*****Season's Greetings for 2024 from***** ************North Coast Voices************

 

Best wishes for the festive season to our readers from

North Coast Voices

North Coast Voices will be on holiday until New Year's Day 2025

Animated from Google Images

With our families, friends & holidaymakers out on local rivers & coastal waters this summer perhaps a timely reminder is due concerning the danger of drowning

 

Lennox Head
IMAGE: Amy Fallon
The Guardian, 21.01.20
 

In the twelve months between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 there were 323 drownings across Australia.

Last summer, 134 lives were lost, averaging at least one drowning per day. Older adults were particularly at risk, being 39% of all deaths, 27% of victims were people born overseas and 10% were children aged 0-14 years. A total of 82% of drownings were male.

Many drowning incidents occurred at unpatrolled or isolated locations, including beaches, rivers, lakes and dams.

All states and territories reported an increase in drowning compared to last summer, except for South Australia and the Northern Territory. [See:https://www.royallifesaving.com.au/research-and-policy/drowning-research/summer-drowning-toll]

ABC News, 22 December 2024:

More people have drowned across Australia in the first three weeks of summer this year than during the same period in 2023, with the current death rate 120 per cent higher than the five-year average, according to Royal Life Saving Australia data.

Australia's leading drowning prevention body has reported 18 drowning deaths since December 1, including six in New South Wales and five in Queensland.

In the first three weeks of December last year, 14 people died drowning in waterways across the country. The five-year average number of deaths since 2019 for the same period is 15 fatalities.....

Justin Scarr, the Royal Life Saving Australia CEO, told ABC News that the end-of-year holiday period and consecutive days of good weather across the country have contributed to the higher fatal drowning numbers....

"The weather has been great and many people are flocking to a range of waterways, including beaches and lakes," he said.

"We're urging people to plan. Preparation is key.

"When you arrive at a holiday location, it is the first couple of days where you are unfamiliar with the location, you don't know where the patrolled areas with lifeguards are, you don't know the time for the lifeguards and potentially you don't know necessarily the swimming ability of the people you are holidaying with.

"We urge them to make smart choices about where they are going picnicking, know the local conditions and if people can't swim, don't go near the water at all."....

Royal Life Saving Australia water safety guidelines at

https://www.royallifesaving.com.au/about/campaigns-and-programs/Water-Safety

Customer violence towards Woolworths & Coles frontline staff reported to be increasing. This festive season let's all be polite and tolerant to everyone on both sides of the store counter.

 

Woolworths Group, Coles Group, ALDI, and Metcash (IGA) the largest supermarket chains, along with Spar and a number of smaller grocery/convenience stores, have outlets across the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales.

However, it would be fair to observe that the market dominance of Woolworths and Coles raises their profiles in regional districts.

So that during first the panic buying shortages of the COVID-19 global pandemic years and, the prolonged cost-of-living pressures which followed on from those years, due to weaker than expected economic growth in major economies, global supply constraints exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inflation and rising costs, it was Woolworths and Coles reputations which began to noticeably tarnish.

Due in part to some of the positions they took when managing stock distribution during the earlier stages of the pandemic. However, it was the growing unease from 2020-2021 onwards concerning the cost of basic grocery items which saw community sentiment finally brand them as 'price gougers' and, the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) in September this year announced it had "commenced separate proceedings in the Federal Court against Woolworths Group Limited (Woolworths) (ASX: WOW) and Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd (Coles) (a subsidiary of Coles Group Limited - ASX: COL) for allegedly breaching the Australian Consumer Law by misleading consumers through discount pricing claims on hundreds of common supermarket products".

None of these things excuse in any way the recent reports of an increase in violence towards supermarket staff, but it would be foolhardy of both Woolworths and Coles not to give thought to the part their corporate behaviours may have played in increasing the level of physical risk their staff potentially face in the workplace.

DailyTelegraph, 20 December 2024:

Woolworths has launched a violence prevention team to combat rising staff abuse while Coles is fitting some workers with personal security devices to protect them at work.

