Today NSW SES launches the state's official Spring-Summer storm season awareness

 

The NSW State Emergency Service is reminding state residents and visitors that while storms can happen at any time of the year, peak season is between October 2023 and March 2024, when NSW sees increased chances of strong winds and heavy rain, which risks floods and flash floods, and that even in periods forecasting low rainfall these storms can remain destructive. 

As anyone who has seen bushfire initiated by ‘dry’ lightning strike or driven forward by strong winds can attest.

We all need to be aware and prepared for storms.

Go to https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/disaster-tabs-header/storm/ for further preparedness advice

SES Media, COMMUNITY URGED TO BE PREPARED AHEAD OF STORM SEASON

05/09/2023 10:46 AM

The NSW State Emergency Service (NSW SES) is urging residents to be prepared and have a plan in place, ahead of the 2023-24 storm season.

While this year’s weather forecast is set to bring dry and hot conditions, the threat of increased storm activity remains.

Minister for Emergency Services Jihad Dib said community preparation is key.

“While this year’s warmer months are expected to be vastly different to what we’ve experienced in recent years, we are still moving in to peak storm season across the state,” Minister Dib said.

“It is important to know the storm risk, have a plan in place, get your home ready, be aware of what you will do if disaster strikes, and look out for one another.

“I would like to thank the NSW SES in advance for everything they will do for the communities across NSW during the upcoming storm season.”

NSW SES Commissioner Carlene York APM said now is not the time for communities to be complacent.

“Throughout storm season severe weather, such as flooding due to isolated heavy rainfall, strong wind events and damaging hail, can all have significant impacts on communities,” Commissioner York said.

“Last storm season our volunteers responded to more than 14,000 storm-related jobs throughout NSW. We are urging the community to get prepared by undertaking some simple activities around the house.

“Clean your gutters, downpipes and drains, secure and put away any loose items around your backyard and balcony, and trim trees and branches that could fall onto your home.”

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Hugh McDowell said the long-range forecast shows that NSW can expect much less rainfall than last year and lower than median rainfall through Spring.

"There is also a very high chance of daytime maximum and overnight minimum temperatures being higher than usual," Mr McDowell said.

"Spring rainfall is likely to be suppressed across NSW by a developing El Nino and Positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

"Whilst these two climate drivers can reduce overall rainfall their influence on severe storms is less pronounced. We can expect the number of severe storms to be close to historical averages this year."

Spring is the peak time for severe thunderstorms along Australia's east coast. East Coast Lows can also bring storms in early spring, increasing the risk of hail, damaging winds and flash flooding.

Mr McDowell said the overall flood risk has been assessed as close to average.

"Whilst the Spring outlook is drier and warming, severe storms can bring significant rainfall in short periods, so flood risks remain for some catchments.”

Commissioner York said the NSW SES is ready and able to respond to storm activity.

“The NSW SES and Bureau of Meteorology recently signed a five-year partnership agreement that results in dedicated meteorology and hydrology services embedded within the NSW SES,” Commissioner York said.

“These roles provide direct access to decision support for all severe weather warnings from the Bureau as well as the ability to run and analyse flood modelling on any catchment at any time.

“This partnership with the Bureau puts NSW SES in a strong position to plan, prepare and respond to this year's severe weather season and spring flood risks."

Between October 2022 and March 2023, the NSW SES responded to more than 14,000 storm-related incidents. These incidents were not related to the widespread campaign flooding that took place across the state. Of these incidents, 544 occurred in the Port Macquarie-Hastings area, 544 in Ku-ring-gai, 469 in Hornsby, 377 in Sutherland, 373 in Dubbo and 650 in the Central Coast (Gosford and Wyong).

For more information on how to get ready ahead of this year’s storm season, visit www.ses.nsw.gov.au/getready

Everyone is hoping that the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to restrain the urge to raise interest rates today

IMAGE: Depositphotos

By late August 2023 mainstream media was reporting that in the 2022-23 financial year supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths recorded profits in excess of $1 billion representing around a 5% increase on the previous year - withy Woolworth’s recording a nearly 20% rise in grocery sector earnings while Coles recorded a 2.9% rise.

These grocery earnings being an almost direct cash transfer from dwindling household piggy banks to supermarket chain bank accounts.

In August the major banks were also reporting fat financial year profits, with the Commonwealth Bank coming in with a personal record breaking best of $10.2 billion in 2022-23.

