CLIMATE CHANGE: what can the NSW North Coast expect from 2020 onwards?

The NSW Baird Coalition Government's Dept. of Planning Industry and Environment published Climate Projections For NSW in November 2014.

It remains on the departmental website as current data.

Below are some of the mapping and observations within these Adapt NSW documents as they pertain to the NSW North Coast.

Given that: 

a) Australia has already warmed by just over 1°C since 1910 with most of that warming occurring in the last 60 years; 
b) in recent decades there has been the most sustained large-scale change in rainfall in the southern half of the continent since records began in 1900 and stream flows have been decreasing since the 1970s; 
c) the number of high value Forest Fire Danger Index days have been increasing in recent decades; and
d) the number of bushfire days the North Coast has experienced since the August 2019 start of the fire season has resulted in well over 1 million hectares of forest and farmland being burned out;

add to this the fact that significant land loss in places like the Lower Clarence Valley is likely to begin at only a 0.5m rise above mean sea level and, possibly the Adapt NSW regionally specific projections need to be reworked to include Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO data from 2014 onwards. 

Perhaps then some uncomfortable questions can be resolved.

Is it possible that climate change is beginning to speed up across eastern Australia? 

Is 2019 likely to be an anomaly which has no effect on the published climate change projections or is it the new norm and some of the 2020-2039 mapping is now just digital junk?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

NSW North Coast 2020-2039 Change In Annual Average Number of Days With Temperatures 
Greater Than 35 Degrees Celsius 

By 2030 maximum temperatures are projected to rise by 0.7 ºC and continue to rise by 1.9 ºC by 2070.....By 2030 the North Coast is projected to experience an average of 3 more days above 35 ºC per year and continue to rise to 9 days per year by 2070.......Summer will see the greatest changes in maximum temperatures, increasing by 2.1°C in the far future.

NSW North Coast 2020-2039 Change In Average Rainfall

SPRING

SUMMER

In 2020-2039 rainfall is projected to decrease in winter [-6.1%] and to increase in autumn [+8.5%] and spring [+3.3%]. A raifall decrease of -2.8% is also predicted for summer rainfall.

NSW North Coast 2020-2039 Change In Forest Fire Danger Index 

 SPRING

 SUMMER

The North Coast is expected to experience an increase in severe and average FFDI values in the near future and the far future.  The increases are projected in summer and spring. Although these changes in severe fire weather are relatively small in magnitude (up to one additional day every two years) they are projected to occur in prescribed burning periods (spring) and the peak fire risk season (summer).  

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

Pampas Grass as decoration for your wedding? Don’t even think about it!

An ACT park ranger spraying the noxious weed Pampas Grass (Cortaderia species)

on a road verge.

According to the NSW Dept of Primary Industries: 

Pampas grass grows in clumps about 1 – 1.5 m across, with fluffy flower heads on tall stems. Common pampas grass is up to 6 m tall when in flower. Pink pampas grass is up to 4 m tall when in flower.  

Pampas grass outcompetes native vegetation, is a fire hazard, harbours vermin and could threaten forestry.

Pampas grass can quickly establish in disturbed urban and bushland areas 

Photographer: N. Monaghan

This plant is not to be sold in all or parts of NSW.

However, it has apparently become popular with brides-to-be...............

ABC News, 29 May 2019:

PHOTO: The demand for pampas grass took off after images from this wedding went viral. (Image: Ivy Road Photography)

Biosecurity officers have raided florists on the north coast of New South Wales to seize an illegal noxious weed popularised by so-called Instagram weddings.

Pampas grass is native to South America and is considered a weed in most Australian states and territories as it competes with native vegetation and is a fire hazard.

It is a highly invasive plant, with each flower head producing up to 100,000 seeds that can spread to a 25-kilometre radius, and is banned from sale in the Greater Sydney, Hunter, south-east and north coast regions of NSW.

Kim Curtis from Rous County Council said officers had seized the outlawed grass from three locations in the Byron Bay and Tweed regions over the past two weeks.

"It's scary, the seeds on pampas grass can travel for kilometres and it could create another outbreak of a high-priority weed that farmers have to deal with for years to come," she said.