The supermarket giants are grappling with soaring rates of customer aggression and violence towards workers along with frontline workers at retail stores, hospitality businesses and shopping centres.

Woolworths has recorded more than 2100 incidents of violence and abuse since July this year across supermarkets, metro stores and Big W outlets, equating to nearly 500 incidents a month.

The supermarket has established a dedicated counter violence taskforce that has equipped staff members with tools to combat potentially dangerous scenarios. In the ACT, Woolworths has also successfully sought Workplace Protection Orders that prohibit repeat offenders from entering shops and harassing staff.

Woolworths is also using online module that train workers by screening videos of dangerous scenarios and teaching them the correct response to potential customer aggression and conflict......

Coles has started training staff to diffuse situations and regularly reports incidence of violence to police.

“The safety of our team members and customers is paramount, and we have a range of measures and processes in place to support our team,” said the spokesperson.

“Some of these include providing our team members with equipment such as personal security devices like duress devices and specialised training for our team members to help de-escalate situations.”

Scentre Group, which owns Westfield, has been running emergency response training and armed offender drills at stores with NSW Police, Queensland Police Service, the Australian Defence Force, South Australia Police, and the Australian Federal Police.

“We take our duty of care, and safety, extremely seriously,” said a spokesperson.

“Our security approach is created in partnership with law enforcement authorities, including Police and relevant government agencies.”.....

DailyTelegraph, 14 December 2024:

... Almost 100 people have been charged with offences against retail workers as authorities crackdown on unruly behaviour in shopping centres and supermarkets.

The charges occurred from June last year when the Minns government toughened laws protecting shop staff in ­response to a rise in violence.

Of those charged, 44 were convicted and 13 jailed.... 

The Sydney Morning Herald, 21 February 2024:

A Coles employee is fighting for life after being allegedly assaulted by a customer.....

The Australian femicide count reaches an appalling number in 2024 - averaging one woman violently killed every four days

 

This year 2024 marked 50 years since the creation of Australia's first women's refuge Elsie in Glebe, Sydney, for those fleeing domestic violence and 50 years since the establishment of the Sydney Rape Crisis Collective in Redfern, Sydney.

It is 29 years since a female counsellor was gaoled for protecting the privacy of her rape victim client by refusing a subpoena by the accused rapist for the counselling notes petaining to his victim.

It is 10 years since Destroy the Joint started the online Counting Dead Women recording the monthly toll of women who died violently at the hands of partners, family members, acquaintances or strangers.

It is also 9 years since this campaign commenced....

Death toll based on media reports as of 18 December 2024

The RED HEART Campaign’s Memorial to Women and Children Lost to Violence is an ongoing journalism-based story-driven project tracking every known Australian woman and child killed as a result of murder, manslaughter or neglect from White Settlement to now. Simply tap a heart to read each victim’s story. To add a loved one, change an entry or request more information, email admin@theREDHEARTcampaign.org

NOTE: The Red Heart campaign includes in its count Australian women who died violently while outside the country.

Tweed Shire local government the subject of more corruption allegations?

The Northern Star-Daily Telegraph, 19 December 2024:

Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) probe launched into Tweed Shire Council

A corruption probe has been launched into Tweed Shire Council, it can be revealed.

Multiple sources have told this publication an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation was recently launched into allegations surrounding council processes.

One source stated that the corruption probe was “common knowledge” in council and that “they have been trying to keep a lid on it”.

Another source said ICAC officers had recently raided council offices to conduct searches and obtain information, and that a number of staff had reportedly been suspended.

When asked about the probe, Tweed Shire Council Mayor Chris Cherry said she was “unsure” whether the investigation was “active” and that “it was likely to come out (in the media) sooner or later”. She then referred enquiries to general manager Troy Green.

In response to questions, a council spokesperson said: “All investigations are a matter for the Commission.”

“Where there is an active and ongoing investigation, it is not appropriate for council to give any response,” the spokesperson said.

