The rolling blacklist is dead and our online privacy is once more protected - or is it?

 

The Age 9 November 2012:

 

Conroy has backed down but there's no shortage of people still pushing to invade our privacy and censor the internet.

It's almost five years since communications minister Stephen Conroy embarked on his crash-or-crash-through campaign to introduce mandatory ISP-level internet filtering for all Australians……

From the very beginning of the debate, outspoken filtering opponents such as Electronic Frontiers Australia and Mark Newton data retention to keep records of everyone's internet usage for two years. There's already a push to expand the scope of this plan.

Meanwhile anti-piracy lomade it clear that the real concern about the planned filter was its broad scope and veil of secrecy which left it open to abuse by those with an agenda.

It didn't take long for calls to expand the proposed filter. Family First Senator, Steve Fielding, called for the filter to cover legal hardcore pornography and fetish material, while Senator Nick Xenophon wanted it to encompass online gambling. The Australian Christian Lobby was also pushing to expand the scope of the filter to cover a wide range of sins…….

"Blocking the INTERPOL 'worst of' list meets community expectations and fulfils the government’s commitment to preventing Australian internet users from accessing child abuse material online," Conroy says.

"Given this successful outcome, the Government has no need to proceed with mandatory filtering legislation."

Only a politician could label such a backdown a "successful outcome", considering it's exactly what he should have done five years ago. Senator Conroy has been gradually backtracking on filtering for some time but only now does it seem safe to declare the plan officially dead. But that doesn't mean that free speech and privacy advocates can rest easy. Right now Australia is debating the proposal for blanket data retention to keep records of everyone's internet usage for two years. There's already a push to expand the scope of this plan.
Meanwhile anti-piracy lobbyists are threatening to bomb the internet back into the stone age with draconian plans which keep emerging under the guise of various proposals such as the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA), Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA), Protect IP Act (PIPA) and the Cyber Intelligence Sharing and Protection Act (CISPA)….

In November 2012 Australian citizens still struggle to get a definitive response from the Federal Attorney-General as to how law enforcement and intelligence agencies will ensure that they are not inappropriately gathering personal information on individuals when they wish to access to the following data without having to automatically apply for a warrant before each request to Internet Service Providers.

Definition of Telecommunications Data

From the Joint Parliamentary Committee on Intelligence and Security

 Inquiry into potential reforms of National Security Legislation

Trapwire bunkers down now those being watched are turning the tables on its spying activities

Going to surveillance agency Trapwire Inc (after its outing as a global super spy also allegedly operating in Australia under government contracts with its parent company, Abraxas Applications) and looking for its management structure at  http://www.trapwire.com/management.html and one was likely to find this displayed:

Which is an incredibly unwise move on this digitally savvy company’s part as Google Cache clearly demonstrated, allowing Imugr gallery to post management personnel profiles on 14 August 2012.

While The Pirate Bay created mirror sites for Trapwire documents removed from US government websites.

The Federal Government wants to widen its ability to spy on Australian citizens

Australian Attorney General Nicola Roxon wants to declare open season on all taxpayers, retirees, welfare recipients, people with business/home computers or email accounts and those with fixed/mobile phones.

Apparently seeking to widen the ability of six intelligence and security agencies, interception agencies, law enforcement bodies and a range of regulatory bodies such as the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, the Australian Taxation Office, Centrelink and a range of State and Territory government organisations to intercept/collect data on or surveil any individual (regardless of whether or not they are suspected of breaking the law) and conduct surveillance of or physically search the premises or belongings of any person of interest.

Ms. Roxon appears to expect all Australians to pay, for this increase in electronic data/telecommunications content collection and interference with lawful computer/phone use, through higher telco and internet service provider fees and charges.

It is no co-incidence that last Thursday was first time a director-general of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) has spoken publicly since the agency was created 60 years ago - to assure the general public that his agency was an upright, touchy feely agency dedicated to protecting the country from all manner of foes and bogey men.

Unfortunately, these assurances ring hollow for many who have had even a modicum of contact with our home-grown spies.

The Joint Committee media release:

Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security

MEDIA RELEASE Issued: 9 July 2012

Chair: Hon Anthony Byrne MP Deputy Chair: Hon Philip Ruddock MP

Committee to examine potential reforms of national security legislation

The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security has commenced an inquiry into potential reforms of national security legislation.

The Government has asked the Committee to consider a package of national security ideas comprising proposals for telecommunications interception reform, telecommunications sector security reform and Australian intelligence community legislation reform. The Inquiry will include examination of:

·         Lawful access to telecommunications, to ensure that investigative tools are not lost as telecommunications providers change their business practices and begin to delete data more regularly.

·         Safeguards and privacy protections, including clarifying the roles of the Commonwealth and state ombudsmen in overseeing telecommunications interception by law enforcement agencies.

·         An authorised intelligence operations scheme, to afford ASIO officers the same protections which currently apply to officers of the Australian Federal Police for authorised operations.

Among a range of other matters, the Committee will consult on measures to address security risks posed to the telecommunications sector, and whether the Government needs to institute obligations on the Australian telecommunications industry to protect their networks from unauthorised interference.

The Chair of the Committee, the Hon Anthony Byrne MP, has welcomed the referral of the inquiry, stating that: “It is vital that our security laws keep pace with the rapid developments in technology”. Commenting on the importance of public input into the Parliament’s examination of the potential reforms, Mr Byrne said the Committee’s inquiry will give the public an opportunity to have a say in the development of new laws in the critical area of national security.

The Committee invites interested persons and organisations to make submissions addressing the terms of reference by Monday, 6 August 2012. The full terms of reference are available on the Committee’s website at: www.aph.gov.au/pjcis.

The Government has provided the Committee with a discussion paper which accompanies the terms of reference and describes the reform proposals. The discussion paper is available on the Committee’s web site. Submitters are strongly encouraged to have regard to the discussion paper in the preparation of submissions for the Committee’s inquiry.

For more information, visit the Committee’s website at http://www.aph.gov.au/pjcis or contact the Committee Secretariat on 02 6277 2360.

Telephone: 02 6277 2360 PO BOX 6021 Facsimile: 02 6277 2067 PARLIAMENT HOUSE Email: pjcis@aph.gov.au CANBERRA ACT 2600 Website: www.aph.gov.au/pjcis

Will it be tears before bedtime for Australian Governments lured by SAIC's siren song?

