Tweet of the Week

 

Faaark yes pic.twitter.com/SFZlg4d4iW

— just me 🏳️‍🌈🌈 AJ (@WakeWtfu) October 1, 2023

 

Is social media platform "X" now a financial blackhole threatening to consumer its investors & 'inconvenience' its bankers?

 

Reuters, 4 October 2023:

NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - X is still worth something, but not for the people running it. Boss Linda Yaccarino is set to present her plans for the social network formerly known as Twitter to bankers holding nearly $13 billion of its debt, the Financial Times reported. Looming over talks is the likelihood that X’s value is substantially less than even that figure.

This week’s meeting with seven banks led by Morgan Stanley (MS.N) that supported Elon Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of the platform caps off a tumultuous first four months for Yaccarino, a former advertising executive at Comcast-owned (CMCSA.O) NBCUniversal. That includes a contentious interview last week in which she seemed caught off-guard by Musk’s announced ambition to charge X users a monthly fee to combat bots.

Despite Musk’s big pronouncements about pushing into subscriptions, X has historically relied on advertising, which contributed over 90% of revenue when it was a public company. But that business is spiraling, and the platform’s shifting policies could threaten more branding deals. In July, Musk posted that cash flow was negative because of a 50% drop in advertising sales.

The apparent strategic disconnect between the company’s ad-focused chief executive and its subscription-hungry owner comes as valuations are falling. TikTok parent ByteDance was recently valued at $224 billion, down by about a quarter from a year ago, the Information reported. Disappearing messaging app Snap’s (SNAP.N) market value has slumped by more than 10% over the past year.

Put it all together, and X isn’t just worth less than Musk paid for it, but likely less than its debt. Assume that the company’s revenue last year was $4.7 billion, based on results before it was taken private. If advertising has dropped by half, then this year’s sales should be a bit over $2.5 billion. Put that on the same enterprise-value-to-sales multiple as Snap, which is down to a mere 3 times, and X is worth around $8 billion.

The company is so far covering its hefty interest payments of $300 million per quarter, and Yaccarino sees profitable days ahead. But between Musk’s impromptu product shifts and the need to woo back advertisers, her task is daunting. If things deteriorate further, the company’s bankers - already nursing billions in on-paper losses - face the prospect of taking back the keys to a diminished platform that is worth less than even their claim on it. Like a financial black hole, X threatens to consume most of whatever value it once had.

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

The seven banks which reportedly facilitated Musk’s US$13 billion loan arrangements so that he could purchase Twitter Inc/“Twitter” now known as X Corp/“X”:

Bank of America

Barclays

BNP Paribas - $6.5 billion term loan facility

Mizuho - $500 million revolving loan facility

Morgan Stanley - $3 billion secured bridge loans

MUFG - $3 billion unsecured bridge loans

Societe Generale. 

[Reuters, 7 October 2023]

BACKGROUND

USA Today, 4 October 2023, excerpt:

X, formerly known as Twitter, has lost most of the guardrails it once had. Massive employee cuts, in particular, to content moderation teams, more divisive content, the removal of state-affiliated media labels, and a blind allegiance to free speech by Elon Musk have made the platform much more susceptible to misinformation and disinformation. COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the 2024 election are all vulnerable topics…..

Dana Taylor:

Pivoting to the 2024 US presidential election, there are quite a few nefarious forces out there including both state and non-state actors who are chipping away at American's confidence in election integrity and would like nothing more than to see the US democracy fail. Elon Musk also recently announced he was cutting X'S global election integrity team in half. Is it looking worse than 2020? And if so, how?

Josh Meyer:

For the story that I wrote, I talked to a lot of experts in, I do think there was a tremendous amount of concern that this could be the worst one ever. Hopefully that won't be the case, but we have a lot of state run actors now. We've got China, Iran, and, of course, Russia looking to meddle in the election. You've got a lot of right-wing extremist groups doing it. Some of the security information specialists that I talked to said you even have kids in their parents' basement who could manipulate things…..

According to Fiber in 2021 there were 5.8 million Twitter users in Australia.

The saying ‘start as you mean to go on’ has acquired a darker meaning under the new Clarence Valley Council Mayor

Clarence Valley Council Ordinary Monthly Meeting 
26 September 2023
Mayor Peter Johnstone in the Chair

 

The first order of business at the Clarence Valley Council Ordinary Monthly Meeting of 26 September 2023 was the mid-term election of a mayor.

So that quite sensibly, if there was a change as to which councillor held the office, the new mayor would chair the remainder of the monthly meeting.

Thus twenty-one minutes into the meeting by a margin of one vote Cr. Peter Johnstone became the new mayor. This was followed by election of the Deputy Mayor, Cr. Jeff Smith.

After these votes the meeting immediately became interesting.

