Turnbull & Co have to make up a lot of ground six months out from the start of the federal general election countdown

According to Newspoll Malcolm Bligh Turnbull commenced the new year with only 31 per cent of the population approving of his performance as prime minister and only 35 per cent of voters willing to give his government first preference at the next federal election.

An election which is due to be called sometime between 4 August 2018 and 18 May 2019.

As for the swing against the Turnbull Government in mainland states………

The Australian, 26 December 2017:

The Coalition has suffered a two-point fall in its two-party-preferred vote in the five mainland state capital cities since September to trail Labor 55-45.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor leads 55-45 in Queensland, 54-46 in NSW and Victoria and 53-47 in both South Australia and Western Australia. This represents a 4 per cent swing nationally to Labor, which, if ­repeated at the next election, could result in the loss of between 20 and 30 seats for the Liberal and Nationals parties.

The final Newspoll analysis of the year threatens to dampen the buoyancy in the Coalition parties that flowed from Mr Turnbull ­finishing the year achieving victories in two by-elections triggered by the High Court ruling on dual citizenship and claiming the scalp of disgraced Labor senator Sam Dastyari as it pursued popular new laws to curb foreign interference and influence.

No Christmas gift for Turnbull Government from Newspoll and nothing under the tree for most of us

There were definitely no bright shiny ribbons on this Lib-Nats Christmas box as Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Bligh Turnbull, along with his ministers, senators and MPs, trailed in the 25th consecutive Newspoll.

In Daily, 18 December 2017:

Labor leads the Coalition by 53 per cent to 47, representing a national swing against the government of three per cent.

The poll of 1669 voters across the country, conducted for The Australian over the weekend, shows the Coalition has made no ground in the past two weeks with Labor maintaining a one-point primary vote lead of 37.

Nor was there a Christmas gift for average Australian families in this little budgetary effort by Messrs. Turnbull, Morrison and Cormann set out below.

Because the bottom line is that:
wages growth is expected to remain low; 
the national unemployment rate isn't predicted to fall below 5.25% in the foreseeable future; 
there are additional funding cuts in education;
so-called debt recovery from welfare recipients will continue with enhancements;
reductions in certain types of welfare payment also continue apace; 
tha taxation system remains skewed against ordinaty workers AND 
government gross debt continues to grow across the forward estimates while government revenue growth is somewhat subdued.

There is also no Treasury forecast that Morrison's promiseded 2020-21 $23 billion reduction of the 2018-19 projected $591 billion total gross government debt will actually happen.

Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) 2017-18 Australia by clarencegirl on Scribd

https://www.scribd.com/document/367416218/Mid-Year-Economic-Fiscal-Outlook-MYEFO-2017-18-Australia

Polls are still not looking good for Turnbull Government as November draws to a close

Essential Report, 28 November 2017. This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from 24th to 27th November 2017 and is based on 1,021 respondents.

Deputy Prime Minister & Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce in real trouble in his own electorate?

This is allegedly a genuine National Party of Australia document. However, to the chagrin of many it has been revealed to be a fake.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DMs2L-vUIAALcUZ?format=jpg&name=large

Leaving aside the fake poll, the truth is that it is not just Barnaby Joyce's inappropriate dual citizenship which is a problem.

There is another issue which is not being denied at this stage......

According to News Corps’ Herald Sun on 21 October 2017:

Colleagues have told the Herald Sun they are worried the public figure has been punted out of the family home, which doesn’t exactly coincide with their, er, political beliefs.

The late-night office grappling is believed to have been going on for at least eight months and is an open secret in political circles. One minister was heard exclaiming they couldn’t believe it hadn’t leaked out yet.

Polling numbers not looking good for Turnbull Government as regional Australia loses patience

The Australian, 9 October 2017:

The quarterly Newspoll analysis, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor continues to lead the Coalition by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms, holding the same advantage for three consecutive quarters this year.

