Australian Budget MYEFO 2024-25: you've read the media headlines - now read the actual document

 

From the very first Albanese Labor Government budget the national electorate was cautioned that the newly minted annual budget surplus would not last if adverse global and domestic conditions continued.

Three years later MYEFO 2024-25 merely confirms that a deficit has returned for a projected period of four years, falling back to 1 per cent of GDP by the fourth year 2027-28.

A brief look at the projected economic and fiscal outlook.....

AUSTRALIAN BUDGET 2024-25, MID-YEAR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK 2024–25 Updated economic and fiscal outlook (MYEO), excerpt, 18 December 2021:

Updated economic and fiscal outlook 

The impact of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and global economic uncertainty has weighed on the Australian economy more than anticipated. Despite these difficult circumstances, the Australian economy has outperformed many advanced economies and is on track for a soft landing. The economy has continued to grow and inflation has moderated substantially. In the labour market, more than a million jobs have been created since May 2022, the participation rate is near record highs, real wages and household incomes are growing again, and the gender pay gap is the narrowest it has ever been. Business investment is at its highest level since the early 2010s.

Economic growth in Australia is expected to increase from 1.4 per cent in 2023–24 to 1¾ per cent in 2024–25, and then to 2¼ per cent in 2025–26. The pick-up in growth is expected to be supported by a gradual recovery in household consumption. The Government’s cost-of-living tax cuts, together with the anticipated easing in inflationary pressures and continuing employment and wage growth are expected to drive growth in real household disposable incomes in 2024–25. 

Inflation has moderated substantially in the Australian economy across both headline and underlying measures. Inflation returned to the RBA’s target band for the first time since 2021 in the September quarter 2024. This was supported by the Government’s cost-of-living relief in the 2024–25 Budget, which is expected to directly reduce annual inflation by ½ of a percentage point in 2024–25.

Underlying inflation fell by 0.5 percentage points in the September quarter to its lowest level in almost three years. The easing of underlying inflation has largely been driven by the normalisation of goods price inflation. Services inflation has also moderated from its peak. Inflation is expected to sustainably return to the RBA’s target band around the end of 2025.

Over a million jobs have been created in the Australian economy since the middle of 2022. Most of these gains in employment are expected to be preserved, with employment growth expected to remain positive but moderate over time. Labour force participation is forecast to remain near its peak. The unemployment rate is low by historical standards and is expected to remain comparatively low over the forecast period, rising modestly to 4½ per cent by June 2025.

Nominal wage growth has eased but is expected to remain above its 10-year pre-pandemic average of 2.7 per cent. Real wages are expected to grow over the forecast period due to a combination of solid wage growth and moderating inflation.

Investment will support growth in the economy in the period ahead, with business investment forecast to remain at around decade highs and dwelling investment expected to pick up.

While growth in public demand remains below its five-year pre-pandemic average, it has played an important role in ensuring the Australian economy remains on track for a soft landing. Without the contribution of public demand in the September quarter, growth in the economy would have been much weaker. State and local government spending was the major driver in public final demand. 

After recording the first back-to-back surpluses in almost two decades and the largest nominal back-to-back surpluses on record, a deficit of $26.9 billion is forecast for 2024–25. This is $20 billion better than the deficit forecast at the PEFO and an improvement on the 2024–25 Budget.

This MYEFO shows an improvement in the underlying cash balance by around $200 billion over the six years to 2027–28, relative to the PEFO. Gross debt is significantly lower, expected to stabilise at 36.7 per cent of GDP, 8.2 percentage points lower than the peak at the PEFO. As a share of the economy gross debt is lower in every year relative to the PEFO. .... 

The full 2024-25 MYEFO can be read and downloaded at https://budget.gov.au/content/myefo/download/myefo2024-25.pdf

The Independent COVID-17 Response Inquiry Final Report will be given to the Albanese Government by the end of September 2024 - with only about 15 Lower House sitting days left between 1 October and the day the parliamentary year ends - when will the report be tabled?

 

On 21 September 2023, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the Commonwealth Government COVID-19 Response Inquiry which had the stated purpose "to identify lessons learned to improve Australia’s preparedness for future pandemics".

The independent panel members heading this inquiry are Robyn Kruk AO (Chair), Professor Catherine Bennett (Member) and Dr Angela Jackson (Member).

The list of authors of the 2,092 submissions received by COVID-19 Response Inquiry from 6 November to 15 December 2023 and, those who gave permission for publication, can be read at:

https://www.pmc.gov.au/covid-19-response-inquiry/consultation/submissions.