It seems unbeknownst to the general public that morning as Cr. Johnstone, Mayor Johnstone had sent a notice to the other eight councillors that he intended to make a notice of motion rejecting the tender for Regional Aquatic Facility (Grafton Pool Redevelopment).

So when he as Chair requested that Item ITEM 07.23.184 RFT22/41 be brought forward to be considered as the first item of business, he appeared to do so on the pretext that there were a number of residents & ratepayers in the visitors seats who were there to hear council’s decision concerning this tender. A tender which council officers had formerly recommended be accepted as set out in the 26 September Business Paper.

Cr. Day called the item and Mayor Johnstone requested Day to put forward “his motion” which called for rejection of the tender for the Grafton Pool Redevelopment.

The Day motion was as follows:

That Council as Crown Land Manager of Grafton Westward and General Douglas MacArthur Park Reserve

(R540035):

1. Decline to accept the tender offers for RFT22/41 Regional Aquatic Facility (Grafton Olympic Pool) as

the tenders received were higher than anticipated.

2. Revise the Aquatic Centre project to begin with:

a. replacement of the 50m pool (stage 2),

b. demolition of the existing dive pool and 50m pool and importing fill as required to make the

ground flat,

c. the completion of the other works for which grant funding has already been received,

d. and any other matters that will need to be completed to ensure the operation of the new 50m

pool.

3. Defer commencement of the remainder of the project until after the election of the next council.

4. Prepare a report for the October Ordinary Council Meeting setting out the expected timescale and

recommendations for the completion of the project as set out in item 2.

5. Receive a report at each subsequent Ordinary Council Meeting on the progress of the project until

completion.

In the middle of reading of the motion there was some interjection from the gallery at the point where further consideration of full redevelopment of the site was to be deferred until after the next local government election in September 2024, with no direction to seek another tender for work in the interim set out in Point 2. 

Understandable, given the gallery was peopled by around 40 residents/ratepayers who mostly either firmly supported the Regional Aquatic Facility, had made deputations and/or organised a community petition seeking a positive council decision concerning redevelopment of the community pool site. 

Johnstone barked out “Order” in a best parade ground voice, followed by a somewhat inaudible sentence. Some minutes later he made a second request that the audience “keep silent please”.

After reading of the motion was completed Cr. Novak appeared to notice that the wording of Cr. Day’s motion closely resembled the notice of motion sent out that morning by Johnson and sought confirmation of this fact. Johnson confirmed it was indeed “the same motion” he had sent out.

Cr. Toms then fairly efficiently dissected what was essentially the Mayor’s motion and Johnstone refused to answer a question put to him by this councillor.

Cr. Pickering also called the Mayor out as to the late timing of the motion, but it was Cr. Whaites who called a spade a spade when she asked Johnstone did he wait to introduce the motion at this time because he anticipated using the mayoral casting vote “to not do what our community wants – yes or no”.

Johnstone refused to answer, ending the exchange with Whaites on the words “when the mayor’s speaking you will not speak”. Audible laughter could be heard from the gallery at that point.

Cr. Toms continued to question Johnstone’s understanding of the role of mayor once Council in the Chamber had already made a lawful decision to proceed with the full redevelopment of the Grafton Pool site.

As the formal debate of the motion played out Johnstone reminded the gallery that he could order its members be removed. Given the mild nature and short duration of gallery interjections during this monthly meeting Johnstone’s attitude was somewhat puzzling.

Before it came time to vote on what by then every councillor was accepting as being Johnstone’s motion not Day’s, the motion was called “a farce, a joke, and it’s making a mockery of the entire process” by one councillor and “it’s slow-minded and it’s short-sighted” by another councillor.

At times the ongoing debate became rather tense but remained essentially civil, nevertheless Johnstone accused Cr. Novak of something like an “act of disorder”. Again quiet laughter could be heard from the gallery.

A meeting recess was called which went on for about 5 minutes. After which the Mayor effectively gagged further debate, with the exception of himself. He spoke to his own slyly delivered motion.

In the end Mayor Johnstone’s motion was voted down five votes to three – only Johnstone, Day And Clancy supporting that motion to reject the tender.

Cr. Pickering having earlier foreshadowed the original council officers motion this was then put as follows:

COUNCIL RESOLUTION - 07.23.184

Pickering/Novak

OFFICER RECOMMENDATION

That Council, as Crown Land Manager of Grafton Westward and General Douglas MacArthur Park

Reserve (R540035):

1. accept the tender from Hines Construction Pty Ltd for RFT22/41 Regional Aquatic Facility (Grafton Pool Redevelopment) at a cost of $29,141,586 (GST Inclusive) to be funded in accordance with the funding strategy – Attachment B.

2. accept the schedule of rates submitted from Hines Construction Pty Ltd for the earthworks, total

cost to be calculated based on actual quantities as determined by a geotechnical engineer during the project works.