In a shock result for the government in one of its key constituencies, the Coalition’s primary vote among voters outside the five capital cities fell from 36 to 34 per cent over the three months to the end of September.

The outcome is the government’s lowest result in regional Australia since it secured a narrow election victory last year with a 44 per cent primary vote outside the capitals, 10 percentage points higher than the new polling.

In a dramatic turnaround, Labor now has stronger core support than the Coalition among voters outside the capital cities, with its primary vote rising from 34 to 36 per cent over the quarter.

The outcome raises questions about the performance of the Nationals and country Liberals in shoring up support when the government’s fate could hinge on a handful of regional electorates in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

This is the first time Labor has taken the lead over the Coalition among regional and rural voters since last year’s election, when its primary vote outside the capital cities was only 30.8 per cent……

The survey of 9889 voters from July to September combines results from Newspolls conducted over the quarter, smoothing out short-term movements and resulting in a smaller margin of error of 1 per cent for national results.

While the Newspoll published on September 25 showed the government had seen a small slip in its support over three weeks, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms, the quarterly analysis shows an overall trend of 47 to 53 per cent in two-party terms throughout this year……

The government lags Labor in two-party terms in each state in the Newspoll analysis, ranging from a 47-53 result in Western Australia and Victoria to a 46-54 gap in Queensland and a 45-55 result in South Australia. The government improved its fortunes in NSW, narrowing the gap against Labor from 47-53 to 48-52 in two-party-preferred terms from one quarter to the next, and saw a similar one-point gain in South Australia while suffering a one-point decline in Queensland.

The Liberal Party is facing some of its toughest battles in seats outside the big cities, including the regional Victorian seat of Corangamite held by Sarah Henderson, the NSW south coast seat of Gilmore held by Ann Sudmalis, the NSW central coast seat of Robertson held by Lucy Wicks, and the northern Queensland seat of Leichhardt held by retiring Warren Entsch.

The Nationals are also under pressure in traditional strongholds including the NSW north coast seat of Page held by Kevin Hogan and the Queensland seat of Capricornia held by Michelle Landry. [my yellow highlighting]

Australian Bureau of Statistics has carriage of the national voluntary same-sex marriage postal survey - a visual answer to the question "What could possibly go wrong?"

Images of just some instances highlighting predictable issues concerning the Turnbull Government’s national same-sex marriage voluntary postal survey……..

Kerry Ford found 17 marriage equality postal votes dumped in her garden. Photo: Joe Armao

Three letters with the voting forms missing had been dumped in Murrumbeena, in Melbourne's south-east

A bag filled with 39 same-sex marriage postal survey envelopes addressed to Sydney residents minus 

survey forms & return envelopes was found in a local bin

Same-sex marriage surveys found dumped in Melbourne's CBD. Photo: Supplied

PHOTO: Derek has missed out on his chance to have a say in the same-sex marriage survey. 

(ABC News: Tom Lowrey)

Looks like I’m voting yes 4 times! Could be more will see if anymore come tomorrow!

PHOTOs: Dozens of surveys were spotted out of mailboxes at seven different apartment blocks on Saturday morning.

 (ABC News: James Fettes)

Got 4 other people's surveys today, despite them living 3 blocks away from me.

Image: Simon Thomsen.

PHOTO: The ABC tested the torch light theory and found it worked. (ABC News)

Up to 30 postal survey forms have been removed from online auction sites

Newcastle social media marketplace

ABS forced to apologise when some survey form barcodes contained inappropriate words

Facebook 22 September 2017

Discarded postal survey letters on roadways in Brisbane and elsewhere 

But wait, there’s more…….

“So this is what my Aunty did today. #VOTENO or she’ll steal your mail.”

There were 16.0 million electors on the Commonwealth Electoral Roll as of 30 August 2017,

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics by 29 September 2017 only est. 9.2 million of these people had returned a completed voluntary same-sex marriage postal survey form.

