The answer comes down to a single number - the concentration of carbon in out atmosphere. The measure that greatly determines global temperature

 

https://youtu.be/A6SO0xkr_uI 

Speech at UN COP26 Climate Conference, Glasgow Scotland U.K., November 2021 by Sir David Attenborough OM GCMG CH CVO CBE FRS FSA FRSA FLS FZS FRSGS FRSB. 

Scott Morrison's "The Australian Way" climate change policy called out as unworkable, reckless and dangerous at UN COP26 Climate Change Conference 2021

"The pandemic has taught us that national solutions to global problems do not work. We come to Glasgow with global ambition to save our people and to save our planet. But we now find three gaps. On mitigation climate pledges are NDCs [nationally determined contributions]. Without more we will leave the world on a pathway to 2.7 degrees and with more we are still likely to get to 2 degrees. These commitments made by some are based on technologies yet to be developed and this is at best reckless and at worst dangerous...."  [Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley Q.C., Day Two, UN Climate Conference 2021, Glasgow Scotland U.K.]

FULL SPEECH: "1.5°C is what we need to survive, 2°C, is a death sentence... We do not want that dreaded death sentence, and we've come here today to say, try harder, try harder."

Prime Minister of Barbados Mia Mottley Q.C. addresses #COP26 Climate Conference pic.twitter.com/hlK9cQ1eD6

— CCN TV6 (@tv6tnt) November 1, 2021

Snapshot of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Minister for Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction Angus Taylor listening to the full speech.

Tweet of the Week

 

Just days away COP26: Billboards appear mocking Australia's climate record appear in Glasgow. pic.twitter.com/kW6mjSEnwD

— Lismore CBD Magazine (@NthCoastMedia) October 27, 2021

Left behind in a changing world, the federal Nationals struggle for relevance

The Federal Nationals and Relevance

On 24 October federal National parliamentarians finally agreed to the Government taking a net zero 2050 target to the Glasgow Climate Conference. This apparently difficult decision followed some weeks of farcical posturing and chest-thumping by some of the 21 Nationals who are representatives in the national parliament.

Elsewhere in the nation the 2050 net zero target was accepted as necessary without fuss. All states and territories, whatever the political party in power, endorsed this target and are working towards meeting it. In addition some states, including NSW, have committed to substantial cuts in emissions by 2030.

Australia’s Paris commitment of cuts of 26-28% by 2030 is widely seen by scientists as inadequate if warming is to be kept to less than 2.0°C. However, our Paris target will not be increased despite the urging of the UK and other allies, with the Prime Minister claiming he will not increase the 2030 target because he made a commitment about this to the Australian people. It is far more likely that he cannot increase the 2030 target because of the Nationals’ point blank refusal to endorse any 2030 increase. Presumably many of the Nationals– and particularly the climate change denialists in the party– feel that they have already taken more than enough action on climate change.

There are a number of surprising and seemingly illogical aspects of the federal Nationals’ heads-in-the-sand position on climate matters.

• They do not seem to be aware that the Australian community across the regions, as well as in the major cities, is becoming more concerned about climate change and wants more effective government action.

• They are also apparently unaware of how big business enterprises are working to reduce their climate risk and advocating more action from government. And the Business Council of Australia (in contrast to its pronouncements before the 2019 election) is supporting net zero by 2050 and wants the Government to increase its 2030 target to 46-50% below 2005 levels.

• The impacts of climate change are affecting rural people as well as city dwellers. The Nationals divisive arguments about urban people pushing climate action which will harm people in the regions ignores the reality that climate impacts (longer droughts, extreme weather events, increase in bushfire severity) are increasingly hurting regional people. In relation to Covid we were often told, “We are all in this together.” The same statement obviously applies to climate change.

• The belief that our fossil fuel exports can continue well into the future is delusional. Most, if not all, of our markets will be phasing out their fossil fuel use as they work to reduce their emissions. If the Nationals are so concerned about those currently employed in fossil fuel industries, they should be working on effective transition plans. But they will first have to accept that time is up for these industries.

• They have ignored the significance of changed views in rural industries which are supporting strong emission targets and farming industry climate action. This includes the National Farmers Federation as well as the climate activist group Farmers for Climate Action.

