“The Coalition now trails Labor by 47.5 per cent to
52.5 per cent in two-party terms across the four polls. This reflects a 48:52
result from Fairfax/Ipsos, the same from Newspoll, the same from Essential and
a 46:54 result from ReachTel on March 29.” [The
Sydney Morning Herald, 9 April 2016]
From
May 2014 to September 2015 the Abbott
Coalition Government experienced 30 consecutive negative Newspoll federal voting intentions
opinion polls*.
After
the sacking of Tony Abbott by his party and the installation of Malcolm
Turnbull as prime minister the Turnbull Coalition
Government saw 12 positive Newspolls before this second rendition
of a Coalition federal government itself experienced 30 consecutive negative
Newspolls from 12 September 2016 to 9 April 2018.
This
polling history indicates that the Liberal-National federal government is
likely to have only had the national electorate’s approval for around ten of
the last thirty-seven calendar months.
According
to the Australian Electoral Commission;
As
House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are usually held
simultaneously, the earliest date for such an election would be Saturday 4
August 2018. As the latest possible date for a half-Senate election is Saturday
18 May 2019, the latest possible date for a simultaneous (half-Senate and House
of Representatives) election is also Saturday 18 May 2019.
Given
that (i) between them the Abbott and
Turnbull governments have
experienced experienced only 12 positive
polls in the last 68 Newspolls; and (ii)
the Liberal Party has already admitted that during its successful March 2018 South Australian
election it had utilised
the services of one of the known “bad actors” on the international election campaign
consultancy scene, the US-based data miner i360;
it is highly likely that “bad actors” will be employed once more and over the
next four to thirteen months voters will be subjected to a barrage of
misinformation, bald lies, vicious rumour and false promises from both
Coalition politicians and their supporters in mainstream and social media.
Voters will have to fact check what they hear and read as never before.
Voters will have to fact check what they hear and read as never before.
* A
federal voting intentions Newspoll is
considered negative for one or other of the two main political parties based on two party preferred percentage results.
Newspolls surveys normally occur every two to three weeks outside of election campaign periods when they are likely to occur more often.
Newspoll results can be found at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll.
Newspolls surveys normally occur every two to three weeks outside of election campaign periods when they are likely to occur more often.
Newspoll results can be found at https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll.
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