A wedding planner in Byron Bay, Che Devlin, said brides started asking for the wheat-coloured decorative grass for their big days after photos from a Byron Bay hinterland wedding, featuring the grass, went viral on Instagram in 2017.

Mr Devlin said after the council had informed florists that the plant was banned on the north coast there had been an attempt to steer people away from the weed towards native plants.

However he said it could be difficult to dissuade a bride who had a certain aesthetic in mind.

"The hard thing is, a lot of these florists, if they say no to a bride then that bride will go to the florist who will say yes, so it becomes an economical thing," Mr Devlin said.

Florist Jaala Mills, who co-owns Bower Botanicals in Byron Bay, has worked on a number of local pampas grass weddings.

She said her business had not been involved in the recent pampa grass seizures and that her team had made every effort to ensure the grass was not harmful to the environment.

"We imported the grass in from California," she said.

"It was quarantined in Australia and it went through a process of irradiation to kill the seeds and then we had documentation from customs saying we were legally allowed to have it."

Ms Mills said most florists wanted to do the right thing but there was confusion in the industry about whether they were allowed to hire out grass that had been treated to kill the seeds.

"I wish someone could come out and say exactly what the deal is," she said.

"We want clarification. We hear rumours you can be slapped with a fine for $60,000 but we don't know for sure."....

Australian Marine Life: lovely to look at but do not touch

ABC News. 10 February 2019:

A striking blue dragon sea slug, that eats bluebottles and can give a powerful sting, has been washing ashore and capturing the imagination of residents on the north coast of New South Wales.

The unusual, soft-bodied nudibranch is sometimes described as resembling a dragon in flight, a Pokemon or a blue lizard, and goes by the official name of glaucus atlanticus.

Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Service director, Dr Lisa Gershwin, said it was a fascinating little creature…..

PHOTO: The 'blue dragon' nudibranchs float on the surface and have been spotted on beaches and in rockpools in Port Macquarie recently. (Supplied: Michael Spooner)

Similar to bluebottles, the blue dragon nudibranchs float on the surface of the water and normally spend most of their time in the open ocean.

Dr Gershwin said regular onshore winds along the northern NSW and Queensland coastline this summer had been washing them onto beaches.

"Like bluebottles, they hang out right at the air/water interface, and are all floating, living as a community together, so when the wind blows it moves all of them," she said……

"They are able to store the stinging cells from their prey, that is, bluebottles, in their little … fingers and toes and then use them for their own defence. I've been nailed by them, they hurt."

NSW Far North Coast – big on diverse marine wildlife with very few sharks

Dolphin pod on the move

ABC News, 31 January 2018:

Marine scientists monitoring the waters along the northern New South Wales coastline say the threat of sharks is overblown and they have the data to prove it.

The National Marine Science Centre at Southern Cross University and the NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) collected two years' worth of drone footage as part of the State Government's Shark Management Strategy.

Professor Brendan Kelaher and his team tracked marine wildlife at locations known for shark bite incidents including Lennox Head, Ballina, Byron Bay and Evans Head.

To their delight, they found a thriving and vibrant marine ecosystem and very few "dangerous sharks" among the estimated 4,000 large marine animals they counted.

"One of the outcomes of our data ... we know it's up to 135 times more likely to be a dolphin, which is really good news," Mr Kelaher said.

"Sharks are a little few and far between and what we saw was this other diverse wildlife, which we're excited about."

The drone cameras captured scenes of whales coming close to shore to feed and schools of dolphins.

One of the most breathtaking sights, Mr Kelaher said, were fevers of cownose rays congregating near surfers in complex geometric patterns.

Less common were sharks, which typically took hundreds of flights before one was spotted.

Cownose Rays

Tourism numbers in 2017 and 2018 on the NSW North Coast according to Tourism Research Australia

Pippi Beach, Yamba, australiaswims.com.au

According to Tourism Research Australia in 2017 a total of 263,000 international tourists visited six of the seven local government areas in NSW Northern Rivers region, along with 6,145,000 visitors (including day trippers) from elsewhere in New South Wales and interstate.

Northern Rivers Local Government Tourism Profiles 2017:

Ballina (A)

Byron (A)

Clarence Valley (A)

Lismore (C)

Richmond Valley (A)

Tweed (A)

Kyogle – no data
Note: Data is based on a four year average from 2014 to 2017.

