The second Albanese Government budget sees Australia's healthy international credit rating remaining intact

 

After the Albanese Government's first national budget was delivered soon after winning federal government, all three major global credit rating agencies - Moody's, S&P Global and Fitch - gave Australia's financial status the thumbs up.

On 30 January 2023 Standard & Poor’s again reaffirmed Australia’s AAA credit rating.

On the heels of the second Albanese Government budget Fitch Ratings also reaffirmed the nation’s AAA credit rating on 15 May 2023:

RATING ACTION COMMENTARY

Fitch Affirms Australia at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable

Mon 15 May, 2023 - 1:37 PM ET

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 15 May 2023: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Australia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AAA' with a Stable Outlook.

A full list of rating actions is below.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Strong Institutions Support Rating: Australia's rating is underpinned by the country's high income per capita, as well as strong institutions and an effective policy framework, which facilitated nearly thirty consecutive years of economic growth before the Covid-19 pandemic and continues to support resilient growth outcomes amid global shocks. The recent outperformance of public finances relative to our expectations further supports the Stable Outlook.

Fiscal Performance Improves: On a general government (GG) basis, we forecast the fiscal deficit to narrow to 1.2% of GDP in FY23 (ending June 2023), from 3.8% in FY22, on consolidation at the federal and aggregate state level. The federal government is set to achieve its first underlying cash surplus in 15 years at 0.2% of GDP in FY23, from a 1.4% deficit in FY22, according to the FY24 budget on 9 May. This is well below the 1.5% of GDP FY23 deficit forecast in the October 2022 budget due to robust revenue from a strong labour market and buoyant commodity prices, combined with spending restraint.

Slight Deficit Widening: We forecast a slight widening of the GG deficit to 1.6% of GDP in FY24. Still, we expect a slightly lower federal underlying cash deficit in FY24 than the budget, as we forecast higher commodity prices and nominal GDP growth. The federal budget shows a return to a modest 0.5% of GDP underlying cash deficit, against a 1.8% forecast in the October 2022 budget. The commitment in the budget to save most of the revenue windfalls over the five-year budget horizon signals a commitment to prudent fiscal management.

Structural Fiscal Challenges: We forecast GG debt to tick up slightly to 49.7% of GDP in FY25, from a Fitch-estimated 49.1% in FY23 (AAA median 36.3%), before gradually trending down. Slowing nominal GDP growth, moderating commodity prices and structural spending pressures, particularly from the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), are expected to push the GG deficit up to 2% of GDP in FY25, before narrowing.

The government took some initial steps to address structural pressures in the FY24 budget through revenue measures and adjustments to NDIS. Even so, longer-term pressure remains in the absence of additional structural reforms.

GDP Growth Moderating: We forecast GDP growth to ease to 1.5% in 2023 from 3.6% in 2022. Higher interest rates and still-elevated inflation will weigh on consumer spending, although households could use their savings buffers to smooth consumption. Services exports are showing a strong recovery, while the rebound in the Chinese economy provides a modest benefit. Net inward migration has recovered rapidly after the border reopening, which should support the economy's resilience and help alleviate labour constraints.

Tightening Cycle at its End: We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia has reached the end of its tightening cycle following its 25bp policy rate hike earlier this month to 3.85%. This represents a cumulative 375bp policy rate increase since May 2022. Inflation was high at 7% in 1Q23, but is past its peak. We forecast inflation to drop to 3.5% by end-2023, but services inflation could prove persistent.

Household Debt Risks Limited: Australian households, which have one of the highest levels of debt to disposable income (around 188%) among 'AAA' peers, are likely to face pressure from rising debt-servicing burdens. Transmission of rates has been relatively fast, as about 75% of households with mortgages are currently on floating-rate mortgages and most of those with fixed-rate loans are set to roll on to higher rates in the next two years, mainly in 2023.

We expect rising rates to dampen consumption, rather than pose financial stability risks. Prudent mortgage serviceability buffers instituted by regulators mean most households have been assessed at rates around prevailing levels. Sizeable household assets (5.7x the value of debt), including a large build-up in liquid financial assets in the past few years, and mortgage pre-payment by many households should cushion rising debt-servicing burdens. A solid labour market and our expectation that unemployment remains low, should also limit potential stress.

House Prices Show Resilience: Australian house prices are down 8.0% through April 2023 from their April 2022 peak (on the heels of a 26% rise from March 2020). Recent months have seen a modest rebound in prices, particularly in Sydney. We now see a 10% (from 15%-20% previously) peak-to-trough fall in house prices, with some possibility of further weakness in 2023. The peak in the interest rate cycle, combined with strong housing demand, in part from a recovery in inward migration, will be supportive.