SAIC Pty Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) registered in Queensland since 1990 and located in Brisbane, Canberra and Melbourne. Ii appears to do business with the Commonwealth and state governments.

According to IT News For Business on 16 April 2012 SAIC has plans:

Science Applications International Corporation has revealed plans to create a regional cyber security research and development centre in Melbourne.

The R&D centre will create 50 jobs over the next three years, according to a statement by the Victorian State Government.

The jobs will be in the areas including high-end defence simulation and "related defence areas".

Specifically, the centre will research data mining and analysis systems, such as SIAC's enterprise search tool TeraText, and its subsidiary's deep packet inspection software, CloudShield……

SAIC has an existing office presence in Queensland and Victoria, and 41,000 employees worldwide.

Then there was this potted history of the corporation in The Washington Post on 22 April 2012:

Last week in these pages, The Post ran a profile of John Jumper, the straight arrow former Air Force general who was brought in as chief executive of local contracting giant SAIC in the wake of an embarrassing overbilling scandal involving bribery, kickbacks, foreign shell corporations and a safe deposit box stuffed with $850,000 in cash.

A year ago company officials were publicly denying that there were any problems at all with its contract to build a new timecard system for New York City, which by then was so late and so over budget that “CityTime” had become a frequent target for the New York tabloids and political embarrassment for Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

It was just last June that SAIC executives and directors first informed shareholders that there might be a little $2.5 million overbilling problem with the contract and that federal prosecutors had brought criminal charges against six employees of an SAIC subcontractor. Shareholders had to read deep into Note 9 of that quarterly report to learn that there might be “a reasonable possibility of additional exposure to loss that is not currently estimable” that “could have a material adverse impact” on the company’s finances.

It was just six months ago that SAIC got around to firing the three executives who were supposed to oversee the New York operations and letting shareholders know that the board of directors had formed a special committee and hired a couple of law firms to get to the bottom of things.

And it was a month ago that SAIC, acknowledging its responsibility in failing to detect a bribery and kickback conspiracy going on right under its corporate nose, agreed to repay the city $500 million of the $635 million it had received for the completed CityTime system. The settlement will allow SAIC to avoid criminal prosecution and the almost certain debarment from government contracting work that would follow.

Now with the appointment of a new chief executive, SAIC wants to assure everyone that the problems have been fixed and that the company has regained its “entrepreneurial spirit” and returned to its “core values.”……

This is what SAIC told the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Infrastructure and Communications in a submission on 19 February 2011:

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) was founded in 1969 by Dr. J.Robert Beyster on the premise of attracting creative and pragmatic technical people to solve the world’s most difficult problems. Today it is a diversified technical company with business in energy, health, national security, environment, and critical infrastructure. SAIC’s 43,000 personnel are committed to meeting the needs of our customers and growing technology markets. The company is headquartered in McLean, Virginia, and we have business operations in Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory, and Queensland among other locations around the world.

Since the 1990s, SAIC has been involved in high-speed networking and high performance computing initiatives, and through our “spun out” subsidiaries (i.e., Network Solutions, Telcordia, ANXeBusiness, etc.) we participated in the growth of the Internet into its now critical place in global communication, economic, social and information infrastructure. As the Internet has grown, we have worked to develop applications that leverage these capabilities to help government improve service delivery (including eGovernment, education, etc.), and help critical infrastructure industries (energy, health, etc.) enhance their effectiveness. SAIC has also been a leader in the rapid development and integration of cybersecurity systems and components that have become required underpinning frameworks for the expansion of these large scale network architectures.

While this is what Pogo.org is telling the world on its Federal Contractor Misconduct Database:

SAIC

SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation) is a scientific, engineering and technology applications company. It works extensively with the U.S. Departments of Defense and Homeland Security, and the intelligence agencies. Founded by J. Robert Beyster, Ph.D., and a small group of scientists in 1969, SAIC and its subsidiaries now have approximately 41,000 employees worldwide.

Federal Contract $: $6861.6m

Total Number of Instances: 13

Total Misconduct dollar amount: $ 533.3m

Can Australian governments afford this corporation?

Andrew Robb comes out in defence of his host, Huawei

One of those tsk, tsk moments....

National Times 28 March 2012:

The opposition finance spokesman, Andrew Robb, has stood by his comments blasting the government for blocking the Chinese telecommunications equipment company, Huawei, from tendering for work with the National Broadband Network, despite the government decision being based on advice from the security agency, ASIO.

Excerpt from Australian Opposition Finance Spokesperson Andrew Robb’s Declaration of Member’s Interests dated 23 January 2012:

UPDATE

The Australian 29 March 2012:

BRITAIN'S intelligence services were forced to erect a costly, resource-intensive auditing structure to ensure Huawei did not steal secrets after the Chinese telco was allowed to take part in a British broadband project.
As Foreign Minister Bob Carr moved to soothe tensions with Beijing, encouraging Huawei to expand its commercial operations in Australia in lieu of lucrative National Broadband Network contracts, the country's top signals intelligence expert, Des Ball, said yesterday there was "no doubt" Huawei partnered with China's espionage services.
Professor Ball, of Australian National University, said officers from Britain's Government Communications Headquarters, the country's top signals intelligence agency, had told him they had to check all the servers, routers, chips and hardware installed by Huawei after the company was allowed to take part in a large-scale broadband project in Britain. "And they still don't have any guarantee they picked everything up," he said....

Perhaps, Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop needs to check the software which came with that Media Pad Huawei Technologies (Aust) gave her as a gift earlier this year.

A selection of Wikileaks' Stratfor emails for your edification and amusement

The Business of STRATFOR

After fifteen years in business it surprises me sometimes how many people wonder about who we are, who funds us, and what we do.  The media refers to us as a think tank, a political risk consultancy, a security company and worse--academics. The Russian media calls us part of the CIA. Arab countries say we are Israelis. It’s wild.  The only things we haven’t been called is a hardware store or Druids.  Given this confusion, I thought it might be useful to occasionally write to our members about the business of STRATFOR, on topics ranging from our business model to how we gather intelligence. 

Let me start with basics.  STRATFOR is a publishing company and it publishes one product—our online intelligence service.  STRATFOR focuses on one subject, international relations.  It uses intelligence rather than journalistic methods to collect information (a topic for a later discussion) and geopolitics as an analytic method for understanding the world.

