Seven weeks out from the beginning of the Australian Summer meteorologists were predicting "unusually high temperatures from December through to February

 

This is an ABC News article extract on 11 October 2024:

Australia is facing one of the hottest summers on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) weather modelling, which tips well-above-average temperatures across the country.

The forecast for a scorching summer is largely due to ongoing high ocean temperatures surrounding Australia, a persistent feature that has plagued most of the globe since early last year.

The warm seas will not only raise air temperatures but also boost atmospheric moisture levels, swinging the odds to favour frequent storm outbreaks and above-average rain.

Our simmering oceans could also lead to the most active cyclone season in years, with the BOM expecting around 11 named storms in the Australian region, including an increased risk of severe (category three or above) systems.

Of the past six years, the three that were not La Niña periods took the top three spots as Australia's hottest summers on record, all with mean temperatures more than 1.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

This trend suggests this summer will also produce well-above-average temperatures — a prediction supported by seasonal modelling.

The BOM's initial summer forecast, released this week, shows a greater than 80 per cent chance of minimum temperatures in the top 20 per cent of years — which the BOM label "unusually high temperatures"....

So how do conditions look now in Spring 2024?

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM):

Weekly sea surface temperatures

PACIFC OCEAN SEA SURFACE HEAT MAP

Weekly temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific

For the week ending 13 October 2024, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were:

• 0.8–2 °C warmer than the 1991–2020 average in the far western and parts of the far eastern equatorial Pacific

• 0.8–2 °C cooler than average in the central equatorial Pacific

• warmer than average across much of the north Pacific, with much of the region surrounding and to the east of Japan more than 3–4 °C warmer than average

• 0.8–2 °C warmer than average around the north-west of Australia's coastline and parts of the Tasman and Coral seas

• 0.4–1.2 °C warmer than average across most of the Maritime Continent.

The Niño indices for the week ending 13 October 2024 are:

Niño3, −0.1 °C; Niño3.4, −0.5 °C; and Niño4, +0.04 °C. The Niño3.4 index reflects historically neutral ENSO conditions.

5-day sub-surface temperatures

For the 5 days ending 13 October 2024, the analysis shows:

• sub-surface temperatures around 1 °C cooler than average in the central equatorial Pacific (between 125 m and 200 m depth) and in the eastern equatorial Pacific (between 50 m and 100 m depth).

• sub-surface temperature anomalies more than 3 °C warmer than average in the shallow eastern equatorial sub-surface (above 50 m depth).

Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 10 October 2024

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

• Above average rainfall is likely across much of southern and eastern Australia.

• Warmer than average days and nights are likely to very likely across most of Australia.

• Unusually high minimum temperatures are very likely for much of northern and eastern Australia.

Our forecasts have greater accuracy closer to the forecast period. Refer to our weekly updates to follow the evolution of rainfall and temperature patterns as the November to January season approaches.

New South Wales forecast air temperature over land

Max temperature - The chance of above median max temperature for 20 Oct – 2 Nov

A solution to a vexing concern that has plagued the Lismore community since the catastrophic flood of 2022 or another relocation mirage that will dissolve over time?

 

A genuine solution to a vexing concern that has plagued the Lismore community since the catastrophic flood of 2022, another relocation mirage which will dissolve over time or a wedge allowing more farmland to be lost to urban development?

ECHO, 16 October 2024:

To assist with relocating dwellings purchased through the NSW Reconstruction Authority’s Resilient Homes program, Lismore City Council has received an exemption that could potentially open up additional rural sites for house relocations.

The Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure (DPHI) has granted Lismore Council an exemption allowing staff to consider the suitability of existing rural allotments where no dwelling entitlement currently exists.

Under the Lismore Local Environmental Plan (LEP), a rural allotment must meet minimum lot size requirements for a dwelling entitlement. This is generally 40 hectares or 20 hectares in some areas. Many smaller rural lots also have dwelling entitlements because of the planning controls applicable when they were created.