Strong Banking Sector: Fitch believes banks are well-positioned to manage risks due to strong capital positions, resilient profitability and sound underwriting standards. Asset quality is likely to deteriorate only modestly from a strong initial position (0.7% non-performing loan ratio). Fitch's stress test of Australia's four major banks in July 2022, with a scenario of a 5% default rate and 30% fall in house prices, well beyond our baseline, resulted in losses that did not exceed 0.3pp of risk-weighted assets or 10% of pre-impairment operating profit.

External Finances: The external finance profile remains weak compared with peers, but is improving on sustained current account surpluses. We forecast the surplus to be relatively stable at 1.4% of GDP in 2023 as strong goods and services exports offset higher income payments. External financing risks are limited despite high net external debt of around 47% of GDP (AAA median 22% net creditor position). Banks have reduced their reliance on external funding over the past decade and funding needs are well-managed. Households have accumulated large equity asset holdings in the past several years.

ESG - Governance: Australia has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5[+]' for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Australia has a high WBGI ranking at 91.2, reflecting its long record of stable and peaceful political transitions, well established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption.

Read the full assessment at:

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-affirms-australia-at-aaa-outlook-stable-15-05-2023

YAMBA STATE OF PLAY: an example of state and local government wilful blindness that continues to this very day

A view of the lower section of Carrs Drive,
West Yamba Urban Release Area
IMAGE: Clarence Valley Independent, 7 May 2023

The original 127ha West Yamba Urban Release Area (WYURA) sits on a 690ha natural flood storage plain. 

This was an established fact in the early 1990s when urban settlement of this area was first mooted. It was still an established fact in 1995 when the local council adopted its Land Use Strategy. 

It remained an established fact when WYURA first came into effect in 2010 with amendments to the Maclean LEP 2001 allowing the amalgamated Clarence Valley Council to house between 2,000-2,500 people on flood liable land within a reduced 121ha urban release area.

It continued as an established fact in 2015 when Clarence Valley Council confirmed its ongoing intention to allow more dwellings per hectare via manufactured housing estates and therefore more people to be settled on this floodplain within the larger Lower Clarence River floodplain. 

Something then Clarence Valley Mayor and current NSW Nationals MLA for Clarence Richie Williamson called "good news for local development". Going on to say; "There's between 950 to 1000 lots and other land owners in the area will be moving forward with their developments. It's a massive development." 

It was an established fact in the years from 2015 to the present day, during which Clarence Valley Council received at least 9 largescale and 2 small scale subdivision applications on this flood liable land.

Look at that photograph again. At best, even with planned landfill this area will see 2,000+ men, women and children isolated in their homes when the road system is cut off by flood waters. 

Literally many hundreds of these residents will be retirees - with sometimes high levels of physical vulnerabilities. It is hard to see how emergency services, in a Yamba containing est. 7,000-8,000 residents by the time West Yamba is almost fully developed, will be able to cope during inundation caused by high rainfall events combining with a large riverine floods or heavy ocean storm surges.

The property developers don't care what the future holds, so it's more than time for Clarence Valley Council and the NSW Minns Government to enter emergency discussions concerning an immediate moratorium of further development in the West Yamba Urban Release Area.

Doesn't matter which major party forms government in New South Wales, they all have cost-shifting onto local government down to a fine art

 

There are 128 local councils in New South Wales and this month the new Minns Labor Government decided to demonstrate that it too knows how to cost shift onto the third tier of government just like the preceding Baird-Berejiklian-Perrottet coalition state government.

Minns and Cabinet decided to test the waters with the Emergency Services Levy on 28 April 2023.

From local councils, Revenue NSW collects payments that account for 11.7% of the costs of fire and emergency services in NSW. From insurers of property in the state it collects the remainder of the levy which is paid as part of insurance premiums. Payment is in four instalments over the relevant financial year.

In 2022-23 the Revenue NSW collection target for the Emergency Services Levy was $1.17 billion, with local councils paying est. $143 million of that total. It would appear that the 2023-24 target is significantly higher, with the total annual local government contribution expected to rise to est. $219 million - a 53.1% increase.

According to Clarence Valley Council's financial statements: in the 2019 financial year the Emergency Services Levy cost to council was $952,000; in 2020 it rose to $995,000; in 2021 it rose again to $1,131,000; and in 2022 this cost fell to $752,000.

As late as September 2022 IPART had been telling local government that: The NSW Government has undertaken to fully fund the increase in councils’ 2023-24 emergency services levy (ESL) contributions, so the rate peg does not include increases in the cost of the ESL.

Local Government NSW, News,1 May 2023:

Emergency Service Levy increase will be catastrophic for councils

The newly elected NSW Government has kicked off its first term in the worst possible way by sending NSW council budgets into meltdown, forcing them to shed jobs, close services and scrap infrastructure plans.

