Wednesday, 7 June 2023

In June 2023 Liberal-Nationals Coalition & Liberal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton still failing to breakthrough with the national electorate?

 

At the Saturday, 18 May 2019 Australian federal general election 15.8 million electors turned out to vote, with the vote result giving 77 seats in the House of Representatives to the Liberal-Nationals Coalition, 68 seats to the Labor Party and 6 seats to minor parties/independents.


Three years later the federal general election saw 15.4 million electors vote, with the vote result sending the Labor Party into government in the House of Representatives with 77 seats, the Liberal-Nationals Coalition forming the Opposition with 58 seats and minor parties/independents holding 16 seats.


Twelve months into the Albanese Government’s three-year term and there is a 10 point projected gap in TPP votes in its favour in the 4 June 2023 Newspoll. While there is a 27 point gap in Albanese’s favour when it comes to which leader is seen as better prime minister material.


The Coalition in June 2023 under Dutton is 8 points lower than the Coalition under Morrison in August 2019 (the first poll after the 2019 federal election) and, at 45 points, 2 points lower under Dutton than where the Coalition was placed on election day 2022. On the Newspoll continuum over the last twelve months Peter Dutton as party leader has never guided the Opposition to a poll score higher than 46 points.



Newspoll, 4 June 2023:



FEDERAL PRIMARY VOTE (FP)


Labor ALP 38 (no change)

Coalition Lib/NP 34 (no change)

Greens 12 (+1)

One Nation 6 (-1)



FEDERAL TWO-PARTY PREFERENTIAL VOTE (TPP)


Labor ALP 55 (no change)

Coalition Lib/NP 45 (no change)



BETTER PRIME MINISTER


Anthony Albanese 55 (-1)

Peter Dutton 28 (-1)



SUPPORT FOR THE INDIGENOUS & TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER VOICE TO PARLIAMENT REFERENDUM


YES 46%

NO 43%

UNDECIDED 11%



Sources:

The Australian newspaper, Newspoll, 4 June 2023
Twitter @GhostWhoVotes4 June 2023
Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), 2019, 2022.

Tuesday, 6 June 2023

"Eat The Rich" is an amusing conversational tag. But for how long?


For most Australians, income is the most important resource they have to meet their living costs. However, reserves of wealth can be drawn upon to maintain living standards in periods of reduced income or substantial unexpected expenses. Considering income and wealth together helps to better understand the economic wellbeing or vulnerability of households.”

[Australian Bureau Of Statistics, Household Income and Wealth, Australia, Reference period: 2019-20]


Given the grumbling coming from the opera boxes and dress circle seats in the Australian economy if it is suggested that those on low to middle incomes shouldn’t be solely responsible for fighting inflation by way of wage suppression, ever rising cost of living & below poverty line unemployment benefits, perhaps it’s time to remember some of the cream within the Top 1% and how richly they live in an Australian population of est. 26,510,186 men, women and children spread out across this country. [ABS, Population Clock, 4 June 2023 at 8:15am]


Forbes, Australia’s 50 Richest 2023, 15 February 2023:


