222 economists advise that lifting COVID-19 restrictions too soon will not help the Australian economy. But will Scott Morrison listen?

The Conversation, 20 April 2020:

In recent weeks a growing chorus of Australian commentators has called for social distancing measures to be eased or radically curtailed.

Some have claimed the lives saved by the lockdowns are not worth the damage they are causing to the economy.

Others have claimed the case for easing is strengthened by the fact many of the hardest hit by COVID-19 are elderly or suffering from other conditions.

Some might expect economists, of all people, to endorse this calculus.

But as economists we categorically reject these views, and we believe they do not represent the majority of our profession.

We believe a callous indifference to life is morally objectionable, and that it would be a mistake to expect a premature loosening of restrictions to be beneficial to the economy and jobs, given the rapid rate of contagion…..

Open Letter from Australian Economists

19 April, 2020

Dear Prime Minister and Members of the National Cabinet,

The undersigned economists have witnessed and participated in the public debate about when to relax social-distancing measures in Australia. Some commentators have expressed the view there is a trade-off between the public health and economic aspects of the crisis. We, as economists, believe this is a false distinction.

We cannot have a functioning economy unless we first comprehensively address the public health crisis. The measures put in place in Australia, at the border and within the states and territories, have reduced the number of new infections. This has put Australia in an enviable position compared to other countries, and we must not squander that success.

We recognise the measures taken to date have come at a cost to economic activity and jobs, but believe these are far outweighed by the lives saved and the avoided economic damage due to an unmitigated contagion. We believe strong fiscal measures are a much better way to offset these economic costs than prematurely loosening restrictions.

As has been foreshadowed in your public remarks, our borders will need to remain under tight control for an extended period. It is vital to keep social-distancing measures in place until the number of infections is very low, our testing capacity is expanded well beyond its already comparatively high level, and widespread contact tracing is available.

A second-wave outbreak would be extremely damaging to the economy, in addition to involving tragic and unnecessary loss of life.

Sincerely,

Professor Alison Booth, Australian National University

Professor Jeff Borland, University of Melbourne

Professorial Research Fellow Lisa Cameron, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Professor Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Melbourne

Professor Deborah Cobb-Clark, University of Sydney

Assistant Professor Ashley Craig, University of Michigan

Professor Chris Edmond, University of Melbourne

Professor Nisvan Erkal, University of Melbourne

Professor John Freebairn, University of Melbourne

Professor Renée Fry-McKibbin, Australian National University

Professor Joshua Gans, University of Toronto

Professor Jacob Goeree, UNSW Business School

Professor Quentin Grafton, Australian National University

Professor Simon Grant, Australian National University

Professor Pauline Grosjean, UNSW Business School

Distinguished Professor Jane Hall, University of Technology Sydney

Assistant Professor Steven Hamilton, George Washington University

Professor Ian Harper, Melbourne Business School

Professor Richard Holden, UNSW Business School

Professor David Johnston, Monash University

Professor Flavio Menezes, University of Queensland

Professor Warwick McKibbin, Australian National University

Assistant Professor Simon Mongey, University of Chicago

Professor James Morley, University of Sydney

Professor Joseph Mullins, University of Minnesota

Professor Abigail Payne, Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne

Professor Bruce Preston, University of Melbourne

Emeritus Professor Sue Richardson, Flinders University

Professor Stefanie Schurer, University of Sydney

Professor Kalvinder Shields, University of Melbourne

Professor John Quiggin, University of Queensland

Associate Professor Simon Quinn, Oxford University

Economic Advisor James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Professor Tom Wilkening, University of Melbourne

Professor Justin Wolfers, University of Michigan

Professor Yves Zenou, Monash University

Full list of signatories available on the economists open letter website.