“All enquiries should be directed to the ICAC. No further statements will be made about this matter by the council.”

An ICAC spokesperson said it would not “confirm or deny if it is undertaking investigations”.

In 2005, the state government sacked the Tweed Shire Council after allegations of corruption were aired to ICAC before handing responsibilities over to three administrators.

The probe came after an independent report by Commissioner Maurice Daly, who examined how Tweed councillors were elected, finding them to be influenced by a developer-led group called Tweed Directions.

The report claimed candidates who presented as independents were backed by developers who were responsible for a property boom on the Queensland-NSW border.

At the time, Local Government Minister Tony Kelly said the move had “distorted the community’s understanding of their real status and purpose” and council had “effectively lied to the community.”

The current probe has no links to the matters in 2005.

In September 2022 Tweed Shire Council published its Fraud and Corruption Control Policy Version 2.0 which reads in part:

Fraud refers to dishonestly obtaining a benefit, or causing a loss, by deception or other means. Corruption, in broad terms, is deliberate, a serious wrongdoing that involves dishonest or partial conduct, a breach of public trust or the misuse of information or material.....

This Policy affirms Tweed Shire Council’s commitment to supporting an integrity fraud and corruption control framework, communicates our intention and direction to fraud and corruption control and shows clear accountability structures.

Australian Budget MYEFO 2024-25: you've read the media headlines - now read the actual document

 

From the very first Albanese Labor Government budget the national electorate was cautioned that the newly minted annual budget surplus would not last if adverse global and domestic conditions continued.

Three years later MYEFO 2024-25 merely confirms that a deficit has returned for a projected period of four years, falling back to 1 per cent of GDP by the fourth year 2027-28.

A brief look at the projected economic and fiscal outlook.....

AUSTRALIAN BUDGET 2024-25, MID-YEAR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK 2024–25 Updated economic and fiscal outlook (MYEO), excerpt, 18 December 2021:

Updated economic and fiscal outlook 

The impact of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and global economic uncertainty has weighed on the Australian economy more than anticipated. Despite these difficult circumstances, the Australian economy has outperformed many advanced economies and is on track for a soft landing. The economy has continued to grow and inflation has moderated substantially. In the labour market, more than a million jobs have been created since May 2022, the participation rate is near record highs, real wages and household incomes are growing again, and the gender pay gap is the narrowest it has ever been. Business investment is at its highest level since the early 2010s.

Economic growth in Australia is expected to increase from 1.4 per cent in 2023–24 to 1¾ per cent in 2024–25, and then to 2¼ per cent in 2025–26. The pick-up in growth is expected to be supported by a gradual recovery in household consumption. The Government’s cost-of-living tax cuts, together with the anticipated easing in inflationary pressures and continuing employment and wage growth are expected to drive growth in real household disposable incomes in 2024–25. 

Inflation has moderated substantially in the Australian economy across both headline and underlying measures. Inflation returned to the RBA’s target band for the first time since 2021 in the September quarter 2024. This was supported by the Government’s cost-of-living relief in the 2024–25 Budget, which is expected to directly reduce annual inflation by ½ of a percentage point in 2024–25.

Underlying inflation fell by 0.5 percentage points in the September quarter to its lowest level in almost three years. The easing of underlying inflation has largely been driven by the normalisation of goods price inflation. Services inflation has also moderated from its peak. Inflation is expected to sustainably return to the RBA’s target band around the end of 2025.

Over a million jobs have been created in the Australian economy since the middle of 2022. Most of these gains in employment are expected to be preserved, with employment growth expected to remain positive but moderate over time. Labour force participation is forecast to remain near its peak. The unemployment rate is low by historical standards and is expected to remain comparatively low over the forecast period, rising modestly to 4½ per cent by June 2025.

Nominal wage growth has eased but is expected to remain above its 10-year pre-pandemic average of 2.7 per cent. Real wages are expected to grow over the forecast period due to a combination of solid wage growth and moderating inflation.

Investment will support growth in the economy in the period ahead, with business investment forecast to remain at around decade highs and dwelling investment expected to pick up.