Another 13.6 million completed and returned forms would see a survey response rate no politician would dare argue with if he or she hoped to keep their seat at the next federal election.

If over 90 per cent of enrolled electors could turn out to vote for a national song in 1977, surely just as many could get their finger out in 2017 and answer one simple question: "Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?"

The same-sex marriage survey closes in 30 days time at 6pm local time on Tuesday, 7 November 2017. Survey forms received by the Australian Bureau of Statistics after this will not be counted in official results.

Marriage Equality and levels of community support

The Guardian, 21 August 2017:

A majority of Australians favour changing the law to allow same-sex couples to marry and over 80% of respondents also plan to vote in the looming postal survey, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

The latest weekly survey of 1,817 voters found that 57% of the sample favours a change to the law to allow marriage equality, with 32% against and 11% saying they don’t know.

People most supportive of the change are Labor voters (71%), Greens voters (69%), women (65%) and voters aged between 18-34 (65%).

Asked about the likelihood of voting in the non-compulsory postal ballot, 63% said they would definitely vote, 18% said they would probably vote, 4% said they would probably not vote and 6% said they would definitely not vote – with 9% unsure.

Yes voters are more likely to participate than no voters. Seventy-four per cent of those in favour of same-sex marriage will definitely vote compared with 58% of those opposed.

Close to 90% of respondents (88%) said they were enrolled to vote at their current address, while 7% said they weren’t and 5% were unsure. Supporters of same-sex marriage are a bit more likely to be enrolled than those who are opposed (92% compared with 86%).

The ballot itself remains deeply contentious, with 49% of the sample disapproving of it and 39% approving. The postal ballot has become more unpopular since marriage equality advocates confirmed they would challenge it in the high court.

NOTE:

Challenges to the voluntary postal survey were dismissed by the High Court of Australia on 7 September 2017.

Is the self-inflicted reputational loss suffered by the Australian Bureau of Statistics having a negative impact on the same-sex marriage voluntary postal survey?

 “An Australian Marriage Law Survey Form will be sent by post to every eligible Australian. It will be sent to the address on the Commonwealth Electoral Roll.” [www.abs.gov.au, 8 September 2017]

A reader recently contacted North Coast Voices stating that:

“Two weeks ago I rang the ABS to ask whether I could send my marked postal survey back to them in a plain envelope because as I said to them, I don't trust them. They told me that my survey form would not be counted. I also spoke to my Federal Parliamentarian about this.”

I suspect that this question has been asked a number of times by concerned citizens.

Which raises a question - Is the self-inflicted reputational loss suffered by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2016 having a negative impact on the same-sex marriage voluntary postal survey?

The Bureau declares that survey respondents will have their privacy protected and that no-one will be able to identify an individual with their response on the survey form.

However, these survey forms come with a barcode which apparently identifies Commonwealth Electoral Roll eligibility of the recipient and the electoral division in which an individual lives.

So a plain envelope return of the survey form will not hide the survey respondent's identity.

The Bureau has anticipated widespread mistrust in its ability to conduct this national survey without a monumental blunder à la Census 2016. 

Accoding to its website a survey response will be considered invalid if; The printed barcode on the form is missing or altered.

It seems the only individuals with some form of privacy protection are those who are registered as ‘silent voters’ on the electoral roll - they at least will allegedly have their residential address hidden from the ABS and survey forms mailed out by the Australian Electoral Commission in an AEC envelope.

Mocking ACL's Lyle Shelton and parodying anti-same sex marriage advertising is about to reach peak viral

Here are the latest in my timeline – enjoy!

