Showing posts with label science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label science. Show all posts

Saturday 2 March 2024

Video of the Week



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoSYO3fApEc&t=231s


Official video for WELI “Kangaroo Time (Club Edit)” made for the 2024 'Dance Your PhD' Thesis Contest.

Four-minute video features drag queens, twerking, ballerinas, a classical Indian dancer and a bunch of friends from Canberra.

Overall competition winner.

 

Tuesday 19 December 2023

CLIMATE CRISIS: I don't know how many times and in how many ways governments & big business will have to be told the world had run out of time before they accept the science. A moot point because it is already too late


It is hard reading the United Nations Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (COP28) final document titled "Outcome of Global Stocktake" Revised Advance Version, 13 December 2023.


It announces itself pleased that the world is on track to limit global warming to "an increase in the range of 2.1–2.8 °C with the full implementation of the latest nationally determined contributions" by the 196 parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21).


The document posits that the world has until 2050 before it needs to have completed "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" by using, among other things, "renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbon hydrogen production". This tool kit is expected to keep the global surface temperature of the Earth at an average1.5°C with no or limited overshoot.


The Closing Plenary Remarks of COP28 President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber were just as unrealistic:

"Excellencies, colleagues and friends. First let me say As-Salamu Alaykum … and thank you…We have travelled a long road together… in a short amount of time. Over the last two weeks, we have worked very hard to secure a better future for our people and our planet. We should be proud of our historic achievement. And the United Arab

Emirates…my country… is rightly proud of its role in helping you to move this forward.

Ladies and gentlemen, the world needed to find a new way. By following our North Star, we have found that path. We have delivered a comprehensive response to the Global Stocktake and all the other mandates. Together, we have confronted realities and we have set the world in the right direction. We have given it a robust action plan to keep 1.5 within reach. It is a plan that is led by the science. It is a balanced plan, that tackles emissions, bridges the gap on adaptation, reimagines global finance, and delivers on loss and damage. It is built on common ground. It is strengthened by inclusivity. And it is reinforced by collaboration.

It is an enhanced, balanced, but… make no mistake… historic package to accelerate climate action. It is…the UAE Consensus".....


The situation we find ourselves in is very different from the unrealistic imagining of government and industry representatives in Dubai UAE over the fourteen conference days between 30 November to 13 December 2023.



Fig. 1. Global temperature relative to 1880-1920 based on the GISS analysis.[1],[2] 













Global Warming Acceleration: El Nino Measuring Stick Looks Good

14 November 2023

James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy


Abstract. Global warming is accelerating because the drive for warming, Earth’s energy imbalance, has doubled in the past decade. Measurement of the acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical (El Nino/La Nina) variability, but a good measuring stick is provided by warming between successive large El Ninos. Strengthening of the current (2023-24) El Nino has raised it to a level similar to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos. The first six months of the current El Nino are 0.39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015-16 El Nino, a global warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, consistent with expectation of a large acceleration of global warming. We expect the 12-month mean temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt about global warming acceleration. Subsequent decline of the 12-month temperature below 1.5°C will likely be limited, confirming that the 1.5°C limit has already been passed.


Global temperature has increased 0.18°C/decade since 1970 (Fig. 1). Temperature prior to the current El Nino was ~1.2°C above the preindustrial level (taken to be the 1880-1920 average, the earliest period with reasonable global coverage of instrumental measurements). The goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change[3] and the Paris Agreement[4] is for the rate of warming to slow down so that global warming stabilizes at a level of 1.5°C or less. We find,[5] on the contrary, that global warming post-2010 must be in an accelerated warming phase, based on a large increase in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is the immediate drive for global temperature change. We project an acceleration of the post-2010 warming rate by 50-100 percent (yellow area in Fig. 1). Thus, global temperature is now accelerating past 1.5°C and it could reach 2°C in the 2030s, barring purposeful actions to reduce or reverse Earth’s energy imbalance.

Acceleration of global warming has been hidden so far by the large natural variability of global temperature, especially because of the unusual 3-year period of strong La Ninas that ended this year. If we wait long enough, say another decade, the changed trend will be obvious, but we need to understand the situation sooner. We will argue elsewhere[6] that actions to cool the planet should be taken within less than a decade if we are to have a good chance of avoiding polar climate change amplifications that would be difficult, if not impossible, to reverse.....

[my yellow highlighting]


Read the full paper at:

https://mailchi.mp/caa/global-warming-acceleration-el-nino-measuring-stick-looks-good?e=[UNIQID] 


Wednesday 8 November 2023

Scientists call ‘Code Blue emergency’ for Australian oceans, as off-the-scale marine heat looms

 

OCEAN
IMAGE: AdobeStock_207088658







Climate Council, media release, 9 November 2023:



Scientists call ‘Code Blue emergency’ for Aussie oceans, as off-the-scale marine heat looms



AUSTRALIA’S OCEANS ARE in crisis, as extreme heat punishes marine life and raises the spectre of irreversible changes with profound consequences for all life on our planet, a new report has found.