None of the big banks being slow in coming forward to pass on increasing Reserve Bank of Australia cash rates onto customers, including those with home mortgages.

According to the ABS latest monthly consumer price index indicator, rent prices increased 7.6% in the twelve months to July 2023, up from 7.3% in June, reflecting strong demand for rental properties and tight rental markets.

Electricity prices rose 15.7% in the twelve months to July 2023, reflecting annual price reviews in July.

Annual prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 5.6%, down from the rise of 7.0% in June, with dairy and related products rising12.7% and bread & cereal products rising 9.9% even if fruit & vegetables fell by -2.9%.

The actual pain of cost of living pressures are of course rarely mentioned by the Reserve Bank of Australia or the statisticians.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), media release, 4 September 2023:

Household spending was 0.7 per cent lower when compared to July last year, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics, said households have curbed their spending over the past 12 months amid higher interest rates and inflation.

“This is the first time since February 2021 that the spending indicator has fallen.

“Spending on discretionary goods and services was down for the fourth straight month. It fell 3.3 per cent over the year, as households adapt to cost of living pressures.

“Non-discretionary spending rose 1.7 per cent, which is the lowest growth rate since early 2021.”

The Sydney Morning Herald, 4 September 2023:

The largest fall in spending on goods including clothing, footwear and home furnishings since the start of the Delta wave of the pandemic has bolstered the case for the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates steady for a third consecutive month.

Outgoing RBA governor Philip Lowe will on Tuesday helm his last meeting of the board, which is widely expected by economists to keep the official cash rate at 4.1 per cent as the economy continues to show signs of slowing and inflation pressures ease.

Because someone has to say it: By Dec 2023 it's likely converging & merging weather and climatic conditions will see not only cost of fruit, vege, eggs, dairy products, meat & basic foodstuffs rising - it will see availability & supply become issue to varying degrees across Oz.

— no_filter_Yamba (@no_filter_Yamba) September 1, 2023

 

In the space of three days state-owned Forestry NSW has apparently thumbed its nose at the Land & Environment Court and exposed itself to the international community as an environmental vandal

 

Echo, 1 September 2023:

Aunty Alison and Aunty Lauren on Gumbaynggirr Country at Newry State Forest. Photo supplied

Gumbaynggirr Elder Uncle Micklo and the oldest and most senior Gumbaynggirr Elder living on Gumbaynggirr Country Uncle Bud Marshall brought a successful application to the Land and Environment Court (L&EC) that halted logging at the Newry State Forest on 22 August. They were supported by Gumbaynggirr elders Aunty Alison and Aunty Lauren.

The Judge accepted an undertaking from Forestry to stop all logging in the forest to allow for a site inspection by Gumbaynggirr Elders of sacred and significant sites in the forest that the NSW Forestry had been logging. It had been arranged for the elders to go for the inspection on Friday, 1 September, however, at the last minute they were contacted by NSW Forestry to cancel the site inspection.

The Judge also accepted an undertaking that the stop on logging should extend to the substantial hearing set down for November 14, 16 and 17 in the L&EC.

‘Last night (31 August) Forestry said they were going to call off the site inspection, then they said they wanted to delay for another two weeks. They are due back in court on Tuesday (5 September) and the site inspection is supposed to have taken place,’ said Al Oshlack, from the Indigenous Justice Advocacy Network who helped organise the stop work order. [my yellow highlighting]

‘We had a driver organised and they were going to go out to a number of sites in Newry Forest today (Friday, 1 September). Everyone is really upset because they have been locked out for a long time by Forestry with fences and cameras etc in place.’

Mr Oshlack told The Echo that Forestry appears to use a person named Mr Potter to sign off on their cultural heritage requirements. However, Mr Oshlack said they have been unable to find any Gumbaynggirr people who either know Mr Potter or who have been consulted about sacred and cultural sites in the area by Forestry NSW.

‘We have been asking around to find out if anyone knows who Mr Potter is but we haven’t been able to find anyone who knows this person so far,’ Mr Oshlack said.

‘I spoke to Gumbaynggirr people who have been looking for him and they said “We went to five different Gumbaynggirr families and no one has heard of him.”….

The Sydney Morning Herald, 2 September 2023:

Professor Helge Bruelheide, professor of botany at the University of Helle in Germany, was stunned by what he has seen exploring the forests in and around the promised Great Koala National Park on the state’s North Coast this week.