Stratfor currently has about 292,000 paying subscribers, divided between individual subscribers and institutional ones.  This inflates our subscriber base.  There are many organizations that buy site licenses for all or many of their employees.  We know that most of them never read us.  From a strictly factual point of view, 292,000 paid readers is the number.  Practically it is less but we don’t know how much less.  On the other hand, our free material, two weekly pieces that are sent to our free list and then circulates virally as they say, has been estimated to reach about 2.2 million readers each week.  Where our paid subscription is certainly increased by an unknown degree, this is probably and accurate number. 

The reason that I can be so casual about these numbers is that we do not allow advertising in Stratfor.  If we did, we would be obsessed by the accuracy.  But we don’t for two reasons, one of which is not that we are concerned about advertisers skewing our objectivity.  We are too ornery for that.  The reason is business.  We are in the business of gathering intelligence and delivering it to readers.  Being in another business, selling our readership to advertisers is too complicated for my simple brain.  Plus we would wind up not only depending on my dubious business acumen, but on the acumen of our advertisers.  Second, advertising on the internet doesn’t come close to paying for the cost of content production.  Content aggregators like Google take free content from others and advertise against that.  That’s great business.  But when you are actually producing content, advertising simply won’t cover the costs.

We are therefore one of the few original content producers to be making money by simply selling subscriptions on the web without advertising.  I’m pretty proud of that, in a world where experts say it can’t be done, and I wish I could take credit for that, but it actually is something our Chairman, Don Kuykendall, came up with in 2000.  His view was simple: if you can’t sell at a profit, you don’t have a business.  So we asked people to pay and to my stunned surprise, they did.  So we had a business.

Until that point we were a consultancy.  Only we weren’t a consultancy because a consultant is an expert drawing on long experience to give answers.  Its nice work if you can get it. But we never were a consultancy really. We were a service provider—we would find out things in foreign countries for our corporate clients, usually expensive work in unpleasant countries.  The problem here was profit margin. It costs a lot to gather information in foreign countries, so the nice fat contracts looked very skinny by the time we were done.  We do some intelligence for companies who have been clients of ours for a long time, but at this point about 90 percent of our revenue comes from publishing—you subscription. That supports over 100 employees in the U.S. and sources around the world.

So think of us as a publishing company that produces news using intelligence rather than journalistic methods.  That means that we have people in the field collecting information that they pass on the analysts who understand the information who pass it to writers who write up the information, with any number of steps.  This division of labor allows us the efficiency to produce the product you pay for.  And it has to be a quality product to earn your continued subscription get you to continue to pay. Still gets the point across but sounds less cavalier about it…

The nice part of all of this is that we really aren’t beholden to anyone except our readers, who are satisfied by what we produce, since we have one of the highest renewal rates in the business.  Our goal is simple—to make the complexity of the world understandable to an intelligent but non-professional readership, without ideology or national bias.  Dispassionate is what we strive for, in content and in tone.  In a world filled with loud noise, speaking in a subdued voice draws attention. With over one-quarter of our readers coming from outside the U.S. and Canada, and that percentage growing, these are essential things what are?.

We are more aware than our readers of our shortcomings—everything we do comes under scrutiny from whoever wants to take a shot—including everything I write.  Knowing our shortcomings (I will not tell you about them until we fixed them in the event you missed it) is the key to our success. Fixing it is our challenge.   We are now in a six month surge focused on increasing quality and staff.  The two seem contradictory but that’s our challenge.

Hopefully this gives you some sense of the business of Stratfor that will help you understand us.  I’ll be doing these very few weeks (I don’t want to be tied down on a schedule since I travel a lot—heading to Indonesia at the end of this month).  But its probably time to make sure we aren’t thought of as a think tank—a term I really hate.  When you think of it, think tank is a really bizarre term.

Not for Pub --
We have a sealed indictment on Assange.

Pls protect

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them being a total dickhead?
I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that potentially damage Australian interests upset me.
If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly rape was never the charge.

One other point is this. Ferreting out his confederates is also key.
Find out what other disgruntled rogues inside the tent or outside. Pile on. Move him from country to country to face various charges for the
next 25 years. But, seize everything he and his family own, to include every person linked to Wiki.
Marko Papic wrote:
Nate makes a good point. The arrest is not necessarily the end of Julian Assange. He could become a martyr in jail, particularly a Swedish jail, which I imagine has better amenities than my house.

Assange is going to make a nice bride in prison. Screw the terrorist.
He'll be eating cat food forever, unless George Soros hires him.

The following email exchange involves retired Nationals Senator for Queensland Bill O’Chee.

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "William \"Bill\" O'Chee"
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 21:57:49 +1000
To:
Subject: Re: Julian Assange arrest
Sadly he didn't have a car accident on the way there.
William Oa**Chee
aa**aa"*aa>>*
Partner
Himalaya Consulting
Australia: +61 422 688886
China mob: +86 1365 1001069
On 07/12/2010, at 9:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

Thx

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

Wikileaks begins release of Stratfor Global Intelligence files on 27 February 2012

Wikileaks on Stratfor and the The Global Intelligence Files:

LONDON—Today, Monday 27 February, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files – more than five million emails from the Texas-headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The emails date from between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal’s Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defense Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor’s web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods, for example:

"[Y]ou have to take control of him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control... This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase" – CEO George Friedman to Stratfor analyst Reva Bhalla on 6 December 2011, on how to exploit an Israeli intelligence informant providing information on the medical condition of the President of Venezuala, Hugo Chavez.

The material contains privileged information about the US government’s attacks against Julian Assange and WikiLeaks and Stratfor’s own attempts to subvert WikiLeaks. There are more than 4,000 emails mentioning WikiLeaks or Julian Assange. The emails also expose the revolving door that operates in private intelligence companies in the United States. Government and diplomatic sources from around the world give Stratfor advance knowledge of global politics and events in exchange for money. The Global Intelligence Files exposes how Stratfor has recruited a global network of informants who are paid via Swiss banks accounts and pre-paid credit cards. Stratfor has a mix of covert and overt informants, which includes government employees, embassy staff and journalists around the world.

The material shows how a private intelligence agency works, and how they target individuals for their corporate and government clients. For example, Stratfor monitored and analysed the online activities of Bhopal activists, including the "Yes Men", for the US chemical giant Dow Chemical. The activists seek redress for the 1984 Dow Chemical/Union Carbide gas disaster in Bhopal, India. The disaster led to thousands of deaths, injuries in more than half a million people, and lasting environmental damage.

