Looking at the gestation window for a new cyclone?

Tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclones are low pressure systems that form over warm tropical waters and have well defined wind circulations of at least gale force strength (sustained winds of 63 km/h or greater with gusts in excess of 90 km/h).
Technically they are defined as a non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters having organised convection and a maximum mean wind speed of 34 knots or greater extending more than half-way around near the centre and persisting for at least six hours....
The severity of a tropical cyclone is described in terms of categories ranging from 1 to 5 related to the zone of maximum winds.....

La Niña event

Australia continues to feel the effects of one of the strongest La Niña's on record. During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period, while summer daytime temperatures are often below average, particuarly in areas experiencing excess rainfall.....
Climate indicators of ENSO continue to indicate a strong, mature La Niña, although there are clear signs the event has passed its peak. Pacific Ocean temperatures have increased, especially below the surface, while atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud patterns have eased from their peaks reached about a month ago......
These observations are consistent with long-range forecast models surveyed by the Bureau which show the Pacific gradually warming during the southern autumn. Given that March to June is the ENSO transition period, there is a spread among the model predictions for the middle of 2011. The most likely outcome is for a return to neutral conditions, but there is a chance of La Niña persisting for the rest of the year.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology sea surface temperature mapping on February 3 2011

Exceeding mean temperature probability February-April 2011

TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN EAST COAST FROM NOVEMBER TO APRIL 1858 TO 2000

La Niña - Detailed Australian Analysis

What Keneally's promise to help with electricity charges means to the average worker, pensioner or independent retiree on the NSW North Coast

This is what the NSW Government Industry and Investment website had to say about the Energy Rebate on 5 February 2011:

The Energy Rebate was increased from $130 a year to $145 per year on 1 July 2010. The Rebate will be further increased to $161 from 1 July 2011. These increases reflect the average rise in regulated electricity prices. Also from 1 July 2010, eligibility for the Energy Rebate was expanded to include all customers who hold Health Care Cards.

Am I eligible for the Energy Rebate?

The Energy Rebate is now available to all electricity account holders who hold either a:

· Pensioner Concession Card issued by either Centrelink or the Department of Veterans' Affairs (DVA)

· Gold Card issued by the Department of Veterans' Affairs marked with either:
-War Widow or War Widower Pension
-Totally and Permanently Incapacitated (TPI)
-Disability Pension

· Health care card issued by Centrelink as a result of receiving one of a number of income support payments from the Commonwealth.

If you hold an eligible card and have not yet registered for the Energy Rebate you should contact your retailer.

Any customer receiving the Energy Rebate prior to 1 July 2010 will continue to receive the Rebate and will automatically receive the increased amount, if they continue to hold a valid and eligible card.

How do I obtain the rebate?

If you think you are eligible for the rebate or would like to ask some more questions, contact your electricity supplier or your local electricity distributor. Contact phone numbers can be found on your electricity bill.

This is what the Keneally Government announced on 6 February 2011 as part of an opening salvo in its re-election campaign:

The Energy Rebate will be increased from $161 to $250 from July 1, while eligibility for the rebate will be extended to households with a combined income of under $150,000.

What this means is that if you have a Health Care Card or equivalent and your quarterly electricity charges came to a frugal $200 in any energy bill received after 1 July 2011, then the new Energy Rebate would reduce your actual payment (with GST added) to around $153 instead of the $181 or so you would pay now.

Families without the Heath Care Card but with a combined income of under $150,000 will be eligible for the Energy Rebate on 1 July 2012.

The worrying issue is the NSW Labor statement that this new scale will mean that families save $1000 in electricity bills over the life of the plan - which indicates that the annual $250 rebate may only be guaranteed for the next four financial years.

Keneally's launch of Fairness for Families can be found here.

"mendacious, ugly, disgraceful and cringeworthy" - and that's just his good points!