2GB radio shock jock Alan Jones and unrequited political love

Excerpt from A Bigger Picture by former Australian prime minister Malcolm Bligh Turnbull, April 2020, p.237:

These bad polls made Abbott’s media backers go in harder. After days of demented denunciations from Alan Jones, I agreed to go on his program. On 4 June, the night before the interview, at 5.59 pm, I called him up. We spoke (mostly he spoke) for 31 minutes. I wrote in my diary that night: 

I tried to persuade him to stop this mad jihad against me on the basis that it was (a) utterly baseless and (b) very damaging to the Government, creating issues of leadership all at a time when we were behind in the polls and thus vulnerable. Jones was totally hysterical, screaming (literally) at me. He kept on accusing me of being ‘a traitor, a treacherous schemer’. He said again and again, ‘I love Tony Abbott and I will stand between him and anyone who tries to undermine him and that means you Malcolm Turnbull … You don’t love Tony Abbott.’ ‘Well,’ I said, ‘I am quite fond of him –’ ‘But you don’t love him, like I do,’ screamed Jones. ‘Not like you do, Alan, that’s true,’ I replied. At one point, he started screaming, ‘Don’t you know, everybody hates you, they hate you, everybody, everybody hates you …’ At another point he said, ‘Why aren’t you out there every day selling the Medicare Co-payment?’ I said that it might be because I wasn’t the Health minister. ‘That’s just an excuse!’ said Jones.

Covid-19 testing in the Clarence Valley in February to April 2020

As of 20 April 2020 there were 56 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Northern Rivers region.

Eight of these cases were found in the Clarence Valley.

Image: Clarence Valley Council

By 20 April 2020 records show testing had been undertaken in a number of Clarence Valley post codes:

• 21 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2453, which covers Dundurrabin, Tyringham, Clouds Creek, Wild Cattle Creek and 16 other locations.
• 13 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2469, which covers Woombah, Tabulam, Ewingar, Moraro, Paddy's Flat and over 40 other locations.
• 13 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2466, which covers Woody Head, Iluka and The Fresh Water.
• 5 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2465, which covers Harwood Island.
• 109 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2464, which covers Yamba, Woolowyah, Angourie, Freebirn Island, Micalo Island and Yuragir.
• 110 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2463, which covers Maclean, Townsend, Gulmarrad, James Creek, Brooms Head, Palmers Island, Ashby, Tullymorgan and 10 other locations.
• 22 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2462, which covers Wooli, Minnie Waters, Ulmarra, Tucabia, Coldstream and 7 other locations.
• 0 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2461, which covers part of South Grafton.
• 340 COVID-19 tests had been conducted in postcode 2460, which covers Grafton, Nymboida, Coutts Crossing, Copmanhurst, Jackadgery, Baryugil, Lawrence, and over 30 other locations.

The Clarence Valley had a resident population of 51,662 people in 2019 and testing up to 20 April 2020 does not appear to have exceeded est. 1.2% of this population.

NSW Department of Health guidelines are that testing only occurs when a person presents with upper respiratory symptoms, such as a fever, sore throat, dry cough, breathlessness. Therefore any asymptomatic virus carriers slip through the net.

Despite the limitations of the 'flattening the curve' public health response to COVID-19, there has been no new cases in the NSW Northern Rivers region for the last 6 days and none in the Clarence Valley for the last 21 days.

I'm not exhaling yet, but this is a hopeful sign.

Morrison's insistence that NSW public schools are safe places during the pandemic is not an accurate claim

On 9 April 2020 NSW public schools began the school year's Easter holidays.

By that time school attendance was thought to be as low as 30 per cent of all enrolled students in state schools.

Even the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison had withdrawn his children from a NSW private school sometime between 9 March and 2 April 2020 and moved his family into The Lodge in Canberra.

Yet he continues to harangue the states and teachers for the distance learning policy put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

These teacher expressed her frustration at his attitude and comments.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 17 April 2020, p.20:

I find Morrison's comments that parents are doing home schooling offensive. What they are doing is assisting their children in understanding detailed, highly formatted lessons that are linked to the curriculum in a way to make it interesting for students. This is not home schooling as parents did not plan and link the work to the curriculum. As a teacher I spent 12-hour days combing the internet for interesting activities and tying it all to the curriculum, as well as running video classrooms, answering student questions and emails. When students were still having difficulties I was calling home to speak to the children to see how to fix the problems. That's not child minding: that's delivering quality remote learning for our students. Give us the protective wear, cleaning products and non-contact thermometers to screen children and teachers will be happy to go back to classrooms. 