Concerned mums.
My @smh cartoon. pic.twitter.com/UfCisZmN6W

— The Cathy Wilcox (@cathywilcox1) August 30, 2017

The Australian Lapsed Catholic Lobby reveals the truth about Marriage Equality— pic.twitter.com/LFtaQB45tB

— Dan Ilić  (@danilic) September 1, 2017

Boo chicken little! pic.twitter.com/TmMboUTWMw

— Geoff Koop (@GeoffKoop) August 22, 2017

So you held out a hope that the Turnbull Government's use of the SSM postal survey results would be straightforward?

The forthcoming Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey will contain one clearly worded question: “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”

This question can be answered “Yes” or “No” by those Australian citizens on the Commonwealth Electoral Roll who choose to participate.

The Turnbull Government has stated that a simple majority survey result will mean that legislation legalising same-sex marriage will be introduced in the federal parliament.

However, the vote of government senators and MPs will not be bound by the results of this survey – their vote on this legislation is a ‘free’ vote.

Almost sounds kosher, doesn’t it?

Ah, but this is a government full of far-right warriors determined to protect a ‘superior’ white Christian culture which has only ever really existed in their own minds and the minds of their fellow travellers.

So the Australian Bureau of Statistics website carries this information concerning the postal survey:

Readers will notice that survey results will be broken down by age and gender and, more importantly, by state or territory and federal electorates.

Call me cynical, but these demographic groupings will allow both the Turnbull Cabinet and all government senators and MPs to decide if survey participation in their own Liberal and National Party seats was either high enough or low enough for them to risk voting against same-sex marriage legislation and yet still have a chance of retaining their Senate or House of Representatives seats (as well as those generous parliamentary incomes & entitlements) in 2018.

So for those living in the federal electorates of Aston, Banks, Barker, Bennelong, Berowra, Bonner, Boothby, Bowman, Bradfield, Brisbane, Calare, Canning, Capricornia, Casey, Chisholm, Cook, Corangamite, Cowper, Curtin, Dawson, Deakin, Dickson, Dunkley, Durack, Fadden, Fairfax, Farrer, Fisher, Flinders, Flynn, Forde, Forrest, Gilmore, Gippsland, Goldstein, Grey, Groom, Hasluck, Higgins, Hinkler, Hughes, Hume, Kooyong, La Trobe, Leichardt, Lyne, Mackellar, Mallee, Maranoa, McMillan, McPherson, Menzies, Mitchell, Moncrieff, Moore, Murray, New England, North Sydney, O’Connor, Page, Parkes, Pearce, Petrie, Reid, Riverina, Robertson, Ryan, Stirling, Stuart, Swan, Tangney, Wannon, Warringah, Wentworth, Wide Bay, and Wright – your “Yes” or “No”  is probably going to count much more to these 76 Coalition MPs than those of everyone else.

Because the likes of Tony Abbott MP for Warringah, Kevin Andrews MP for Menzies and Andrew Hastie MP for Canning are only going to be swayed by what they perceive as their own self-interest.

For them it has never been about an individual's dignity, human rights or equality.

Things are crook at Tallarook for the Turnbull Government in August 2017

@LesStonehouse

On 21 August 2017 The Australian published the 18^th Newspoll in a row with negative numbers for the Coalition Federal Government:

The Turnbull government has taken a battering after a week of turmoil over the citizenship of key ministers, with the Coalition trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in another brutal verdict from voters.

Labor has climbed to its strongest primary vote this year, with its core support at 38 per cent, giving it a convincing lead that would see it form government with a gain of 20 seats if the trend held at the next federal election.

The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the government’s primary vote has fallen from 36 to 35 per cent over the past two weeks, amid internal rows over same-sex ­marriage and the storm over the foreign citizenship of three cabinet ministers.

Malcolm Turnbull has lost ground to Bill Shorten in his personal standing with Australians but has held his lead as preferred prime minister, favoured by 43 per cent of voters compared with 33 per cent who prefer the Oppos­ition Leader…..

The combined effect has widened Labor’s lead to 54 per cent to 46 per cent in two-party terms, a swing of more than 4 per cent against the government since the election in July last year….

