Two national political opinion polls begun one day apart - two markedly different results

Two national political opinion telephone polls begun one day apart with two markedly different results made for some confusing headlines this week.

The clue may be in the mix of days of the week on which each poll was conducted, the fact that the first poll would possibly have included a higher number of younger voters due to the inclusion of mobile phone users and, the narrow question range in the second published poll.

POLL 1: FAIRFAX/IPSOS POLL, THURSDAY TO SATURDAY  9-11 APRIL 2015, 1404 RESPONDENTS, LANDLINE & MOBILE PHONES, MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2.6%

Financial Review 13 April 2015:

A promise to spare households more budget cuts, a focus on the economy and a raft of national security announcements has failed to help the Abbott government, with the latest poll showing Labor once more forging a strong lead over the Coalition.

The Ipsos/Fairfax media poll shows Labor leading the Coalition by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, an increase from the 51-49 lead Labor held in the last such poll in early March.

Since that poll, the Coalition's primary vote has fallen 3 percentage points to 39 per cent and Labor's has risen 2 points to 38 per cent. The Greens are relatively steady on 13 per cent.

Labor leader Bill Shorten arrested a decline in his own personal ratings that showed up in the last poll. His approval rating was down a point to 42 per cent and his disapproval rating up a point to 44 per cent.

Mr Abbott's approval rating rose 2 points to 34 per cent and his disapproval rating fell 2 points to 60 per cent.

Mr Shorten has stretched his lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister by 3 points. He now leads by 48 per cent to 38 per cent.

The telephone poll of 1404 voters was taken from Thursday night to Saturday night. It follows a busy period in which Mr Abbott has shrugged off the leadership insurrection that dogged him in February and embarked on a blitz of policy announcements and policy launches.

There has been a heavy emphasis on national security as well as the release of the intergenerational report, the tax discussion paper and a focus on multinational tax evasion, an issue on which Labor has seized the initiative..……

...support for the Coalition is greatest among higher-income households. Among voters with household incomes over $100,000, 49 per cent back Coalition policies and 29 per cent back Labor.

But Labor is more popular among medium and lower-income earners. Among voters from households with between $40,000 and $100,000 in annual income, 36 per cent back the Coalition and 34 per cent back Labor.

Among voters from households with annual income below $40,000, 39 per cent back the Coalition and 41 per cent back Labor.

POLL 2: NEWSPOLL, FRIDAY TO SUNDAY 10-12 APRIL, 1172 RESPONDENTS, LANDLINE PHONES, MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 3%

Channel 9 News 13 April 2015:

Labor continues to hold a two-party preferred lead over the Abbott government but opposition leader Bill Shorten has suffered a slump in ratings, the latest Newspoll shows.

With preferences from the Greens based on the last election, the ALP has a two-party lead of 51 per cent to 49 per cent, the poll conducted for News Corp at the weekend showed.

The Coalition has meanwhile opened a five-point margin over Labor on primary vote to be ahead by 41 per cent to 36 per cent.

The survey of 1172 voters found Mr Shorten's satisfaction fell three points to a 12-month low of 33 per cent while Prime Minister Tony Abbott's satisfaction climbed four points to also sit at 33 per cent……

UPDATE

Essential Research released an opinion poll on 14 April 2015. This survey was conducted online from the 9 to 12 March and is based on 1,002 respondents drawn from a self-managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members 18 years of age and older. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self-selection.

The little political campaign that couldn't

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) thought it had hit on a good idea - run a small business-based campaign encouraging customers to complain to the Abbott Government about the fact that penalty rates still exist.

This is one of the posters in use during this campaign in New South Wales:

And this, being Australia, is one of the typical responses received:

 ‏@KieraGorden 

. 

To add to the amusement a spokesperson for ACCI, Kate Carnell, characterized this form of response as an illegal threat to boycott.

Perhaps Ms. Carnell might like to point out which clause in the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 actually applies to individual citizens letting business owners know they are not amused by the posters in their windows. 