NAME          NET WORTH          INDUSTRY


1. Gina Rinehart   $30.6 B         Metals & Mining

2. Andrew Forrest   $21.7 B      Metals & Mining

3. Harry Triguboff     $15.5 B    Real Estate

4. Bianca Rinehart & siblings   $12.5 B   Metals & Mining

5. Anthony Pratt   $11.6 B        Manufacturing

6. Mike Cannon-Brookes  $10.8 B Technology

7. Scott Farquhar   $10.6 B      Technology

8. Cliff Obrecht & Melanie Perkins   $7.2 B Technology

9. Frank Lowy   $6 B                 Finance & Investments

10. Richard White   $5.4 B        Technology

11. John, Alan & Bruce Wilson   $5.1 B Fashion & Retail

12. Kerry Stokes   $4.2 B          Diversified

13. John Gandel   $3.5 B          Real Estate

14. Lindsay Fox   $3.4 B           Logistics

15. Jack Cowin   $3.35 B          Food & Beverage

16. Michael Hintze   $3.2 B       Finance & Investments

17. James Packer   $2.8 B        Finance & Investments

18. Lang Walker   $2.7 B           Real Estate

19. Fiona Geminder   $2.6 B     Manufacturing

20. Brett Blundy   $2.45 B         Fashion & Retail

21. Solomon Lew   $2.3 B         Fashion & Retail

22. Bob Ell   $2.25 B                  Real Estate

23. Len Ainsworth & family   $2.2 B Gambling & Casinos

24. Heloise Pratt   $2.15 B        Manufacturing

25. Clive Palmer   $2.1 B           Metals & Mining

26. Gerry Harvey   $2.05 B        Fashion & Retail

27. Kie Chie Wong   $2 B          Metals & Mining

28. Hains family   $1.95 B         Finance & Investments

29. Cameron Adams   $1.8 B    Technology

30. Chris Wallin   $1.75 B         Energy

31. Terry Snow   $1.61 B           Real Estate

32. Bruce Mathieson   $1.6 B   Real Estate

33. Chris Ellison   $1.59 B        Metals & Mining

34. Angela Bennett   $1.55 B    Metals & Mining

35. Gretel Packer   $1.54 B       Finance & Investments

36. David Teoh   $1.53 B           Telecom

37. Nigel Austin   $1.5 B           Fashion & Retail

38. Tony & Ron Perich   $1.42 B   Real Estate

39. John Van Lieshout   $1.41 B   Real Estate

40. Anthony Hall   $1.4 B          Technology

41. Jack Gance & family   $1.35 B   Fashion & Retail

42. Mario Verrocchi & family   $1.34 B   Fashion & Retail

43. Sam Hupert $  1.3 B           Technology

44. Sam Tarascio   $1.25 B       Real Estate

45. Sam Kennard & siblings   $1.2 B  Real Estate

46. Michael Heine   $1.19 B      Finance & Investments

47. Manny Stul   $1.18 B           Manufacturing

48. Mark Creasy    $1.02 B        Metals & Mining

49. Alan Rydge    $1 B              Media & Entertainment

50. Kerr Neilson    $960 M        Finance & Investments


Globally only Monaco and Switzerland have higher individual net wealth than Australia. In this country in 2022 the Top 1% had individual wealth beginning at $5.5 million to >$30 billion, yet before it was driven from office the Morrison Coalition Government locked in an overly generous permanent tax cut for the wealthy in our society. Along with a negative gearing regime for property investment which is concentrating residential property ownership in the hands of richer individuals and families.


While the bottom wealth percentiles - including the homeless, unemployed, working age poor & elderly without assets or savings - recognising the taxation rate/negative gearing sleight-of-hand involved are left wondering how long they can manage to put a roof over their heads and food on the table now and into the foreseeable future.


IMAGE: Twitter via @MaggieDaWitch
4 June 2023



Monday, 5 June 2023

NSW GOVERNMENT 'NORTHERN RIVERS RESILIENT LAND STRATEGY' STATE OF PLAY 2023: in its current form not worth the paper it is printed on

 


Northern Rivers Resilient Lands Strategy –Summary Report: Helping provide a safer, more sustainable and more resilient Northern Rivers, 1 June 2023:


The Northern Rivers Resilient Lands Strategy is part of the Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation (NRRC)’s $100 million Resilient Lands Program.


The Resilient Lands Program is part of a suite of measures the NRRC is coordinating to deliver a sustainable supply of land and housing for flood

impacted residents in high risk areas in the Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley and Tweed Local Government Areas.


The Resilient Lands Program has been designed to complement, not replace, business-as-usual land release and housing development in the region. The Resilient Land Strategy identifies land that will be accelerated for delivery with funding support provided under the Program.


The Resilient Lands Program is being delivered in conjunction with the NRRC’s $700 million Resilient Homes Program that focuses on raising, retrofitting and voluntary purchase of homes impacted by the 2022 floods.


After the Acknowledgement Of Country the aforementioned four short paragraphs are the NSW Government, Dept. of Regional NSW & Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation (NRRC)’s introduction to its long awaited draft resilient lands strategy.


It goes on in the Foreword to state:


The Strategy identifies 22 sites that could support

climate resilient residential development across each

of the Northern Rivers Local Government Areas. Fifteen

sites have been earmarked for immediate on-ground

investigations, to enable flood impacted residents to

move out of areas severely impacted by the 2022 floods.