The Climate Council’s CodeBlue: Oceans in Crisis report reveals the immense amount of climate-change induced heat currently being absorbed by the world’s oceans is equivalent to boiling the Sydney Harbour every eight minutes.


In addition, the Climate Council ran a highly targeted survey of 30 leading ocean scientists across five continents. All (100%) were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ concerned about climate-driven changes to the world’s oceans. Half (53%) said these changes were outpacing scientific predictions.


Overwhelmingly, these scientists agreed ‘rapidly phasing out fossil fuels’ is the single most important action governments could take to address ocean warming.


Report author and the Climate Council’s Research Director Dr Simon Bradshaw said: "The science can’t be any clearer: our oceans are in deep trouble. Today the ocean is absorbing excess heat energy that’s equivalent to five Hiroshima bomb explosions every second, or enough to boil Sydney Harbour every eight minutes. [my yellow highlighting]


"As our climate changes, driven by rampant burning of coal, oil and gas, our seas are transforming before our eyes. More frequent and severe marine heatwaves are pushing coral reefs to the brink, ice sheets are melting at an alarming rate, ocean currents are slowing and seas are rising. The climate crisis is also an ocean crisis.


"In hospital emergency rooms, a code blue is called when a very serious life-threatening event is underway. We are calling a code blue for our oceans today, because this threatens all the species that inhabit them, the people who depend on them, as well as all life on land.


"Over the past few decades as the climate has warmed, the oceans have done an incredible job of protecting us by absorbing CO2 and an immense amount of heat, but there’s a limit to what they can take and we are close to crossing dangerous tipping points. We must scale up the use of clean energy like solar and wind, backed by storage, as quickly as we can so the use of coal, oil and gas is phased out. Every step that cuts pollution will help secure our future."


Ocean scientist Professor Gretta Pecl, Director for the Centre for Marine Socioecology at the University of Tasmania, author of the Australian ocean section of the latest IPCC report and report co-author added: “Make no mistake, ocean scientists around the world are growing increasingly concerned about rapid and intensifying changes to our oceans.


"While much of the worry for the brutal summer ahead is quite rightly about the impact on our iconic Great Barrier Reef, the scientific community is also extremely concerned about the Great Southern Reef. With forecasts of unprecedented and 'off the charts' marine heat this summer, these critical marine ecosystems face risk of utter devastation.


"We’re observing the transformation of the oceans in real time, as marine species move to survive. In Australia, at least 200 marine species have shifted since 2003, with the vast majority headed south. As waters warm further south, many will have nowhere left to go.


"While climate change has already caused extensive change to our oceans - and we’ll continue to see devastating impacts for decades - stronger action by governments to reign in fossil fuels right now can limit future harms and ensure more species and ecosystems are given a fighting chance. Scientists agree: the single most important action we can take now is to leave fossil fuels in the polluting past - and it has to happen this decade."


Pro-surfer Adrian ‘Ace’ Buchan, Surfing Australia Deputy Chairman, has joined the Climate Council’s call to declare a Code Blue emergency, adding: “Surfers have a deep and spiritual connection to the ocean and we are deeply concerned about the devastating impact the climate crisis is having on our big blue playground. Erosion is threatening our most iconic surfing spots. Our water is being polluted from flood runoff and dangerous jellyfish moving south. Loss of coral reefs and impacts on sandbars, is not just altering where and how waves break, but is also having devastating impacts on marine life.


"This is all terrible news for the millions of ocean loving Aussies - every one of whom should be concerned and take note. This is a call to action: we must work to draw attention to the ocean’s plight and push for decisive and rapid climate action now."


Tishiko King, a proud Kulkalaig woman from Masig in Zenadth Kes (Torres Strait Islands) marine scientist and co-author of the report said: “We know what is needed to protect our futures: leaving fossil fuels in the ground, having the resources to adapt to our changing climate and ocean, being able to access funds to address loss and damage.


"We have the opportunity to work together: First Nations, Pacific Island nations, non-Indigenous Australians. It starts by listening, and understanding what we all have in common. The ocean is what connects us all together."


