The path down which Tony Abbott so recklessly trod

The Daily Telegraph political cartoonist Warren Brown 

 Part One: Team Abbott

The Guardian 8 February 2015:

Team Abbott sailed to victory, extraordinary gusts of hubris filling their sails. If opposition had been conducted within the confines of a box, the prime ministership was to become a fortress. The victors disdained the cultural moment and thumbed their noses at the zeitgeist with a towering kind of arrogance.

The coterie around the prime minister brought their conflict addiction, their brittle tribalism and their self-reinforcing insularity into government. The prime minister’s chief of staff stood sentry at the door, and the prime minister wanted the security blanket of the old rituals, like an elite sportsman insisting on his lucky socks.

Abbott then insisted that the entire government cede its freedom just as quiescently as he had. The culture of freedom and managed dissent in the Liberal party was to be replaced with command and control from his office. The Abbott cabinet lacked the talent and firepower of the Howard cabinet, and Abbott lacked the finesse and accumulated wisdom of Howard – so perhaps this was a gesture of insurance more than an outburst of gratuitous authoritarianism. But talent within government ranks did exist. It was just banished to the bleachers if it was mouthy. It wasn’t just ministers. Friends and confidants had the door closed in their face if the feedback was unpalatable.

The backbiting began almost immediately. The take-no-prisoners culture imposed inside the government created the bizarre cult of Peta Credlin, which was both vexed reality and collective mythology. The “witch in the office” began to loom larger than ministers, and project as a proxy for the prime minister rather than a conduit. The prime minister was rendered a sock puppet, and consented to his diminution.

Politics has a high tolerance for bastardry as long as the strategy is working. But the edifice began crumbling very slowly right from the start. The whole enterprise felt strangely vacant and unconvincing.

There was no real clean break, no fresh start. How could there be? Abbott began his life as prime minister knee deep in the wreckage he’d imposed on the polity. All the things to resent about politics since 2010 were not past tense because one of the main protagonists was still on his feet. Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard had faded, sensibly, into history.

Abbott has always been a contrary figure, a complex person, and his stock in trade, aggressive simplicity, could only resonate when it was delivered in broad brushstrokes. The devil was always going to be in the detail. The basic contradictions started early. The man who’d elevated trust and competence to moral imperatives in national politics quickly proved himself neither trustworthy nor particularly competent. Small-target politics in opposition was replaced by an agenda the voters didn’t expect, and then Abbott blamed onlookers for failing to read the tea leaves.

At budget time the new Coalition government unleashed an ambitious referendum. Would we tolerate a society that was less fair? This was not supposed to be a surprise because Joe Hockey once made a speech about ending the age of entitlement. The answer to the question was a resounding no. Again, very little made sense. Low and middle-income earners copped the pain disproportionately, only to see savings spent on thought bubble priorities rather than directed to repairing the deficit. How could a genuine budget emergency produce net savings of only $3bn over four years? It was bollocks, and the voters knew it.

The agenda in Abbottland whipped around in the prevailing wind. Abbott didn’t know if he was freedom Tony, or security Tony, or austerity Tony, or double the deficit Tony. The treasurer thought poor people didn’t drive cars and high-income earners paid half their income in tax. Apart from gaffes and thought bubbles and brain explosions, there was a basic and persistent level of identity confusion.

In government, Abbott had relished the daily combat but his officials complained he wasn’t enamoured by detailed policy work. Government can’t just be a culture war, a raised fist against modernity, it requires focus and direction. It requires an intellectual core. Rather than soothing persistent anxiety in the community, Abbott heaped on the surprises to the point where it was impossible to define the government’s character. What was Abbott’s core? Why does Tony Abbott want to be prime minister? It is entirely unclear. Does he even want to be prime minister? That is also, sometimes, unclear.

Looking through the self-interested anecdotes various protagonists are feeding to journalists in order to deepen this current crisis in order to force a resolution, understanding that in a leadership crisis everybody lies and everything is quicksand – the simple facts are Abbott’s leadership is on death watch because he has lost, comprehensively, in the court of public opinion.

Full article here.

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Part Two: Fiscal Frolics

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT GENERAL GOVERNMENT SECTOR MONTHLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS December 2014

Crikey 3 February 2015:

The Coalition that promised in 2012 to reduce Australia's debt by $30 billion delivered in 2014 an increase of more than $60 billion. Clearly Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Treasurer Joe Hockey have failed spectacularly to reduce Labor's "skyrocketing debt".