While growth in public demand remains below its five-year pre-pandemic average, it has played an important role in ensuring the Australian economy remains on track for a soft landing. Without the contribution of public demand in the September quarter, growth in the economy would have been much weaker. State and local government spending was the major driver in public final demand. 

After recording the first back-to-back surpluses in almost two decades and the largest nominal back-to-back surpluses on record, a deficit of $26.9 billion is forecast for 2024–25. This is $20 billion better than the deficit forecast at the PEFO and an improvement on the 2024–25 Budget.

This MYEFO shows an improvement in the underlying cash balance by around $200 billion over the six years to 2027–28, relative to the PEFO. Gross debt is significantly lower, expected to stabilise at 36.7 per cent of GDP, 8.2 percentage points lower than the peak at the PEFO. As a share of the economy gross debt is lower in every year relative to the PEFO. .... 

The full 2024-25 MYEFO can be read and downloaded at https://budget.gov.au/content/myefo/download/myefo2024-25.pdf

Richmond Valley Council decision at odds with community expectations concerning use of Stan Payne Oval

ECHO, 17 December 2024: 

Evans Heads locals have raised concerns over the advertised rodeo ‘Buckin by the Beach’ scheduled for 28 December in Evans Head.

Originally advertised for Paddon Memorial Park next to the Evans River, residents said that the first they knew of it was from an ad offering ticket sales to the event. It has now apparently been moved to Stan Payne Oval. Though it is still being advertised online as at Paddon Park.

‘It is not clear from publicly-available information whether this rodeo has been approved by Richmond Valley Council (RVC) as nothing can be found on the RVC website at time of writing about the event except that a similar event was held in 2023 at the Stan Payne Oval at Evans Head,’ said a spokesperson for Evans Head Residents for Sustainable Development (EHRSDI).

According to one local the RVC the council overrode the Stan Payne Oval Committee to bring the event back to the property under their control leaving the community wondering ‘why bother having a management committee if the council can step in at the last moment and override their concerns without appropriate public consultation with those who will be most affected by the event’.

Inquiries made by EHRSDI reveal that those controlling the Stan Payne Oval area were not happy with the impact the previous event had on the condition of the playing fields and one resident, who contacted EHRSDI, said he had suffered a knee injury because of legacy uneven playing surfaces.

The Stan Payne Oval is subject to a Master Plan which was accepted by Council in June 2023 ( https://richmondvalley.nsw.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SPEH-01-Adopted-Masterplan-2023-.pdf)

‘EHRSDI understands that the committee did not and does not want the rodeo to be held on the Stan Payne Oval because of the effects on the oval’s physical integrity and risk of injury from the legacy effects of that use,’ said the EHRSDI spokesperson.

‘Master Plans are supposed to be about “protecting the local character, heritage and environment” of a site”. It is difficult to reconcile the imposition of an out-of-town, for-profit rodeo with “the core focus” of the site which is “improving the community’s enjoyment within public spaces”.’

Evans Head Residents for Sustainable Development said today it has fielded a number of calls from local residents about the proposed rodeo event covering a range of concerns from the impact the event will have on water quality of the Evans River to the timing of the event in the middle of the busy Christmas period at Evans Head when riverfront usage is at a premium and the space will be lost to the public. Parking and noise problems were also raised.

‘The wider community is also opposed to the event being held at Evans Head because the community is already at capacity from the summer holidays and does not need yet another burden on local infrastructure.’

Animal welfare

Animal welfare issues have also been raised as a concern in relation to the rodeo.

According to research gathered by Dr Anne Gates, ‘Rodeos are a cruel spectator sport, condemned by all animal protection organisations, in which bulls, horses and sometimes other animals are physically provoked into displaying “wild” behaviour by the use of such devices as spurs, electric prods and flank straps. Animals suffer many kinds of injuries and are sometimes killed as a result......

RVC, National Rodeo Association, and the Stan Payne Oval committee have been contacted for comment.