The total tourism spend in the Northern Rivers region in 2014 to 2017 was est. $1.7 billion.

In the year ending September 2018 there was a total of 354,000 international tourists visiting the entire NSW North Coast - from just above Newcastle to the NSW-Qld border and taking in Hamilton Island.

These international tourists spent a total of $246 million with an average spend per person of $696.

According to media reports there were also 5,569,000 domestic visitors to the entire North Coast region in the same period.

An est 145,000 of all tourists were backpackers, who stayed a combined total of 1.48 million nights across the entire NSW North Coast in 2018.

NSW Budget 2018-19: what the NSW North Coast can expect by way of state funding

The Berejiklian Coalition Government approached NSW Budget 2018-19 with an est. $3.9 billion surplus and projected smaller surpluses in following years.

In large measure due to the sale of the state's interest in the Snowy Mountain Scheme to the federal government.

This is what the budget papers indicate the state government is willing to spend on the est. 517,000 residents living within across the local government areas of Ballina, Bellingen, Byron, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour, Kempsey, Kyogle, Lismore, Nambucca, Port Macquarie, Hastings, Tweed and Richmond Valley.

The following are excerpts from Budget documents.

The North Coast is a long string of seaside communities with a heavy focus on tourism and is the most biologically diverse region in New South Wales. The Government is delivering better education and health services for the region and delivering significant investment in roads to enable smoother and safer connections.

Regional highlights

Investment in education and skills:

* new Ballina High School and upgrades at Kingscliff High School and Kingscliff Public School, Murwillumbah High School and Murwillumbah East Public School

* funding for the Kingscliff Campus Connected Health Hub and the Coffs Harbour Education Campus as well as funding for TAFE Connected Learning Centres at Murwillumbah and Yamba.

Health infrastructure funding:

* $50.9 million to continue the $582.1 million construction of a hospital at Tweed

* $16.8 million for the Grafton Ambulatory Care Centre redevelopment  

* $15.5 million for the Coffs Harbour Hospital redevelopment

* $9.1 million for the $73.0 million Macksville Hospital Redevelopment

* $5.0 million for the $11.5 million Port Macquarie Hospital Car Park

* funding to partner with Tresillian to establish a Family Care Centre Hub in Coffs Harbour.

Roads and infrastructure initiatives:

* $1.2 billion for the Pacific Highway upgrade between Woolgoolga and Ballina (State and Federally funded)

* $62.0 million to continue construction of the additional bridge over the Clarence River at Grafton

* $28.0 million for Oxley Highway safety and realignment works

* $20.0 million to progress the Pacific Highway Bypass of Coffs Harbour (fully funded by the NSW and Commonwealth Governments)

* $18.3 million to continue construction of the replacement Bruxner Highway bridge over the Clarence River at Tabulam.

Vibrant visitor economy:

* $1.7 million from the Regional Growth Environment and Tourism Fund for the Stuarts Point Foreshore Revitalisation project

* $7.7 million over four years for the Tweed Hinterlands Walk, Byron to Border Ranges

* $7.5 million for the Macleay Coast, Trial Bay precinct upgrade.

There were also announcements which, although not directly targeting the North Coast, hopefully might benefit the region at some point.

* $23.7 million in 2018-19 to employ an additional 200 paramedics (700 over the next four years) and 13 call centre staff (50 over the next four years) to improve response times, reduce paramedic fatigue and support safety

* increasing frontline health staff, with an estimated 1,370 additional frontline staff across the State, including 950 nurses and midwives, 300 doctors and 120 allied health workers such as physiotherapists, occupational therapists and pharmacists

* record $2.1 billion for mental health services including:

 $100 million per year for specialist community mental health support to continue the Government’s 10-year reforms

$82.5 million for increased admitted and community-based services across NSW.

There were a number of across the board ‘initiatives announced’.