• The fact that they ignore the opportunities for jobs and the economic boosts that will result from new industries that will be developed in the regions as fossil fuels are phased out, highlights two factors underpinning the federal Nationals’ beliefs. The first is their obsession with coal and gas and the big interests that benefit from them. The second is the level of denial about the reality of anthropogenic climate change in the party.

As a result of being left behind in a changing world, the federal Nationals struggle for relevance.

- Leonie Blain

Guest Speak is a North Coast Voices segment allowing serious or satirical comment from NSW Northern Rivers residents. Email northcoastvoices at gmail dot com dot au to submit comment for consideration

G7 Summit June 2021 confirms aim to eliminate unabated international thermal coal power generation from global power generation mix by 2030

“Recognising that coal power generation is the single biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions, and consistent with this overall approach and our strengthened NDCs, domestically we have committed to rapidly scale-up technologies and policies that further accelerate the transition away from unabated coal capacity, consistent with our 2030 NDCs and net zero commitments. This transition must go hand in hand with policies and support for a just transition for affected workers, and sectors so that no person, group or geographic region is left behind. To accelerate the international transition away from coal, recognising that continued global investment in unabated coal power generation is incompatible with keeping 1.5°C within reach we stress that international investments in unabated coal must stop now and we commit now to an end to new direct government support for unabated international thermal coal power generation by the end of 2021, including through Official Development Assistance, export finance, 14 investment, and financial and trade promotion support. This transition must also be complemented by support to deliver this, including coordinating through the Energy Transition Council. We welcome the work by the Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) and donors plan to commit up to $2 billion in the coming year to its Accelerating the Coal Transition and Integrating Renewable Energy programs. These concessional resources are expected to mobilize up to $10 billion in co-financing, including from the private sector, to support renewable energy deployment in developing and emerging economies. We call on other major economies to adopt such commitments and join us in phasing out the most polluting energy sources, and scaling up investment in the technology and infrastructure to facilitate the clean, green transition. More broadly, we reaffirm our existing commitment to eliminating inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2025, and call on all countries to join us, recognising the substantial financial resource this could unlock globally to support the transition and the need to commit to a clear timeline.” [CARBIS BAY G7 SUMMIT COMMUNIQUÉ, Our Shared Agenda for Global Action to Build Back Better , 13 June 2021, excerpt]

Quote of the Week

 

"Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C over 1910–2019, while southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades."  [Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 13 April 2021]

Around the world tolerance is wearing thin for government who don't live up to their promises to tackle climate change

 

The DeSmog Blog post set out below is likely to be the outcome for an Australian  Morrison Government which tries to adopt 'go slow' or 'Claytons' zero emissions targets for 2050 in the fight to stop climate change from increasing in intensity and severity.

A course of inaction which is almost modus operandi for this federal government.

The first indication that this might be the case came when Prime Minister Scott Morrison failed to fully and formally commit to a strong climate change mitigation policy. Rather stating at the Press Club on 1 February 2021 that; “Our goal is to reach net zero emissions as soon as possible, and preferably by 2050”.

The second warning came six days later when Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said: "There is no way we are going to whack regional Australia, hurt regional Australia, in any way shape or form just to get a target for climate in 2050. We are not going to hurt those wonderful people that put food on our table."

DeSmog Blog, 4 February 2021:

The French state has been found guilty of climate inaction in what campaigners have dubbed “the case of the century”.

Today the Paris administrative court concluded France has failed to do enough to meet its own commitments on the climate crisis and is legally responsible for the ensuing ecological damage.

France is the third European country where legal action by campaigners has highlighted significant failings in state action on climate change and forced politicians to act, after the landmark Urgenda case in the Netherlands in 2019 and the Irish Supreme Court’s decision in the national Climate Case last year.

'Historic win'

Jean-François Julliard, Executive Director of Greenpeace France – one of the four NGOs bringing the case – described the ruling as a “historic win for climate justice”.

“This decision not only takes into consideration what scientists say and what people want from French public policies, but it should also inspire people all over the world to hold their governments accountable for climate change in their own courts,” she said.

“For governments the writing is on the wall: climate justice doesn't care about speeches and empty promises, but about facts.”

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LAffaire du Siècle (case of the century), as it was described by NGOs was brought by Greenpeace France, together with Oxfam France, the Nicolas Hulot Foundation and Notre Affaire à Tous, in December 2018.

