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| Bureau of Meteorology, 08.11.23 |
Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Diver Update Summary, by email, 8 November 2023:
El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole continue
El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Climate model forecasts indicate some further warming of the central to eastern Pacific is likely, with SSTs remaining above El Niño thresholds into the early southern hemisphere autumn 2024.
The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event persists. All models indicate that this positive IOD will likely continue into early December.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is currently positive with forecasts indicating it will return to neutral in the coming days.
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak. Approximately half of international climate models suggest the MJO will strengthen and move eastwards across the western Pacific later this week. When the MJO is in the western Pacific, there is an increased chance of showers and rain over northern parts of the NT and Queensland.
Global warming continues to influence Australian and global climate. Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were highest on record for their respective months during April to October.
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