Outcomes for the full calendar year 2014 are now online at the Finance Department's website. Commonwealth monthly financial statements show year-to-date net debt and the projection for the full financial year. Hence it is simple to calculate the debt incurred — or repaid — each month.

Australia's net government debt — that is, money borrowed minus money loaned out — was $239.16 billion at the end of December. This was a hefty increase over the level a month earlier of $224.35 billion. In just one month, the debt rose almost $15 billion, or 6.6%. Compounded, that rate would double the debt in less than a year. Fortunately, the December rise was abnormal.

So what was the full-year increase through 2014?

At the end of 2013, the actual net debt was $177.74 billion. Hence the increase over the full year was $61.42 billion ($239.16 - $177.74). That's a rise of 34.6%.

That December 2013 actual figure is pretty close to the level that can reasonably be attributed to Labor. As Crikey explained last October, the best measure of Labor's debt is the projection for the end of the full year 2013-14 at the September 2013 election. At that time, projected debt at year end was $178.1 billion, although actual debt then was marginally lower. That year-end projection of $178.1 billion was affirmed in Finance's statements for October and November 2013. It did not shift until well after Joe Hockey had taken control of the levers.

So is it possible that debt has peaked and will soon tumble, as promised? No — Friday's figures also show a higher estimate for total debt at year end, still six months away. This is now projected to be $244.84 billion.

If $178.1 billion is the debt level attributable to Labor, then it can be argued that by the end of this financial year the Coalition will have blown out Labor's debt by $66.7 billion ($244.8 billion to $178.1 billion) or 37.5%. In one budget.

Full article here.

The Peril Of Intergenerational Theft

In his speech to the Press Club on 2nd February, Tony Abbott once again called up the spectre of intergenerational theft:

And reducing the deficit is the fair thing to do – because it ends the intergenerational theft against our children and grandchildren.

We’ve never been a country that’s ripped off future generations to pay for today.

And under my government, we never will.

http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2015/02/02/prime-minister-address-national-press-club

"Intergenerational theft" has been a catchcry of the Prime Minister and other ministers such as Joe Hockey and Eric Abetz.  It has invariably been used in defence of the Government's budget and its cost-cutting measures.  According to them we should suffer some pain now in order to leave the nation in a sound state for our children and grandchildren.

On one level this seems eminently commendable.  But it completely misses the point of another area of government policy where today's Government is severely ripping off future generations. Our children and grandchildren and their descendants are being ripped off because of the Government's tepid and ineffective policy on climate change.  There is no Government understanding of a need for urgent action and of the impact ineffective action now will have on the economy of the future and the health and lifestyle of our descendants as well as the health of the natural world.

And the truly amazing thing is that no-one in the Government seems to recognise the inconsistency of their position on inter-generational theft.  A cynical person could claim that at least some Government MPs do see this inconsistency – and just choose to ignore it. After all it would be decidedly awkward to concede that climate change is a really important and urgent issue and therefore know that not taking effective action will severely penalise future generations.  It's much easier to pay lip-service to the climate problem with a shonky "direct action" plan and to claim that the government will do more when other major emitters take more action.  Interestingly, the fact that many other major emitters are starting to take more action appears to have escaped the attention of the Abbott Government.

Obviously the Government's tepid climate policy suits those dinosaur Liberals and Nationals – and there appear to be quite a few of them - who are climate change deniers.

I suspect that the inconsistency about intergenerational equity/theft probably is seen by very few, if any, government MPs. After all, many of them still don't seem to understand that a great number of people oppose their budget because it is inherently unfair – that it places all of the pain on the less well-off in our society. The Prime Minister, the Treasurer and many others just don't get it.  Many Coalition MPs still seem to believe that the policies can be delivered if they improve their communication strategy. In their self-centred view those benighted electors just don't understand.  In reality very large numbers of electors understand only too well.

The core of their problem is that they are out of touch with ordinary Australians.  They are purblind inhabitants of a series of ivory towers.

Until the Government starts to take effective action on climate change, it should stop using the argument of intergenerational theft to justify other aspects of policy.  That would eliminate one of the areas in which it renders itself ridiculous.

Hildegard

Northern Rivers

*  Guest Speak is a North Coast Voices segment allowing serious or satirical comment from NSW Northern Rivers residents. Email ncvguestpeak at gmail dot com dot au to submit comment for consideration.