Evans Heads locals have raised concerns over the advertised rodeo ‘Buckin by the Beach’ scheduled for 28 December in Evans Head.

Originally advertised for Paddon Memorial Park next to the Evans River, residents said that the first they knew of it was from an ad offering ticket sales to the event. It has now apparently been moved to Stan Payne Oval. Though it is still being advertised online as at Paddon Park.

‘It is not clear from publicly-available information whether this rodeo has been approved by Richmond Valley Council (RVC) as nothing can be found on the RVC website at time of writing about the event except that a similar event was held in 2023 at the Stan Payne Oval at Evans Head,’ said a spokesperson for Evans Head Residents for Sustainable Development (EHRSDI).

According to one local the RVC the council overrode the Stan Payne Oval Committee to bring the event back to the property under their control leaving the community wondering ‘why bother having a management committee if the council can step in at the last moment and override their concerns without appropriate public consultation with those who will be most affected by the event’.

Inquiries made by EHRSDI reveal that those controlling the Stan Payne Oval area were not happy with the impact the previous event had on the condition of the playing fields and one resident, who contacted EHRSDI, said he had suffered a knee injury because of legacy uneven playing surfaces.

The Stan Payne Oval is subject to a Master Plan which was accepted by Council in June 2023 ( https://richmondvalley.nsw.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/SPEH-01-Adopted-Masterplan-2023-.pdf)

‘EHRSDI understands that the committee did not and does not want the rodeo to be held on the Stan Payne Oval because of the effects on the oval’s physical integrity and risk of injury from the legacy effects of that use,’ said the EHRSDI spokesperson.

‘Master Plans are supposed to be about “protecting the local character, heritage and environment” of a site”. It is difficult to reconcile the imposition of an out-of-town, for-profit rodeo with “the core focus” of the site which is “improving the community’s enjoyment within public spaces”.’

Evans Head Residents for Sustainable Development said today it has fielded a number of calls from local residents about the proposed rodeo event covering a range of concerns from the impact the event will have on water quality of the Evans River to the timing of the event in the middle of the busy Christmas period at Evans Head when riverfront usage is at a premium and the space will be lost to the public. Parking and noise problems were also raised.

‘The wider community is also opposed to the event being held at Evans Head because the community is already at capacity from the summer holidays and does not need yet another burden on local infrastructure.’

Animal welfare

Animal welfare issues have also been raised as a concern in relation to the rodeo.

According to research gathered by Dr Anne Gates, ‘Rodeos are a cruel spectator sport, condemned by all animal protection organisations, in which bulls, horses and sometimes other animals are physically provoked into displaying “wild” behaviour by the use of such devices as spurs, electric prods and flank straps. Animals suffer many kinds of injuries and are sometimes killed as a result......

RVC, National Rodeo Association, and the Stan Payne Oval committee have been contacted for comment.

Comparing the Liberal-Nationals approach to nuclear energy policy with two opposing positions

Because in fourteen days time the country enters a national federal election year and, one likely to be dominated by misinformation and downright lies on the Internet, television, radio and in political flyers stuffed in letterboxes - especially on the subject of nuclear powered electricity - here are the basic positions of the three main parties distributing either political opinion or science-based information.

Perhaps consider bookmarking it for future reference as the election campaign heats up.

The latest Coalition Dutton-Littleproud position on its proposal to insert nuclear power as a preeminent component in Australia's energy mix began with this media release on 13 December....

Frontier Economics, INSIGHT, 13 December 2024:

Economic analysis of including nuclear power in the NEM

At Frontier Economics, we’ve been providing the economic analysis and frameworks to key energytransition decisions in Australia for more than 25 years. As independent economic consultants, we regularly inform ourselves on, and dig deep into, the most important decisions impacting society.

This is the second independent report in this series on modelling the economics of including nuclear in Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM).

The objective of the first report, Report1 – Developing the base case to assess the relative costs ofnuclear power in the NEM, was to establish a proper basis for comparing the cost impacts of nuclear power – based on AEMO’s Integrated Systems Plan (ISP) results.