New initiatives include:

* the new Creative Kids Rebate to provide families with a $100 voucher per school aged child, for extra curricular activities including music, drama, visual and performing arts, coding and language classes. This complements the existing Active Kids $100 Rebate, announced in last year’s budget, which has been a resounding success with over $38.0 million in rebates claimed by parents

* establishing an online “one-click energy switch” service through Service NSW, which will allow consumers to find and switch to the best alternative energy deals in the market

* establishing the Service NSW cost of living service – a one-stop shop, available in Service NSW centres, online or over the phone, to promote easy access to available rebates and concessions across government

*  reducing ten of the top parking fines issued by State Government agencies by 25 per cent, ensuring that fines balance fairness and deterrence

* reducing caravan motor vehicle weight tax by 40 per cent, making caravan registration cheaper for families

* extending universal education access to preschool for three year olds, making NSW the first state in Australia to do so, providing an average saving for families of $825 dollars a year from 1 January 2019.

Law enforcement and emergency services will recieve the following:

* $288.2 million over four years to further support the re-engineering of the NSW Police Force and provide the Police Commissioner with the flexibility to deploy resources according to need and effectively address and respond to crime

* increased capability to respond to emergencies in New South Wales with:

$56.4 million over four years for the State Emergency Service Operational Fleet Replacement Program, replacing emergency vehicles and equipment, marine vessels and trailers 

$6.5 million over two years for the Rural Fire Service to repurpose emergency response helicopters gifted by the Australian Defence Force to increase bushfire response capability. 

* $52.6 million over four years from 2018-19 to support the rollout of National Facial Biometric Matching Capability across New South Wales which will enable access to new face-matching technology. This technology will increase the capability to identify suspects or victims of terrorist or other criminal activity, including identity crime

* $151.1 million in 2018-19 ($467.3 million over four years) for the Critical Communications Enhancement Program to expand the coverage of the Government Radio Network and improve critical communications during emergencies.

Apart from: 

$102.1 million (part of a five-year $1.4 billion program) to deliver outcomes that help communities and businesses adapt to a changing climate; 

$250.0 million in loans for the Farm Innovation Fund (FIF). The FIF provides loans of up to $250,000 for investments in farm infrastructure to boost drought preparedness and will now be accessible until 2022. The FIF also offers $50,000 seven-year interest free loans to allow farmers to transport fodder, move live-stock and preserve stock bloodlines; and 

$36.8 million to protect threatened species across NSW by maximising the number of threatened species secured in the wild, by investing $11.9 million to implement the Koala Strategy and $24.9 million through the Saving our Species program;  

there is little thought given to climate change mitigation measures, coastal erosion, water sustainability, protection of farmland or protection of remaining native forests and biodiversity generally.

In addition the NSW Treasurer announced the creation of a $3 billion NSW Generations Fund. A sovereign wealth fund to guard against intergenerational budgetary pressures and keep debt sustainable.

Commencing 1 January 2019 the NSW Government will introduce a 10 per cent point of consumption tax on wagering, applied on all bets. Presumably in order to capture a slice of online betting market profits. 

For a quick look at further details go to the Budget Overview here.

Tweets of the Week

Note: Cr Keith Williams is deputy mayor of Ballina Shire Council on the NSW Far North Coast.

An employer took money from DHS to pay an employee’s maternity leave, didn’t pay her the money, and then forged her signature on records to hide his actions from FWO.

FWO brought a civil case.

It’s time to make wage theft a crime. pic.twitter.com/KH5AnVPFzk

— _robcorr (@_robcorr) May 22, 2018

Bellingen Environment Centre (BEC): “The reality is the hardwood native forest industry on the North Coast is in long term decline following the overharvesting of our native forests to meet over commitments in wood supply to North Coast sawmills"

Guardian News, Nambucca Valley Conservation Association, 29 January 2018:

​

Melinda Pavey's  recent comments on forestry issues  frequently begin with phrases like  " let's consider reality" or "let's listen to the science". 

Unfortunately she appears to do neither according to the Bellingen Environment Centre (BEC) and the Nambucca Valley Conservation Association. 

"The reality is the hardwood native forest industry on the North Coast is in long term decline following the overharvesting of our native forests to meet over commitments in wood supply to North Coast sawmills . In response the industry  is seeking  to intensify harvesting to convert remaining available forests into highly flammable matchstick farms, harvested  intensely  by machines  when very young with much of the outputs burnt in 3 biomass plants proposed for Grafton, Kempsey and Taree," BEC spokesperson Ashley Love said.