Tony Abbott: from political rooster to feather duster in seventeen months?

Tony Abbott during his unsuccessful bid to rally backbenchers & voters behind him

National Press Council Address

2 February 2015 

The anglophile who only became an Australian citizen for personal financial advantage, the aggressive bully who thought his divine destiny was to rule the country, the intellectual lightweight who believes good policy is a quiverful of three-word slogans, the man whose sense of entitlement has him dipping his hand deep into the taxpayer's pocket, the right wing ideologue without a decent bone in his body, the sole author of his own misfortune  - has Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott  finally morphed into a political feather duster?

West Australian Liberal MP for Cowan, LukeSimpkin, signalling the party leadership spill scheduled for 10 February 2015:

@latikambourke, 6 February 2015

The Daily Telegraph, 6 February 2015:

An angry Mr Abbott yesterday called a press conference to stare down his backbench, before sending out cabinet ministers to back his leadership publicly.

Tony Abbott’s Press Statement, 6 February 2015:

As you know, two of my colleagues have called for a leadership spill of the two senior positions in our Party. They’ve called for a spill of my position as leader and they’ve called for a spill of Julie Bishop’s position as Deputy.
The first point to make is that they are perfectly entitled to call for this, but the next point to make is that they are asking the Party Room to vote out the people that the electorate voted in in September 2013.
I want to make this very simple point: we are not the Labor Party. We are not the Labor Party and we are not going to repeat the chaos and the instability of the Labor years.
So, I have spoken to Deputy Leader Julie Bishop and we will stand together in urging the Party Room to defeat this particular motion, and in so doing, and in defeating this motion to vote in favour of the stability and the team that the people voted for at the election.
We have a strong plan. It’s the strong plan that I enunciated at the Press Club this week and we are determined to get on with it – and we will.

Julie Bishop's position as deputy leader of the parliamentary Liberal Party will also fall vacant if the spill motion is successful.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 February 2015:

On Friday evening, after a spill motion to oust the Prime Minister was moved, Channel Nine's political editor Laurie Oakes reported the Prime Minister's office "was so concerned about the optics of them appearing together looking like a unity ticket", it asked Ms Bishop to cancel her attendance at the fundraiser with Mr Turnbull but she refused.

UPDATE

Abbott blinks?

Quotes of the Week

“it’s a classic example of what goes wrong when, in a fit of absent-mindedness, people elect Labor governments.”

[Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott during 2 February 2015 National Press Club question period on the reason voters reject his political party]

Abbott over-reached when telling his audience that removing a Prime Minister is the preserve of the public come election time.

Party room colleagues who take pride in their right to cast a vote for or against a leader won’t have liked hearing such an arrogant observation from Abbott, who they already believe takes them for granted.

The right of party MPs to choose their leader is what makes a Prime Minister a first among equals. John Howard always respected this. It is how MPs can ensure a leader listens.

While Abbott used his speech to (again) promise to consult and listen more, the obvious disdain Abbott showed for his colleagues right to remove him suggests that he won’t.

[Peter Van Onselen writing in The Australian, 2  February 2015]

The Prime Minister spent much of last week calling around his backbench trying to quell the anger of those frustrated by his leadership.

But MPs are still angry that Mr Abbott changed his personal mobile number late last year, leaving backbenchers unable to contact him directly with their concerns.

“We wanted to talk to him directly and none of us had his number. It’s just not a genuine consultative style.”

[Herald Sun, 3 February 2015]

Dr Jensen is from the WA electorate of Tangney. He was involved in calling the first of the Liberal spills in 2009 with Wilson Tuckey that ultimately saw Mr Abbott installed as the party’s leader.

Speaking on 7.30 tonight, Dr Jensen said he informed Mr Abbott on January 23 — three days before the disastrous Australia Day knighting of Prince Phillip — that he no longer supported the Prime Minister. [Federal Liberal MP Dennis Jensen, Herald Sun, 3 February 2015]

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott: 'out of touch', 'arrogant', 'narrow-minded' and 'erratic'

Five days before the September 2013 federal election which saw him become Australia’s 28^th prime minister, Anthony John ‘Tony’ Abbott’s chief personal attributes (according to Essential Research polling at the time) were ‘hard working’ and ‘intelligent’.

Seventeen months later, he is primarily seen as 'out of touch with ordinary people', 'arrogant', 'narrow-minded' and 'erratic'.