The groups filed a legal complaint, saying France was not on track to meet its then target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, its minimum commitment as an EU member. Since then, this target has been raised to 55 percent for all EU member states, but it is not yet clear how President Emmanuel Macron will deliver this given France's track record on cutting emissions.

France’s own High Council on Climate has analysed the country’s progress and found it lacking, with emissions substantially exceeding the first two carbon budgets. France had pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 1.5 percent each year, but they fell by only 0.9 percent from 2018 to 2019. The Climate Change Performance Index also shows France’s climate progress slowing, with limited advances in increasing the share of renewables and in decarbonising transport.

The court judgment ruled that: “Consequently, the state must be regarded as having ignored the first carbon budget and did not carry out the actions that it itself had recognised as being necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

‘Moral damages’

The court said it would not be appropriate to fine the government in this case but would publish measures to fix the problem in two months’ time.

Instead of fines, the French government was ordered to pay one symbolic Euro to each of the four NGOs that brought the case for compensation of “moral damages” – essentially harm to their reputation.

Each of these organisations have worked for years to address global warming through campaigning and advocacy, the judgment noted, and “the faulty shortcomings of the state” in respecting this work “have damaged the collective interests” they defend.

Greenpeace notes that the recognition of ecological damage against a public body in the administrative courts marks a significant moment for environmental law in France…...

IUCN report finds climate change is a threat to 69 per cent of Australia's 16 World Heritage sites, including the Great Barrier Reef, more than double the global trend of 33 per cent

 

ABC News, 4 December 2020:

Mark Graham takes hope from pockets of Gondwana rainforests regenerating after the bushfires.(Supplied: Drew Hopper)

Ecologist Mark Graham has studied Australia's Gondwana rainforests for decades and, after years of drought and bushfires, says things have never looked so dire.

"To bear witness to the loss of some of these ecosystems . . . it's a very upsetting thing to observe," he said.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature [IUCN] this week rated Gondwana rainforests a "significant concern". In 2017 the same report rated the forests as "good, with some concern".

The IUCN is the official advisor on nature to the UNESCO World Heritage Committee.

The report also found climate change was a threat to 69 per cent of Australia's 16 World Heritage sites, including the Great Barrier Reef, more than double the global trend of 33 per cent.

Nightcap National Park, in northern NSW, is one of the Gondwana rainforests devastated by fire a year ago.(Supplied: Darcy Grant)

Burnt rainforests 'still suffering'

The Gondwana subtropical rainforests stretch from the Hunter region in NSW to south-east Queensland and were entered on the World Heritage List in 1986, with extensions in 1994.

The 41 national parks and reserves ranging from 10 hectares to 102,712 hectares contain more than 200 rare or threatened plant species and have been compared with the Galapagos Islands in terms of global importance.

Mark Graham said more than a year after major bushfires, some parts of the rainforests were still suffering.

"There are definitely [some of] these really ancient forests that have burnt, and a year or more on there's very little, if any, life in them," he said.

"Thankfully, in some of our fire grounds, there is recovery occurring."

'Other threats increasing'

Mr Graham said the real concern now was more fires that might further reduce the size of the rainforests.

The IUCN report points out that while management has so far been effective in addressing challenges, further management responses will be required to address increasing threats, particularly those posed by bushfires as well as invasive species, pathogens, and climate change.

"There is wide recognition that considerable conservation actions will be required," the report says

"However, there is the lingering prospect that the catastrophe is a clear sign of the impact of climate change on weather patterns, and that these changes will not be reversed easily."…….

The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 December 2020:

The 3 billion animals estimated to have been killed, injured or seen their habitat destroyed by the summer fires is now understood to have included 143 million mammals, 181 million birds, 51 million frogs and 2.46 billion reptiles.

The toll includes an estimated 40 million possums and gliders caught in the path of fires; more than 36 million antechinuses, dunnarts, and other insectivorous marsupials; 5.5 million bettongs, bandicoots, quokkas, and potoroos; 5 million kangaroos and wallabies; 1.1 million wombats and 114,000 echidnas.

It is believed 60,000 koalas were killed, injured or lost habitat, with the worst losses on Kangaroo Island where 40,000 were killed or harmed in some way.