The Strategy also identifies a further seven sites of

strategic significance for long-term resilience. These

sites that are identified as potentially suitable for

development in the longer term may help reduce the

need to undertake a similar region-wide land suitability

assessment should future natural disasters occur in

the Northern Rivers.


The authors of this draft document end the eight paragraph Foreword with a nausea inducing bout of self-congratulation:


The Resilient Lands Expert Panel, who has assisted in

the preparation of the document, is thankful that our

skills and professional expertise have been able to

contribute to the recovery initiative but humbled by the

experience of people who lived through the flood event,

many of whom remain impacted. We hope that this

document will assist in ensuring that safe and secure

accommodation can be made available for all affected

going forward.


That last paragraph on Page 5 completed setting the tone for what is essentially a twenty-four page collection of pious wishes, vaguely-worded ‘plans’ and the carefully worded announcement of a funding feeding frenzy by land speculators and both private & corporate property developers.


Given the political influence of the development & construction industry lobbies, it is easy to suspect that ‘affordable housing’ will be taking a back seat in the NSW Minns Labor Government’s specific plans for north-east New South Wales – albeit these plans were inherited from the Berejiklian-Perrottet Coalition Government which preceded it.


At Pages 7 & 8 the draft document states:


Land identified in the Strategy was also reviewed by the Resilient Lands Expert Panel (the Panel), an independent panel of experts with backgrounds in urban planning, environmental management, community development, Indigenous knowledge and climate resilience.


The Panel’s recommendations identified 22 short, medium and long-term development sites across the seven Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Ballina, Byron, Clarence Valley, Kyogle, Lismore, Richmond Valley and Tweed with potential capacity for up to 10,300 dwellings.


Work has now commenced on the planning and delivery of the 15 short-term sites identified within the Strategy. This will ensure residents impacted by the 2022 floods can relocate to new housing as soon as possible.


The Strategy also identifies a further seven medium and long-term sites for broader regional planning efforts to support longer term community resilience.


What does the Resilient Lands Strategy mean for

residents impacted by the floods?


The Strategy identifies a total of 22 potential development sites across the Northern Rivers on both private and public land. Fifteen sites are for immediate investigation for flood impacted residents with capacity for approximately 7,800 dwellings. Seven further sites with capacity for approximately 2,500 dwellings have been identified as sites of strategic significance for longer term resilience…..


Why doesn’t the NRRC just acquire and develop land?


In some instances, acquisition and development of land by government will have a role to play under the Program. However, using a range of approaches that aim to remove barriers and encourage the delivery of land and housing by the development sector and government will maximise housing supply outcomes across the region.


For example, using the entire $100 million available under the Resilient Lands Program to acquire land and develop housing could be expected to deliver approximately 200–300 dwellings to the market over the next three to four years.


On the other hand, a modest, up-front investment by government to deliver important water and sewer infrastructure upgrades that are preventing the release of land can unlock significant housing supply and better support the feasibility and delivery of residential development areas.


Taking an approach that is tailored to the characteristics of each individual site will ensure the Program delivers the most housing in the right locations as possible.


Where any financial support is provided to the development sector through the Resilient Lands Program, it will be conditional on prioritising access to any new housing for flood affected residents.


I think that the Labor MLA for Lismore Janelle Saffin put it best when she told ABC News on Friday, 2 May 2023:


Ms Saffin said the corporation's communication skills left many questions unanswered.


"We are desperate for detail, our community that has been physically and psychologically battered, and this doesn't give us any more detail about when, time frames, how, who," Ms Saffin said.


"I've been a very vocal critic of the NRRC's inability to communicate and this release just highlights it even more."….


"We've all watched the series Utopia [and] the idea of comms management is not to do anything," Ms Saffin said.


While Greens MLA For Ballina Tamara Smith was quoted in The Guardian on the same day:


The MP for Ballina, Tamara Smith, called on the government to release better maps that provide more detail.


How can we as a community make informed submissions about what will be huge new residential developments when we don’t actually know where they are?” she said.


Our community deserves utter transparency and I am disappointed that we are not getting more information in order to make meaningful submissions to the draft.”


In another section of that article these succinct quotes also mirrored the feelings of more than a few locals:


A mayor who spoke to Guardian Australia on condition of anonymity said they believed the government was being “very optimistic” with its goals, calling the lack of detail so far provided to councils and the community “really crap”.


