On 8 November 2024 US president-elect and convicted fraudster, 78 year-old Donald John Trump made the following announcement ushering in an authoritarian state, headed by a president intent on revenge against those he perceives as his enemies and retribution for a long list of delusional grievances.
The Heritage Foundation and the Project 2025 Advisory Board - along with Donald Trump himself - have repeatedly denied any association with each other. Unfortunately these denials have proved to be untruths.
Project 2025 922-page 180-Day Playbook at
https://www.project2025.org/playbook/
and
https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf
Australia's initial reaction to Trump's election win is a mixture of caution and dread....
Financial
Review,
7 November 2024:
President-elect
Donald Trump will likely be a unilateralist in his dealings with
Australia and the rest of the world, neither a pre-World War Two
isolationist nor the post-war global policeman.
Trump’s
highly transactional view of life means he will take America in and
out of world affairs as and when it suits his mercurial personality.
He will approach each international relationship through the prism of
what is in it for him. For Trump, the geopolitical is personal.....
The
immediate risk for Australia is Trump’s flagship policy of tariffs
on imports, which threaten a 60 per cent charge on Chinese goods and
up to 20 per cent on all others. Robert Lighthizer, his hawkish
former trade representative who is tipped to return to the new
administration, doesn’t believe that free trade works. He argues
that America did not lose its microchip industry because of a lack of
comparative advantage, but because of the subsidies and industry
policies of other countries. He also thinks it has been China’s
choice not to open more of its domestic market to better balance its
trade with the US.
Australia
is a small open economy highly exposed to the ripple effects of an
all-out US-China trade war. ANU economist Warwick McKibbin says that
because China takes a massive 47 per cent of Australia’s goods
exports, the collateral damage to Australia from a Sino-US tariff
fight could mean a hit on the economy of 0.3 per cent of GDP a year
by 2035. In America, the proposed tariffs would rekindle inflation,
forcing up interest rates and the cost of funding immense US debts.
That will keep upward pressure on global interest rates too, making
it harder for the Reserve Bank to cut rates here. On the other hand,
China may have kept fiscal stimulus plans in reserve for a Trump
trade clash, from which Australia would gain.
Australia
will watch closely how Trump treats wider US alliances in the
Pacific.
The
mutual harm of a trade war might pave the way to negotiating instead.
Trump might be content to use the threat of tariffs to push for
concessions from trade partners. And if tariffs were to be
implemented, the heavy cost to US consumers and the damage to US
exporters hit by retaliatory tariffs could see Congress itself water
them down to more selective targeting. Australia could blunt some of
the impact of any tariff changes by successfully negotiating
reductions as it did for steel and aluminium exports during the first
Trump administration.
Australia
will watch closely how Trump treats wider US alliances in the
Pacific, the so-called “lattice work” of partnerships built up by
the Biden administration connecting Japan, South Korea, the
Philippines, India, and Australia.
Trump
has a much more insular vision of American power, viewing long-term
commitments to international alliances as liabilities the US could do
without. Yet if he leaves a strategic vacuum by quitting the region
then China, Russia and others would move fast to fill it. And it
would not be long before even a more self-contained Trump America
began feeling the pressure of an expanding China. Trump would find
that turning his back on allies was a more costly transaction than he
thought.
The
Sydney Morning Herald,
7 November 2024:
Donald
Trump’s policy agenda could precipitate a global financial crisis
and fuel inflation, one of the world’s leading analysts has warned,
with fears Australians will suffer higher interest rates and a $36
billion hit to the domestic economy.
As
the Reserve Bank conceded the incoming US president’s debt-fuelled
policies would put upward pressure on global interest rates, former
bank board member Warwick McKibbin likened the impact of Trump’s
plans on Australia to being in the middle of a line of fireworks as
they exploded on New Year’s Eve.
Trump’s
plans also pose enormous political problems for Prime Minister
Anthony Albanese and Liberal leader Peter Dutton in the lead-up to
next year’s election, with analysis suggesting even winning some
concessions from the Trump administration would not prevent ongoing
turmoil for Australia.
Interest
rates globally have climbed since Trump’s victory over US Vice
President Kamala Harris, fuelled by expectations his plans for tax
cuts, tariffs and the deportation of millions of undocumented workers
will increase the size of American government debt.
The
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent US
organisation, estimates the Trump agenda would increase debt by
$US7.8 trillion ($12 trillion) by 2035, taking it to an unprecedented
143 per cent of GDP.
Following
Wednesday’s election results, the Australian dollar – among many
currencies – lost value against the US dollar as investors bet a
further lift in American government debt would require higher
interest rates.
More
speculative investments such as cryptocurrencies also enjoyed a surge
in support. The price of bitcoin lifted from $104,500 early on
Wednesday to a record high of $116,000 in the 21 hours after Trump’s
re-election became clear.
Giving
evidence to a Senate hearing in Canberra, Reserve Bank assistant
governor Christopher Kent said Trump’s policies such as tax cuts
would probably mean higher US long-term interest rates and inflation,
which would flow through to the global economy.
“Because
the US is such an important source of funding, and the demand by the
government for borrowing is substantial, that’ll have upward
effects on global interest rates,” he said.
Kent
said Trump’s protectionist tariff policies would slow growth around
the world.....
McKibbin
said Trump’s tariff plan, which includes imposts of 10 to 20 per
cent on Australian goods and 60 per cent on those from China, would
directly hit the local economy while undermining global trade.
But
the broader elements of Trump’s agenda, especially possible
interference in the setting of American interest rates, could deliver
the world another financial crisis.
“It’s
like standing on Sydney Harbour Bridge when they set off the
fireworks – you don’t want to be on it. There are fuses
everywhere and they are just going to ignite,” McKibbin said.
Nationwide
News,
7 October 2024:
The
Reserve Bank claims there could be an “adverse effect” on
Australia if incoming US President Donald Trump were to impose
tariffs of up to 60 per cent on China.
During
senate estimates on Wednesday, RBA assistant governor Christopher
Kent said it was a “big concern“ whether Mr Trump follows through
on the levies of Chinese-made goods, but added the full-effect was
still unclear.
The
levies would be higher than the 7.5 to 25 per cent implemented during
his first time.
They
are considered part of a broader suite of measures to boost the US
economy, which also includes broad tariff increases on all imports of
up to 10 per cent, cutting taxes, slashing immigration, and
deregulation.
“The
big concern is large tariffs on China, which may have an adverse
effect on us,” he said.
“So
is it right to characterise the RBA position as of this morning as
unclear in terms of what the United States election outcome means for
inflation outlooks.”
Speaking
more broadly, he said Mr Trump’s promised tariffs would likely
”push up” the US dollar and create less demand by the US for
goods produced in other markets.
“But
it means less demand by the US for global goods, so that’s sort of
a negative for growth elsewhere,” he said.....
UPDATE
Trump with the bit between his teeth on 15 December 2022.....