About 11,000 koalas were hit in Victoria and 8000 in NSW according to a new report into the impact of the fires on native wildlife, which confirms an earlier overall estimate but provides far more detail about the losses.

Professor Chris Dickman of the University of Sydney, who oversaw the research on behalf of the Worldwide Fund for Nature Australia, said the impact on reptiles was so high because they live in such great densities in some of the worst affected areas, with small lizards such as skinks reaching densities of 1800 per hectare.

Researchers mapped the path of the 15,000 fires over 11.46 million hectares of the total 19 million hectares that burnt over the summer, and married it with existing data about animal densities in the areas hit.

They did not directly estimate numbers of animals killed because research about how different animals may survive fires is limited, and the factors that contribute to impact are varied. For example some species can flee faster and others are more resilient at surviving later in a burnt landscape.....

Australian Prime Minster Morrison & Foreign Minster Payne not as sanguine about trading partners' pledges of zero green house gas emission targets as they pretend?

This was Australian Prime Minister and Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison after the world left this country even further behind with regard to climate change policy and emissions reduction targets…..

The Sydney Morning Herald, 28 October 2020:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he will not be dictated to by other governments' climate change goals, declaring he is not worried about the future of Australia's exports despite four of the country's top trading partners adopting net-zero emissions targets.

China, Japan, Britain and South Korea, which account for more than $310 billion in Australian annual trade between them, have all now adopted the emissions target by 2050 or 2060, ramping up pressure on Australia's fossil fuel industry. Coal and natural gas alone are worth more than 25 per cent of Australia's exports, or $110 billion each year….

Major Australian export companies such as Rio Tinto, BHP, major agriculture groups and multinational food companies are pursuing carbon neutrality, which experts say is a move to avoid being stung with trade tariffs or charges by countries that have set net-zero targets….

Australian Foreign Affairs Minister and Liberal Senator Marise Payne was just as stubborn as her own prime minister.

However, it was made obvious by at least one other media article published the next day that Morrison was perhaps uncomfortable with the situation and how it might read to the general public.

The Guardian, 29 October 2019:

The Morrison government has quietly appointed an expert panel to come up with new ways to cut greenhouse gas emissions and given it less than a month to come up with recommendations.

In what is being seen by observers as an acknowledgment that its main climate change policy, the $2.55bn emissions reduction fund, is failing to cut national pollution, the government has appointed a panel of four business leaders and policy experts to suggest options to expand it.

The panel is headed by Grant King, the outgoing president of the Business Council of Australia and a former chief executive of Origin Energy. It was appointed by the minister for emissions reduction, Angus Taylor, in mid-October but has not been made public…..

The panel has been established despite Morrison and Taylor maintaining they have set out “to the last tonne” of carbon dioxide how Australia will meet the 2030 emissions target announced before the Paris climate conference . In reality, national emissions have risen each year since 2015  and most analyses  suggest the government will not reach the goal, a 26%-28% cut below 2005 levels, under current policies…..

Expert Panel examining oppo... by The Guardian

https://www.scribd.com/document/432470725/Expert-Panel-examining-opportunities-for-further-abatement

BACKGROUND

The Sydney Morning Herald, 28 October 2019:

Australia's carbon emissions appear to have edged higher in the final quarter of the 2018-19 financial year, delaying the downward trajectory the nation needs in order to hit the country's Paris climate goals.

National emissions are projected to have reached 134.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) in April-June 2019, according to Ndevr Environmental Consultants, an environmental auditing company with a track record of accurately estimating the nation's emissions.

That total would come in about 900,000 tonnes of CO2-e more than for the previous three months, Ndevr said in a report based on public data and sector estimates. The tally would be less - by a similar amount - than the fourth quarter of 2017-18.

For the whole year, emissions were modestly higher than for previous 12 months, marking three consecutive years of increases. Excluding land-use changes - such as deforestation or tree planting - annual emissions have risen for the five years since the Abbott government scrapped the carbon price in 2014…..