Stratfor has realised that its routine use of secret cash bribes to get information from insiders is risky. In August 2011, Stratfor CEO George Friedman confidentially told his employees: "We are retaining a law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. I don’t plan to do the perp walk and I don’t want anyone here doing it either."

Stratfor’s use of insiders for intelligence soon turned into a money-making scheme of questionable legality. The emails show that in 2009 then-Goldman Sachs Managing Director Shea Morenz and Stratfor CEO George Friedman hatched an idea to "utilise the intelligence" it was pulling in from its insider network to start up a captive strategic investment fund. CEO George Friedman explained in a confidential August 2011 document, marked DO NOT SHARE OR DISCUSS: "What StratCap will do is use our Stratfor’s intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currencies and the like". The emails show that in 2011 Goldman Sach’s Morenz invested "substantially" more than $4million and joined Stratfor’s board of directors. Throughout 2011, a complex offshore share structure extending as far as South Africa was erected, designed to make StratCap appear to be legally independent. But, confidentially, Friedman told StratFor staff: "Do not think of StratCap as an outside organisation. It will be integral... It will be useful to you if, for the sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and Shea as another executive in Stratfor... we are already working on mock portfolios and trades". StratCap is due to launch in 2012.

The Stratfor emails reveal a company that cultivates close ties with US government agencies and employs former US government staff. It is preparing the 3-year Forecast for the Commandant of the US Marine Corps, and it trains US marines and "other government intelligence agencies" in "becoming government Stratfors". Stratfor’s Vice-President for Intelligence, Fred Burton, was formerly a special agent with the US State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service and was their Deputy Chief of the counterterrorism division. Despite the governmental ties, Stratfor and similar companies operate in complete secrecy with no political oversight or accountability. Stratfor claims that it operates "without ideology, agenda or national bias", yet the emails reveal private intelligence staff who align themselves closely with US government policies and channel tips to the Mossad – including through an information mule in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Yossi Melman, who conspired with Guardian journalist David Leigh to secretly, and in violation of WikiLeaks’ contract with the Guardian, move WikiLeaks US diplomatic cables to Israel……

How low did Lamo go?

Sometime around 21 May 2010 self-identified hacker Adrian Lamo and Bradley Manning began a series of private online conversations. These chats Lamo reported to the FBI , then allegedly sent a full log of these conversations to WIRED and subsequently gave numerous media interviews embellishing his storyline.

Two entries in a three-day transcript from the alleged full log titled Manning’s alleged chat logs diff at CablegateSearch:

(10:23:34 AM) info@adrianlamo.com: I’m a journalist and a minister. You can pick either, and treat this as a confession or an interview (never to be published) & enjoy a modicum of legal protection.
(1:55:10 PM) info@adrianlamo.com: i told you, none of this is for print.

In a much earlier interview on 1 December 2001 Lamo answered the question What is your real name?:

Adrian Lamo. . if you want to be technical, its the Doctor Reverend Adrian A. Lamo, Ph.D . . Doctor of Divinity and minister through the Universal Life Church, the grandma of all diploma mills everywhere. . .i don’t take those seriously, and don’t expect anyone else to, but i put them on my resume and my business cards to make a point of my disdain for the certification and educational process.

Earlier yet in 2003 he allegedly admits to drug abuse.

To date I can find no evidence that he was a bona fide journalist.

This is Salon commentator Glenn Greenwald’s opinion on 14 July 2011:

In sum, the full chat logs -- in particular the parts Wired concealed for over a year -- prove that Adrian Lamo is a serial liar whose claims are inherently unreliable. But Wired's selective editing prevented this from being proven -- served to shield from critical scrutiny the person the BBC accurately described as Poulsen's "long-time associate" -- and thus enabled Lamo to run around for a full year masquerading as a reliable source, making claims that were fabrications and driving much of the reporting about the Manning and WikiLeaks investigations. Enabling false claims to be disseminated to the public on a vital news story -- by withholding plainly relevant information that proves those claims false -- is the opposite of the purpose of journalism, as is needlessly withholding key context to the events one is purporting to describe; yet that's exactly what Wired did here, and continued to do despite growing calls for the release of this information.

Ooops! Obamba's beans get spilled

 

A classic piece from Mark Hosenball at Reuters on 18 January 2011 which must have the Wikileaks legal team crowing:

Internal U.S. government reviews have determined that a mass leak of diplomatic cables caused only limited damage to U.S. interests abroad, despite the Obama administration's public statements to the contrary.

A congressional official briefed on the reviews said the administration felt compelled to say publicly that the revelations had seriously damaged American interests in order to bolster legal efforts to shut down the WikiLeaks website and bring charges against the leakers.

"I think they just want to present the toughest front they can muster," the official said.

But State Department officials have privately told Congress they expect overall damage to U.S. foreign policy to be containable, said the official, one of two congressional aides familiar with the briefings who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

"We were told (the impact of WikiLeaks revelations) was embarrassing but not damaging," said the official, who attended a briefing given in late 2010 by State Department officials.

WikiLeaks caused a media and diplomatic uproar late last year when it began to dribble out its cache of more than 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables……..

A U.S. job offer for Wikileaks?

This is the latest U.S. attack on Wikileaks reported in The Age on 22 January 2011:

WASHINGTON: WikiLeaks, condemned by the US government for posting secret data leaked by insiders, may have used music- and photo-sharing networks to obtain and publish classified documents, according to a computer security firm.

Tiversa Inc, based in Pennsylvania, has evidence that WikiLeaks, which has said it does not know who provides it with information, may seek out secret data itself, using ''peer-to-peer'' networks, its chief executive, Robert Boback, said.

The company, which has done investigative searches on behalf of US agencies including the FBI, said it discovered computers in Sweden were trolling through hard drives accessed from popular peer-to-peer networks such as LimeWire and Kazaa. The information obtained in those searches had later appeared on WikiLeaks, Mr Boback said. WikiLeaks bases its most important servers in Sweden.

''It would be highly unlikely that someone else from Sweden is issuing those same types of searches resulting in that same type of information,'' he said.

Tiversa's claim was ''completely false in every regard'', said Mark Stephens, WikiLeaks's London lawyer.