“It is spectacular. All the variants of this Gondwana rainforest – cool and warm, temperate rainforest and also the subtropical rainforest – is something that is so unique globally that you wouldn’t find it in this particular combination elsewhere,” said Breulheide, one of the leading scientists in his field, who visited with 30 of his colleagues from around the world as they prepared for a conference on forest preservation to be held in Coffs Harbour next week.

Professor Helge Bruelheide at Border Ranges National Park, north of the proposed Great Koala National Park.

“It’s incredible walking through the forest and seeing a different tree every 5 meters. It is unique in the world. And it is also ancient, what we have seen remnants of a vegetation that is long gone on Earth. Australia is a bit of an ark conserving this fantastic biodiversity.

“I mean, I knew that from the books but touching it and seeing these wonderful trees is something different. We were completely shocked that this was being logged for paper pulp and timber. Particularly this type of forest, we really couldn’t understand that.” [my yellow highlighting]

It was not just the fact of the logging that stunned, but Bruelheide, but the nature of it. Rather than so-called single-stem logging that is common in places like Germany, where single trees are targeted and removed, loggers here take out whole sections, leaving behind a few trees in compartments (a section of forest identified for logging) that have been identified as critical feed or habitat trees for some endangered species.

“I feel like I was time travelling back to the 60s when this was all over the place,” says Breulheide of what he saw inside a patch of the Moonpar State Forest identified on the Forestry Corporation website as Section 345…..

Overview of a Moonpar State Forest Section 345 in May 2023

Moonpar State Forest Section 345
IMAGE: via @CloudsCreek, 7 May 2023

Closer view of segment of Moonpar State Forest Section 345, May 2023, showing felled native trees. SNAPSHOT: Google Earth Pro

Click on images to enlarge

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2023: If this is to be Australia's Spring in 2023, what will Summer look like?

The Guardian, 1 September 2023:

On Thursday, the bureau said Australia’s spring would likely see hotter than average temperatures and lower than average rainfall – a combination that would increase the risk of bushfires.

Dr Masoud Edraki, a senior hydrologist at the bureau, said the record-high sea surface temperatures seen globally would continue to affect Australia’s weather.

“We know that a warmer climate does increase the risk of extreme weather including heatwaves and drought,” he said.

“We are already seeing longer fire seasons, and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days over most of Australia. We don’t know yet how global warming, and particularly the increased warmth in the oceans, is affecting our typical climate drivers.

“Our climate forecast model is consistent with the international climate forecasts that show Australia is trending dry and warm for the coming season, particularly in the south-west and much of south-eastern Australia.”

 

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), website excerpts retrieved 2 September 2023:

Global warming

Global warming continues to influence Australian and global climates. Global sea surface temperatures were highest on record for their respective months during April to July 2023, with July also being the equal-highest month on record (according to the ERA5 reanalysis). July 2023 was also the hottest month globally in terms of 2 metre air temperature.

Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia. Southern Australia has seen a reduction, by 10 to 20%, in cool season (April to October) rainfall in recent decades. This is due to a combination of natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large-scale circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Warmer than median days and nights for most of Australia during spring

Issued: 31 August 2023

• For September, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across the southern two-thirds of Australia. Below median maximum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) for the Queensland Gulf Country, and central and eastern NT.

• For September to November, above median maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia.

• For September to November, most of Australia is at least 2.5 times as likely to experience unusually high maximum temperatures (unusually high maximum temperatures equates to the warmest 20% of September to November periods from 1981 to 2018), with chances increasing to more than four times as likely for most of western and central WA and parts of the southeast.

• For September, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for Tasmania, Victoria, NSW on and east of the Great Dividing Range, the Southeast Coast of Queensland, and most of WA. Below median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely across most of the NT, the Kimberley and Northern Interior regions of WA, central and western Queensland, the far west of NSW and the North East Pastoral and Flinders districts of SA.

• For September to November, minimum temperatures are likely (60 to 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of Australia excluding areas of north-east NT, northern Queensland, and south-east SA. Chances increase to very likely (greater than 80% chance) for Western Australia and parts of eastern Australia.

• For September to November, western and central areas of WA and areas on and east of the Great Dividing Range in NSW and Victoria are at least 3 times as likely to experience unusually high minimum temperatures (unusually high minimum temperatures equates to the warmest 20% of September to November periods from 1981 to 2018), with chances increasing to more than four times as likely for parts of central WA.