Suicide is still the leading cause of premature death in Australia yet it took the Abbott Government ten months before it blinked over mental health funding cuts

In the May 2014 budget papers Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott, along with Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minster Mathias Cormann, wielded an ideological razor on health funding provided by the Commonwealth .

It has taken the Abbott Government ten long months to realise that the mental health sector, a traditionally underfunded area, could only respond to mooted federal funding cuts by reducing services or closing agencies.

The Minister for Health Sussan Ley finally announced a funding extension for a further twelve months on 2 April 2015 - two days after an Australian Bureau of Statistics media release which confirmed that suicide was still the leading cause of premature death in Australia.

It's almost as though someone in the Prime Minister's office finally put two and two together and realised that there was a public relations disaster of monumental proportions in the offing.

BRIEF BACKGROUND

Excerpt from an Australian Bureau of Statistics media release on 24 July 2010: New South Wales was found to have the lowest suicide rate at 8.6 deaths per 100,000 people for the period 2006-2010.

NSW Government Suicide by Local Health District and year:

The suicide rate for Northern NSW in 2010 was 10.7 deaths per 100,000 people and for the Mid-North Coast the rate was 6.2 per 100,000 people.

By 2013 New South Wales had a suicide rate of 9.1 per 100,000 people for 2009-2013.

In 2012-13 hospitalisation of young people aged between 15 and 24 years for intentional self-harm was significantly higher than the state average in Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour local government areas and, on par with the state average in Kyogle, Lismore, Tweed and Richmond Valley local government areas.

ABS 3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2013:

 There were 2,522 deaths in Australia from intentional self-harm in 2013.

(a) All causes of death data from 2006 are subject to a revisions process - once data for a reference year are 'final', they are no longer revised. Affected data in this table are: 2009-2011 (final), 2012 (revised), 2013 (preliminary). See Explanatory Notes 52-54 and Technical Note, Causes of Death Revisions, 2011 and 2012. (b) Includes ICD-10 codes X60-X84 and Y87.0. Care needs to be taken in interpreting figures relating to suicide. See Explanatory Notes 87-93. (c) Age-specific rates of deaths are the number of deaths per 100,000 population. See Glossary and Data used in calculating death rates (Technical Note) for further information. (d) The age-specific rates published in this table are calculated for the 2009-2013 reference period. As such, they may differ from age-specific rates published elsewhere in Causes of Death, which are calculated for a single year.  (e) Includes deaths of persons whose age was not stated.

(a) All causes of death data from 2006 are subject to a revisions process - once data for a reference year are 'final', they are no longer revised. Affected data in this table are: 2009-2011 (final), 2012 (revised), 2013 (preliminary). See Explanatory Notes 52-54 and Technical Notes, Causes of Death Revisions, 2011 and 2012. (b) Cells with small values have been randomly assigned to protect the confidentiality of individuals. As a result, some totals will not equal the sum of their components. Cells with a zero value have not been affected by confidentialisation. (c) Includes ICD-10 codes X60-X84 and Y87.0. Care needs to be taken in interpreting figures relating to suicide. See Explanatory Notes 87-93. (d) Includes 'other territories'. (e) Includes deaths of persons whose age was not stated.

np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated.

The Sydney Morning Herald 8 December 2014:

Mental health organisations are cutting services and shedding staff because of uncertainty about their funding, according to the sector's peak body.

Forty per cent of mental health agencies say they have already lost staff as a result of the uncertainty, while more than half report a reduction in services to their clients, according to a survey of 75 organisations which receive Commonwealth funding, conducted by Mental Health Australia.

Almost half of those surveyed reported difficulty in attracting new staff, and 81 per cent reported a decline in staff morale.

Fifty six per cent of organisations said they had not had communications with the government regarding the future of their Commonwealth funding after June next year, and 85 per cent reported a loss of trust in government among management and staff.