So this should put a smile on a few faces this morning courtesy of a mention on @BernardKeane:

Joint Request for Statements of Interest: Internet Freedom Programs

January 3, 2011
Department of State
Public Notice

Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor and Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs Joint Request for Statements of Interest: Internet Freedom Programs

SUMMARY

The Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) and the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs (NEA) announce a Joint Request for Statements of Interest (SOI) from organizations interested in submitting proposals for projects that support Internet freedom under the “Governing Justly and Democratically” Foreign Assistance program objective. This solicitation does not constitute a formal Request for Proposals: DRL and/or NEA will invite select organizations that submit SOIs to expand on their ideas via full proposal at a later date.

PLEASE NOTE: DRL and NEA strongly urge applicants to access immediately http://www.grants.gov/ in order to obtain a username and password. It may take up to a week to register with grants.gov. Please see the section entitled, “DEADLINE AND SUBMISSION INSTRUCTIONS” below for specific instructions.

REQUESTED STATEMENT OF INTEREST PROGRAM OBJECTIVES

DRL and NEA invite organizations to submit statements of interest outlining program concepts and capacity to manage projects that will foster freedom of expression and the free flow of information on the Internet and other connection technologies in East Asia, including China and Burma; the Near East, including Iran; Southeast Asia; the South Caucasus; Eurasia, including Russia; Central Asia; Latin America, including Cuba and Venezuela; and Africa. Programming may support activities in Farsi, Chinese, Russian, Burmese, Spanish, Vietnamese, Arabic, French, and other languages spoken in acutely hostile Internet environments. Concepts may be global in nature, regional or country-specific.

Statements should clearly address a) support for digital activists and civil society organizations in exercising their right to freedom of expression and the free flow of information in acutely hostile Internet environments, or b) support for ongoing evaluation and research to enhance global Internet freedom policy and diplomacy. (my emphasis)

Supporting digital activists:

1. Statements of interest should address one or more of the following potential program activities:

Counter-censorship Technology: Development and support of web-based circumvention technology to enable users in closed societies to get around firewalls and filters in acutely hostile Internet environments. DRL and NEA will consider projects that support the deployment of individual technologies in specific environments, as well as projects that identify a lead organization to provide sub-grant and contractual support to non-profit organizations and for-profit companies that develop and maintain circumvention technologies. Statements of interest proposing a consortium of technologies under a lead organization should clearly identify potential technology partners and include an indication of those organizations’ interest in participating in the proposed project. In all cases, preference will be given to peer-reviewed technologies……..

Americans more interested in UFOs than in Wikileaks saga?

With official U.S. Government angst on public display over Wikileaks release of Cablegate material, the Dept of Justice out for blood and both American politicians and some news commentators calling for Julian Assange's head, one has to wonder whether the average person in that country is even mildly interested in this ongoing saga.

Here are some Google Trends snapshots covering all of 2010, which indicate that perhaps (in cyberspace at least) Americans have a more sustained interest in alien life forms than in who obtains and publishes copies of U.S. diplomatic cables.

Tracy McCormick and US Dept of Justice want details all Twitter accounts with connections to Wikileaks

Glen Greenwald writing in Salon on 7 January 2011:

Last night, Birgitta Jónsdóttir -- a former WikiLeaks volunteer and current member of the Icelandic Parliament -- announced (on Twitter) that she had been notified by Twitter that the DOJ had served a Subpoena demanding information "about all my tweets and more since November 1st 2009." Several news outlets, including The Guardian, wrote about Jónsdóttir's announcement.

What hasn't been reported is that the Subpoena served on Twitter -- which was ordered by a federal court -- seeks the same information for numerous other individuals currently or formerly associated with WikiLeaks, including Jacob Appelbaum, Rop Gongrijp, and Julian Assange. It also seeks the same information for Bradley Manning and for WikiLeaks' Twitter account.

The information demanded by the DOJ is sweeping in scope. It includes all mailing addresses and billing information known for the user, all connection records and session times, all IP addresses used to access Twitter, all known email accounts, as well as the "means and source of payment," including banking records and credit cards. It seeks all of that information for the period beginning November 1, 2009 through the present. A copy of the court-ordered Subpoena served on Twitter is here.

The Subpoena was court ordered, signed by a federal Magistrate Judge in the Eastern District of Virginia, Theresa Buchanan. It states that there is "reasonable ground to believe that the records or other information sought are relevant and material to an ongoing criminal investigation." It was issued on December 14 and ordered sealed -- i.e., kept secret from the targets of the Order. On January 5, the same judge ordered the subpoena unsealed at Twitter's request in order to inform the users of the Subpoena and give them 10 days to object; had Twitter not so requested, it could have turned over this information without the knowledge of its users. A copy of the unsealing order is here.

However, what is fascinating about the unsealing order of 5 January 2011 is that - it's not in order. Look closely.......

U.S. happily admits it imprisons more of its own population than any other country in the world

When delving into the Wikileaks Cablegate file sometimes the mind boggles – both at cable content and the little asides.

So we find that one diplomat opines that on average men are likely to live longer in Russia if they are in prison and, that America locks up more people as a percentage of its own population than any other nation on earth and half of those re-offend.

Full cable transcript can be found here

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000531O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV TBIO RS
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN PRISONS
REF: A. 07 MOSCOW 4543 ¶B. MOSCOW 325 ¶C. MOSCOW 378
Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns for reason 1.4(d).
¶1. (C) Summary: The Russian prison system combines the country's emblematic features - vast distances, harsh climate, and an uncaring bureaucracy - and fuses them into a massive instrument of punishment. Russia imprisons a greater portion of its population than almost any other country in the world (second only to the U.S.). In contrast to other Western countries, the system is foremost focused on punishment, not rehabilitation, and while statisics are difficult to compare, produces a lower rate of recidivism. Recent prison riots, new prisoner shock tactics, and smuggled videos of prison mistreatment have highlighted the cruelties and corruption in the system. Health conditions in Russian prisons are poor and infection rates for contagious diseases are much higher than in the general population, but surprisingly the mortality rate for men in these prisons is only one-third the rate on the outside - a statistic that says much more about the dangers of alcoholism and road safety than it does about healthy living behind bars. Reports of abuses in the prison system have been answered with calls for reform, most recently in the Human Rights Ombudsman's annual report and by the President's Human Rights Council. While NGO activists such as the embattled Lev Ponomarev praise the work of Lukin, the insurmountable challenges posed by the physical and cultural nature of the prison system mean that efforts to improve conditions or to alter the character of the system from punishment to rehabilitation are likely to produce only superficial improvements. End summary......
¶6. (U) According to FSIN statistics, as of July, there were approximately 889,600 people in the custody of the criminal justice system, including 63,000 women and 12,100 juveniles. This rate of 630 prisoners per 100,000 citizens is second in the world only to the United States (702 per 100,000)......
¶11. (U) According to Sergeyeva, the recidivism rate in Russiais only 36 percent (compared to more than 50 percent in the United States or the United Kingdom).