ENDS


The Climate Council is Australia’s leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. It was founded through community donations in 2013, immediately after the then-Abbott Government dismantled the Climate Commission. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au Or follow us on social media: facebook.com/climatecouncil and twitter.com/climatecouncil


Full report can be found at:

https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/code-blue-our-oceans-in-crisis/





Wednesday 25 October 2023

CLIMATE CHANGE STATE OF PLAY 2023: something of more than passing interest you may have missed in a legal judgment this October


 

In the matter of Kathleen O’Donnell versus the Commonwealth Of Australia22 July 2020 to 11 October 2023.


Ms. O’Donnell commenced a class action against the Australian Government during a period when Josh Frydenberg was Treasurer, Simon Birmingham was Minister for Finance, Christian Porter was Attorney-General and Prime Minister Scott Morrison had acquired the first two (Health & Finance) of five secret ministries. It was also a period where the nation was still coming to terms with the largescale impacts of climate change-induced megafires in the August 2019- March 2020 fire season.


This class action which ran for over three years eventually caused the Australian Government to declare a potential for financial risks with regard to certain classes of investors in the face of the systemic risk climate change poses to Australia’s financial and economic position.


FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA

O’DONNELL V COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA [2023] FCA 1227

ORDERS VID 482 of 2020


Excerpts from the order - all yellow highlighting is my own


REASONS FOR JUDGMENT

MURPHY J:


INTRODUCTION


1 This is an application for Court approval of the proposed settlement of a representative proceeding brought under Div 9.2 of the Federal Court Rules 2011 (Cth) (the Rules). The applicant, Kathleen O’Donnell, brings the proceeding against the respondent, the Commonwealth of Australia, doing so on her own behalf and on behalf of all persons who at any time on or since 7 July 2020 have acquired one or more Exchange-traded Australian Government Bonds units (exchange traded government bonds) in the form of an eTIB with code GSIC50; and/or one or more government bonds in the form of an eTB with code GSBE47, and who continue to hold one or more government bond as at the date of the fourth amended pleading, 20 December 2022 (group members).


2 The proceeding relates to the real, but until more recently, underacknowledged risks that climate change poses to Australia’s financial position. It alleges that the Commonwealth published information to investors and potential investors in exchange traded government bonds via “Information Statements”, “Term Sheets”, “Information Memoranda”, and a relevant website, and that the Commonwealth failed to disclose information about:


(a) the alleged physical risks of climate change, meaning impacts caused directly by a changing climate, and associated costs; and/or


(b) the alleged transition risks of climate change, meaning the impact of global and domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions, and associated costs.


3 The proceeding alleges that the existence of those risks mean that there was and is a real, rather than remote, risk that before the maturity dates of the exchange traded government bonds held by the applicant, there will be significantly increased Commonwealth budget deficits (by reason of reduced revenue and increased expenditure) relative to Australia’s annual GDP; and a significant increase in Commonwealth government borrowing, and accordingly a significant increase in government debt (relative to Australia’s annual GDP). In turn, and as a result of those risks, prior to the maturity date of the exchange traded government bonds held by the applicant and group members, it is alleged that there will be or is likely to be:


(a) a material and negative impact on the Commonwealth’s status and reputation as a reliable, safe and relatively risk-free insurer of sovereign debt securities;


(b) a higher risk of the Commonwealth not having the capacity to discharge its interest and principal obligations under the exchange traded government bonds held by the applicant and by the other persons holding exchange traded government bonds at the material times;


(c) a material and negative impact on the Commonwealth’s capacity to maintain its AAA status as an issuer of sovereign debt securities; and


(d) a likelihood of the Commonwealth heaving to pay higher interest rates than would otherwise be the case in respect of any new issue of exchange traded government bonds.


4 It is alleged that by failing to disclose material climate change information (being information that might reasonably be expected to have a material influence on the holders of exchange traded government bonds as to whether to hold or dispose of them and decisions by potential investors as to whether to purchase such bonds) the Commonwealth engaged in and continues to engage in conduct that is misleading or deceptive and/or likely to mislead or deceive in breach of s 12DA(1) of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act 2001 (Cth) (ASIC Act).


5 The proceeding seeks a declaration that the Commonwealth has engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct, but not damages.


6 Under the proposed settlement the Commonwealth has agreed to make a public statement in agreed terms regarding the systemic risk climate change poses to Australia’s financial and economic position, to be published on the website of the Department of Treasury within seven days. In return the applicants have agreed to seek Court approval of the proposed settlement and to seek leave to discontinue the proceeding on the basis that there be no order as to costs. The Commonwealth has agreed to support that application.


7 The agreed public statement includes the following:


4. Climate change is a systemic risk that presents significant risks and opportunities for Australia’s economy, regions, industries and communities. Achieving Australia’s emissions reduction commitments and realising the opportunities that accompany the transition will require significant investment by governments and the private sector. Uncertainty around the magnitude and timing of the physical impacts of climate change and the global transition to net zero emissions translates to uncertainty about the fiscal impacts of climate change. And, as a consequence, there is uncertainty about whether the fiscal impacts of climate change may affect (if at all) the value of Commonwealth Government Securities (also known as Australian Government Bonds or AGBs) and, in turn, eAGBs.