Morrison Government continues to drag its feet on national greenhouse gas emissions reduction

Renew Economy, 21 September 2020:

Morrison said, of net zero emissions:

"Well, as you know, our policy is to achieve that in the second half of this century, and I certainly will achieve that, and that’s why this week’s announcements were so important because it was about the technology we need to invest in now, which will make it a reality, particularly on the other side of 2030. The target that you’ve talked about becomes absolutely achievable. I’m interested in doing the things that make that happen. I think that is very achievable"…..

Morrison was, in fact, effectively stating that Australia would reach net zero emissions by 2100. Heck, what’s a half-century between friends?

In fact, Australia’s Paris climate agreement targets are neatly aligned with reaching net zero by 2100, whereas Labor’s old 45% by 2030 targets were aligned with net zero by 2050 (the far safer option). Unfortunately, the latest projections from the government are wildly off course, not only for net zero by 2050, but also for net zero by 2100….

If the rate of yearly emissions drops between 2020 and 2030 in Australia’s government projections continue, by my own reckoning, Australia will reach net zero emissions in the year 2300….

The Guardian, 22 September 2020:

The Morrison government’s rejection of a net zero emissions target for 2050 is at odds with the Paris agreement and more than 100 countries that have backed the goal, according to some of Australia’s most experienced climate experts..... 

countries in Paris including Australia had specifically asked the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to examine what 1.5C of heating would mean, and what needed to be done to avoid it. 

The resulting report, released in 2018, found global emissions needed to effectively be cut in half by 2030 – to be 45% below 2010 levels – and to reach net zero by 2050. It found staying within 2C heating would require net zero by 2070, but the impact of that was likely to be far worse. 

Australia chose to stick with its existing 2030 target of a 26% to 28% cut below 2005 levels and is yet to set a date to reach net zero.....

By contrast, [Erwin] Jackson said, Australia was “confusing the market”. “On the one hand, it has signed up to an international agreement that is supposed to put it on a path to net zero emissions by no later than 2050,” he said. “On the other, it keeps talking about ‘low emissions’. We’ve moved on from a conversation about low emissions. Globally, we have recognised we need to get to zero emissions.”

BACKGROUND

Australia is almost standing still when it comes to reducing its national annual greenhouse gas emissions. At the end of 19 calendar years in 2019 federal government policy has only resulted in our annual greenhouse gas emissions falling by a trifling 18.5 metric tonnes in comparison with the annual emissions at the end of the year 2000.

Estimated National Greenhouse Gas Emissions in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent or MTCO2e over last 20 years - includes Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry:

2000 - 551 Mt CO2-e

2001 - 570 Mt CO2-e

2002 - 568 Mt CO2-e

2003 - 561 Mt CO2-e

2004 - 574 Mt CO2-e

2005 - 597 Mt CO2-e 

2006 - 610 Mt CO2-e

2007 - 606 Mt CO2-e

2008 - 590 Mt CO2-e 

2009 - 584 Mt CO2-e 

2010 - 543 Mt CO2-e

2011 - 546.3 Mt CO2-e

2012 - 551.9 Mt CO2-e (total excludes Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry)

2013 - 538.4Mt CO2-e

2014 - 535.9 Mt CO2-e 

2015 - 535.7 Mt CO2-e

2016 – 543.3 Mt CO2-e

2017 – 533.7 Mt CO2-e

2018 – 532.5 Mt CO2-e 

2019 – 532.5 Mt CO2-e (this annual total marks a difference of only -18.5 Mt CO2-e compared with the year 2000 annual total)

2020 – 528.7 Mt CO2-e (total up to 30 March)

Note:

Unadjusted figures found in Australian Government National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Quarterly updates.and at Australian Dept. of Environment and Energy.

The estimated totals from 2000 to 2009 are from Dept. of Energy and Environment.

New report by the World Meteorological Organization warns global warming 1.5℃ limit may be exceeded by 2024—and the risk is growing.

Phys Org, 9 September 2020:

The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organization warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024—and the risk is growing.

This first overshoot beyond 1.5℃ would be temporary, likely aided by a major climate anomaly such as an El Niño weather pattern. However, it casts new doubt on whether Earth's climate can be permanently stabilized at 1.5℃ warming.

This finding is among those just published in a report titled United in Science. We contributed to the report, which was prepared by six leading science agencies, including the Global Carbon Project.

The report also found while greenhouse gas emissions declined slightly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they remained very high—which meant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have continued to rise…..

Read the full article here.