Mental Health Australia chief executive Frank Quinlan said the typically short-term funding cycles for mental health programs, a lack of clarity about how the National Disability Insurance Scheme would affect funding arrangements, and a national review of existing mental health programs had combined to create a "perfect storm of indecision."

"Nobody argues about the need for these programs but at the moment we just can't seem to find anybody to own the future of that problem," Mr Quinlan said.

Health Minister Peter Dutton is considering the review of existing services, conducted by the National Mental Health Commission, after receiving the report late last month….

Excerpt from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) media release, 31 March 2015:

Suicide was once again the leading cause of death for Australian's aged 15 to 44. Suicide accounted for 2,520 deaths in 2013 at a standardised death rate of 10.7 per 100,000 people. The median age at death for suicides is lower than for many other causes at 44.5 years of age. As a result, suicide accounted for over 85,000 years of life lost making it the leading cause of premature death in Australia. [my red bolding]

ABC News 2 April 2015:

In a move worth $300 million, mental health services will have their funding renewed for a further 12 months.

The announcement made today by Health Minister Sussan Ley follows a campaign by Mental Health Australia, after some mental health services began to shut down, unsure of future funding.

Hundreds of contracts were due to end on June 30.

Ms Ley said the 12-month extension would allow services to continue to be delivered while work continued on the current Mental Health Review.

Memo to North Coast Voices readers

North Coast Voices will not be posting commentary for the next two days.

Apart from our annual holiday between Christmas Day and New Year's Day, this is the first time this blog has not had a daily post since it commenced in 2007.

We apologize to our readers and hope to be back on Tuesday, 14 April 2015.

Metgasco misses out on NSW compensation offer

The Australian 10 April 2015:

At close of business on Friday10 April 2015 the Australian Stock Exchange listed Metgasco's ordinary share price at 0.023 cents.

Metgasco Limited v Minister for Resources and Energy is listed for judgment in the NSW Supreme Court at 10am on Friday, 24 April 2015.

Coal Seam Gas miner Santos still under the spotlight concerning sponsorship of Queensland Police

The debate on mining company sponsorship of Queensland Police continues......

Photograph showing Queensland Police vehicles attending NSW Pilliga protest

 against Santos CSG drilling: ABC News 7 April 2015

ABC News 7 April 2015:

The fact that the police refused to name the sponsors, indicates that the police hierarchy know they have a vulnerability.

President of the Australian Council for Civil Liberties Terry O'Gorman

Queensland Police Commissioner Ian Stewart says he is standing by his decision not to release the names of private companies who have sponsored the police service.

Mining companies, banks, media organisations and security firms are among a raft of sponsors behind almost $475,000 in donations to the Queensland Police Service last financial year.

The donations for this financial year are on track to reach the same level.

The ABC first asked for a list of sponsors and the sponsorship amounts four months ago, after environmentalists alleged it was a conflict of interest.

The QPS executive has now provided two lists of donations and a brief description of the programs, but the names have been withheld.

Speaking on 612 ABC Brisbane this afternoon, Commissioner Stewart said the sponsorship arrangements were within the official policy and were a benefit to both the community and the sponsors......

BACKGROUND

The Courier Mail 9 December 2014:

Santos said there was nothing untoward in the sponsorship deal, in which the vehicles attend public functions like caravan and camping shows.

A Santos GLNG spokesman said the claims were ridiculous.

“This is just one of our many investments that contribute to safety in regional Queensland, which also include the CareFlight aeromedical evacuation service used by the general community, the Rural Fire Service, the Royal Flying Doctor Service, and road upgrade programs,’’ he said.

“We have been supporting the Stay On Track Outback safe driving campaign since 2012.

ABC News 8 December 2014:

Queensland Police Commissioner Ian Stewart said Santos was one of a string of sponsors for the campaign, aimed at tourists with caravans on remote roads.

Mr Stewart said Santos had contributed about $40,000 to the program.

While we are waiting for hearing transcripts to be published in the Australian Senate inquiry into tax avoidance and aggressive minimisation, here are a few 'facts' on record

This post is updated as new information becomes available.