The last polling I'll inflict on readers this year - I rooly trooly promise!

From the folks at Essential Research on 20^th December 2010:

Click on images to make them grow

I'm off to do a bit of camping and fishing - if I can find a dry spot to pitch the tent - see you all in February 2011.

Wikileaks - when the shoe finally drops

Ian Martin over Laberal noticed the paucity of US diplomatic cables mentioning Oz Coalition pollies:

That is now changing and it’s fitting that remarks by a former Howard Government foreign minister become some of the first to see the light of day.

The Age on 22^nd December 2010:
“THE former Howard government urged the US to force the collapse of the North Korean regime by denying it aid, despite advice the country had a growing nuclear arsenal and could unleash an artillery barrage on South Korea's capital at a moment's notice
''Let the whole place go to shit, that's the best thing that could happen,'' former foreign minister Alexander Downer told the commander of United States and United Nations forces in South Korea at a meeting in Canberra in February 2005.
A leaked US embassy cable reports that Mr Downer told General Leon LaPorte that the international community should sharply increase pressure on North Korea, suggesting that "aid that could prop up [North Korea's] failing infrastructure should be withheld in order to bring an end to the regime's tyranny''.
And, according to the cable obtained by WikiLeaks and made available exclusively to The Age, Mr Downer's ''off the top of his head'' remarks also derided the approach of New Zealand to the Korean problem.
If US officials wanted to hear the ''bleeding hearts'' view of ''peace and love'' with respect to North Korea, Mr Downer joked, they only had to visit his colleagues in New Zealand.”

Wikileaks cables: Crikey the only MSM not treating readers like mewling infants

While much of the rest of the world's media published transcripts of diplomatic cables (released to the media by Wikileaks) which were the subject of newspaper articles, Australian editors remained reluctant to publish full texts of material released to them until Crikey broke the mould.

Whether these editors thought this would increase acceptance of the journalists perspective on information contained in these cables or because they were hesitant on other grounds, as one can see from the two examples below these cables contain very little which has not been reported on in some shape or form previously and in one instance only exposes how erroneous political predictions from outsiders can be.