5. The economic and climatic changes brought about by climate change will have fiscal impacts. For example, the new industries and jobs emerging from the net zero transformation will impact the structure of the economy and, in turn, the tax base. Extreme weather events are also expected to occur with increased severity and frequency, which will increase demand for disaster relief payments and infrastructure repairs.

7. The Government is developing a package of sustainable finance reforms, including the establishment of a sovereign green bonds program and regulatory reforms, to increase the transparency and credibility of Australia’s growing sustainable finance market. The Government’s intention is that these reforms will assist investors to align their investment decisions with net zero emissions targets and increase the flow of capital towards new opportunities that support Australia’s net zero pathway.


8. In accordance with the requirements of the Climate Change Act 2022 (Cth), the Commonwealth will continue to publish an Annual Climate Change Statement. Among other things, the Annual Climate Change Statement addresses the risks to Australia from climate change impacts, such as those relating to Australia’s economy. The first Annual Climate Change Statement was tabled in Parliament on 1 December 2022 and may be found at https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/strategies/annual-climate-change-statement.


39 Turning then to the Commonwealth’s second point, it submits that another core difficulty with the applicant’s case is that it takes, in isolation, one possible cause of risks for the Australian economy and seeks to extrapolate from those risks an unpleaded and unprovable effect on exchange traded government bonds. It argues that after at least four attempts to plead her case over three years the applicant has still not been able to articulate:


(a) what risks she alleges the Commonwealth should have disclosed;


(b) what obligations she alleges the Commonwealth would not be able to honour (for example, the annual interest or the redemption of the exchange traded government bonds at maturity) and why, and when;


(c) how it is alleged that the Commonwealth would not be able to perform its obligations with respect to the applicant’s exchange traded government bonds considering that the Commonwealth has never defaulted on sovereign debt even in circumstances of global economic downturn;


(d) why the alleged climate change related risks would give rise to a reasonable expectation that those matters would be disclosed considering that the Commonwealth may have increases in expenditure and decreases in revenue caused by number of domestic and global circumstances and events including natural disasters, wars and pandemics unrelated to climate change; and


(e) how the information the applicant alleges the Commonwealth has not disclosed would have a material effect on the price of the exchange traded government bonds being traded on the market when the information she alleges has not been disclosed by the Commonwealth must be publicly known (if it is true) because it is referred to in the statement of claim in the proceedings.


40 These contentions are not without force, but they overstate the position. I doubt that it will be as difficult as the Commonwealth submits to establish that global warming and climate change gives rise to real, systemic risks to the Commonwealth’s coffers and therefore to the value of the change traded government bonds. For the purposes of the application I take judicial notice of the fact that the consensus position of leading climate scientists around the world is that global warming and climate change brings risks of more frequent and more intense bushfires, storm surges, coastal flooding, inland flooding, cyclones, droughts and other extreme weather events. To my mind, it seems likely that such events will give rise to a huge drain on Commonwealth resources and on the tax base over a very lengthy period, perhaps forever, and therefore also weigh on forecasts in relation to the Commonwealth’s financial and economic position.


41 I note that in Sharma v Minister for the Environment [2021] FCA 560; 391 ALR 1, Professor William Steffen, Emeritus Professor at the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University gave unchallenged evidence that “[a]s an overview, the planet’s atmosphere and ocean are heating at an increasing rate, polar ice is melting, extreme weather events are becoming more extreme, sea levels are rising, and ecosystems and species are being lost or degraded” (at [54]). He gave evidence that, if over multiple decades the global average surface temperature could be stabilised at or very close to 2°C above the pre-industrial level (which was the best available outcome, and there are real risks it may not be achieved) the effects for Australia would include a significant increase in the likelihood in any given year of extreme weather events: a 77% likelihood of severe heatwaves, power blackouts and bushfires; and a 74% likelihood of severe droughts, water restrictions and reduced crop yields (at [67]).


42 Based on climate modelling by the CSIRO and the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology he projected the following changes to Australia’s climate over the next few decades (at [67]):


Continued warming, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days.


A decrease in cool season rainfall across many regions of the south and east, likely leading to more time spent in drought.


A longer fire season for the south and east and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days.


More intense short-duration heavy rainfall events throughout the country.


Fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion projected to be of high intensity, with ongoing large variations from year to year.


Fewer east coast lows particularly during the cooler months of the year. For events that do occur, sea level rise will increase the severity of some coastal impacts.