This is an example of mapping used in the draft document at Pages 15 to 22:




It would appear that the state government and its agencies are determined to play those land strategy cards close to their chest and at the same time minimise whatever negative media reports may emerge.


It is doing this by treating the entire Northern Rivers regional population of est. 312,747 men, women and children (.idcommunity, 2022) as so many mushrooms which need to be kept in the dark. At the same time holding a media briefing in which the Draft Resilient Lands Strategy was explained in some detail (accompanied by visual aids) and all journalists questions answered—under a total ban on dissemination of said information by said journalists.


This Northern Rivers resident’s assessment of the state of play in June 2023?


The NSW Government, Dept. of Regional NSW and Northern Rivers Reconstruction Corporation have provided local government and communities with:

  1. no genuine time frame;

  2. broad statements but no real details;

  3. an incorrect assessment of some land being shovel ready for development in 2024;

  4. maps so ill-defined that they are all but useless in identifying which land is to be developed;

  5. no outline of the type/number/provisional costings of tenders that might be required for land preparation and supporting infrastructure or tenders which have already been approved; and

  6. an unrealistic expectation that this particular Resilient Lands Strategy can deliver what has been promised to the people of the Northern Rivers region.


Sunday, 4 June 2023

What Australian Unions declared to be "the largest increase to minimum and Award wages in Australia’s history" occurred on Thursday 1 June 2023 - effective 1 July

 

This was Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) Secretary Sally McManus writing on the Australian Unions website, 2 June 2023:


Today the Fair Work Commission announced that workers on the national minimum wage will receive a pay rise of 8.6 per cent. Workers on Award wages will have their pay increased by 5.75 per cent. Both of those increases will come into effect in the first pay period after 1 July 2023.


The union movement fought hard for this pay increase. Up against us were the big business lobby – who argued for a real-wage cut.


All union members should be proud of this pay rise. It’s the largest increase to minimum and Award wages in Australia’s history.


It’s what unions do – we use our strength in numbers to ensure that working peoples’ pay gets moving again.


Increasing pay is the most important step to reducing the impact of the cost-of-living crisis….


Come July 2023 the approx. 20.5 per cent of Australian employees (est. 2.75 million individuals) who are paid in accordance with minimum wage rates in modern awards and the 0.7 per cent of Australian employees (est. 180,000 individuals) paid the National Minimum Wage – workers who are also much more likely to be low paid, mostly work part-time hours, are predominantly female, almost half being casual employees and probably having no entitled to paid leave – will see more dollars in their pay packets.


According to The Guardian on 2 June 2023, the Fair Work Commission’s statement indicates the minimum wages will increase to $882.80 per week or $23.23 per hour.

This appears to translate to a new hourly rate of $23.21 for those on the National Minimum Wage.


Based on ABS labour force numbers for April 2023, it is expected that up to 21 per cent of the current 13.87 million strong national workforce may benefit from these minimum wage rate rises.


Given that an est. 54,927 employees in Northern Rivers region worked part-time by 2021 and an est. 35,028 were female, there may be quite a few local residents with a little more in their pay packets next month.


However, as most of the modern award-reliant workforce is employed under a relatively small number of modern awards covering specific industries or occupations, the effect of the Fair Work Commission Annual Wage Review 2022-23 Decision differs markedly between industry sectors and, along with the increase in the National Minimum Wage will have a limited effect on the national wages bill.


Which is not to say that employer lobby groups will not be frequenting newspaper, radio and television platforms voicing ‘the sky is falling’ predictions over the next week.


Friday, 2 June 2023

TETRIARY EDUCATION STATE OF PLAY 2023: Australia took 121 years to finally establish national free university education and less than 33 years to totally destroy the idea that tertiary education should be fee free

 

In 1974 the Whitlam Labor Government gave the Commonwealth full control over higher education funding and made a university education free for those who met the educational entrance requirements of tertiary institutions.


In 1976 the Fraser Coalition Government tried to re-introduced tuition fees for post-graduate and second degrees as well as for tuition fees for foreign students – with limited success.


However by 1983 the international and national economic climate began to test the resolve of the incoming Hawke Labor Government and in the August 1988 Budget it announced that it would introduce university tuition fees via the Higher Education Funding Act 1988 (HECS).