1074 6/10/2009 22:19 09CANBERRA545 Embassy Canberra CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN VZCZCXRO5793OO RUEHBC RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDT RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHPB RUEHPWDE RUEHBY #0524/01 1550727ZNY CCCCC ZZHO 040727Z JUN 09FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRATO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1573INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATERUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATERUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATERUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE IMMEDIATE 6392RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH IMMEDIATE 4656RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY IMMEDIATE 4617RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI IMMEDIATE 1211RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATERUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERUEKJCS/CJCS WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATERUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATERUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 0868RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0811 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 000545 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2019 TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, AS SUBJECT: GILLARD: ON TRACK TO BECOME AUSTRALIA'S NEXT PRIME MINISTER REF: A) 08 CANBERRA 609 B) CANBERRA 167 C) CANBERRA 305 Classified By: CDA Daniel A. Clune for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Described by her many supporters as "smart, tough, loyal, and the best parliamentary performer in the Australian Labor Party (ALP)," Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard - who visits Washington later this month - has positioned herself as the heir apparent to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as ALP leader (ref A). Part of Rudd's inner circle, she has handled a combined workplace relations and education portfolio with confidence and ability. Gillard has had a good year. She successfully shepherded through Parliament the Government's key workplace relations reform bill in March and she is overseeing the Government's investment in every school in Australia. Gillard, a product of the ALP Left in the state of Victoria, has shifted towards the political center since Rudd became ALP leader and is now a strong supporter of the Australia-US Alliance and Israel. Although she is still seen as a leftist by key right-wing union powerbrokers, that is not likely to stop her from succeeding Rudd as the next leader of the ALP. END SUMMARY THE GANG OF FOUR 2. (C/NF) With Treasurer Wayne Swan and Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, Gillard is part of Rudd's inner circle, a group collectively known as "the gang of four." She is a member of the National Security Committee of Cabinet and when Rudd is out of the country, or on leave, Gillard is Acting Prime Minister. Labor insiders speak admiringly of her ability to understand issues quickly and of her negotiating toughness. Unlike Rudd, however, whose brittle temperament and micromanagement have come under fire, Gillard is seen by most we've spoken with as a good manager. She oversees one of the better-managed offices in the Government and her staff seem very loyal. Conservative columnist Janet Albrechtson - no friend of the ALP - says of Gillard: "most people I've spoken to are of a firm view that Gillard is far more engaging and impressive than the dour Prime Minister." A GOOD LISTENER WITH AN EVEN DISPOSITION 3. (C/NF) Gillard listens carefully to advice. Kim Beazley, the former Defence Minister and Leader of the Labor Party, told Charge that Gillard listened intently when she met with him to learn his views on national security policy and the alliance with the U.S. The next day, Beazley recounted, he was startled to hear her in a radio interview repeating many of the things he had told her the day before. Unlike the Prime Minister and many other members of the Government, who have been criticized for occasional emotional outbursts, Gillard's demeanor is always controlled. A member of her protective detail told Charge that he was with her constantly for several months and never saw her mistreat staff or even raise her voice, rare behavior for ministers, he commented. A STAR AT QUESTION TIME 4. (C/NF) Gillard is almost unanimously viewed as the Government's best parliamentary performer. She is a superior debater to Rudd, who gets bogged down in bureaucratic jargon and tends to speak for too long. In Parliamentary Question Time, it is evident that ALP MPs enjoy hearing Gillard more than Rudd. She enjoys taunting the Opposition but, as one Qthan Rudd. She enjoys taunting the Opposition but, as one journalist noted, "the only problem is getting her off the corpse." Late last year, in a widely publicized exchange, Gillard pummeled Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (who was under pressure in a Treasury portfolio she has since relinquished). Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull later described Gillard as "very nasty" and "vicious." A visiting U.S. political scientist noted after watching Question Time that the Opposition normally heckled Government speakers but in stark contrast, they were completely silent when Gillard was on her feet. A LEFT-WINGER NOW A PRAGMATIST 5. (C/NF) Many believe that Rudd, after he became ALP leader in December 2006, did not give Gillard the Treasury portfolio (the normal portfolio for a deputy leader) because she was from the Victorian Socialist Left faction - traditionally the most radical faction in the ALP. Gillard recognizes that to become Prime Minister, she must move to the Center, and show her support for the Alliance with the United States. Albrechtson, who attended the June 2008 Australian-American Leadership Dialogue in Washington with Gillard, wrote that Gillard's speech "could have been given by the Howard Government." Last week, in a speech to the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) national conference, Gillard defended the Government's workplace relations reforms and splashed cold water on union demands for further changes. Although she was heckled by some of the attendees and publicly chided by union leaders, two former leaders of the ACTU defended Gillard's in the press and her public stance against "union radicalism" is likely to be popular with the Australian public. 6. (C/NF) The ALP Right in Gillard's home state of Victoria are not convinced that she is a transformed moderate. Some Victorian right faction members tell us they are looking for a Gillard alternative - although they admit there is no one at present. Beyond Victoria, Gillard has earned the high regard of the powerful right faction within the New South Wales ALP. ALP state secretary Matt Thistlethwaite, a key right faction powerbroker, told us June 3 that Gillard's remarkable message discipline and shrewd management of key portfolios has earned her the respect of virtually all NSW ALP members. We heard a similar message from NSW labor union contacts, who told ConGen Sydney over lunch May 20 that Gillard appears to be Rudd's heir apparent. Thistlethwaite said the NSW right faction would probably challenge Gillard if they had someone of her "caliber," but he admitted they did not. Ambitious young MPs and former Union leaders Bill Shorten and Greg Combet are routinely mentioned as possible future prime ministers, but Thistlethwaite said that neither one is in any real position to challenge Gillard. More focused on the next election, party powerbrokers have not had any serious conversations about a Rudd successor, according to Thistlethwaite. PRO-ISRAEL 7. (C/NF) Gillard has thrown off the baggage of being from what one analyst called the "notoriously anti-Israel faction" of the ALP. As Acting Prime Minister in late December 2008, Gillard was responsible for negotiating the Government's position on Israel's incursion into Gaza. Left-wing ALP MPs, a group to which Gillard used to belong, wanted her to take a harder line against Israel. Instead, she said Hamas had broken the ceasefire first by attacking Israel - a stance welcomed by Israel's supporters in Australia. MP Michael Danby, one of two Jewish members of Parliament and a strong supporter of Israel, told us that after the Gaza statement he had a new appreciation of Gillard's leadership within the ALP (ref B). Israeli Ambassador Yuval Rotem told us that Gillard has gone out of her way to build a relationship with Israel and that she asked him to arrange an early opportunity to visit. He will accompany Gillard and a delegation of Australian officials (including newly-appointed Minister Mark Arbib and Liberal Party heavyweights former Treasurer Peter Costello and Chris Pyne, Manager of Opposition Business in the House) to a meeting of the Australia-Israel Leadership Forum later this month. LABOR REFORM PASSES 8. (C/NF) On March 20, the ALP's reform of Australia's Q8. (C/NF) On March 20, the ALP's reform of Australia's workplace relations laws passed (ref C). Gillard consulted broadly with business and the unions in drafting the legislation so that when the new law was finally introduced in Parliament, there was little left for either side to criticize. When independent senators in Parliament tried to soften a pro-labor provision in the legislation, Gillard stood her ground, and forced them to back down. Her tenacity in defense of workers' rights did not go unnoticed. Right-wing ALP MP Richard Marles, a former official with the ACTU, told us recently that Gillard "hasn't put a foot wrong" since becoming Deputy Prime Minister. 9. (C/NF) Gillard also managed to win the admiration of big business in the workplace relations consultation process. Katie Lahey, CEO of the Business Council of Australia (an umbrella organization representing Australia's 100 largest firms) told Charge in March that Gillard was well respected by executives thanks to remarkable outreach and a "genuine" willingness to listen. While making her rounds with executives in the lead-up to the workplace relations law, Lahey said Gillard made you feel "as if there were nobody else in the room." Executives unsurprisingly found items in the law with which they disagreed, but broadly say that they were adequately consulted. THE EDUCATION REVOLUTION 10. (SBU) In his election campaign, Rudd promised an "education revolution," to improve education and boost productivity and international competitiveness. Despite the opposition of the teachers' unions and elements within the ALP Left, Gillard has supported a voucher system for vocational education and performance pay for teachers. She has also invited New York Education Chancellor Joel Klein to Australia. The Rudd Government's second big economic stimulus package, passed in February, provided money for infrastructure upgrades for every school, public and private, in Australia. While this funding may improve educational outcomes, the political benefit for ALP politicians will be immediate: in the next twelve months, each school will have a ceremony celebrating the investment, presided over by the local ALP politician. THE FRONT RUNNER 11. (C/NF) COMMENT: All the ALP MPs we have spoken to have enormous respect for Gillard. However, as one ALP Right MP told us, choosing a leader from the Left would be a massive cultural change for the ALP. Don Farrell, the right-wing union powerbroker from South Australia told us Gillard is "campaigning for the leadership" and at this point is the front-runner to succeed Rudd, conceding that the Right did not yet have an alternative. Agriculture Minister Tony Burke, one of the early NSW Right backers of the Rudd-Gillard team, confided that Gillard is the clear front runner to succeed Rudd and in the end, the ALP caucus will follow the opinion polls if she is the one the public wants. Two keenly anticipated books on Gillard are expected to be released within the next 12 months (one of them authored by the wife of Beazley's former Chief of Staff). At present, the question of a successor to Rudd is probably two elections away. Several Rudd confidantes have told us that Rudd appreciates Gillard and sees her as a possible PM, but that he wants to avoid anointing her to head off a possible leadership challenge when his poll numbers inevitably sag. The PM's brother Greg told us in April that Rudd wants to ensure that there are viable alternatives to Gillard within the Labor Party to forestall a challenge. Mark Arbib once told us a similar story, though he stressed that Rudd appreciates Gillard's strengths. However, another Rudd advisor told us that while the PM respects Gillard, his reluctance to share power will eventually lead to a falling out, while Gillard will not want to acquiesce in creating potential rivals. In the meantime, Gillard has proven her value to the Prime Minister and we expect her to remain the most important member of the Rudd Government, after the Prime Minister himself. CLUNE