The Newspoll survey of 1675 respond­ents, conducted from Thursday to yesterday, saw most of the results move within the margin of error of 2.4 percentage points, except for the fall in Mr Turnbull’s rating as better prime minister and the greater dissatisfaction with both leaders.

This is the 18th consecutive Newspoll in which the Coalition has trailed Labor in two-party terms, a tally that is now used against Mr Turnbull by his critics because he cited the loss of “30 Newspolls in a row” as a reason for challenging Tony Abbott in September 2015.

The swing against the government, if repeated in a uniform fashion at the next election, would lead to the loss of about 20 seats — eight in Queensland, four in Victoria, four in NSW, one in South Australia and three in Western Australia.

Mr Turnbull has retained his lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister but the gap between­ the two has narrowed.

Voters cut their support for Mr Turnbull as better prime minister from 46 to 43 per cent, while increasing­ their support for Mr Shorten from 31 to 33 per cent.

The proportion of voters who were “uncommitted” increased from 23 to 24 per cent.

As a result, Mr Turnbull is now 10 points ahead of Mr Shorten on this measure, compared with a lead of 15 percentage points two weeks ago.

Primary vote

If the federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If uncommitted, to which one of these do you have a leaning?

Two-party preferred

Based on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.

Leaders' net satisfaction

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Prime Minister is doing his job? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Leader of the Opposition is doing his job?

If an Australian federal election was held today......

The sixteenth consecutive Newspoll shows the Labor Party leading the Liberal-Nationals Coalition.

This time by 53 to 47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis calculated on the preference flow at the July 2016 federal election.

The primary vote in this latest poll was: Coalition 36​ (​+1) Labor 37 (+1) Greens 9 (-1) One Nation 9​ (-2) Others 9 (+1)

The survey of 1,677 voters, taken between Thursday 20 July and Sunday 23 July 2017, has a margin of error of 2.4 per cent.

As the two party preferred percentages for Labor and the Coalition have remained unchanged for the last five Newspolls this is what the Australian Parliament might look like:

Swing percentage is based on most recent data from Newspoll on a two party preferred basis

and represents changes in seats for the Coalition and Labor Party only. Data source: Newspoll
The Australian, online, 23 July 2017

June 2017 and another disappointing Newspoll for Turnbull & Co

Political strategists in both the Liberal and National parties must be wondering what else they can possibly do to swing opinion polls in the Coalition's favour.

Terrafret isn’t working its magic as strongly as before, welfare bashing no longer draws the big crowds and, budget measures can’t disguise the general lack of policy direction.

The Australian, 26 June 2017:

The survey of 6843 voters from April to June shows Labor has a commanding lead over the ­Coalition of 53 per cent to 47 per cent in two-party terms at a ­national level and in every state except South Australia, where it has an even bigger advantage……

Support for Labor has increased from 39 to 42 per cent in Western Australia on first preferences in the past quarter, adding to a trend over the past year to make this one of Labor’s strongest states, compared to being one of the weakest at the last election.

While Labor’s primary-vote support in WA has surged almost 10 percentage points since the July election, the Coalition’s support has fallen by nine percentage points to 40 per cent……

The Coalition’s primary vote in Queensland has fallen from 43.2 per cent at the last election to 33 per cent in the quarterly Newspoll survey, the biggest slump in any state for the government.

While Queensland voters shifted against the government in the six months after the election, the Coalition’s support in South Australia remained steady until ­December and then fell from 35 to 29 per cent in primary terms……

The rise of One Nation has eroded the Coalition’s support in most states while Labor has tended to hold ground or slightly increase its appeal in each battleground, with its primary vote rising from 34.7 per cent at the election to 36 per cent in this quarterly Newspoll, unchanged from the previous three months…..