According to the Australian Taxation Office:

In 2012-13, corporate tax revenue collections totalled $66.9 billion, 28.3% of the $236.6 billion in total income tax revenue, making it the second largest contributor to the tax revenue base after individuals…..

For public companies, those listed on the ASX account for 40.8% of net tax. The largest 200 ASX listed companies by market capitalisation6 contribute 97% of the net tax of all ASX-listed companies and the top 50 accounts for 82%.The financial services and mining sectors accounted for over half of the total corporate income tax revenue.

Australia has a corporate effective tax rate of 30%.

This week the Senate Inquiry into tax avoidance and aggressive minimisation by corporations registered in Australia and multinational corporations operating in Australia began its public hearings.

Also this week The Sydney Morning Herald reported that; Treasurer Joe Hockey personally approved a decision to shield companies sending billions of dollars offshore as part of apparent tax-dodging strategies from being named. Tax Commissioner Chris Jordan said in a letter to the Senate committee into corporate tax avoidance that Mr Hockey endorsed his decision not to release the names of ten resources companies that transferred a combined $31.4 billion to Singapore in the financial year 2011– 2012 and

The extraordinary scale of funds being moved out of the country by individual companies is revealed in an internal Australian Tax Office memo, obtained under Freedom of Information.

It lists 10 companies that channelled a combined $31.4 billion from Australia to Singapore in the 2011-2012 financial year. An estimated $60 billion in so-called "related parties" transactions went from Australia to tax havens in the same year.

While Australian voters wait to see what detail hearing transcripts may reveal here is a snapshot of what some companies, who all asserted that they complied with Australian taxation law, had to say about their own effective tax rates in submissions to the current Senate inquiry:

* Aurizon’s average effective tax rate for the period ended 30 June 2013 was 2%.

Auizon (formerly QR National Limited) was privatised in 2010 and is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. 

Aurizon asserts its low effective tax rate between 2011-13 arises as a result of Aurizon recently entering the federal tax regime

  

* Fortescue Metals Group Ltd’s effective tax rate for the period ending 30 June 2015 was 29.98%.

Fortescue has eight foreign subsidiaries which operate commercial businesses in their respective jurisdictions.

Fortescue has a US$ functional currency for income tax purposes.

* Mirvac Group admits to a low effective tax rate but declined to state a figure.

Mirvac Limited operates the development business which comprises of both residential and commercial development. Mirvac Property Trust maintains an investment portfolio that invests in office, retail and industrial assets. The Mirvac Group is an Australian business operating principally in Australia; the group has negligible overseas operations or investments.

Overseas operations and investments currently generate less than 0.2% total revenue of the Mirvac Group.

* Origin Energy Limited’s effective tax rate for the period ending 30 June 2014 was 15%.

Origin stated; with respect to effective tax rates we note that we have been unable to reconcile Origin’s financial information and lodged tax return data to the data presented in The Tax Justice Network - Australia report issued in September 2014. We have however provided our internal analysis of effective tax rates for the last 10 financial years ended 30 June 2014….

* Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu failed to mention its own effective tax rate status.

* Toll Group’s “normalised” effective tax rate for the period ending 30 June 2014 was 23%.

“Normalised” is defined as; Eliminating large once-off adjustments such as the impact of impairments etc.

* ANZ Bank denies having an effective tax rate of 27% for the period 2004 to 2013. It asserts a tax rate of 29.3% in 2013 and, a global effective tax rate of 32% in that same year.

* Rio Tinto stated; the corporate income tax charge to the UK statutory tax rate of 23%. The effective corporate income tax rate on underlying earnings was 34.9%.

“Underlying earnings” are; An alternative measure of earnings which is reported by earnings Rio Tinto to provide greater understanding of the underlying business performance of its operations.
The company reportedly set up a marketing hub in Singapore around 2005 when Rio Tinto Singapore Holdings Pte. Ltd was created. This marketing hub's effective tax rate is est. 5% per annum until 2022 and, Rio Tinto's Australian operations are billed for ore sales by Rio Tinto Singapore in order to transfer cash to this low tax country bypassing a percentage of Australian tax.