"The authoritative document for the North Coast forests is the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) for North East NSW.  It is one of nine regional forest agreements covering the majority of the forested regions of Australia. 

"The reality and the data shows that  North Coast  forests  have the worst representations of forests in conservation reserves of any of the nine regional forest agreement regions throughout Australia.

The forestry industry is seeking to intensify harvesting to convert remaining available forests into highly flammable matchstick farms

Ashley Love, Bellingen Environment Centre

"Rather than a ratio of conservation reserves to harvestable forest of 6:1 as Ms Pavey claims, the RFA  reveals a ratio of conservation reserves to total forest area of 1:3.

"Admittedly, not all the forests are harvestable and not all the reserves are covered in forest, so Ms Pavey must be cautious with figures which she uses."

Mr Love said Ms Pavey's claim that recent field survey work had found high koala occupancy in state forests did not have a broad scientific consensus as "the methodology used for the assessment was largely based on the results from placement of limited numbers of sound recording devices in the field – a very imprecise way of assessing koala populations".

"Her claim that harvested areas of forest regenerate is contradicted by the recent progress report of the RFAs which reports natural regeneration of  70 per cent over of areas harvested during the last 15 years. 

"We don't want to see 30 per cent of our forests lost each time they are harvested." 

"Ms Pavey's report of 27 timber mills between The Hunter and the Tweed indicates just how much the industry has declined – once there were hundreds of mills on the North Coast and thousands of employees in the timber industry.  Logging practices of cutting smaller and smaller trees have meant that the future sawlogs are not being left to grow on."

"She infers that 750 direct jobs in the timber industry are at risk by the establishment of the Great Koala National Park (GKNP) .  In so claiming, she is including in her estimate all the people employed in the industry between the Hunter and the Tweed Rivers and is including those working within plantations and private forest areas which are not included in the GKNP proposal."

NVCA president Paula Flack said that regardless of the National Party's continuous exaggeration of timber industry job numbers on the North Coast, they were dwarfed in comparison to the number of direct and indirect jobs which the GKNP would generate. 

"One recent study from Victoria indicated that one conservation reserve proposal for the Central Highlands forests would generate an additional 750 jobs," Ms Flack said.

"The establishment of national parks on public land and marine parks at sea is a global phenomenon and one of the universal responses to the increasing recognition of the need to protect and, in many cases, restore our natural environments. 

"Unfortunately our current Liberal National Party political leaders are unwilling see the wider environmental, social and economic benefits of the Great Koala National Park and would rather ignore the facts and science by swimming against the tide." 

Shark management on the NSW North Coast

Senate Environment and Communications References Committee, Inquiry Report, Shark mitigation and deterrent measures, December 2017:

List of recommendations

Recommendation 1

8.19 The committee recommends that the New South Wales and Queensland Governments:

* immediately replace lethal drum lines with SMART drum lines; and

* phase out shark meshing programs and increase funding and support for the development and implementation of a wide range of non-lethal shark mitigation and deterrent measures.

8.20 The committee further recommends that the Australian Government pursue this recommendation at a future Meeting of Environment Ministers.

Recommendation 2

8.28 The committee recommends that, while state government lethal shark control programs remain in place, management arrangements for these programs should include more effective and transparent catch monitoring with the objective of improving understanding of the efficacy of lethal measures for public safety and the effects of the measures on the populations of marine species.

Recommendation 3

8.29 The committee recommends that the Australian Government:

* establish a publicly accessible national database of target and non-target species interactions with shark control measures; and

* require the Department of the Environment and Energy to use this information to prepare and publish an annual assessment of the impacts of lethal shark control measures on target and non-target marine species.

Recommendation 4

8.30 The committee recommends that state governments review and regularly audit the quality of the data collected on target and non-target species interactions with shark control measures.

Recommendation 5

8.37 The committee recommends that the Australian Government establish a review into the effectiveness of shark research and, following the review, commit to providing funding on a long-term basis for research areas that are considered likely to significantly contribute to improved knowledge about effective shark mitigation and deterrent measures.