However, many rural allotments do not meet the requirements for a dwelling entitlement for various historical reasons, generally because they were historically part of a larger land holding.

A dwelling entitlement does not automatically mean a dwelling can be built (or relocated) on the land. It means Lismore Council can consider a DA and assess the site’s suitability for a dwelling......

Council’s Head of Planning and Environment, Graham Snow, said it’s senseless to abandon structurally sound homes when they could be relocated to accommodate people.

‘It doesn’t make sense that we have hundreds of abandoned houses that are structurally sound that could be housing people,’ he said. ‘The challenge is to find suitable sites where they could be relocated. The Reconstruction Authority’s Resilient Lands program will facilitate house relocations to Goonellabah, East Lismore and North Lismore sites. Still, it could be years before some of these sites are ready.

‘Hopefully, this exemption from DPHI will increase the opportunity for buy-back recipients and others to find suitable rural lots for our historic timber homes,’ said Mr Snow.

Things to consider

Some key points regarding re-siting dwellings to rural lots and exemption terms include:

• The suitability of a rural site will need to consider buffers to existing agriculture and watercourses, vehicle access, biodiversity values and risk from bushfire and flooding, etc. In general terms, sites within the flood planning area will not be considered suitable.

• The exemption from DPHI applies for two years (until September 30, 2026).

• No additional rural subdivisions below minimum lot size are permissible. The exemption only applies to existing lots.

You can find more details and the full Fact Sheet on Lismore Council’s Future Housing page under the Relocating Dwellings tab at www.lismore.nsw.gov.au/Building-and-planning/Strategic-planning/Future-housing.

COVID-19 STATE OF PLAY AUSTRALIA 2024: "the mortality experience" in an epoch of obfuscation

 

ACTUARIES INSTITUTE, Mortality Working Group, 12 September 2024:

Mortality in First Five Months of 2024 Was Slightly Higher than Prediction

In summary:

• Total mortality was 1% higher than the new baseline for the first five months of 2024.

• The mortality experience of 2024 includes higher COVID-19 mortality than predicted from March to May.

• Mortality from the COVID-19 wave that started in April 2024 rose more sharply than predicted and by May had reached a higher level than anticipated.

• For 2024, the Working Group measures mortality relative to 2023, allowing for some mortality improvement and an estimate of COVID-19 mortality (see April 2024 and June 2024 blogs).

Table 1 – Excess deaths in Australia (versus 2023-based expectation) – by cause of death for January to May 2024

COVID-19 was a much more significant cause of mortality in the first five months of 2024 than influenza (1,610 doctor-certified deaths for COVID-19 versus 144 for influenza).

The last Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report indicated that between 1 January and 22 September 2024 there were a total of 237,001 confirmed COVID-19 infections officially recorded in Australia, with 44 per cent of all cases being with New South Wales.

According to NSW Health from 1 January to 5 October 2024 there were 108,777 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the state, with by far the highest concentration found in Western Sydney at 20,305 confirmed infections (or 19% of all officially recorded cases across NSW).

In relation to COVID-19 deaths, all state and federal departments and agencies have perfected the art of fudging the data by making it difficult to compare across agencies/sources.

However, Australia-wide from 1 January to 31 August 2024 there were 2,943 doctor certified deaths due to COVID-19 respiratory infection [ABS 30.09.24]

The cohort group with the highest mortality numbers appears to be aged care residents, with recorded deaths due to COVID-19 reaching 7,019 individuals between 1 January to 10 October 2024 [Australian Govt. DoH, 11.10.24]

In New South Wales according to ABC News (14.10.24) NSW Ministry of Health data released under freedom of information laws showed 1,729 hospital inpatients catching COVID-19 and 86 dying between January and April this year.