More frequent, extensive, intense and longer-lasting marine heatwaves leading to increased risk of more frequent and severe bleaching events for coral reefs, including the Great Barrier and Ningaloo reefs.


Continued warming and acidification of its surrounding oceans.


Ongoing sea level rise. Recent research on potential ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet suggests that the upper end of projected global mean sea level rise could be higher than previously assessed (as high as 0.61 to 1.10 m global average by the end of the century for a high emissions pathway, although these changes vary by location).


More frequent extreme sea levels. For most of the Australian coast, extreme sea levels that had a probability of occurring once in a hundred years are projected to become an annual event by the end of this century with lower emissions, and by mid-century for higher emissions.


Professor Steffen projected much worse effects if the global average surface temperature could not be stabilised at a 2°C increase, and instead increased by about 3°C or 4°C: at [68] and [69].


43 The respondent in that proceeding was the Commonwealth Minister for the Environment. The Minister made no challenge to the scientific evidence advanced by the applicants, and by and large did not dispute “the nature of the risks and the dangers from global warning, including the possible catastrophe that may engulf the world and humanity”: see Minister for the Environment v Sharma [2022] FCAFC 35; 291 FCR 311 at [2]. There are good reasons to doubt that the Commonwealth would take any different stance in the present case in relation to the risks posed by climate change.


44 To my mind, it does not stretch imagination to think that the applicant may be able to establish that climate change bringing rising sea levels and coastal erosion, storm surges causing sea flooding of low-lying areas, more intense and more regular fires and floods, and droughts caused by increased temperatures and reduced rainfall, carries a real risk that it will have a substantial impact on communities, business, government infrastructure and the environment. In some areas insurance against bushfires and extreme weather events may become unavailable, or prohibitively expensive such that it is effectively unavailable. There may be an exodus of residents and businesses from some areas because of repeated and intense fires, floods, and other extreme weather events or the risk thereof. There must be a risk that the government will be forced to meet the substantial costs that result where individuals and businesses cannot do so, including through home buyback schemes, public housing projects, farm relocation assistance and the like. And it seems likely that there will be substantial costs for the Commonwealth government in protecting government infrastructure from such events, repairing or remediating government infrastructure after such events, and relocating core government services such as schools and hospitals. And if businesses and employment opportunities are degraded the tax base available to fund government expenditure reduces.


45 Of course, in a wealthy country like Australia, which has never defaulted on its sovereign debt obligations, it is likely to be complex and difficult for the applicant to establish that catastrophes of the nature described are likely to be such a drain on the public purse that there is a material risk that the Commonwealth may, in the future, be unable to perform its obligations with respect to exchange traded government bonds. Doing so will require the applicant to call expert witnesses about the relationship between such catastrophes, or the likelihood of them, on Australia’s financial and economic position and the likely effect on the value of exchange traded government bonds, in circumstances where there is no internationally agreed framework for assessing such risks. And it will be necessary for the applicant to prove any underlying assumptions about Australia’s economic and financial position and assessments about that position in the future so that the experts engaged in her case can express their opinions in terms applicable to Australia’s particular circumstances. This will be far from straightforward, and it will involve real complexities and difficulties for the applicant. There must be a real risk that the applicant will be unable to establish this.


46 Ninth, the applicant’s case has always been that the Commonwealth provided no information whatsoever to investors and potential investors about any risks of material adverse impacts on the Commonwealth’s financial position and to the value of the relevant exchange traded government bonds as a result of climate change. The information to be provided by way of the agreed public statement is some information about such risks. Whether, in the event the applicant is successful in the proceeding, the Commonwealth would be required to provide more extensive information than this will depend upon the evidence advanced about the extent of any risk found to exist. Put another way, the agreed public statement arguably falls within the range of reasonable outcomes in the proceeding in terms of the disclosure of the risks posed by climate change to the value of exchange traded government bonds.


47 I have accordingly made orders to approve the proposed settlement and to grant leave to the applicant to discontinue the proceeding with no order as to costs.


I certify that the preceding forty-seven (47) numbered paragraphs are a true copy of the Reasons for Judgment of the Honourable Justice Murphy.


Associate:


Dated: 13 October 2023


Sunday 8 January 2023

STATE OF PLAY: By 2022 the Earth was an est. 1.14°C hotter than its pre-industrial era average. Australian had warmed on average by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910. WHO warns that global heating of even 1.5°C is not considered safe & every additional tenth of a degree of warming will take a serious toll on people’s lives and health.