3. delegate authority to the General Manager to approve appropriately deemed variations to the Contract and those variations be reported to Council within the Quarterly Budget Review Statement (QBRS) once the Contract is finalised.

Voting recorded that motion carried as follows:

For - Johnstone, Novak, Pickering, Smith, Tiley, Toms, Whaites

Against - Clancy, Day.

One can be forgiven for suspecting that Clarence Valley Council may have chosen the wrong person to lead it for the next 12 months.

The 2023-24 Summer Fire Season arrived early and is now causing concern

 

By late yesterday afternoon the NSW Rural Fire Service had 115 incidents on its online interactive fire map.

All were bushfires or grassfires, with two listed as Emergency Warning - Out Of Control (Bega Valley & Cessnock).

Bushfires at Coolagolite on the NSW South Coast. CREDIT:JAMES BRICKWOOD. The Sydney Morning Herald, 3 October 2023

In the Northern Rivers region there were 7 fires in the Clarence Valley LGA, one in Richmond Valley LGA, one in Kyogle LGA and one in Tweed LGA.

Having burnt since Friday 29 September, the Richmond Valley bushfire at Northern Boundary Trail, Evans Head, had entered Bundjalung National Park and, by yesterday afternoon covered est. 1,235ha. 

Burning near to the unexploded bomb area of the RAAF air weapons range, it also came too close for comfort to houses in the small coastal village of Evans Head.

Flames lit up the night sky over the small coastal town of Evans Head on the NSW north coast.(Supplied: Allyson Cuskelly). ABC News, 3 October 2023

At 6pm, there are 86 fires burning, with 29 not yet contained. There are currently over 1300 firefighters and incident management specialists working to contain these fires. Extreme and high fire danger has been forecast tomorrow, with 3 TOBANs declared. https://t.co/SwFG8PzKTA pic.twitter.com/d6P3CcVSPT

— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) October 3, 2023

Fire Danger Ratings and Total Fire Bans in NSW can be checked at:

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fdr-and-tobans

In the early hours of Wednesday 4 October the Coolgolite fire ground in the Bega Valley had grown to 4,529ha and fire had broken out on Goodwood Island in the lower reaches of the Clarence River in northern NSW. However the number of active bush or grass fires across the state had fallen to 85 by 1:20am.

$15m Northern Rivers Livestock Exchange has been vacant since early July when relations between the landlord council and local agents soured

 

Northern Rivers Livestock Exchange, Casino
IMAGE: queenslandcountrylife.com.au, 7 March 2023

The majority of cattle/store sheep saleyards in Australia are owned by local government councils.

The Northern Rivers Livestock Exchange, better known as the Casino saleyards, is owned by Richmond Valley Council and has been in business since 1916.

As the Northern River regional facility it had the third-largest cattle throughput in NSW in 2020-21 with 103,700 cattle.

In mid-2023 Richmond Valley Council implemented a new business plan which included the addition of two new agents, as well as significant changes to sale day and delivery operations. While vendor fees remain fixed for another three years, the business usage fee rose from $1 a head to 0.2 per cent of gross revenue and local graziers baulked.  

This is not the first time in its history that a fee dispute has closed the Casino saleyards, but it appears to be shaping up as the one which may see these saleyards gone for good given that the threat of widespread, possibly prolonged, drought appears to be growing which will affect the NSW cattle industry with north-east of the state likely to feel the full impact soonest.

Queensland Country Life, 28 September 2023:

The Casino saleyards in NSW will be offered to the private sector for long-term lease following an unresolved stand-off between the council and local livestock agents.

A unanimous vote from Richmond Valley councillors signalled a resolve to months of bickering between the council as landlord of the Northern Rivers Livestock Exchange and five livestock agencies that used the facility.

There have been no cattle sales at NRLX since the start of the financial year, after local agents refused to sign-up to new conditions regarding increased costs and handling of livestock after the fall of the hammer.

Earlier this month a public meeting brought more than 700 people together in support of their selling agents, with few seeing things the council's way.

"Following the public meeting, a further attempt was made to reach consensus with the agents and re-open sales at the NRLX," council's general manager Vaughan Macdonald said in a written report to councillors.

"This meeting was unsuccessful, marking the seventh failed attempt at seeking details to achieve a resolution. In these circumstances, it would appear that the likelihood of reaching a consensus is minimal and further attempts at resolution will only prolong the impacts on cattle producers who use the NRLX. Council now finds itself at the point where a long-term solution is required, to ensure that cattle sales can resume as soon as possible, and the NRLX continues to play a pivotal role in the regional economy."

Mr Macdonald told councillors that the facility, with a $28.5m replacement cost, would be offered to the private sector with a lease arrangement drawn up within three months for a term from five to 30 years.