The scheme was to have only one rate of contribution ($1,800 in 1989) and an up-front payment discount of 15 per cent on tuition fees. Repayment of the HECS debt was to begin once the university graduate began to earn a wage over the compulsory repayment threshold and, any unpaid HECS debts would be discharged on the death of the graduate.


In the following years the Hawke and Keating Labor Governments tinkered with repayment schedules and introduced new schemes based on HECS repayment arrangements for specific groups of students.


However it was during the years of the Howard Coalition Government that the floodgates were fully opened allowing the ‘user pays’ rationale to begin flooding across higher education. The debt repayment threshold kicked in at a lower annual income and universities were given greater licence to use ‘market forces’ as a tool in setting course fees, amongst other measures.


This increased emphasis on ‘user pays’ tertiary education did not cease during the years of the subsequent Rudd & Gillard Labor Governments and the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison Coalition Governments – with Abbott’s deregulation of university fees combined with his cuts to the level of government funding of universities being significant.


So although by 2020 there were 1,057,777 domestic students studying at Australia’s 39 comprehensive universities, just 60% of first-year domestic students enrolled in undergraduate courses were aged 20 or younger, the lowest proportion since 2005 [Universities Australia, 2022 Higher Education Facts and Figures, June 2022]. Additionally, by 2021 the attrition rate showed that est. 24.2% of all enrolled university students did not complete their degree, with some indication that slightly more male students than female students might be failing to complete [Dept. of Education, Higher Education Statistics, October 2022]. By 2022 only 32% of the Australian population aged between 15-74 years of age held a bachelor degree of higher [ABS, Education and Work, Australia, May 2022].


One has to wonder what the future chilling effect on higher education choices by school leavers and mature aged students might be with the changes to student loan debt indexation announced by the Albanese Labor Government in May 2023.


National Tertiary Education Union, media release, 1 June 2023:


New report reveals some degrees could take up to 44 years to repay


A new report released by the National Tertiary Education Union (NTEU) has revealed repayment periods for some university degrees may extend up to 44 years, raising serious concerns about the accessibility and affordability of higher education in Australia.


The report, titled "The Future of Graduate Debt in Australia," reveals that under current policy settings, repayment periods for certain degrees could exceed 40 years.


Many four-year degrees could end up costing more than $100,000 once debts are repaid.


The study indicates that graduates from a Business Management degree are likely to be the worst affected, with a staggering repayment period of 44 years, totalling $119,331.


The modelling shows a Humanities and Social Sciences Honours degree could take 40 years to repay at a cost of $110,353.


Female law graduates could take 36 years to pay off their qualification, four years more than their male counterparts.


The report's release comes a day ahead of repayments on the Higher Education Loans Program (HELP) debts – also known as HECS - rising 7.1 per cent when they are indexed on Thursday.


Current total outstanding HELP debt stands at $74.3 billion for the financial year ending 2022, around four times as much as 2009.


The average amount of student debt is now $24,770 per student, up from $15,191 in 2012. Students now take an average of 9.5 years to pay off their degree, compared to 7.3 years in 2006.


The report, compiled using data from across the sector, shows a combination of newly increased course fees under the Jobs Ready Graduates Reforms, reduced repayment income thresholds, and high debt indexation are to blame for the spiralling repayment crisis.


NTEU National President Dr Alison Barnes said the findings were a serious concern.


"This report paints a startling picture of the current state of tertiary education. We are seeing students who may be paying off their debts for the majority of their working lives," Dr Barnes said.


"This is not what higher education should look like. It's a barrier to equality which must be a core principle of our universities."


"We are seeing the toxic legacy of the radioactive half life of the Coalition's Jobs Ready Graduates model.


"But despite that serious damage, we are hopeful the current federal government is serious about tackling these issues to create better universities for students and staff.


"Education is a fundamental right and should not lead to decades of financial burden. We need to address this issue.


"We will continue to engage positively with the government to ensure students aren't saddled with lifelong debt into the future."


Assumptions in the report:

* Wage growth: 2.3% – the average of the last 10 years

* Indexation rate: begins at 7.07% then falls to 2.2% over the next 7 years – 2.2% is the average indexation applied over the last 19 years

* Starting salaries are those for the industry linked to each program

* In the model repayment thresholds are indexed at the same rate as student debt