 

World Health Organisation, Climate change and health, excerpts, 30 October 2021:


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that to avert catastrophic health impacts and prevent millions of climate change-related deaths, the world must limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. Past emissions have already made a certain level of global temperature rise and other changes to the climate inevitable. Global heating of even 1.5°C is not considered safe, however; every additional tenth of a degree of warming will take a serious toll on people’s lives and health......


Climate-sensitive health risks


Climate change is already impacting health in a myriad of ways, including by leading to death and illness from increasingly frequent extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, storms and floods, the disruption of food systems, increases in zoonoses and food-, water- and vector-borne diseases, and mental health issues. Furthermore, climate change is undermining many of the social determinants for good health, such as livelihoods, equality and access to health care and social support structures. These climate-sensitive health risks are disproportionately felt by the most vulnerable and disadvantaged, including women, children, ethnic minorities, poor communities, migrants or displaced persons, older populations, and those with underlying health conditions.




Figure: An overview of climate-sensitive health risks, their exposure pathways and vulnerability factors. Climate change impacts health both directly and indirectly, and is strongly mediated by environmental, social and public health determinants.



Although it is unequivocal that climate change affects human health, it remains challenging to accurately estimate the scale and impact of many climate-sensitive health risks. However, scientific advances progressively allow us to attribute an increase in morbidity and mortality to human-induced warming, and more accurately determine the risks and scale of these health threats.


In the short- to medium-term, the health impacts of climate change will be determined mainly by the vulnerability of populations, their resilience to the current rate of climate change and the extent and pace of adaptation. In the longer-term, the effects will increasingly depend on the extent to which transformational action is taken now to reduce emissions and avoid the breaching of dangerous temperature thresholds and potential irreversible tipping points.



NatureClimate change is making hundreds of diseases much worse, excerpt, 12 August 2022:


Climate change has exacerbated more than 200 infectious diseases and dozens of non-transmissible conditions, such as poisonous-snake bites, according to an analysis. Climate hazards bring people and disease-causing organisms closer together, leading to a rise in cases. Global warming can also make some conditions more severe and affect how well people fight off infections.


Most studies on the associations between climate change and disease have focused on specific pathogens, transmission methods or the effects of one type of extreme weather. Camilo Mora, a data scientist at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, and his colleagues scoured the literature for evidence of how ten climate-change-induced hazards — including surging temperatures, sea level rise and droughts — have affected all documented infectious diseases (see ‘Climate hazards exacerbate diseases’). These include infections spread or triggered by bacteria, viruses, animals, fungi and plants (see ‘Mode of transmission’). The study was published in Nature Climate Change on 8 August.


The study quantifies the many ways in which climate change affects human diseases, says Mora. “We are going to be under the constant umbrella of this serious threat for the rest of our lives,” he adds.


Literature review


Mora and his colleagues examined more than 77,000 research papers, reports and books for records of infectious diseases influenced by climatic hazards that had been made worse by greenhouse-gas emissions. More than 90% of the relevant papers had been published after 2000. Ultimately, the team found 830 publications containing 3,213 case examples.


The researchers discovered that climate change has aggravated 218, or 58%, of the 375 infectious diseases listed in the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON), and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. The total rises to 277 when including non-transmissible conditions, such as asthma and poisonous-snake or insect bites. The team also identified nine diseases that are diminished by climate change. [my yellow highlighting]


Research paper "Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change" (Mora, C. et al, August 2022) can be accessed at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1



On the subject of COVID-19…..


World Health Organisation, Zoonoses, excerpt, 29July 2020:


A zoonosis is an infectious disease that has jumped from a non-human animal to humans. Zoonotic pathogens may be bacterial, viral or parasitic, or may involve unconventional agents and can spread to humans through direct contact or through food, water or the environment. They represent a major public health problem around the world due to our close relationship with animals in agriculture, as companions and in the natural environment. Zoonoses can also cause disruptions in the production and trade of animal products for food and other uses.


Zoonoses comprise a large percentage of all newly identified infectious diseases as well as many existing ones. Some diseases, such as HIV, begin as a zoonosis but later mutate into human-only strains. Other zoonoses can cause recurring disease outbreaks, such as Ebola virus disease and salmonellosis. Still others, such as the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, have the potential to cause global pandemics. [my yellow highlighting]


North Coast Voices readers may have noticed that "zoonoses" are mentioned in "Climate-sensitive health risks" and that zoonoses, as one of the nine categories listed  as such health risks in the graphic insert, are considered to be strongly mediated by environmental, social and public health determinants.


It may be that a potential exists for the SARS-CoV-2 virus to alter its nature in unexpected ways as the climate continues to change. If Australia's response to the virus remains almost entirely politically driven as it has been since the second half of 2021 and does not return swiftly to a predominately science based policy and public health implementation, then any increase in virulence will likely markedly weaken the nation's social and economic bonds. Alternatively, if a new highly infectious zoonosis with significant morbidity emerges and, because our governments and their health agencies have not leant the lessons of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the nation will not be anymore prepared than it was in January 2020.