• Past accuracy of the September to November chance of above median maximum and minimum temperature long-range forecasts has been high to very high across all of Australia.

BOM: Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for September to November

With regard to rainfall:

For September to November, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.

Later than usual rainfall onset likely for most of northern Australia

A later than usual northern rainfall onset for the 2023–24 season is likely for most of northern Australia.

Most of northern Australia excluding interior parts of Western Australia has a 60 to 70% chance of a later than usual rainfall onset. This increases to a greater than 70% chance for northern and eastern parts of the NT and Queensland, as well as along the Gascoyne Coast in WA.

The northern rainfall onset outlook gives an indication of whether the first significant rains after 1 September are likely to be earlier or later than their median date (based on historical observations, 1981–2018). View median onset dates here.

This is the final Northern Rainfall Outlook for the 2023 to 2024 season.

NOTE: The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including likely El Niño development and positive Indian Ocean Dipole development, and record warm oceans globally.

El Niño Alert continues, positive IOD likely for spring

The Bureau's El Niño Alert continues, with El Niño development likely during spring. When El Niño Alert criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are exceeding El Niño thresholds and have continued to warm slightly over the last fortnight. Climate models indicate further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2024.

Drought: Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

4 August 2023

• July rainfall for Australia overall was 1% above the 1961–1990 average.

• Rainfall for July was below average for southern two thirds of Western Australia, most of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern Tasmania and above average for much of the northern half of Australia.

• For the period commencing May 2023, large areas of severe rainfall deficiency (totals in the lowest 5% of historic observations since 1900) have emerged across much of the south-west half of Western Australia, and much of the east coast of New South Wales.

• For the period commencing December 2022, areas experiencing serious deficiencies (totals in the lowest 10% of observations since 1900) include parts of southern Queensland, parts of the north-eastern quarter of New South Wales and areas within the south-west of Western Australia.

• Soil moisture was below average (in the lowest 30% of all observations since 1900), across a wide band of south-west Western Australia into western South Australia, and parts of eastern Australia, particularly Wide Bay and Burnett in Queensland and along coastal New South Wales into far east Victoria.

• Low stream flows were observed mostly at sites in the west of Western Australia, areas of eastern coastal New South Wales and south-east Queensland, and scattered sites in the north of the Murray–Darling Basin.

• Storage levels remain low in some parts of south and central Queensland, eastern and southern parts of New South Wales, central Tasmania, and urban areas of Perth.

• For August to October, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for much of Australia.

AFAC: National Council for Fire and Emergency Services, excerpt retrieved from website 2 September 2023:

Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: Spring 2023

23 August 2023

Australia's climate influences have shifted significantly since last spring, with above average temperatures and below average rainfall expected for almost the entire country for the coming season. Many regions have also seen increased fuel growth due to above average rainfall throughout recent La Niña years, which is contributing to increased risk of bushfire across locations in Australia during the spring 2023.

Increased risk of fire is expected for regions in Queensland, NSW, Victoria, SA and NT. Communities in these regions are urged to prepare for bushfire and monitor local conditions.

Australia's climate influences have shifted significantly since last spring. Following above average rainfall experienced during consecutive La Niña years, the Bureau of Meteorology predicts a switch to higher chances of above average temperatures and below average rainfall for almost the entire country.

Recent rainfall means many regions have also seen increased fuel growth, which is contributing to increased risk of bushfire for many regions of Australia during the spring season.

NOTE: Click on images to enlarge

Cartoons of the Week

John Shakespeare

Cathy Wilcox

Tweet of the Week

 

From Paul Kelly (FB) pic.twitter.com/Kvobo6kPUZ

— noeline purdy (@ozwildflower) August 29, 2023

 

As the countdown to the national referendum begins - along the Clarence River people are discussing Yes23

On referendum day, Saturday 14 October 2023, voters will be asked to vote 'yes' or 'no' on a single question. The question on the ballot paper will be:

“A Proposed Law: to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice.

Do you approve this proposed alteration?”

Along the Clarence River people are listening and deciding......

GRAFTON

YAMBA

“Mid-talk with Yaegl Elders in Maclean NSW, the referendum date was announced. An exciting moment to share with this community.” Thomas Mayo

MACLEAN

IMAGES: X aka Twitter