Recommendation 6

8.38 The committee recommends that the Australian Government review the funding provided to CSIRO to enable CSIRO to:

* undertake ongoing data collection and monitoring to support the determination of white shark population trends;

* develop a predictive model of shark abundance and location; and

*• undertake a social survey to determine how the behaviour of water users has changed in response to the recent human–shark interactions.

8.39 The committee further recommends that the Australian Government seek advice from CSIRO as to whether research can be undertaken to address anecdotal evidence presented to the committee on the potential risk that certain ocean-based activities, such as the use of teaser baits in cage diving, crayfish pots and trophy hunting, might increase the risk of human–shark interactions. The Australian Government should review the funding provided for marine science research to enable CSIRO (or another research institution) to conduct the research CSIRO advises could be undertaken.

Recommendation 7

8.42 The committee recommends that the Australian Government initiate discussions with state and Northern Territory governments regarding the clinical information collected about shark bite incidents to enable subsequent expert analysis of shark behaviour.

Recommendation 8

8.46 The committee recommends that the Australian Government match funding provided by state governments in support of the development of new and emerging shark mitigation and deterrent measures.

Recommendation 9

8.52 The committee recommends that the Australian Government develop a process to ensure products marketed as personal shark deterrent devices are independently verified as being fit-for-purpose.

Recommendation 10

8.53 The committee recommends that the Minister for the Environment and Energy and relevant state governments work with key stakeholder groups, such as national surfing organisations, to encourage water users to take all reasonable steps to reduce the probability of being involved in a shark bite incident, including by endorsing the use of independently verified personal deterrent devices.

Recommendation 11

8.55 The committee recommends that the Western Australian Government's trial rebate program for independently verified personal deterrent devices be made ongoing in Western Australia and adopted by other relevant state governments.

8.56 The committee further recommends that relevant state governments consider developing programs for subsidising independently verified personal deterrent devices for occasional surfers at beaches associated with the risk of dangerous shark encounters.

Recommendation 12

8.62 The committee recommends that the Australian Government hold a National Shark Summit of shark experts.

Recommendation 13

8.63 The committee recommends that the Australian Government establish a National Shark Stakeholder Working Group comprising key stakeholders in shark management policies. The principal function of the Working Group would be to further the objective of ending lethal shark control programs by developing strategies and facilitating information sharing about the effective use of non-lethal measures.

Recommendation 14

8.68 The committee recommends that the National Shark Stakeholder Working Group review the adequacy of information available to beachgoers regarding the risk presented by sharks, such as signage at beaches and how real-time information provided through shark alert apps can be made available at beaches.

Recommendation 15

8.69 The committee recommends that the Australian Government, working with relevant state governments, develop a program to provide grants for specialised trauma kits at venues near beaches associated with the risk of human–shark encounters.

Recommendation 16

8.70 The committee recommends that relevant state governments review the water safety education programs and education about sharks generally that is provided in schools (particularly schools in coastal areas), with a view to enhancing the education provided on reducing the risk of shark interactions and improving knowledge about shark behaviour and the ecological value of sharks.

8.71 As part of these reviews, the committee recommends that state governments consider the role that relevant community and scientific organisations with expertise in human–shark encounters could have in supporting the delivery of such programs.

Recommendation 17

8.72 The committee recommends that the National Shark Stakeholder Working Group review the various social media accounts and apps that distribute real-time information about shark sightings and warnings about the risk of shark activity to consider whether an integrated national database and app should be established.

Recommendation 18

8.74 The committee recommends that the New South Wales Department of Primary Industries improve its consultation and communication with animal rescue groups regarding marine wildlife caught in or injured by lethal shark control measures.

Recommendation 19

8.80 In light of the repeated use of section 158 exemptions for lethal shark control programs, the committee recommends that the next independent review of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 carefully consider whether section 158 is operating as intended. In particular, the committee recommends that the independent review consider:

* whether the matters the Minister may consider in determining the national interest should be limited; and

* whether section 158 should be amended to prohibit the repeated granting of exemptions for the same controlled action or any other controlled action of a similar nature.

Recommendation 20

8.81 The committee recommends that the Minister for the Environment and Energy refrain from granting exemptions under section 158 of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 for matters relating to shark control programs until after the operation of section 158 has been reviewed in accordance with Recommendation 19.

The burning question which flows from these recommendations is: Will the Berejiklian Government listen?