Councils’ peak body, Local Government NSW (LGNSW), said the decision to apply sky-high increases in the Emergency Services Levy (ESL) would be catastrophic for many councils, and could see some become insolvent.

LGNSW said that for some councils the unexpected cost hit would all but wipe out any IPART-approved rate rise, shredding budgets already under massive pressure from the combined impact of the pandemic, extreme weather events, high inflation and wage increases.

The ESL is a cost imposed on councils and the insurance industry to fund the emergency services budget in NSW. The majority is paid as part of insurance premiums, with a further 11.7 per cent picked up by councils and 14.6% by the State Government itself.

“The ESL is an absolutely blatant cost shift by the State Government,” LGNSW President Cr Darriea Turley AM said.

“To make things worse, the ESL has seen stratospheric increases year-on-year to make up for the Government’s unfunded workers' compensation liability for emergency services workers struck down by a range of cancers.

“Now it appears councils are being asked to fund massive rises in emergency services budgets, including a 73% increase in the budget allocation to the State Emergency Services (SES).

“The levy increase for the State’s 128 councils in 2023/24 alone sits just under $77 million.

“To put that in perspective, Hay Shire Council will immediately lose 88.6 per cent of its approved rate rise to the ESL, while Bourke Shire Council will lose 94%, Yass Valley Council will lose 96%, and Tenterfield will lose 119%.

“Hornsby council will lose about 75% of its approved rate rise.

“This is an alarming development coming late in the council budgeting cycle and well after the IPART’s rates determination for 2023-24.

“The effect will leave some councils with insufficient funds to cover cost increases in other areas. These costs will need to be met by cuts to staff and services.”

Cr Turley said the local government sector’s fight was not with emergency services workers, but with a duplicitous and financially unsustainable funding system.

“I’m seeking urgent talks with Treasurer Daniel Mookhey where I will ask him to work with councils to develop a fairer funding system,” she said.

“This shock increase comes at a time when council budgets are still struggling with flood and bushfire disaster recovery.

“When you factor in the inflation and soaring costs we are all facing across the full gamut of our operations, the immediate future looks particularly bleak.

“We are urgently calling on the Government to:

• restore the subsidy for 2023

• unshackle this payment from council rates

• develop a fairer, more transparent and financially sustainable method of funding the critically important emergency services that benefit us all.”

Clarence Valley Council, Our Performance, 2023/2024 Operational Plan, excerpt, May 2023:

The Draft Budget does include a 5.4 per cent rate peg which assist to cover cost escalations beyond Council's control such as costs related to materials and constructions, which are up 37 per cent, fuel and utilities, and the Local Government State Award salary and wage negotiations. The recent NSW Government decision to not subsidise the increase in the Emergency Services Levy adds a further strain on Council's resources.

The Echo, article excerpt, 5 May 2023:

At yesterday’s Tweed Shire Council (TSC) meeting it was revealed that the TSC had received the equivalent of a $540,000 levy, a significant increase on what was expected, drawing a quick response from councillors at the ‘bizarre’ and ‘unbelievable’ levy that is putting council in an ‘untenable position’ according to Tweed Mayor Chris Cherry.

The Emergency Services Levy is a contribution paid by all councils that funds all the emergency services across that shire. The issue is that the state government has not only significantly increased the levy, they have removed the subsidy that councils were previously receiving.

‘The $540,000 represents the equivalent of a 0.85 per cent rate increase,’ explained Tweed Council’s general manager, Troy Green.

‘That represents one-third of the special rate variation (SRV) that we’ve asked for.’

The Council can not use the SRV to pay for the levy as, if approved, it would have to be spent on the areas identified in the request for the SRV.

‘Council unfortunately has received this notification outside our rating cycle. So we have not been able to factor this in,’ said Cr Cherry.

The Council had budgeted for a four per cent increase in the emergency services levy, however, the increase by the state government for the next financial year is 24.28 per cent.

Coffs Harbour City Local Government Area has long had the reputation of being a bad neighbour to the Clarence Valley - this month it proves it once again

 

It doesn’t take long when discussing life on the ground during low rain periods along the Clarence River for the conversation to turn to Coffs Harbour City’s historical rapacious attitude when it comes to accessing Clarence River catchment water.

In 2023 we may be muttering about Coffs Harbour 'greed' again as Winter approaches and the Bureau of Meteorology May 2023 ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH - Braylesford and Newbold in the Clarence Valley are already listed as "Drought Affected" parishes on NSW Dept. of Primary Industries' Combined Drought Indicator mapping. 

Now it seems Coffs Harbour wishes to also gain a foothold within Clarence Valley landfill sites - as yet another lazy option to its long-term problems.