A busy weekend saw NSW Police issue more than 985 traffic infringement & other notices along the key coastal transport routes between the NSW-Vic border and the NSW-Qld border, 12-13 October 2024

 

SCORECARD 2-DAY MATCH

NSW POLICE

985+ traffic infringement & other offences     

ASSORTED MOTORISTS

0

NSW Police News, 14 October 2024:

More than 500 speeding tickets issued during Operation Border to Border

Monday, 14 October 2024 07:00:42 PM

More than 500 speeding infringements have been issued during a major border-focused school holiday traffic operation aimed at reducing road trauma.

Operation Border to Border ran from Saturday 12 October 2024 to Sunday 13 October 2024, targeting the key transport routes of the Princes Highway and Pacific Highway and Motorway between the Queensland border and Victorian border.

The two-day high-visibility operation involved more than 60 officers attached to Traffic and Highway Patrol Command from Northern, Central Metropolitan and Southern regions, targeting speeding, dangerous driving, impaired driving, distracted driving and driver fatigue.

The operation was bolstered in the border regions by highway patrol officers from Queensland Police and Victoria Police.

The operation utilised mobile and stationary random breath testing and random drug testing.

In total, 2214 random breath tests and more than 330 random drug tests were conducted.

NSW Police detected seven positive breath tests and 36 positive drug tests.

More than 520 drivers were detected speeding, with eight drivers charged with exceed speed limit by more than 45 km/h.

There were a further 30 disqualified, suspended or unlicensed drivers detected and 375 other traffic infringement notices including 26 drivers issued with mobile phone offences.

An additional 12 traffic-related charges and three criminal charges were laid, with two heavy-vehicle infringements and one defect notice issued.

Incidents of note:

> Shortly before 7am on Saturday 12 October 2024, Illawarra Highway Patrol were conducting speed enforcement duties on the M1 at Berkeley when they stopped a Ford Territory driven by a 32-year-old woman. Police allege she was speeding and had two children not correctly restrained in the car. A check of her driver’s licence also allegedly indicated it was disqualified. She was issued with a field court attendance notice for drive whilst disqualified to appear at Port Kembla Local Court on Wednesday 4 December 2024. The woman was given two penalty notices for exceed speed limit and drive with two passengers seatbelt/restraint not property adjusted/fastened.

> About 11am on Saturday 12 October 2024, Sutherland Highway Patrol allegedly detected a learner driver on the Princes Motorway, Cataract exceeding the speed limit. The 16-year-old boy was issued with traffic infringement notices for learner driver exceed speed limit – over 45km/h and learner not display L plates as prescribed. The supervisor was issued a traffic infringement notice for failing to prevent breach of legislation.

> About 10.30am on Sunday 13 October 2024, Lake Illawarra Highway patrol were conducting speed enforcement duties on the Princes Highway, Yallah when a 27-year-old driver was stopped for allegedly speeding. He was issued a penalty notice for driver exceed speed limit – over 45km/h and his licence was suspended for six months.

> About 2.30pm on Sunday 13 October 2024, Richmond Highway Patrol alleged detected a provisional two driver speeding on the Pacific Highway, Mororo. A 19-year-old man was issued with a traffic infringement notice for driver exceed speed limit – over 45km/h and his licence was suspended for six months.

Australia's fire ant invasion problem has moved from concerns about chronic eradication program underfunding to non-compliance of property owners fuelled by Facebook discussion

 

For the last forty-three years that invasive species, the Fire Ant, has been increasing in number and territory until now it infests around 830,000 ha in South East Queensland, close to the Qld-NSW border, and in recent years has been found as far south in New South Wales as Murwillumbah in November 2023 and Wardell, near Ballina, in January 2024.

The Fire Ant infestation program began to move beyond a target of total eradication to one of suppression and containment after the Queensland Newman Coalition Government in 2012 cut 45 jobs from its fire ant eradication program and reduced state funding by 50 per cent to about $1.1 million for the next year.

In an August 2023 media release the Invasive Species Council revealed the existence of government documents that detailed at least a $49 million shortfall in fire ant funding for 2023/24, risking the spread of the super pest across Australia.

"The explosive documents reveal that, due to insufficient funding, eradication and surveillance on the ground in Queensland this year has been cut in half from what is needed.