COVID-17 Response Inquiry's published summaries can be found at:

https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources?f%5B0%5D=area_program_initiative%3A46&f%5B1%5D=area_program_initiative%3A75&f%5B2%5D=area_program_initiative%3A90&f%5B3%5D=area_program_initiative%3A683&f%5B4%5D=area_program_initiative%3A703&f%5B5%5D=area_program_initiative%3A707

The Independent Panel will deliver the COVID-17 Response Inquiry Final Report to Government, including recommendations to the Commonwealth Government to improve Australia’s preparedness for future pandemics, by the end of September 2024.

The following excerpt from a media article is the latest journalistic opinion on Inquiry evidence to date, in what has been a rather low profile inquiry.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 27 July 2024:

COVID-19 has left Australians with poorer physical and mental health, helped fuel inflation because of too many government handouts and encouraged people into the black economy, the first wide-ranging inquiry into the pandemic has heard.

Businesses, unions, health experts and the education sector have told the inquiry, due to report in weeks, that Australia needs to prepare for future pandemics to avoid repeating mistakes made across all levels of government that are still being felt in some parts of the nation.

The inquiry, promised by Anthony Albanese ahead of the 2022 federal election, is being headed by former senior public servant Robyn Kruk plus economist Angela Jackson and infectious diseases expert Professor Catherine Bennett.

Established last year, the 12-month inquiry is due to report by September. It has been given a wide remit to look at joint Commonwealth-state actions, although its terms of reference preclude examining unilateral actions taken by states and territories or international programs.

Across a series of roundtables, the inquiry has been told of major shortcomings with elements of the federal and state governments’ responses to COVID-19 and the long-term problems these have caused.

Health experts said border closures had a “significant” impact on healthcare provision, particularly in rural, remote and border communities, arguing health workers should be exempt from such restrictions.

Australia’s average age fell last year while the country experienced a record number of deaths in 2022.

Chronic disease monitoring and cancer screening were disrupted, the sector said, noting a nationally co-ordinated effort was now required to clear the backlog of tests.

“People are currently waiting longer for care than before the pandemic, are often sicker and [are] finding it less affordable,” the sector said.

Experts said the mental health system was in crisis before the pandemic, and COVID-19 had exacerbated problems that had only worsened since.

“Australian communities are experiencing a process of rolling recoveries from one emergency to the next (extreme weather events and the pandemic), with resulting cumulative trauma,” they told the inquiry.

“More emphasis is needed on community resilience and on strengthening the system ahead of the next emergency.”

Climate Change State of Play 2022: These days living in Yamba NSW is like existing within many confusing layers of altered reality

These days living in Yamba NSW, situated on a 500 sq km coastal floodplain at a point where the 'Mighty' Clarence River meets the vastness of the Pacific Ocean, is like existing within many confusing layers of altered reality.

In the local paper on 23 November 2022 the front page led with an article titled "Stop Building On Floodplains" in which both the Prime Minister, Federal Minister for Emergency Management, and even NSW Premier Perrottet expressed concerns about continuing to expand the urban footprint on floodplains. 

Prime Minister Albanese and Minister Watt came out strongly on the "need to stop development on floodplains". Though in all honesty Mr. Perrottet's statement had all the slippery characteristics of a political bet each way, only wanting to "learn from past mistakes" given his government is currently attempting to concrete over and garden gnome infest many of the state's floodplains between the mountains and the sea.

Clarence Valley Independent, 23 November 2021, Page One

On page 8 of the same issue there was another article accompanied by a colourful graphic (left) reciting the progress being made with the infilling of most of Yamba's remaining natural flood storage area in order to build up to another 1,528 dwellings to house what could be as many as est. 3,800 men, women and children on 127 ha of urban release land approved by the NSW Government as part of its planning policy for residential growth.

Thus growing the permanent resident population to well over 10,000 people just in time for the full brunt of climate change to zero in on the New South Wales coastal zone.

At this point North Coast Voices readers may feel a hint of the cognitive dissonance many local residents are experiencing.

For with landfill yet to be completed, Carrs Drive still raddled by the effects of both flooding & continuous heavy vehicle movements and stormwater/floodwater drainage issues not yet resolved, the rapacious developers are beginning to sell 'off the plan' house and land packages such as these "California dreaming" lifestyle packages on 18.2ha of Carrs Drive land that is historically prone to 1 in 5, 1 in 20, 1 in 50, 1 in 100 flood events — any of which statistically could happen in any given year.

Artist's rendition of yet to be built "Clifton" retirement living

IMAGE: realestate.com.au, retrieved 28 November 2022

So here we sit in Yamba — watching Coalition politicians accompanied by a bevy of developers and real estate agents sell a future that is already gone forever — knowing full well that the Australian Government, CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology and independent climate scientists are all telling us that in eight years time the subregion which we inhabit will be entering a climate where nothing is certain except the fact that we will be living through never ending, erratic cycles of unnatural disasters until the river and ocean reclaim Yamba as their own.