It is hard reading the United Nations Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (COP28) final document titled "Outcome of Global Stocktake" Revised Advance Version, 13 December 2023.
It announces itself pleased that the world is on track to limit global warming to "an increase in the range of 2.1–2.8 °C with the full implementation of the latest nationally determined contributions" by the 196 parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21).
The document posits that the world has until 2050 before it needs to have completed "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" by using, among other things, "renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production". This tool kit is expected to keep the global surface temperature of the Earth at an average1.5°C with no or limited overshoot.
The Closing Plenary Remarks of COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber were just as unrealistic:
"Excellencies, colleagues and friends. First let me say As-Salamu Alaykum … and thank you…We have travelled a long road together… in a short amount of time. Over the last two weeks, we have worked very hard to secure a better future for our people and our planet. We should be proud of our historic achievement. And the United Arab
Emirates…my country… is rightly proud of its role in helping you to move this forward.
Ladies and gentlemen, the world needed to find a new way. By following our North Star, we have found that path. We have delivered a comprehensive response to the Global Stocktake and all the other mandates. Together, we have confronted realities and we have set the world in the right direction. We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5 within reach. It is a plan that is led by the science. It is a balanced plan, that tackles emissions, bridges the gap on adaptation, reimagines global finance, and delivers on loss and damage. It is built on common ground. It is strengthened by inclusivity. And it is reinforced by collaboration.
It is an enhanced, balanced, but… make no mistake… historic package to accelerate climate action. It is…the UAE Consensus".....
The situation we find ourselves in is very different from the unrealistic imagining of government and industry representatives in Dubai UAE over the fourteen conference days between 30 November to 13 December 2023.
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Fig. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis.[1],[2] |
Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good
14 November 2023
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy
Abstract. Global warming is accelerating because the drive for warming, Earth’s energy imbalance, has doubled in the past decade. Measurement of the acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical (El Nino/La Nina) variability, but a good measuring stick is provided by warming between successive large El Ninos. Strengthening of the current (2023-24) El Nino has raised it to a level similar to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos. The first six months of the current El Nino are 0.39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015-16 El Nino, a global warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, consistent with expectation of a large acceleration of global warming. We expect the 12-month mean temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt about global warming acceleration. Subsequent decline of the 12-month temperature below 1.5°C will likely be limited, confirming that the 1.5°C limit has already been passed.
Global temperature has increased 0.18°C/decade since 1970 (Fig. 1). Temperature prior to the current El Nino was ~1.2°C above the preindustrial level (taken to be the 1880-1920 average, the earliest period with reasonable global coverage of instrumental measurements). The goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change[3] and the Paris Agreement[4] is for the rate of warming to slow down so that global warming stabilizes at a level of 1.5°C or less. We find,[5] on the contrary, that global warming post-2010 must be in an accelerated warming phase, based on a large increase in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is the immediate drive for global temperature change. We project an acceleration of the post-2010 warming rate by 50-100 percent (yellow area in Fig. 1). Thus, global temperature is now accelerating past 1.5°C and it could reach 2°C in the 2030s, barring purposeful actions to reduce or reverse Earth’s energy imbalance.
Acceleration of global warming has been hidden so far by the large natural variability of global temperature, especially because of the unusual 3-year period of strong La Ninas that ended this year. If we wait long enough, say another decade, the changed trend will be obvious, but we need to understand the situation sooner. We will argue elsewhere[6] that actions to cool the planet should be taken within less than a decade if we are to have a good chance of avoiding polar climate change amplifications that would be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse.....
[my yellow highlighting]
Read the full paper at:
https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-acceleration-el-nino-measuring-stick-looks-good?e=[UNIQID]
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