They also reveal that there will be no systematic action to stop the westward or northern spread of fire ants, with action confined to stopping the spread into NSW."

Mainstream and social media are now reporting espisodes involving non-compliant property owners and "government eradicators".

Non-compliance increases the risk infestations will spread even further across Queenland and deeper into New South Wales.

Quotes from Facebook account "Stop the toxic fire ant poisoning":

• "Pseudoscience, false and misleading information, and complete lies and gaslighting are used to justify their dangerous approach to eradicate fire ants, which many experts publicly state is now impossible."

• "The toxic fire ant eradication program by the Australian Government is killing dogs, cats, cows, horses, bees, birds and many other animals and insects.
  This is how to stop them entering your property..."

It is noted that the two insecticides currently listed as used in the Qld fire ant eradication program are hydramethylnon & pyriproxyfen.  Both products approved by the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority (APVMA) and commonly found in cockroach baits or flea collars. While in NSW APVMA-approved pyriproxyfen, s-methoprene and fipronil are used, with the latter approved only for direct injection into fire ant nests.

The Daily Telegraph, "Bombshell report reveals fire ants could kill six people a year, cost homes $110m+", 13 October 2024, excerpts:

A notorious pest could cause up to six deaths, lead to 116,000 medical visits and cost households $118m a year if allowed to spread uncontrolled across one Aussie state, a bombshell report has found.

The chilling warning comes as biosecurity authorities scramble to contain the spread of the red imported fire ant, which has rapidly spread across Queensland and even extended down into NSW.

But recent eradication attempts in Queensland are facing a difficult step as landholders – concerned about the ant bait being “toxic” and fearing its impacts on the ecosystem and their livestock – face off with government eradicators.

Some are now refusing entry to treatment officers attempting to spread the bait, which is also found in fly sprays and pet flea tablets.

The ongoing tension has led to police stepping in amid mounting stand-offs with the mandatory treatment program...

Police called in to assist with landowner stand-offs

Treating officers working under the NFAEP are allowed under law to enter Queensland properties for eradication without the consent of owners.

The program still maintains preference to work with landowners to undertake eradication at a time that suits their convenience – informing owners of the planned eradication through letterbox drops, emails, phone calls and texts.

But stand-offs have emerged between some owners and eradication officers who are refused entry.

One Facebook group calling on people to stop the “toxic” program urges landowners to refuse entry, erect signs warning of trespassing and provide a “reasonable excuse” under the Biosecurity Act 2014 to stop entry.

In some posts, landowners are seen confronting eradication staff.

People face hefty fines for obstructing designated officers under Queensland law.

In a statement, Queensland Police confirmed it had been requested to assist some NFAEP staff by “facilitating access to properties where occupants are not compliant with the treatment process”.

“Special duties officers will be allocated to this task, ensuring no impact on the delivery of frontline services,” a police spokeswoman said.

“This collaboration aims to support biosecurity efforts while maintaining essential policing operations.”

Human Rights Council report on Israel's "concerted policy to destroy Gaza’s healthcare system as part of a broader assault on Gaza" will be presents to UN General Assembly’s 79th session on 30 October 2024

 

Given that Gaza, the West Bank and the wider  Middle East conflict have now become part of the increasingly intense Australian political debate surrounding the next federal general election in May 2025, the following is posted today.

UNITED NATIONS HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL, media release, 10 October 2024:

UNCommission finds war crimes and crimes against humanity in Israeliattacks on Gaza health facilities and treatment of detainees,hostages

GENEVA (10 October 2024) – Israel has perpetrated a concerted policy to destroy Gaza’s healthcare system as part of a broader assault on Gaza, committing war crimes and the crime against humanity of extermination with relentless and deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel said in a newreport today.

The Commission also investigated the treatment of Palestinian detainees in Israel and of Israeli and foreign hostages in Gaza since 7 October 2023, and concluded that Israel and Palestinian armed groups are responsible for torture and sexual and gender-based violence.

