Showing posts with label Australian politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australian politics. Show all posts
Saturday 12 May 2018
Tuesday 10 April 2018
So many Newspoll losses mean democratic processes at risk as Turnbull Government strives to claw back political ground
“The Coalition now trails Labor by 47.5 per cent to
52.5 per cent in two-party terms across the four polls. This reflects a 48:52
result from Fairfax/Ipsos, the same from Newspoll, the same from Essential and
a 46:54 result from ReachTel on March 29.” [The
Sydney Morning Herald, 9 April 2016]
From
May 2014 to September 2015 the Abbott
Coalition Government experienced 30 consecutive negative Newspoll federal voting intentions
opinion polls*.
After
the sacking of Tony Abbott by his party and the installation of Malcolm
Turnbull as prime minister the Turnbull Coalition
Government saw 12 positive Newspolls before this second rendition
of a Coalition federal government itself experienced 30 consecutive negative
Newspolls from 12 September 2016 to 9 April 2018.
This
polling history indicates that the Liberal-National federal government is
likely to have only had the national electorate’s approval for around ten of
the last thirty-seven calendar months.
According
to the Australian Electoral Commission;
As
House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are usually held
simultaneously, the earliest date for such an election would be Saturday 4
August 2018. As the latest possible date for a half-Senate election is Saturday
18 May 2019, the latest possible date for a simultaneous (half-Senate and House
of Representatives) election is also Saturday 18 May 2019.
Given
that (i) between them the Abbott and
Turnbull governments have
experienced experienced only 12 positive
polls in the last 68 Newspolls; and (ii)
the Liberal Party has already admitted that during its successful March 2018 South Australian
election it had utilised
the services of one of the known “bad actors” on the international election campaign
consultancy scene, the US-based data miner i360;
it is highly likely that “bad actors” will be employed once more and over the
next four to thirteen months voters will be subjected to a barrage of
misinformation, bald lies, vicious rumour and false promises from both
Coalition politicians and their supporters in mainstream and social media.
Voters will have to fact check what they hear and read as never before.
Voters will have to fact check what they hear and read as never before.
* A
federal voting intentions Newspoll is
considered negative for one or other of the two main political parties based on two party preferred percentage results.
Newspolls surveys normally occur every two to three weeks outside of election campaign periods when they are likely to occur more often.
Newspoll results can be found at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll.
Newspolls surveys normally occur every two to three weeks outside of election campaign periods when they are likely to occur more often.
Newspoll results can be found at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll.
Tuesday 6 February 2018
26th Newspoll loss in a row for Turnbull Government
In the same week the 2018
Australian Parliament commenced business for the year Malcolm Bligh Turnbull was just four Newspolls short of the benchmark he created when he successfully challenged
Tony Abbott in September 2015 and became Australia’s 29th Prime Minister.
As of 4
February 2018 Newspoll
shows the Coalition is just one point ahead of Labor on the primary
vote and on a Two Party Preferred basis it is four points behind.
While net satisfaction
with leaders’ performance sees Turnbull a slender four points ahead at minus
13.
Should we
expect a Libspill sometime in
April-May 2018 if the polls continue this trend? Or are the Liberal and Nationals powerbrokers going to grit
their teeth and soldier on until the forthcoming federal election?
Labels:
Australian Parliament,
Australian politics,
poll,
statistics
Saturday 6 January 2018
Political Cartoons of the Week
Labels:
Australian politics,
US politics
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