Once again, we expect and welcome robust debate on the work we present. Our report has been funded and directed solely by Frontier Economics, and consultation with various government and private sector parties has been sought to ensure we modelled the inclusion of nuclear power in the NEM most accurately.

Report 2: Economic analysis of including nuclear power in the NEM

In this second report, we again using AEMO modelling as our basis for comparison, using their ‘Step Change’ and ‘Progressive’ scenarios to compare the costs of nuclear power in our energy ecosystem.

"You can’t compare renewable energy and nuclear power generation and costs like apples to apples. We’ve done the modelling in these AEMO scenarios with a wider, and more detailed, lens on how the two options compare in real life, and the data speaks for itself. In both scenarios, including nuclear power in our energy mix is cheaper – by up to 44% - for Australians in the medium-term future. - Danny Price, Managing Director, Frontier Economics"

Key considerations from the report:

• Many commentators simply and erroneously compare the cost of a renewable generator (wind or solar) plus the costs of back-up generation to the capacity and operating costs of a nuclear power station.

• Such crude assessments do not account for the fact that much more renewable capacity is required to produce the same amount of electricity compared to a nuclear power station.

• Nor does it account for the requirement to store surplus electricity from renewable sources as well as the back-up generation. An enormous amount of investment required to connect renewable generators located in areas where there is presently no or inadequate transmission network capacity.

• Many other calculations are ignoring transmission costs entirely, which we have considered in this modelling.

Our modelling in this report has concluded:

• The AEMO’s Progressive scenario including nuclear power is 44% cheaper than the Step Change model without nuclear.

• Using a Step Change model with nuclear will garner a 25% cheaper solution than using renewable and storage alone.

• Highlighting that nuclear power in Australia’s energy system is cheaper in both scenarios.

DOWNLOAD REPORT 2

The Australian Government response begins thus....

Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen

Under the Opposition's nuclear scheme Australians will pay more to sit in the dark

13 December 2024

Peter Dutton has today confirmed his nuclear scheme will not bring down household bills and will instead leave Australians paying billions to sit in the dark.

Despite their bold claims that the most expensive form of energy will bring down bills, the Coalition’s dodgy costings released today are silent on tackling household bills. The report simply says on page 18: “they do not, at this stage, present any results for price.”

But experts have previously found that adding nuclear to Australia’s energy mix would push up power bills by up to $1,200 a year, while it risks blackouts as households wait 20 years for reactors to come online.

Aside from failing to offer anything to households on power bills, there are three immediate fatal flaws in the Coalition’s nuclear energy costings.

One, the Coalition are irresponsibly asserting that costs will be lower because Australians will use less power. They ignore the independent advice from the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Peter Dutton’s nuclear scheme isn’t a plan to meet our growing energy needs –it’s nothing more than a recipe for bringing our economic growth to a halt.

Two, the costs don’t reflect any real world experience. The Coalition’s modelling spuriously assumes nuclear will be supplied at $30Mwh. The CSIRO, which bases their work on the international experience, says that in order to pay off its costs, it needs a price of between $145-$238Mwh.

The Coalition is ignoring the massive cost blowouts and delays seen routinely around the world during the construction of nuclear reactors, including in countries where the industry is well established.

These costings are also silent on how much taxpayers will pay for it, and exactly what services Peter Dutton would cut to fund his nuclear scheme. Given his mega costs today are equivalent to more than 10 years of the Medicare budget Australians should be worried.

Three, the Coalition just takes a guess that there is no need to build transmission to get power into homes and businesses. They invent a $52 billion difference in transmission spend, but have no plan to transport nuclear energy to wherever it’s needed.

Nothing in today’s so-called “costings” addresses the need for energy bills coming down now or the near-universal evidence that nuclear would take too long, cost too much, and slow renewable investment and generation. This is not a plan to keep the lights on.

