An number of uncomfortable caveats are apparent in the following statements made concerning New South Wales floodplains....
*yellow
highlighting in this post is mine*
AAP
General News Wire.
3 November 2023:
More
planned developments could be scraped in NSW after a state government
report found there was a risk to residents' lives in flood plain
areas.
Plans
to build extra homes on high-risk flood plains could be shelved
across NSW after the state government axed the rezoning of land on
Sydney's outskirts.
The
decision to scale back the developments on the city's northwestern
fringe followed a state government flood report that declared there
would be a “risk to life” in the case of a mass evacuation.
Planning
Minister Paul Scully said the government was considering extending
the measure to any dangerous flood plain area, although he declined
to give a clear definition of what that would entail.
"It's
one, not unreasonably, that puts lives at risk," he told a
budget estimates hearing on Friday.
"The
definition of dangerous will vary based on the frequency, the
severity (and) the capacity for people to leave."
The
state government on Sunday announced it was scrapping rezoning plans
for Marsden Park North and parts of West Schofields, which were due
to be developed with more than 10,000 homes.
Plans
for a new Riverstone Town Centre will also no longer go ahead.
The
decision followed the release of a flood evacuation report, which
found there was a risk to life in areas such as the Hawkesbury-Nepean
basin.
Mr
Scully on Friday described the area as the plain with the highest
unmitigated flood risk of anywhere in Australia.
The
report said the number of people unable to evacuate from the region
in the case of a flood increased significantly if all potential
development was to occur.
"For
example, for a 1-in-500 chance per year flood (similar to the worst
flood on record), the risk to life would increase from an estimated
980 people under committed development to around 23,700 people by
2041," it read.
Opposition
Leader Mark Speakman called on the government to be transparent about
its modelling, referring to criticisms of the evacuation report by
former NSW Police deputy commissioner Dave Owens.
"Obviously
governments cannot be reckless and put people in harm's way," he
told ABC Radio.
Pressed
at estimates about whether the government would stop housing
developments in other flood-plain regions, such as Clarence Valley in
the Northern Rivers, Mr Scully said he was "looking at all
options".
"Where
there are cases where we believe there should be an intervention,
that will happen," he said.
"As
a broader policy work, that continues.
"We
absolutely won't put lives unnecessarily at risk by building on
dangerous flood lines."
Mr
Scully said if housing developments did not go ahead, the land could
be used in alternative ways.
"Just
because you can't use a piece of land for residential use, doesn't
mean you can't use it for other uses ... there's sporting fields,
there's biodiversity, there's the potential for areas to be zoned as
industrial or commercial," he said.
Deputy
Premier, Minister for Planning and Public Spaces & Labor MP for Wollongong Paul Scully,
media
release,
29 October 2023:
Focus
on prevention to reduce risk to life during floods in the
Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley
Published:
29 October 2023
The
NSW Government is delivering on its election commitment to no longer
develop housing on high-risk flood plains in Western Sydney.
The
Government is today announcing it has rezoned parts of the North-West
Growth corridor to ensure NSW does not construct new homes in
high-risk areas.
The
Government is also releasing the Flood
Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley,
which informed the rezoning decisions.
No
more building on high-risk flood plains
We
cannot continue to develop and build new residential towns in
high-risk areas, and risk putting more people in harm’s way.
Following
a rigorous assessment process and review of expert advice on
flooding, it has been determined the proposed rezoning and draft
plans for Marsden Park North precinct and Riverstone Town Centre will
not proceed.
The
plans for the West Schofields precinct will partially proceed,
subject to strict conditions.
The
three projects fall within the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley floodplain
and were put on hold in 2020 until further flood risk investigations
and evacuation modelling were completed.
It
means that, in line with the NSW Government’s election commitment,
and in taking a risk-based approach to planning decisions on
dangerous flood plains, of the approximately 12,700 new homes
previously proposed – but not approved – under the three
rezonings, only up to 2,300 will now proceed.
The
NSW Government will continue to work closely with councils and other
stakeholders to explore suitable land-use options.
Work
is also underway to understand where additional housing can be
accommodated to mitigate the impacts of these decisions on the
housing pipeline.
Flood
Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley
The
land-use planning decisions follow the release of Flood
Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley.
The
modelling was undertaken to help make better decisions on emergency
evacuations, land use planning and road upgrades in one of
Australia’s most dangerous flood risk areas.
The
former NSW government commissioned an independent expert inquiry led
by Mary O’Kane and Mick Fuller into the preparation for, causes of,
response to and recovery from the 2022 catastrophic flood event
across the state of NSW.
Key
recommendations in the report included revised and updated flood
modelling and disaster adaption plans to help resolve rezoning
decisions.