SENSIS: small business support for Federal Government lowest under Turnbull at -2 points

Medianet Release
28 Apr 2017 5:00 AM AEST - Business support for Federal Government now negative; lowest under Turnbull Business support for Federal Government now negative; lowest under Turnbull 28 April 2017: Support for the Federal Government among small and medium businesses (SMBs) has fallen into negative territory and to the lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull took over as Prime Minister, according to the latest Sensis Business Index (SBI) survey. The net balance fell four points this quarter (+2 to -2). This score is calculated by comparing the number of SMBs that feel supported by the Federal Government's policies (14%) to the number that do not feel supported (16%). Sensis Chief Executive Officer, John Allan said: "After Malcolm Turnbull took over as Prime Minister in 2015 we saw confidence in the Government rise, with businesses telling us they were optimistic about the change." "Since then the Government's approval rating has fallen nine points and is 20 points lower than the highest score we saw under Tony Abbott, following the pro-business Federal budget of 2015. To find a lower score we need to go back to the March 2015 survey, which was taken after Tony Abbott had survived a leadership spill. "While perceptions of the economy remain strong, less than one in seven businesses have faith in the Government's policies, with the biggest concerns being excessive bureaucracy and red tape, as well as there being too much of a focus on the interests of big business," he said. The Index, which reflects the views of 1,000 small and medium businesses from across Australia, also revealed that despite a tough quarter for the Government the long term projections for the economy have improved to their best level in 2 ½ years. "Perceptions of the current state of the economy fell slightly, but when we look further ahead businesses are feeling the most optimistic they have been since the carbon tax was repealed in 2014," said Mr Allan. The net balance score for current perceptions of the economy now sits at +2, while the expectation for the economy in a year's time have risen to +10. "When we look at the key indicators, sales, employment, wages and prices are all positive, while profitability has also improved, despite still recording a negative score. When you mix these results with the fact that business confidence remains at one of the best levels we've seen in the past seven years, it's not surprising to see the long term economic sentiment improve," said Mr Allan. "Businesses are expecting a solid increase in prices this quarter, which may give inflation a push, helping the Reserve Bank to justify a rate hike at a time when everyone is keenly watching their every move." In terms of business confidence there was a two point fall nationally, with the score now sitting on +44, which is the second best result since March 2010. Across the states and territories only ACT, Tasmanian, Queensland and NT businesses became more confident, while WA businesses maintained their score, and the other state and territories went backwards. "The results were fairly flat this quarter, although the ACT saw an 18 point spike and now sits in top spot – driven by strong sales results – in the first full survey taken since the ACT election," said Mr Allan. "In a sign of what was to come, the WA Government's score fell as it headed towards the election loss, with SMBs reporting concerns the Government was too focussed on the interests of big business." At an industry level there were mixed results in terms of business confidence, with seven out of 10 industries going backwards this quarter. The three sectors that improved were Health and Community Services; Building and Construction; and Retail Trade. "We saw big declines in confidence in the manufacturing and hospitality sectors this quarter driven by poor sales results, with manufacturing really struggling compared to the other industries. Fortunately, expectations are for an improvement in sales this quarter," said Mr Allan. Comparing metro and regional results, there was little change this quarter, with metropolitan businesses again more confident, now by a slightly reduced margin of seven points (+47 vs +40). "Overall more businesses in the capital cities are feeling confident and it comes down to their perceptions of the economy. They believe the economy is travelling well, whereas more regional business owners feel pessimistic," said Mr Allan. -ENDS-The full report and video summarising the report are available at www.sensis.com.au/SBI Video grabs featuring Sensis CEO John Allan analysing the ACT results available for download here: https://sensis.digitalpigeon.com/msg/1Wv_ACWcEeenOAbiYUDn_w/WfRJlMqk47dGegIW8suYSw Images and infographics available for download here: https://sensis.digitalpigeon.com/msg/rlpf0CY1EeebnAYtQsGbAw/WfRJlMqk47dGegIW8suYSw Distributed by AAP Medianet JN#:877823
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