Thursday 30 June 2022

A reminder of just how long the global political class have been fully aware of the "Possibility of Catastrophic Climate Change"

 

Memorandum to United States of America President James "Jimmy" Carter, dated 7 July 1977


FROM: US OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY.

SUBJECT: Release of Fossil co2 and the Possibility of a Catastrophic Climate Change 

Memorandum to United States... by clarencegirl

 

How the US National Academy of Sciences saw author of this memo, Frank Press:


Frank Press [4 December 1924 – 29 January 2020] served as the 19th president of the National Academy of Sciences from July 1, 1981 to June 30, 1993. As NAS president, Press also led a reorganization of the Academy’s operating arm, the National Research Council. He believed that the landmark 1986 report, Confronting AIDS — which warned that the toll of the AIDS epidemic would become far worse and urged a massive national response — was the most significant report issued while he was president. In fact, he told the Research Council’s governing body that the report, “may well rank among our most important contributions to the public welfare.” A report examining the cause of the 1986 space shuttle Challenger explosion was another key report issued during his tenure.


From 1977 to 1981, Press was national science adviser to President Jimmy Carter and the second director of the recently formed White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. In this role, Press was key in establishing a science and technology exchange agreement between the U.S. and China, which enabled thousands of Chinese students to study in the U.S. — many of whom went on to become U.S. citizens. He also focused on “increasing government commitment to basic research, evaluating the impact of federal regulations on the economy, and providing analyses of a national energy policy,” according to documents at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum. In addition, Press was on the presidential science advisory committees during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, and served on the National Science Board under President Richard Nixon.


Press was among the first generation of geophysicists who benefited from and contributed to revolutionary developments associated with the evolution of the field of plate tectonics, and he quickly became a leader in this area of research. He received the National Medal of Science in 1994 “for his contributions to the understanding of the deepest interior of the earth and the mitigation of natural disasters.” He was the recipient of many other awards and honors, including the gold medal of the Royal Astronomical Society, the Japan Prize, and the Vannevar Bush Award.


Prior to his positions in Washington, D.C., Press was professor of geophysics and chair of the department of earth and planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1965 to 1977. He had also held academic appointments at Columbia University and the California Institute of Technology, and was the chair of the U.S. delegation to the 1960 Nuclear Test Ban Conference in Geneva. Press received his undergraduate degree in physics from the City College of New York in 1944 in his Ph.D. in geophysics from Columbia University in 1946.


Upon completing his service as NAS president at age 69, Press accepted a four-year appointment as the Cecil and Ida Green Research fellow at the Carnegie Institution in Washington, and remained active as an adviser to several organizations — both public and private — for many years.


Sunday 1 May 2022

A reminder that climate change and pandemic risk are here to stay


"As climate change reshapes life on earth, it may also become the single biggest upstream driver of pandemic risk." [Colin J. Carlson PhD, Georgetown University, Centre for Global Health Science & Security, 28 April 2022]


IMAGE: Colin J. Carlson, @wormmaps
Click on map to enlarge

















nature, 28 April 2022:


Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk


Colin J. Carlson, Gregory F. Albery, Cory Merow, Christopher H. Trisos, Casey M. Zipfel, Evan A. Eskew, Kevin J. Olival, Noam Ross & Shweta Bansal


Abstract

At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.


Monday 29 November 2021

CSIRO study found forest fires linked to climate change: 9 out of the 11 fire years, each with more than 500,000 km2 burned, occurred since 2000.


And the bad news for rural and regional Australia just keeps on coming.....


Lead author and CSIRO chief climate research scientist Pep Canadell said the study established the correlation between the Forest Fire Danger Index – which measures weather-related vegetation dryness, air temperature, wind speed and humidity – and the rise in area of forest burned since the 1930s.

It’s so tight, it’s so strong that clearly when we have these big fire events, they’re run by the climate and the weather,” Dr Canadell said…

Almost regardless of what we do the overall extent of the fire, really, is dictated by those climate conditions,” he said.

Climate scientists have found climate change is exacerbating the key fire risk factors identified by CSIRO’s study, with south-eastern Australia becoming hotter, drier and, in a particularly worrying trend, more prone to high wind on extremely hot and dry summer days.