This
updated modelling has been instrumental in the NSW Government’s
consideration of the three planning proposals in Sydney’s
North-West Growth Area.
The
Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley covers over 500km2 of floodplain in Western
Sydney, stretching from Wallacia to Brooklyn and Wisemans Ferry.
It
includes land in Hawkesbury, Hills, Blacktown, Penrith, Central
Coast, Wollondilly, Liverpool and Hornsby Local Government Areas with
more than 140,000 people living or working in the floodplain.
The
valley is often compared to a bathtub – one with five ‘taps’
flowing in and only one drain. Between 2020 and 2022, the area
flooded six times with some of the largest floods seen in decades.
Sadly,
this area has suffered even bigger floods in the past, and the
Government must consider the risk of similar floods in the future.
The
extreme depth of floods in the valley means that large numbers of
people often need to evacuate at short notice before roads out are
cut off. It is not possible to shelter in place in these areas.
Adding
to the complexity, thousands of vehicles need to evacuate using roads
and intersections that were not designed for those levels of traffic.
This
technical Flood Evacuation Modelling report for the Hawkesbury-Nepean
Valley will be used to reduce the risk to life by informing better
planned evacuation routes for flood events, assesses potential road
infrastructure options and inform decisions on potential future
developments.
While
improvements can be made, the flood challenges of the
Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley are not ones that communities can build
their way out of.
The
report makes clear that the number of people who will be unable to
evacuate increases significantly with potential future development
and climate change.
Recognising
that decisions to limit new homes on the flood plain could raise
concerns for small local landowners, the Government has appointed
strategic planning expert Professor Roberta Ryan to provide
independent community liaison support to help affected landowners
them understand and navigate the issues.
Professor
Ryan has previously assisted communities in the Western Sydney
Aerotropolis and Orchard Hills on land-use planning matters.
For
more information read the Flood Evacuation Modelling report or more
about flooding in the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valleylaunch
A
new focus on disaster preparedness
What
is clear, is NSW’s ability to prevent and prepare for disasters has
been hampered by ineffective funding, with 97% of all disaster
funding spent after an event and only three per cent spent on
prevention and preparedness.
It’s
part of why the NSW Reconstruction Authority was established in
December 2022 with the expanded responsibilities to include adaption,
mitigation and preparedness for natural disasters.
As
part of that, an historic $121 million has been invested in the last
Budget to properly resource the NSW Reconstruction Authority and
allow the authority to support communities across the state better
prepare for natural disasters including bushfires, floods and storms.
The
authority is working on a State Disaster Mitigation Plan and new
regional Disaster Adaptation Plan to reduce the impact of floods in
the Valley and this tool will also be used to better understand the
risks.
Today’s
announcement is a key example of the preventative work that will be
prioritised to reduce the impacts of natural disasters in the state.
Minister
for Western Sydney, Deputy Premier Prue Car said:
“Western
Sydney residents have borne the brunt of recent disasters including
the pandemic and floods in the Hawkesbury Nepean Valley.
“By
stopping unsafe development in dangerous areas on flood plains, and
with our Government’s work to reduce the risk of disasters before
they happen, we’re making sure communities across Western Sydney,
in areas including Penrith, Blacktown and Riverstone, are finally
supported and better protected.
“When
we consider new housing areas, we will look at both the potential for
those homes to be inundated in floods, as well as the impact more
homes will have on the ability of both new and existing residents to
evacuate in emergencies.
“We
know we can’t stop natural disasters from occurring, but we are
committed to doing more to prepare for and prevent the worst of their
impacts.”
“This
new tool will not only help us better plan for evacuations but it
will also make our amazing emergency service workers safer by
reducing the risks they face when responding to floods in the
valley.”
Minister
for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said:
“We’ve
all seen the devastation caused by floods in the Hawkesbury-Nepean
Valley – with homes and businesses damaged or destroyed. We also
know these communities will only face more and worse flood risks if
things stay the same.
“There’s
no simple solution but we are working on a suite of measures which
includes this tool to help NSW better prepare for disasters.
“These
are hard and complex policy problems – we need to deliver new
housing, but it needs to be done safely.
“New
developments could impact the ability of both new and existing
residents to evacuate safely during emergencies, which puts more
lives at risk.
“I’d
rather a disappointed landowner confront me over a decision we’ve
made to keep them safe, rather than console them when they’ve lost
a loved one because of floods.
“We’ve
been clear that we will put an end to unsuitable development on
dangerous flood plains which puts lives at risk and destroys
livelihoods - this model gives us the technical data needed to make
those informed decisions and balance competing priorities.”
****************************
Frequently
Asked Questions
Flood
Evacuation Modelling at:
https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-10/Hawkesbury%20Nepean%20Valley%20Flood%20Evacuation%20Model%20FEM%20FAQs.pdf
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