promise to the community could be honoured but the State Government did not support it.

‘With the recent change in State Government, and the promised support of a Pottsville High School by the new government, it is fantastic that this determination has come in now and kept this land available.’