The weather system that drove a blast furnace’s worth of westerly wind across NSW and Victoria’s forests, sparking some of the worst fires of the Black Summer in 2019-20, will be up to four times more likely to occur under forecast levels of global warming.’ [The Sydney Morning Herald, 26 November 2021]


Nature.com, Nature Communications, 26 November 2021, article excerpt:


Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change”

Josep G. Canadell, C. P. (Mick) Meyer, Garry D. Cook, Andrew Dowdy, Peter R. Briggs, Jürgen Knauer, Acacia Pepler & Vanessa Haverd

Received 24 July 2020

Accepted 03 November 2021

Published 26 November 2021

Download PDF


ABSTRACT

Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change.


INTRODUCTION


The extraordinary forest fires in Australia in 2019 and 20201 have brought further interest in detecting changes in fire activity, the possible role of anthropogenic climate change and their likely future trends both in Australia and globally 2,3,4,5,6.


Terrestrial ecosystems in Australia are among the most fire prone in the world, with fire regimes varying widely 7,8. Fire activity is dominated by savanna and rangeland fires in the northern and western parts of the continent characterized by fire return intervals of less than 5 years 7,9. Forests in the east and south have fire return times of decades to more than a century, with subtropical and tropical forests in the northeast burning rarely or not at all 9. Fire, including cultural burns by indigenous people, has shaped the function and structure of most Australian ecosystems for millennia 10,11.


Against this background of fire activity, Australia’s mean temperature has increased by 1.4 °C since 1910 with a rapid increase in extreme heat events, while rainfall has declined in the southern and eastern regions of the continent, particularly during the cool half of the year 12,13,14. These changes can affect the four components that must simultaneously come together for fire to occur: biomass production, its availability to burn (fuel loads), fire weather, and ignition 7, making Australian forests vulnerable and sensitive to changes in fire activity.


Previous studies showed increased fire danger due to changes in weather conditions over past decades in Australia 5,15,16, climate change fingerprinting to individual fire events and trends 17,18,19, and predicted increases in fire danger under future climate change due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases 2,20,21. Although these studies indicate more dangerous weather conditions for wildfires in a warmer world, studies also suggest that trends due to climate change might not be clearly detectable until later in the coming decades owing to the high natural variability and extremes of the Australian climate 4,22,23,24.


Fuel loads and trends, as effected by climate, human activity and time since the last disturbance, also play a role in determining fire risk 25,26. This link is a central motivation for using prescribed burning to reduce fuel availability 27, which in Australia is managed through changes in the frequency of prescribed burns 28. Although there is some debate on their value to reduce fire risk 29, particularly during extreme fire weather conditions 2,30, fuel loads and their distribution and structure are key determinants of fire spread, intensity and severity 7.


Here we analyze trends of the burned area in forest ecosystems in Australia, which are dominated by temperate forests extending over the southern and eastern regions of the continent. We use a high-resolution (1.1 km x 1.1 km) burned area satellite record available based on NOAA-AVHRR (32 years), the NASA-MODIS burned area at 500 m resolution (19 years), and the fire histories from State and Territory government agencies (90 years). In addition, we analyze trends of nine wildfire risk factors and indices that relate to characteristics of fuel loads, fire weather, extreme fire behaviour, and ignition, which together with the burned area enable us to infer the causal influence of climate change on fire activity.


RESULTS


Trends in area burned


At a continental scale, total annual burned area (fire year defined as July to June to include the Austral summer of December to February) using the NOAA-AVHRR dataset (“Methods”: Burned area data), significantly increased over the past 32 years albeit with large interannual variability (Fig. 1a; Linear fit, p value = 0.04, Supplementary Table 1). The high variability is in part driven by large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annual Mode 31,32 that influence fire weather conditions 16,22. Nine out of the 11 fire years, each with more than 500,000 km2 (>50 Mha) burned, occurred since 2000.


Forest ecosystems also show increased burned area over time (Fig. 1b, linear fit, p value = 0.02, Supplementary Table 1; Fig. 2). The increasing trend is statistically significant with and without the 2019 fire year, indicating a robust increasing trend even before the extraordinary large burned area of that year (Supplementary Table 1). Forests in Australia experienced an annual average increase of 350% in burned area between the first (1988-2001) and second (2002-2018) half of the record, and an increase of 800% when including 2019. The 2019 fire year burned about three times (60,345 km2) the area of any previous year in the 32-year AVHRR-Landgate record (Fig. 3, Supplementary Fig. 1, “Methods”: Burned area). The burned area of the 2019 fire year was estimated at 71,772 km2 based on State and Territory agencies (NIAFED) and 54,852 km2 based on NASA-MODIS, with an average for the three products of 62,323 ± 8,631. Ten out of eleven fire years with at least 5000 km2 (>0.5 Mha) burned have occurred since 2001. These trends are broadly consistent across the three burned area products (Supplementary Fig. 1).


Fig. 2: Monthly burned forest area for fire years (July to June).