Australia needs new, cheap power now, not expensive power in 20 years. Ageing, expensive and unreliable coal plants are closing and we have to fill the gap. Dutton’s nuclear scheme would have us short on power for two decades – a sure-fire recipe for rolling and expensive blackouts.

Labor’s plan is delivering cheaper energy right now. Since coming to Government we have brought online new electricity that is the equivalent of more than 3 entire Snowy Hydro schemes.

Australia is on track to bring more renewable energy online this year than any other year, and bills are forecast to come down as more renewables come online over the next decade.

We are rolling out batteries that can store renewable energy around the country – providing enough power storage to cater for 90% of peak household demand to make sure night or day Australians have the power when and where they need it.

The considered scientific position.....

CSIRO, News, December 2024:

The question of nuclear in Australia’s electricity sector:

In Australia's transition to net zero emissions, the electricity sector has a major role to play. But does nuclear power have a place in our future grid?

9 December 2024

Key points

• Nuclear power does not currently provide the most cost competitive solution for low emission electricity in Australia.

• Long development lead times mean nuclear won’t be able to make a significant contribution to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

• While nuclear technologies have a long operational life, this factor provides no unique cost advantage over shorter-lived technologies.

This explainer was updated on 09 December 2024 to reflect costings included in the draft GenCost 2024-25 Report.

AEMO's Integrated Systems Plan

As Australia works towards emissions reduction targets in the transition to net zero, we know the electricity sector has a major role to play. We also know it makes sense to assess a full range of technologies: some new and emerging, some established and proven.

In this context some proponents want nuclear to be considered as an option for decarbonising the electricity sector.

Despite nuclear power being a component of electricity generation for 16 per cent of the world’s countries, it does not currently represent a timely or efficient solution for meeting Australia’s net zero target.

Here’s why:

• Nuclear is not economically competitive with solar PV and wind and the total development time in Australia for large or small-scale nuclear is at least 15 years.

• Small modular reactors (SMRs) are potentially faster to build but are commercially immature at present.

• The total development lead time needed for nuclear means it cannot play a major role in electricity sector emission abatement, which is more urgent than abatement in other sectors.

Understanding GenCost calculations

GenCost is a leading economic report by CSIRO in collaboration with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) to estimate the cost of building future electricity generation and storage, as well as hydrogen production in Australia.

It is a policy and technology neutral report and the annual process involves close collaboration with electricity industry experts. There are opportunities for stakeholders to provide pre-publication feedback, ensuring the accuracy of available evidence.

Paul Graham, our Chief Energy Economist and lead author of the report, said GenCost is an open and public process.

"The report's data is not just for AEMO planning and forecasting; it’s also used by government policymakers and electricity strategists who require a clear, simple metric to inform their decisions," Paul said.

"To facilitate a straightforward comparison across different technologies, the GenCost report conducts a levelised cost of electricity analysis. This method calculates a dollar cost per megawatt hour (MWh) over the economic life of the asset, incorporating initial capital expenses and any ongoing fuel, operation, and maintenance costs."

The draft GenCost 2024-25 Report released on 09 December 2024 found renewables continue to have the lowest cost range of any new build electricity generation technologies.

Infographic showing annual change in capital costs and levelised cost of electricity (LCOE).

One of the factors that impacts the high and low cost range is the capacity factor. The capacity factor is the percentage of time on average that the technology generates to its full capacity throughout the year. Costs are lowest if technologies. such as nuclear, can operate at full capacity for as long as possible so they have more generation revenue over which to recover their capital costs.

Nuclear technology is capable of high capacity factor operation but globally its capacity factor ranges from below 60% to above 90% with an average of 80%. Australia operates a similar steam turbine based technology in coal generation for which the average capacity factor over the last decade was 59% with a maximum of 89%.

The shape of the electricity load and competition from other sources is very different between countries and so our preference is to always use Australian data where it is available. Consequently, we apply the historical coal capacity factors when considering the potential future capacity factors of Australian nuclear generation.

Capital cost assumptions

While nuclear generation is well established globally, it has never been deployed in Australia.