80743 10/5/2006 7:28 06CANBERRA1574 Embassy Canberra CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN VZCZCXRO0361PP RUEHPBDE RUEHBY #1574/01 2780728ZNY CCCCC ZZHP 050728Z OCT 06FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRATO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5872INFO RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 1652RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 4760RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 3191RUEHBAD/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 1742RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 1166RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITYRHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 001574 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV, ELAB, ECON, AS SUBJECT: INTEREST RATES MORE IMPORTANT POLITICALLY THAN LABOR LAW CHANGES Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole, REASONS 1.4 (b) and ( d). SUMMARY 1. (C/NF) Interest rates will be a key political issue for the 2007 federal elections, according to a number of observers Embassy poloffs met with during a visit to Sydney. The consensus was that changes to the industrial relations laws will be at most a contributing factor. So far, the impact of the labor law changes on workers has been minimal given the strong economy and low unemployment. According to these observers, most Australian voters, thinking about their finances when they vote next year, will likely support the Coalition but they will not want the Government to continue controlling the Senate, as it does now. New South Wales (NSW) Labor Party Secretary Mark Arbib (Protect) noted that left-of-center parties have stressed a "national vision" for the future but security concerns have helped right-wing governments since 9/11. INTEREST RATES BIGGER ELECTION ISSUE THAN INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS REFORM 2. (C/NF) During a trip to Sydney September 28-29, Embassy poloffs met with Garry Brack (Protect), Chief Executive of Employers First, Mark Lennon (Protect), Assistant Secretary of the Labor Council of New South Wales, Dr. John Buchanan (Protect), Director of the Australian Centre for Industrial Relations Research and Training at the University of Sydney, and Mark Arbib (Protect), General Secretary of the New South Wales Labor Party. 3. (C/NF) Mark Lennon, deputy director for the labor-union umbrella organization in NSW, said that while the changes to the industrial relations laws were a key issue for organized labor, the voters would be focused on the pocketbook when they voted next year — and the key issue for them was interest rates. Given the large mortgages needed to buy the expensive real estate in Sydney, and the fact that most loans had adjustable interest rates, a rise in rates affected most voters' disposable income. Many voters were chary of Coalition Senate control, Lennon also maintained. With a healthy economy and stable interest rates they would keep the Government in power in the House but were less likely to vote for Coalition senators. POST-9/11 SECURITY CONCERNS HAVE HELPED RIGHT WING PARTIES 4. (C/NF) Arbib echoed Lennon's sentiments on interest rates, noting that during the 2004 election campaign, PM Howard's standing in the polls always increased when he focused on interest rates, and conversely, decreased when he changed the subject. Not only does the strong economy help the Coalition, Arbib said, but post-9/11 security concerns were another factor. Left-of-center governments need to articulate a vision for the future, and unless Australia invests in its future it will only be a "quarry for the Chinese and a tourist destination for the Japanese." However, Arbib continued, the immediate issues for every voter are the economy and security, and the Howard Government currently holds the advantage on both. It will be a tough struggle for the Labor Party (ALP) to win the federal elections in 2007, Arbib admitted, but the ALP has a stronger team of young leaders coming up through the political system and he was confident for the future. 5. (C/NF) Arbib said Kim Beazley, because he was the opposite of the volatile Mark Latham, was the right man to lead the ALP at the present time. Arbib noted that the March 2007 state elections in NSW would be tough for the ALP. They had been in power for 12 years and were having some problems but the Opposition leader was inexperienced and not yet ready to challenge for the leadership. Coalition control of the Federal Government and ALP control of the states and territories was accentuated by the fact that the best Coalition political operatives gravitated toward Canberra, where they could get better jobs working at the national level. The best jobs for the good ALP politicians and staffers were in the state governments, which the ALP run. 6. (BIO NOTE: Young, dynamic and friendly, Arbib is reputed to be the leader of the right wing of the ALP (traditionally centered in NSW) and the one who chose Beazley to be the ALP CANBERRA 00001574 002 OF 002 leader after Latham. He also told us that he, unlike Beazley, supported Iraq as well as the war on terrorism in general.) WITH A STRONG ECONOMY, WAGES INCREASE DESPITE NEW LABOR LAWS 7. (C/NF) Employer representative Brack explained that under the old awards system of industrial relations, an "award" issued by the Australian Industrial Relations Commission in response to a labor dispute increased compensation and benefits for a particular industry. That award would then provide the benchmark that would increase wages and benefits in other industries throughout the economy. This made it impossible for businesses to control labor costs and compete internationally, Brack said. 8. (C/NF) While the reforms instituted by the Howard Government in 1996 and amended in 2005 have provided more job-market flexibility and ended the steady increases in wages and benefits, the reforms have had little impact, Brack pointed out. With a growing economy and essentially full employment, the tight job market is continuing to push salaries higher. Employers are most concerned with keeping their skilled employees. In addition, Brack noted, many employees are covered by awards or state compensation laws that pre-dated the 2005 workplace law and have not yet expired. 9. (C/NF) Dr. Buchanan, whose research institute has done a number of studies on the new workplace relations laws, said that strikes were much harder to mount under the new laws and the unions had lost bargaining power. Skilled employees would be less affected by the changes than the 20 percent of workers at the bottom, who would lose many of their protections. Under the old awards system, this 20 percent was paid relatively well, forcing employers to use fewer workers more efficiently. Buchanan noted that New Zealand and the states of Victoria and Western Australia had undertaken similar reforms that dismantled industry-wide guarantees in favor of individual agreements and a few statutory minimum conditions. The result has been the growth of low-paying jobs and greater wage inequality, especially for women, young people and low-skilled employees. 10. (C/NF) The new industrial relations laws — designed to give employers the ability to hire a more flexible workforce to compete internationally — may be partially responsible for the fact that unemployment is at the lowest level in 30 years (4.9 percent). As Buchanan noted, under the old system employers had to pay their less-skilled workers relatively well, so they hired fewer. His fear — and perhaps a fear of many Australians — is that employers may now be able to create a class of so-called Walmart employees in Australia. COMMENT 11. (C/NF) The economy and security appear to remain the issues over which the elections will be fought next year. The observers we spoke with stressed that PM Howard is a master politician who will lay claim to the country's current prosperity and keep interest rates lower than a Labor government would be able to do. He will also be a formidable campaigner in the fight to convince the electorate which party can best deliver on national security. OWENS