 Jennie Kidd, Campbelltown

Coronavirus: PM won't send his kids to school while it's just childminding ⁦⁦@ScottMorrisonMP⁩ stating the online learning we, as a profession, have been busting our nuts preparing & delivering for a month, amounts to childminding is a total insult https://t.co/fyc9n9jfxD

— Vicki Lodge (@Vickster762) April 16, 2020

Morrison continues to insist that public schools are safe places for children to be during a pandemic.

NSW schools that have no hot running water, frequently no additional cleaning equipment and a limited ability to impose social distancing.

Under those conditions teachers were rightly worried about the risk to their own health and that of their pupils.

On 17 April 2020 there were est. 121 COVID-19 cases in NSW where individuals' ages ranged between 0 and 19 years.

This is an excerpt from a NSW Dept of Health media release dated 9 April 2020 at which point est. 112 individuals in that age range were infected with COVID-19 in the state:

This is another excerpt from a NSW Dept of Health media release dated 4 April 2020, at which point est.101 individuals in that age range were infected with COVID-19 in the state:

People still moving about unnecessarily in NSW Northern Rivers region

NSW Public Site - NEWS, 16 April 2020:

About 6.20pm yesterday (Wednesday 15 April 2020), officers from Tweed/Byron Police District attended Florence Street, Tweed Heads, after receiving information about a man who had arrived in a car acting aggressively. The man returned a positive roadside breath test, before being taken to Tweed Heads Police Station, where he allegedly refused a breath analysis. He was charged with breach of bail, refuse breath analysis, drive unregistered vehicle and unlicensed driver. The man had been issued with a $1000 PIN on 7 April 2020 for failing to comply with a ministerial direction. He was also charged with not comply with noticed direction and refused bail, to appear at Lismore Local Court today (16 April 2020).

Two women have been issued infringement notices after travelling to a caravan park at Broadwater. Officers from Richmond Police District were notified the two women, aged 19 and 29, had travelled to the caravan park from Taree. About 10.20am the pair were spoken to by police and were issued $1000 PINs for non-essential travel.

About 5pm yesterday (Wednesday 15 April 2020), officers from Tweed/Bryon Police District stopped a vehicle at Fawcett Street, Brunswick Heads, and spoke to the three occupants. The 20-year-old driver failed to provide a reasonable excuse for travel, telling officers he answers to a higher authority. He had previously been issued a warning under the Ministerial Direction and was issued with a $1000 PIN. The other two occupants, men aged 46 and 56, were given warnings.

Jump in Australian online gambling during COVID-19 shutdown

The Northern Star, 17 April 2020:

The new isolation measures bought on by the coronavirus pandemic are being linked to an increase in online gambling. 

There was a 67 per cent increase in online gambling from a survey of 250,000 Australian consumers, according to a recent study by Australian credit bureau Illion in collaboration with analytics firm Alphabeta. 

Professor Matthew Rockloff, Head of Experimental Gambling Research Laboratory at CQU, said the increased spare time could be a trigger for gamblers or introduce new people to the habit. 

“People may try online gambling as a way to gamble because they can’t gamble in-venue anymore … they might try overseas sites, which puts them at increased risk because most of the time these sites don’t have consumer protection measures..... 

NSW Police investigating last two voyages of cruise ship "Ruby Princess" - currently contacting passengers who have returned home

NSW Police Public Site - News, 17 April 2020:

Update in relation to investigation under Strike Force Bast 

Police have outlined the breadth of the investigation under Strike Force Bast and appealed for assistance from passengers from the last two voyages of the Ruby Princess to assist with ongoing inquiries. 

Detectives from across State Crime, Counter Terrorism and Special Tactics and Marine Area Commands are conducting inquiries under Strike Force Bast surrounding the docking and disembarking of the Ruby Princess at Sydney Harbour on Thursday 19 March 2020. 