“Israel must immediately stop its unprecedented wanton destruction of healthcare facilities in Gaza,” said Navi Pillay, Chair of the Commission. “By targeting healthcare facilities, Israel is targeting the right to health itself with significant long-term detrimental effects on the civilian population. Children in particular have borne the brunt of these attacks, suffering both directly and indirectly from the collapse of the health system.”

The report found that Israeli security forces have deliberately killed, detained and tortured medical personnel and targeted medical vehicles while tightening their siege on Gaza and restricting permits to leave the territory for medical treatment. These actions constitute the war crimes of wilful killing and mistreatment and of the destruction of protected civilian property and the crime against humanity of extermination.

Attacks on medical facilities in Gaza, particularly those devoted to paediatric and neonatal care, have led to incalculable suffering of child patients, including newborns, the report said. In continuing these attacks, Israel has violated children’s right to life, denied children access to basic healthcare, and deliberately inflicted conditions of life resulting in the destruction of generations of Palestinian children and, potentially, the Palestinian people as a group.

In one of the most egregious cases, the Commission investigated the killing of five-year-old Hind Rajab, along with her extended family, and the shelling of a Palestinian Red Crescent Society ambulance and killing of two paramedics sent to rescue her. The Commission determined on reasonable grounds that the Israeli Army’s 162nd Division operated in the area and is responsible for killing the family of seven, shelling the ambulance and killing the two paramedics inside. This constitutes the war crimes of wilful killing and an attack against civilian objects.

The deliberate destruction of health infrastructure providing sexual and reproductive healthcare, combined with the lack of access and availability to healthcare, is also a violation of women’s and girls’ reproductive rights and their right to life, health, human dignity and non-discrimination, as well as the crime against humanity of other inhumane acts.

Regarding the detention of Palestinians in Israeli military camps and detention facilities, the report found that thousands of child and adult detainees, many of whom were arbitrarily detained, have been subjected to widespread and systematic abuse, physical and psychological violence, and sexual and gender-based violence amounting to the war crime and crime against humanity of torture and the war crime of rape and other forms of sexual violence. Male detainees were subjected to rape, as well as attacks on their sexual and reproductive organs and forced to perform humiliating and strenuous acts while naked or stripped as a form of punishment or intimidation to extract information. The deaths of detainees as a result of abuse or neglect amount to the war crimes of wilful killing or murder and violations of the right to life.

Child detainees released by Israeli authorities have returned to Gaza severely traumatized, unaccompanied, with limited ability to locate or communicate with their families.

The report found that the institutionalized mistreatment of Palestinian detainees, a longstanding characteristic of the occupation, took place under direct orders from the Israeli Minister in charge of the prison system, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and was fuelled by Israeli government statements inciting violence and retribution.

“The appalling acts of abuse committed against Palestinian detainees require accountability and reparations for the victims,” said Pillay. “The lack of accountability for actions ordered by senior Israeli authorities and carried out by individual members of Israeli security forces and the increasing acceptance of violence against Palestinians have allowed such conduct to continue uninterrupted, becoming systematic and institutionalized.”

Regarding the Israeli and foreign hostages held in Gaza by Palestinian armed groups, the report found that many were mistreated to inflict physical pain and severe mental suffering, including physical violence, abuse, sexual violence, forced isolation, limited access to hygiene facilities, water and food, threats and humiliation. Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups forced hostages to participate in videos with the intent of inflicting psychological torture on the families of hostages, to achieve political aims. Several hostages were killed in captivity. Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups committed the war crimes of torture, inhuman or cruel treatment, and the crimes against humanity of enforced disappearance and other inhumane acts causing great suffering or serious injury.

“Palestinian armed groups must release immediately and unconditionally all Israeli and foreign hostages held in Gaza. Hostages must be treated in accordance with the requirements of international humanitarian law and international human rights law until they are released,” said Pillay.

The Commission urges Israel’s Government to immediately cease targeting medical facilities, staff and vehicles, halt the arbitrary and unlawful detention of Palestinians, including children, and end torture and other ill-treatment of all those who have been arrested or detained.

