Almost two decades ago in 2009 the Australian Government's Dept. of Climate Change in a first pass assessment warned the nation:
"Over the last 6,000–7,000 years sea level around Australia has been relatively stable, which has generally allowed current landforms and ecosystems to persist without large scale modifications.
Since 1788 settlements have been built along our coast in expectation that sea level would remain broadly unchanged. Significant settlement of low-lying areas has occurred, and structures were designed and built to standards defined by a relatively narrow period of experience.
Those conditions are now changing. A new climate era driven by global warming will increase risks to settlements, industries, the delivery of services and natural ecosystems within Australia’s coastal zone."
At least a decade ago it was reported in the media that the Insurance Council of Australia considered that it would not be the high cost of repair to residential properties in the 7-10km wide coastal strip most at risk of inundation and/or land slippage which would make these homes uninsurable – it would be the fact that the land on which such housing was built had become worthless.
By 2011 Australian coastal local governments were acknowledging the issue of land valuation and future liability on residential lot owners.
"A number of respondents highlighted the potential risk to existing private homes and the possibility of future depopulation and disinvestment in exposed locations. Similarly, local planners expressed difficulties in evaluating decisions that may quarantine future development potential on private land.
“There’s a big social dilemma – how do you tell someone their land is worthless and they can’t develop it?” (local government participant, March 2011).
One climate change consultant described a bifurcation whereby site based assessments fail to consider issues of transport and services. This means that individual sites might be approved for development due to their elevation, but lack secure provisions for road access via existing or planned road reservations. It was suggested that servicing these sites may become a future liability for local government areas.
“The house might be safe but the road’s going to be underwater and it’s going to be unsafe for access. If local governments are going to accept development in the areas where this additional service cost to maintain access or service [will arise], they’ll have to have a strategy to suggest that they impose that additional cost on the residents who choose to live in these places, but that’s not yet been resolved” (private sector consultant, March 2011)."
[Syd Uni Faculty of Architecture, Design and Planning, Gurran, N et al in Report No. 4 for the National Sea Change Taskforce November 2011, "Planning for climate change adaptation in Coastal Australia: State of practice", pp 26-27]
Such warnings with regard to very real climate change risks to coastal urban areas have been repeated again and again in the years since.
In 2022 financial services and analytics firm CoreLogic announced that calculations based on 30 years of tidal & shoreline retreat data indicated $5.3 billion worth of properties were at very high risk within 800 metres of the shoreline, and another $19.5 billion were at high risk. With dramatic changes to vulnerable coastlines within the next 30 years.
By October 2023 the Australian Government National Emergency Management Agency and the Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience had put their names to a warning that coastal properties with est. value of $25 billion were at "substantial risk" due to coastal erosion and inundation.
In particular noting: As calls from homeowners for greater protection from coastal erosion increase, the effects of bad decisions (e.g. building seawalls) will become more critical. Local governments needs to address coastal erosion adaptation and the equity between politics, private rights, environmental protections and public amenities of the beachfront.
Further noting: Australian coastal communities will become increasingly vulnerable to rising sea levels and extreme weather events and many beachfront properties will become stranded assets due to loss of property values as well as insurance and banking sectors retracting from the coastal property market. The Reserve Bank of Australia modelled that the number of high-risk properties could grow by over 74,000 due to climate change (Bellrose, Norman & Royters 2021).
Despite these warnings state governments have stubbornly resisted meaningful changes to planning policy and legislation. While both state and local governments generally have further entrenched internal cultures highly resistant to curbing the ambitions of both small and large professional property developers and land speculators - particularly those in the approx.100km wide & 29,900km long mainland coastal zone (including Tasmania) with its est. 49 per cent of soft shore lines and associated coastal rivers, estuaries and flood plains.
Digital Earth Australia, Geoscience Australia-CSIRO mapping of incidence from 1988 onwards showing most pronounced coastal shoreline loss by m/year in gradients of pale pink to red.
When it comes to riverine or sea water inundation this latest warning is quite specific.
The Daily Telegraph, 15 June 2024:
The Going Under Report predicts the seaside holiday village, which was completely cut off during the floods in 2022, has a 56.63 per cent risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030.
The report analysed close to fifteen million addresses in fifteen thousand suburbs across Australia.
According to the report, by 2030 588,857 (or 21 one per cent) of Australian homes will ‘have exposure to some level of riverine flooding’ with NSW by far the most impacted.
An Insurance Council of Australia spokesperson responded to the report findings stating the current risk to 230,000 Australian properties is a five per cent risk “of catastrophic flooding each year”.
“More than half of these (123,475) are in New South Wales, with the bulk of the remainder in Queensland and Victoria,” said the spokesperson.
NSW's most uninsurable towns
In NSW, 206,622 individual homes were identified as being at high risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030. This compares with 382,235 homes in all other states put together.
While the Climate Council’s Nicki Hutley told The Daily Telegraph the report findings were a reflection of updated climate science, the University of NSW (UNSW)’s Climate Research Centre Professor Andrew Pitman disagrees.
“The science behind this report isn’t robust but that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks from climate change and an imperative to act according to climate science risk.” he said.
Grafton’s Clarence Valley Council Councillor Greg Clancy told The Daily Telegraph that options for towns like Grafton, built when the river was used for transport, include relocation....
While these are an option for river towns like Grafton with existing residences, Mr Clancy raised concerns about new developments in flood prone areas such as a controversial application for a $48 million 284 lot subdivision at Mile Street in Yamba.
The Going Under Report predicts the seaside holiday village, which was completely cut off during the floods in 2022, has a 56.63 per cent risk of becoming uninsurable by 2030.
This concerns Mr Clancy who personally opposed the “flood plain development” application which is currently being determined by the Northern Regional Planning Panel, which assesses and determines regionally significant development applications.
“Basically, the developers would be creating islands, so the new houses are going to be on fill but will get cut off,” he said.
A spokesperson from the Insurance Council of Australia said that “in December 2022, National Cabinet tasked planning ministers to develop a national standard for considering disaster and climate risk and declaration that “the days of developing on flood plains need to end”.
“The ICA strongly supports the decision and has long been calling for governments to commit to stopping development in areas of high flood risk and commence work on planning reform with appropriate risk mitigation on flood plains,” the spokesperson said....
Coastal towns and villages on floodplains that empty into oceans are well aware of the triple threat climate change brings into their homes:
the high volume concentrated rain dumps which create flash flooding, inundate low lying points within town/village boundaries and overwhelm the stormwater system;
record breaking river flooding which stretches almost to breaking point both the community & local emergency services capacity to respond; and
the dangers of a twin event where a strong sea storm surge meets a river flood front, forcing more water into the river or estuary at the same time the flood front unable to travel unimpeded out to sea spreads across coastal land increasing flood height and duration there.
Yesterday Northern NSW communities gave evidence at NSW Legislative Council's Portfolio Committee No. 7 – Planning and Environment Inquiry into the Planning system and the impacts of climate change on the environment and communities.
I listened via the live feed to the morning of that hearing day, as representatives of their communities from South West Rocks, Coffs Harbour, Yamba, Maclean and Evans Head spoke with authority and insight about the very real climate change-induced risks they already face, the increased dangers predicted to occur as the climate crisis deepens and, drew attention to the lack of political will within state & local government, absence of detailed strategic planning required to avoid or at least significantly mitigate against destructive changes to flood & stormwater behaviour frequently caused by inappropriate large-scale development and, need to cease further urban development on floodplains and in the immediate vicinity of vulnerable coastlines.
When the 17 June hearing transcript is posted on the NSW Parliament website, a summary containing the principal arguments and observations will be posted on North Coast Voices.