I must confess myself astounded that Tony Abbott could be so foolish as to shake people down for a donation to his private cause at the same time as he is attempting to further that cause by threatening to deny funding to repair the damage from the Queensland floods. That he should do so while the most ferocious cyclone in recorded history bore down on the coastline of the same state, well, it was just … words fail me. We waited for the cataclysm to rake over the north of state like the blast front from a gigantic, slow moving nuclear bomb. An eerie, suspended interlude. Until Abbott punctured the moment with his ham-fisted partisan foolishness. [John Birmingham, National Times,3 February 2011]

LaurieOakes

Lib fundraising on back of Qld flood disaster as a devastating cyclone bears down will not earn Tony Abbott any credit. Deeply embarrassing. 11:02 PM Feb 1st via web

Mr Abbott's Odious Opportunism ……Tony's attempt to distance himself from the crass e-mail appeal doesn't impress either. [Sardonic Detachment Therapy,3 February 2011]

And this is what he has to say.
Observe the precision of his judgement, and the exquisite subtlety of his timing. [Still Life With Cat,2 February 2011]

No wonder Tony Abbott's percentages continue to look like this:

Prime Minister Julia Gillard is still preferred as Prime Minister (49%, up 3% since December 8-12, 2010) over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (36%, down 3%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three days (February 1-3, 2011).
More electors approve of the way Julia Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister (46%, down 3% since December 8-12, 2010) than approve of the way Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is handling his job (39%, down 11%).

Cartoon found at Nicholson Cartoons

The air is clear in relation to Lionel Murphy and Malawi's take on flatulence

Today's Sun Herald reveals once more that attempts to sully the good name of Lionel Murphy were baseless.

Peter FitzSimons has a piece that demonstrates quite clearly Murphy cannot be associated in any way, shape or form with a bill in Malawi that would outlaw breaking wind in public.

Read more about flatulence in Malawi in a BBC report here.

Here's FitzSimon's piece:

Source: Sun Herald, 6/2/11

Image credits: Sun Herald, 6/2/11 and http://www.rhinocarhire.com/Car-Hire-News/February-2011/Farting-Ban-for-Malawi-6119.aspx

North Coast Voices - the feral edition

Independent MP for New England Tony Windsor calls Clarence Valley residents 'feral' and Windsor labels Valley ‘feral' ran headlines in both the mainstream media and blogosphere.

This was the swift response.....................

The Daily Examiner, 4 February 2011

Federal Labor MP for Page Janelle Saffin:“Well, too right we go feral because my view is they should just stop talking about an idea that's so stupid anyway; and it's not going to go anywhere. But we do go feral because everybody agrees that we cannot divert or dam the Clarence River.

NSW Nationals MP for Clarence Steve Cansdell: ..as far as damning and diverting the Clarence, I am happy to be classed as a 'feral'. I will always be against any such proposal.

Clarence Valley Mayor Richie Williamson: We do, and we will, go absolutely feral because a majority is clearly against the diversion or the damming of the Clarence River. We as a community are definitely against any damming of the Clarence River.

The Daily Examiner,4 February 2011
Click on image to enlarge

Boy the Wonder Cat: Tony Windsor doesn't know the meaning of 'feral' yet. If he keeps this dam nonsense up, one fine morning he will wake to find I've peed on his verandah posts, crapped on the front door mat, scared his hens eggless and bonked his dog so thoroughly that it won't come out from under the house for the next ten years.

True words tweeted in jest?

FakeeEtiquette Fake e-Etiquette

It is polite to continue acting as though internet arguments have winners or conclusions.

Chicken boots and the spectacles thief

Most of the hens on the farm are of an Indian game type and are mainly bred as table birds. They are not the best egg layers.

There are large sections of the year where they don't produce eggs and then at the start of spring and summer the eggs are in abundance.

So I decided that I would start on a breeding program that would yield chooks that would lay eggs over most of the year, yet still retain most of the qualities that make excellent eating birds.