Coffs Harbour City 'red bin' solid garbage
IMAGE: ABC News, 10 May 2021

It appears that Coffs Harbour City Council sitting on a local landfill problem for at least two decades, has run through the goodwill of Nambucca, Bellingen & Tamworth and, finding the current landfill charges in south-east Queensland no longer to its liking, has decided that the Clarence Valley is the next best place to dump its unprocessed garbage.

At the Clarence Valley Council Ordinary Monthly Meeting on 18 April 2023 councillors unanimously vote to defer a decision until the outcome of the meetings proposed by Bellingen Shire Council for a regional waste solution are known.

However, Coffs Harbour continues with its approaches via the media.

The National Tribune, 11 May 2023:

City of Coffs Harbour is to ask the neighbouring councils of Clarence Valley and Nambucca Valley to allow access to their landfill sites for the City’s red bin waste for the next 4 years.

The City has processed the yellow and green bin waste for Bellingen and Nambucca Shires since 2007 and will continue to do so until the end of the current waste contract in 2027.

“Our neighbouring local government areas all have landfill sites that can accommodate residual red bin waste for decades to come,” said Andrew Beswick, the City’s Director Sustainable Infrastructure.

“In the meantime, our own waste facility is near capacity and we are having red bin waste trucked 3 times per day, 6 days per week to Queensland.

“The City would therefore welcome neighbourly assistance with accepting up to 15,000 tonnes each of the City’s residual red bin waste for the 4-year period ending June 2027. The City is offering payment for this service.

“We’re all interested in discussions over a regional plan for waste management after 2027, but the City’s immediate issue is the disposal of its red bin residual waste for the next 4 years.” …...

Cartoon of the Week

 

Two panels of a strip cartoon by First Dog On The Moon

Tweet of the Week

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia has made an ad, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative. #Budget2023 #auspol pic.twitter.com/Ar6FQIWLP2

— theJuiceMedia (@thejuicemedia) May 6, 2023

 

Is everyone with any authority still playing Pass The Parcel with the health and safety of communities on NSW coastal floodplains? Will the Northern Rivers see effective state planning legislation amendments before the next big flood? Will local governments across the region stiffen their spines & act?

The Echo, 11 May 2023:

Development site at 60 Tringa Street, Tweed Heads, on Cobaki Creek.

Both the Tweed District Residents Association (TDRA) and Kingscliff Ratepayers and Progress Association (KRPA) have recently called for a moratorium on existing legacy or zombie development approvals (DAs) on floodplains. The state government continues to say that councils have the ability to deal with these problematic DAs, but the evidence seems to say otherwise.

The failure of current legislation to stop legacy DAs is of particular concern to the TDRA which has been seeking stop work orders on the recent activity by MAAS Group Holdings at Tweed on Cobaki Creek. MAAS bought the property, with a 27-year-old legacy development approval on it, last year for $20M+ and have started clearing the sensitive site. The Tweed Council have asked MAAS to ‘cease work’, but MAAS have declined leaving both Council and locals frustrated with their inability to stop the work and have the site reassessed in relation to flood and environmental impacts of the DA.

NSW Premier

Responding to The Echo NSW Premier Chris Minns, who spoke to community representatives on the issue of legacy developments in the lead-up to the NSW election said, ‘My office will be working closely with the planning minister as the government works on new rules to stop new developments on dangerous floodplains – having been on the ground in the region over the past couple of years, I know how important it is to get this addressed.’

The Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) told The Echo that, ‘The government is committed to drafting new rules and streamlining planning processes to stop new developments on dangerous floodplains’ yet they have thrown responsibility back to councils saying they already have the legal power to look at legacy developments.

‘Councils already have legal power under the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act to take action against existing zombie developments, and DPE tightened planning rules in 2020 to clamp down on new ones,’ a DPE spokesperson said.

‘Councils also have powers to investigate and take enforcement action if they are concerned whether physical commencement has occurred, or if any part of the development does not comply with the relevant consent….

Action needed now

Peter Newton from KRPA responded to the DPE’s statement saying ‘it’s disappointing that the department has thrown this on Council’s shoulders given that it is obvious the legislation is not strong enough for Council to actually prevent legacy developments from proceeding, such as Cobaki, where the Council “cease” orders have been disregarded. The legislation is not working and needs the state government to step in and commit to reform.’

Tweed Council’s General Manager, Troy Green also highlighted the current failures in Council’s powers to take action on these types of DAs.

‘There has been no change in Council or state policy concerning floodplain development post the 2022 floods. The NSW State Government Flood Inquiry made various recommendations concerning floodplain development from which there have been no subsequent directions from the government,’ Mr Green told The Echo…...

Read the full article here.