At the core of the motion was the concern that Richmond Valley ratepayers were currently footing $60 a year for every rateable property to prop-up a deficit of $647,303.

In the interim, the council will continue to explore avenues to reestablish sales at the facility, provided agents accept its current demands.

"The Voice" Referendum State of Play 2023: Lower Clarence Valley

 

In 2023 there have only been a handful of letters to the "Clarence Valley Independent" editor published online to date concerning the proposed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples Voice to Parliament.

Here are the two most recent......

Clarence Valley Independent online:

The quiet voice

September 27, 2023 -

Ed,

In the lead up to the referendum, we’re hearing a lot of controversy. The quieter voices get less airplay. Yet these are the important voices.

Boots on the ground Larrakia Elder Aunty Bilawara Lee is one such quiet voice. She says:

“The Voice gives us a platform and a way forward. This referendum isn’t about politics or constitutions or governments or legislation – it came from us, not from them.

It’s about how do we keep our kids at school? How do we fight the scourge of domestic violence, suicide, and poor mental health?

How do we stop repeating this same terrible cycle, decade after decade?

We’re not asking for money; we’re not asking for your backyards. We want recognition and acknowledgment; we want to be included.

Some people say to me “You’re an elder, why don’t you fix this problem.”

Well, we need to have a seat at the table. Let me have a say and bring our suggested solutions to these major issues.”

How to support the quiet voices? By voting Yes.

Shakti Burke, Maclean

Understanding the Voice

September 20, 2023 -

Ed,

I was unaware of how a Voice to Parliament would be implemented and have read as much as I can find on the question of the referendum and now have a better understanding.

The terms of reference, size, mode of election for the Voice will be determined by the parliament not by the prime minister. This does make it fairly clear why as yet we have not been given details of how it would be implemented.

Since the Albanese government does not have a majority in both houses of parliament, the composition and function of the Voice will require negotiation and compromise, in which Mr Dutton and members who are advocating a ‘No’ vote will be able play a constructive role in the make up, size, mode of election and terms of reference for the Voice to Parliament. This includes our Federal Member Kevin Hogan who recently claimed he is concerned about who is on the Voice and how they are chosen to be on the Voice etc.

Hopefully as the next few weeks go by, we will gain more of any understanding of this process and less vitriol and negativity on such an important question.

Annie Dorrian, Iluka

There are also events like this one on Sunday, 1 October 2023, at Pilot Hill, Yamba.....

Photo: Maiara Skarheim, Look Right Productions

Photographer not identified

Video by Frankie Belle Parker

Tweed Shire expects to start rolling out water restrictions within next few weeks and rest of the Northern Rivers region likely to be following its lead sooner rather than later

NSWDPI Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) mapping, 23 September 2023. CDI = Combined Drought Indicator. RI = Rainfall Index. SWI = Soil Water Index. PGI = Pasture Growth Index. DDI = Drought Direction Index

Click on map to enlarge

There are 19 large dams on NSW regional regulated rivers and hundreds of smaller dams, reservoirs & weirs associated with a mix of environmental use, off-farm agricultural and urban water storage on other rivers.

Across the seven local government areas in the Northern Rivers region water storage locations include:

Toonumbar Dam

Rocky Creek Dam

Clarrie Hall Dam

Emmigrant Creek Dam

Korrumbyn Creek Dam

Shannon Creek Dam

Bray Park weir

Tyalgum weir

Mullumbimby Power Station weir

Jambour weir

Kyogle weir

Nymboida weir

Rushforth Road 100ML Reservoir.

Tweed Shire Council is strongly alerting its residents and ratepayers as to the current situation and what may lie ahead.

The Echo, 27 September 2023:

Following the devastating floods of 2022 we are back to dry weather. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has declared an El Nino weather pattern and it has predicted that there will be less-than-average rainfall in the Northern Rivers this year. Tweed Council is reminding residents and visitors that it is important to save water as we head into dry weather.

‘Without significant rain, the Tweed will head into water restrictions, with restrictions for Tyalgum looking likely in the next few weeks,’ said Tweed Shire Council’s (TSC) water and wastewater business and assets manager Michael Wraight.

‘We source our water from the Tweed River at Bray Park and Uki, plus the Oxley River at Tyalgum. The river flows are down and the weir pools at Bray Park and Tyalgum are drying up.

‘While Clarrie Hall Dam is currently sitting at 98 per cent capacity, it will now drop about 1 to 1.5 per cent, per week, as we start releasing water to supply the Bray Park Weir – the source of water for most of the Shire.

‘We will trigger level 1 water restrictions when the Clarrie Hall Dam level drops to 85 per cent.

‘Restrictions at Tyalgum will be introduced sooner. The flow of the Oxley River at Tyalgum is down to a trickle and the weir pool there is dropping fast.’