I obtained a couple of roosters that were mainly Isa Brown types, and one pure breed Isa Brown. The two older roosters were ready to breed this season so I set two hens, this yielded 16 chickens.

The chickens are the quietest birds I have ever seen, walking around the yard has been reduced to a shuffle since the chicks are always under foot.

I have even had to retrieve them out of gumboots, which would not be much of a problem except that I was wearing these boots at the time.

During this gumboot invasion the last thing I was thinking about was the fact that I had mistakenly left my reading glasses in my shirt pocket. As I bent down to get the chicken out of the gumboot the glasses fell out and landed on one of the chickens in the maul happening around my feet. They scattered to the wind taking the glasses with them.

I was stuck, I still had a chook in my gumboot.

There I was in the middle of a muddy yard, balancing on one slipping gumboot gently trying to remove the other and retrieve the protesting chicken. I was very lucky to get the chicken out of the boot without falling in the mud.

Then the search for my glasses began along with the rain. The chickens(being helpful little mites) all followed me for the entire search. Emitting calls that sounded something like - hot, hotter, no colder, cool.

After about half an hour I found the glasses and they were intact if a bit muddy.

The chickens looked quite pleased with themselves; after all they do try their best.

In America 2011 zealous wingnuts are on the march and no woman is safe

 

In America in 2011 there were thirteen females amongst the around sixty members of the US Congress who sponsored a bill called the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act  which seeks to deny Medicare-funded abortion to girls and women who were raped without some form of physical restraint or violence.

The House of a Thousand Fools

Can anyone really believe this nonsense? Over 1,000 Australians Sign Petition Opposing Flood Levy - Stop The Levy

Over 1,000 Australians have signed an online petition imploring the Federal Government to not impose an unfair and destructive new tax on the vulnerable Australian economy. The website, http://www.stopthelevy.com/, is a project of Menzies House, an independent, grassroots online community for center-right activists, writers, and thinkers. Menzies House is unaffiliated with any political party.

All this hysteria over a twelve-month levy with a scale like this? For crying out loud you would have to have a taxable income of over $80,000 a year before it was costing you more than a skinny latte once a week and over $130,000 a year before it cost the price of a quick working day lunch for one at the local caff.

Anony-mice

Yamba

* GuestSpeak is a feature of North Coast Voices allowing Northern Rivers residents to make satirical or serious comment on issues that concern them. Posts of 250-300 words or less can be submitted to ncvguestspeak AT gmail.com.au for consideration.

Backyard pool safety: At long last the penny has dropped at Clarence Valley Council

Having lived in the Clarence Valley for over 35 years and reckon I'm almost a local (but true-blue locals keep moving the goal posts and are now saying you have to be here 40+ years to qualify although they said 10 years ago it was 30+ years) I'm thrilled to bits that Clarence Valley Council is at long last going to do something about back yard pool safety.

We installed a pool 28 years ago and we're still waiting for Council to come and give it its final inspection to say all is AOK with its fence, gate and other safety features.

In a media release titled Pools and fences failing to pass safety guidelines

Clarence Valley Council says it has commenced inspection of swimming pools and fences to ensure compliance under the Swimming Pools Act and Australian Standards.

Mayor Richie Williamson said, “In the first round of inspections, Council officers have been disappointed at the extremely large failure rate, with 9 out of 11 swimming pools and fences failing to pass safety guidelines. This is of great concern, especially as statistics show half of the children under the age of five that drown, do so in private swimming pools or spas.” (www.safewaters.nsw.gov.au)

The majority of failures have involved climbing points too close to the fence and unsatisfactory latching mechanisms.

Council staff will be continuing random inspections throughout the Valley, and will be taking strict action, including on the spot fines if major defects are discovered or pools are unfenced.

It is recommended that owners of pools check their fences and gates to ensure they are working correctly.

A pool safety checklist is available from Council’s offices in Grafton and Maclean, or can be downloaded from the Dept of Local Government website www.dlg.nsw.gov.au – backyard swimming pools.