* Newcrest Mining declined to state an effective tax rate, instead stating its; taxation payment profile over the last decade has been lower than would be anticipated by reference to its reported accounting  profit due entirely to the application of ordinary Australian taxation rules…

* Macquarie Group stated; Macquarie’s effective tax rate is largely driven by the geographic location and mix of the income derived in any particular reporting period. The Group’s tax rate has been 38% or higher for each of the last four reporting periods. The amount of income tax paid will vary from the Group’s effective tax rate in any given period……

* Google Australia did not state an effective tax rate for its Australian operations. Instead stating that globally its overall corporate tax rate in 2014 was about 19%.

Google Australia also mentioned that Singapore had a tax rate of 17% and reportedly admitted that most of its Australian revenue was booked by an affiliate business in Singapore, presumably to take advantage of Singapore’s lower corporate flat tax rate for profits above S$300,000.

* Lend Lease denied its effective tax rate was 15% for the 10 year period to 30 June 2013. Citing instead a statutory effective tax rate of 21.2%.

* BHP Billiton did not state the effective tax rate on its Australian operations. Instead stating that its; average global effective tax rate for the past three years is 29.3%.

All calculations used in its submission are in US currency. 
BHP Billiton has set up a marketing hub in low tax Singapore. 
It refused to answer questions during the Senate inquiry hearing concerning details of this marketing hub. 
However, a document titled BHP Billiton Marketing AG Singapore Branch Registration Number: F00006681W Annual Report Year ended 30 June 2014 became publicly available.
This document disclosed that for the period ending 30 June 2014 the company had an effective tax rate in Singapore of 17%. 
The company having been granted the status of a Pioneer Service Company (Certificate No. COY-10- IHQ/B340-1/2) by the Singapore Government, the effective tax rate had no effect and therefore BHP Billiton paid no Singapore taxes between 1 July 2005 and 1 July 2015.

It has also been granted the Development and Expansion incentive (Certificate No. SO5/1-23624909) which gives it a concessional tax rate of 5% from 2020.

BHP Billiton's total comprehensive income for the financial year 2013-14 ($941.174 million) appears to have been processed through its Singapore marketing hub and then repatriated to its head office incorporated in Baar, Switzerland.

* AGL Energy denied that it had an effective tax rate for the seven years to 30 June 2013 of 24% and that the average annual tax foregone by AGL was $26m per annum. 

Instead asserting that its effective tax rate for those years was closer to the corporate tax rate of 30%.

It stated an effective tax rate for the period ending 30 June 2014 of 28% based on underlying profit before tax and, an effective tax rate of 25% for the same period based on statutory profit before tax.

* Microsoft Australia stated its effective tax rate in Australia for each of fiscal years 2014, 2013, and 2012 was above Australia’s statutory tax rate of 30%. 

However, the company’s regional operating centres in Ireland, Puerto Rico & Singapore generated 81% of its foreign earnings in 2014 and these earnings appear to have a combined tax rate of 17.1%.

The Singapore operating centre represents billions in customer revenue earned and operating expenses incurred serving 18 countries throughout Asia Pacific, including Australia.

The profits earned throughout Asia Pacific are earned primarily by the Singapore ROC group. Microsoft admitted that all $2 billion in Australian 2014 revenue was paid to its Singapore regional operating centre.

* Apple Pty Ltd incorporated in Australia asserted it paid an effective tax rate of over 30% in Australia in the two years after the Advanced Pricing Agreement with the Australian Tax Office has expired.  However, the Australian company is wholly-owned by Apple Ireland and the majority of its revenue is transferred through billings to Ireland where it would appear the effective tax rate can be as low as 12.5% for trading income and 25% on all other income including non-trading income and non-qualifying foreign dividends.