Applying overseas costs to large-scale nuclear projects in Australia is not straightforward due to significant variations in labour costs, workforce expertise, governance and standards. As a result, the source country for large-scale nuclear data must be carefully selected.

GenCost estimates of the cost large-scale nuclear are based on South Korea’s successful continuous nuclear building program and adjusted for differences in Australian and South Korean deployment costs by investigating the ratio of new coal generation costs in each country.

The large-scale nuclear costs it reported could only be achieved if Australia commits to a continuous building program, following the construction of an initial higher-cost unit or units. Initial units of all first-of-a-kind technologies in Australia are expected to be impacted by higher costs. A first-of-a-kind cost premium of up to 100 per cent cannot be ruled out. These assumptions remain for the draft GenCost 2024-25 Report.

Life of the investment

GenCost recognises the difference between the period over which the capital cost is recovered (the economic life) and operational life of an asset.

GenCost assumes a 30-year economic life for large-scale nuclear plants, even though they can operate for a longer period. It is standard practice in private financing that the capital recovery period for an asset is less than its full operational life, similar to a car or house loan. For power stations, warranties expire and refurbishment costs may begin to fall around the 30-year mark. As a result, we use a 30-year lifespan in our cost calculations.

After the final GenCost 23-24 Report was released in May 2024, nuclear proponents clarified they will seek to achieve longer capital recovery periods, closer to the operational life, by using public financing to realise potential cost advantages.

The draft GenCost 2024-25 Report has calculated those cost advantages for the first time (using a 60-year period), finding that there are no unique cost advantages arising from nuclear technology’s long operational life. Similar cost savings are achievable from shorter-lived technologies, even accounting for the fact that shorter lived technologies need to be built twice. This is because shorter-lived technologies such as solar PV and wind are typically available at a lower cost over time, making the second build less costly.

The lack of an economic advantage for long-lived nuclear is due to substantial nuclear refurbishment costs to achieve long operational life safely. Without new investment it cannot achieve long operational life. Also, because of the long lead time in nuclear deployment, cost reductions in the second half of their operational life are not available until around 45 years into the future, significantly reducing their value to consumers compared to other options.

Current figures for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

The Carbon Free Power Project was a nuclear SMR project in the United States established in 2015 and planned for full operation by 2030. It was the first project to receive design certification from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, an essential step before construction can commence. In November 2023, the project was cancelled following a 56 per cent increase in reported costs.

Despite being cancelled, this project was the first and currently remains the only project to have provided cost estimates for a real commercial venture with detailed data. Until now, most sources were for theoretical projects only.

"The main area of uncertainty with nuclear SMR has been around capital costs," Paul said.

"The Carbon Free Power Project provided more confidence about the capital costs of nuclear SMR and the data confirms it is currently a very high-cost technology."

"We don’t disagree with the principle of SMRs. They attempt to speed up the building process of nuclear plants using standardised components in a modular system and may achieve cost reductions over time. However, the lack of commercial deployment has meant that these potential savings are not yet verified or realised," Paul said.

Time is running out for the energy transition

Nuclear power has an empty development pipeline in Australia. Given the state and federal legal restrictions, this is not surprising.

But even if nuclear power was more economically feasible, its slow construction and its additional pre-construction steps, particularly around safety and security, limit its potential to play a serious role in reducing emissions within the required timeframe.

In the last five years, the global median construction time for nuclear has been 8.2 years. Furthermore, in the last ten years, no country with a similar level of democracy to Australia have been able to complete construction in less than 10 years. Overall, it will take at least 15 years before first nuclear generation could be achieved in Australia.

"The electricity sector is one of our largest sources of emissions and delaying the transition will make the cost of addressing climate change higher for all Australians," Paul said.

"The electricity sector must rapidly lead the transition to net zero, so other sectors like transport, building and manufacturing can adopt electrification and cut their emissions."

The final GenCost 2024-25 report will be released in the second quarter of 2025, after the close of final consultations on 11 February 2025. The Draft GenCost 2024-25 can be found at

https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/GenCost