The priority of the investigation is to determine whether there was criminal negligence by the company or crew relevant to health issues prevailing on the ship, as well as any actions or omissions by any other entity, including NSW or Commonwealth departments, which may have directly or indirectly related to the death of a person from COVID-19. 

This would include the nature of – and deficiencies in – decision-making processes both on-board and on-shore surrounding the management of the vessel, and its crew and passengers. 

Strike Force Bast will refer any and all information relevant to jurisdictional responsibilities to the Special Commission of Inquiry. 

Information relevant to the circumstances surrounding the deaths of people who either contracted COVID-19 on board the vessel or through contact with a passenger will be reported to the NSW Coroner’s Court in due course. 

The State Coroner will not make a decision about whether an inquest will be held until after the criminal investigation and the Special Commission of Inquiry are completed.

Information from the vessel’s voyage data recorder (black box) – which was seized last Wednesday (8 April 2020) – and believed to contain telemetry, as well as engine and systems management, and voice recordings of ship-to-shore communications, is currently undergoing forensic examination. 

All necessary inquiries have been conducted on-board and, as communication has been established with the crew, there are no operational or investigative issues that would impede the vessel’s impending departure. 

Further, strike force investigators are continuing to receive relevant documentation from the cruise company; the process of logging, triaging and assessing the information is ongoing. 

Due to current COVID-19 pandemic restrictions in place across the globe, strike force detectives are being flexible and agile in their approach to investigations management and witness contact, which includes a strong reliance on remote communications and digital technology. 

In recent days, investigators have provided a survey to the crew currently on board the vessel, which will assist with guiding relevance of information, and witness statements will be obtained remotely, as required. 

Strike force investigators will also reach out in coming days to passengers from both the 24 February to 8 March and 8-19 March voyages to conduct a similar survey, which will help prioritise the order in which statements are obtained. 

The manifests list passengers from across the globe, including 2995 people on the first voyage and 2647 people on the second voyage – many with travel agents as their primary contact – and at this time, investigators are making their way through the list contacting via email and text. 

They will be provided a link to an online questionnaire, which will provide the information directly to Strike Force Bast. 

This Initial triage will assist with prioritising key witnesses for a timely investigative response. All passengers who receive the investigator’s electronic survey request are encouraged to complete it as soon as possible. 

Passengers who have not received the survey by next Friday (24 April 2020) should register their best contact details with Crime Stoppers online at https://nsw.crimestoppers.com.au, which will assist with establishing a direct contact within the strike force and ensuring the timely recording of relevant information. 

While the rosters show many of the same crew were part of the more the 1100-strong workforce on-board for both voyages, there are numerous members who have since returned to their home country. 

Given the expanse of the proposed inquiries – both in volume and distance – this may take some time to complete. 

As such, Strike Force Bast may enlist the assistance of interstate and international law enforcement colleagues for liaison and to finalise statements. 

These inquiries are expected to include the canvass of some 7000 people, the analysis of thousands of pages of documentation, and hundreds of hours of footage, and information may also be referred to the NSW Government’s Special Commission of Inquiry. 

It is of critical importance that detectives ensure they maintain the integrity and thoroughness of this investigation – as they would any investigation – despite the current restrictions and guidelines under the Public Health Act. 

Anyone who has information relevant to the investigation, including details of symptoms, illness, or medical advice during the voyage is urged to contact Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000 or https://nsw.crimestoppers.com.au. The community is reminded that their information is treated in strict confidence.

The "Ruby Princess" (20 deaths to date) wasn't the only Carnival Corporation passenger ship that became a floating death trap.

A "Diamond Princess" cruise resulted in eight people dead and a "Grand Princess" cruise left 1 dead.

At least six more of the company’s ships at sea became virus hot spots according to mainstream media, resulting in more than 1,500 positive infections overall and at least 39 fatalities.

There are two lawsuits underway accusing the cruise line of ignoring the risks associated with COVID-19 - one involving the "Ruby Princess".

Prior to the pandemic Carnival Corporation did not enjoy a good reputation and now due to the effect of this global pandemic it is looking to raise $6 billion to stay afloat.