For over half those polled he remains ‘hardworking’, but is also viewed as ‘superficial’ and ‘intolerant’.

The percentage of poll respondents who consider Tony Abbott as ‘intelligent’ has dropped from 63 per cent prior to his becoming prime minister down to 50 per cent at the beginning of this week.

Tony Abbott, when compared with Bill Shorten, is considered by more respondents to be ‘erratic’, ‘out of touch with ordinary people’, ‘arrogant’, ‘narrow minded’, ‘intolerant’, ‘aggressive’ and ‘superficial’.

Bill Shorten, when compared with Tony Abbott, is regarded by more respondents to be someone who is ‘intelligent’, ‘hardworking, ‘understands the problems facing Australia’, and ‘a capable leader’.

'Someone else' still has more support than Tony Abbott as being the best leader of the Liberal Party - as does Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop at 24 per cent and 21 per cent respectively.

This poll indicates that if an election had been held on Tuesday 2 February 2015 Labor would have taken back federal government by roughly the same percentage as the Coalition won it in 2013.

Essential Report* of 3 January 2015:

* This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 30th January 2015 to 2nd February and is based on 1,019 respondents.    

Shorter George Brandis: Don't waste your time contacting me, I'm not interested if you live in the Clarence Valley

For years accessing no-cost legal advice, mediation and support in the Clarence Valley has been a lottery to say the least.

Name any problem (tenancy issue, dispute with a neighbour, companion animal problems, family breakdown etc.) that is not actively before the courts and the individual concerned will only have telephone numbers for services situated a hundred, sometimes many hundreds of, kilometres away.

This sad little article in The Daily Examiner on 4 February 2015 clearly indicates why it is about to become even harder in Abbott's Australia:

The Northern Rivers Community Legal Centre (NRCLC) is left in limbo as it waits for the finalisation of funding cuts.

The NRCLC is the main provider of legal support in domestic violence, employment, credit debt and other areas to the Clarence Valley. It was set to open an office in the Richmond Valley which would have provided better access to Clarence Valley residents, however, funding cuts meant it could no longer go ahead.

"A lot of people suffering domestic violence would have been helped by that office," centre manager Angela Pollard said.

"At the moment everyone is flailing. We still don't know what is happening."

She said they kept receiving funding extensions to continue operating, however, that left them in suspense while they waited for the axe to fall.

Ms Pollard tried to lobby Federal Attorney-General George Brandis to not cut the funding for the office, but he replied by letter not to waste taxpayer dollars on lobbying.

Ms Pollard said she was pleased Australian of the Year Rosie Batty highlighted Prime Minister Tony Abbott's contradictory national scheme for domestic violence orders while funding to legal services were cut.

Australian of the Year 2015 politely calls out the 'Prime Minister for Women' on his hypocrisy with regard to domestic violence

On or about 17 September 2013 then Prime Minister-elect Tony Abbott announced that he would hold portfolio responsibility for policies and programs targeting women.

He was sworn in as Prime Minister on 18 September that year.

Sixteen months later and his ongoing poor record in this area is there for all to see.

Women’s Agenda 2 February 2015:

Australian of the Year Rosie Batty has criticised Tony Abbott for promising to take real action to tackle family violence while at the same time slashing funding to family violence services.

After Batty was appointed Australian of the Year last Sunday, the prime minister announced he would be implementing new measures to fight domestic and family violence. 

On Tuesday he announced he would create a new national advisory panel on domestic violence and appointed Batty and retiring Victorian Police Commissioner Ken Lay as its founding members.

He also announced he would elevate domestic and family violence to an urgent agenda item for the Council of Australian Governments. He said he would urge the Council to agree on a framework for a national domestic violence scheme. 

But Batty has said that these announcements are meaningless unless Abbott takes action to reverse the cuts he has already made to crucial domestic violence services. 

She said it is hypocritical for him to make announcements about new frameworks and approaches when the cuts already in place are so damaging to domestic violence victims.

She said when compared with Abbott’s newfound public stance on family violence, the existing cuts are “contradictory”.

"It is a double standard, it is contradictory and totally undervaluing the part that these workers play in our front line services," she said to the Prime Minister’s office on Friday.

The cuts she refers to are to family violence services as well as homelessness and crisis accommodation services across the country. Altogether, the cuts are worth $300 million. Several services across the country will be forced to close after having their federal funding slashed or even removed in its entirety.