The Commission calls on the Government of the State of Palestine and the de-facto authorities in Gaza to ensure the protection and safe release of all hostages immediately and unconditionally, and thoroughly and impartially investigate and prosecute violations of international law, including the targeting of medical facilities in Israel.

Addressing the conflict’s root causes, the Commission urges the Government of Israel to comply with the directions of the July 2024 Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice to end the unlawful occupation of Palestinian territory, cease new settlement plans and activities, evacuate all settlers and make reparations to victims. It also calls on Israel to comply with provisional measures ordered by the International Court of Justice to prevent the commission of all acts within the scope of Article II(a)-(d) of the Genocide Convention.

The Commission’s report will be presented to the General Assembly’s 79th session on 30 October 2024 in New York.

Background: The UN HumanRights Council mandated the Commission on 27 May 2021 to “investigate, in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and in Israel, all alleged violations of international humanitarian law and all alleged violations and abuses of international human rights law leading up to and since 13 April 2021.” Resolution A/HRC/RES/S-30/1 further requested the commission of inquiry to “investigate all underlying root causes of recurrent tensions, instability and protraction of conflict, including systematic discrimination and repression based on national, ethnic, racial or religious identity.” The Commission of Inquiry was mandated to report to the Human Rights Council and the General Assembly annually commencing from June 2022 and September 2022, respectively.

More information on the work of the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel, can be found here.

The third report to the U.N. General Assembly on 11 October 2024, Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel (24 pages) can be read and downloaded at:

https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/gen/n24/262/79/pdf/n2426279.pdf

Exerpt from Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and Israel, 11 September 2024:

III. Factual findings

A. Attacks on medical facilities and personnel

6.     According to the World Health Organization (WHO), between 7 October 2023 and 30 July 2024, Israel carried out 498 attacks on health-care facilities in the Gaza Strip. A total of 747 persons were killed directly in those attacks and 969 others were injured, and 110 facilities were affected. WHO reported that 78 per cent of the attacks between 7 October 2023 and 12 February 2024 were carried out through military force, while 35 per cent involved obstruction of access and 9 per cent involved militarized search and detention operations. Attacks were widespread and systematic, starting in the north of the Gaza Strip (October to December 2023) and then later occurring in the centre (December 2023 to January 2024), the south (January to March 2024) and other areas (April to June 2024). The stated justification of the Israeli security forces for the attacks was that Hamas was using hospitals for military purposes, including as command-and-control centres.

7.     Israeli security forces carried out air strikes against hospitals, causing considerable damage to buildings and surroundings, as well as multiple casualties;

surrounded and besieged hospital premises; prevented the entry of goods and medical equipment and exit/entry of civilians; issued evacuation orders but prevented safe evacuations; and raided hospitals, arresting hospital staff and patients. Israeli security

forces also obstructed access by humanitarian agencies.

8.     According to the Ministry of Health in Gaza, 500 medical staff were killed between 7 October and 23 June. The Palestine Red Crescent Society reported that 19 of its staff or volunteers had been killed since 7 October, and that many others had been detained and attacked. Medical personnel stated that they believed they had been intentionally targeted.

9.     Hundreds of medical personnel, including three hospital directors and the head of an orthopaedic department, as well as patients and journalists were arrested by Israeli security forces in Shifa’, Nasr and Awdah hospitals during offensives. In at least two cases, senior medical personnel died in Israeli detention (see paras. 70 –72). Reportedly, 128 health workers remain detained by Israeli authorities as at 15 July, including four Palestine Red Crescent Society staff members.

10.     As at 15 July, 113 ambulances had been attacked and at least 61 had been damaged. The Commission documented direct attacks on medical convoys operated by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the United Nations, the Palestine Red Crescent Society and non-governmental organizations. Access was also reduced owing to closure of areas by Israeli security forces, delays in coordination of safe routes, checkpoints, searches or destruction of roads.

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