Six Nervous Pollies or Where will NSW lose its next federal electorate in 2009?

In December 2008 Malcolm McKerras predicted that the NSW electorates of Gilmore and Throsby would possibly merge in any 2009 redistribution.
In February 2009 Antony Green is tipping; "Fowler and Macarthur are currently the NSW electorates with the lowest total enrolment and therefore subject to amalgamation, not Gilmore and Throsby. However, if the branch of Sydney Harbour known as Iron Cove is ignored and the boundary viewed as contigous, then any mini-redistribution on current numbers would see Lowe and Sydney amalgamated."
The Australian Electoral Commission has begun the lengthy redistribution process.
So which pollie will have to go?
And does this mean that we have avoided a politically expedient early federal election push by the government of the day or an opposition trying to scare us with the threat of one?