Tuesday 20 January 2009

Possum explains those Australian unemployment figures



It is always a joy to see Possum Comitatus breakdown the gobbledegook surrounding government agency statistics.

The Statistical Reality of the Unemployment Figures post was no exception and, although a job lost involves real pain (something we know well in the NSW Northern Rivers), it was enlightening to see how the statistical margin of error played out in the latest numbers:

The actual Labor Force Survey results can be
easily downloaded, and toward the end of the document – pages 28 and 29 to be exact – the ABS has gone to the trouble of providing the standard errors of not only the point estimates of all the unemployment metrics, but also the standard errors of the monthly change in those metrics. It's quite nice of them to do that since the press doesn't seem to pay any bloody attention to them whatsoever. But their incompetence aside, what these standard errors allow us to do is create a maximum margin or error for the unemployment figures using a 95% Confidence Interval – just as we do with the polling, and more particularly, Pollytrack.....

First up, the change in Full Time job numbers. The seasonally adjusted point estimate suggested that 43,900 full time jobs were lost between November and December of 08. We can be nearly 100% confident that the 43,900 figure that is getting so much attention isn't actually true.

What we can say is that there is a 95% probability that the true change in full time job numbers was somewhere between a gain of 6300 full time jobs and a loss of 94100 jobs, for the margin or error attached to the 43900 full time job loss figure is a whopping 50200. .....

On the trend figures, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4%, full time employment dropped by 11,200 nationally and total employment increased by 2000.

Far from this being a terrible result requiring widespread bouts of wrist slashing – in the broader scheme of things and considering the state of the international economy, it's probably a remarkably good result. I say 'probably' because we must acknowledge the large uncertainty involved in the figures - the point estimates really aren't the gospel they are too often made out to be.

What happens in the future is unknowable, things might tank, things might not - but what we should all be aware of is just how much uncertainty is actually contained in these figures.

Of course it would be too optimistic to hope that Malcolm Turnbull and friends would approach these figures with a degree of calm.

Over at Liberal Party headquarters they were shouting out that there will be More Than Half A Million Australians Out Of Work and waxing lyrical about the Howard years.

While Access Economics (in attention getting language aimed at front page media coverage) is predicting 300,000 jobs will be lost in the next twelve months, but also appears to be predicting modest national growth by 2009-10.

By late last night Channel 10 News had hysterically taken the figure higher to a million unemployed

Think I'll place my trust in Poss and wait for more concrete figures to come in over the next year. Access Economics director Chris Richardson now cries Wolf! so often that I no longer find his media announcments all that credible.

Monsanto, I presume........


Cartoon found at Red, Green and Blue
environmental politics from across the spectrum

* This post is part of North Coast Voices' effort to keep Monsanto's blog monitor (affectionately known as Mr. Monsanto) in long-term employment.

Change might be in the air, but America is also in a retrospective mood


Think Progress gives a run down on the outgoing Bush Administration in The Top 43 Appointees Who Helped Make Bush The Worst President Ever:

1. Dick Cheney — The worst Dick since Nixon. The man who shot his friend while in office. The “most powerful and controversial vice president.” Until he got the job, people used to actually think it was a bad thing that the vice presidency has historically been a do-nothing position. Asked by PBS’s Jim Lehrer about why people hate him, Cheney rejected the premise, saying, “I don’t buy that.” His top placement in our survey says otherwise.

2. Karl Rove — There wasn’t a scandal in the Bush administration that Rove didn’t have his fingerprints all over — see Plame, Iraq war deception, Gov. Don Siegelman, U.S. Attorney firings, missing e-mails, and more. As senior political adviser and later as deputy chief of staff, “The Architect” was responsible for politicizing nearly every agency of the federal government.

3. Alberto GonzalesFundamentally dishonest and woefully incompetent, Gonzales was involved in a series of scandals, first as White House counsel and then as Attorney General. Some of the most notable: pressuring a “feeble” and “barely articulate” Attorney General Ashcroft at his hospital bedside to sign off on Bush’s illegal wiretapping program; approving waterboarding and other torture techniques to be used against detainees; and leading the firing of U.S. Attorneys deemed not sufficiently loyal to Bush.

4. Donald Rumsfeld — After winning praise for leading the U.S. effort in ousting the Taliban from Afghanistan in 2001, the former Defense Secretary strongly advocated for the invasion of Iraq and then grossly misjudged and mishandled its aftermath. Rumsfeld is also responsible for authorizing the use of torture against terror detainees in U.S. custody; according to a bipartisan Senate report, Rumsfeld “conveyed the message that physical pressures and degradation were appropriate treatment for detainees.”

5. Michael Brown — This former commissioner of the International Arabian Horse Association was appointed by Bush to head FEMA in 2003. After Katrina made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane, Brownie promptly did a “heck of a jobbungling the government’s relief efforts, and was sent back to Washington a few days later. He was forced to resign shortly thereafter.

6. Paul Wolfowitz — As Deputy Secretary of Defense from 2001 to 2005, Wolfowitz was one of the primary architects of the Iraq war, arguing for the invasion as early as Sept. 15, 2001. Testifying before Congress in February 2003, Wolfowitz said that it was “hard to conceive that it would take more forces to provide stability in post-Saddam Iraq than it would take to conduct the war itself.” Wolfowitz eventually admitted that “for bureaucratic reasons, we settled on one issue, weapons of mass destruction,” as a justification for war, “because it was the one reason everyone [in the administration] could agree on.”

7. David Addington — “Cheney’s Cheney” was the “most powerful man you’ve never heard of.” As the leader of Bush’s legal team and Cheney’s chief of staff, Addington was the biggest proponent of some of Bush’s most notorious legal abuses, such as torture and warrantless surveillance, and is a loyal follower of the so-called unitary executive theory.

8. Stephen Johnson — The “Alberto Gonzales of the environment,” EPA Administrator Johnson subverted the agency’s mission at the behest of the White House and corporate interests, suppressing staff recommendations on pesticides, mercury, lead paint, smog, and global warming.

9. Douglas Feith — Undersecretary of Defense for Policy from 2001-2005, Feith headed up the notorious Office of Special Plans, an in-house Pentagon intelligence shop devised by Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz to produce intelligence to justify the invasion of Iraq. A subsequent investigation by the Pentagon’s Inspector General found the OSP’s work produced “conclusions that were not fully supported by the available intelligence.”

10. John Bolton — As Undersecretary of State, Bolton offered a strong voice in favor of invading Iraq and pushed for the U.S. to disengage from the International Criminal Court and key international arms control agreements. A recess appointment landed Bolton the job of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, despite his stringent animosity toward the world body. Today, he spends his time calling for war with Iran.

11. John Yoo — As a lawyer for the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, Yoo authored a series of legal memosdetainee to be buried alive.

12. Ari Fleischer — Bush’s first press secretary helped redefine the role as that of liar-in-chief rather than informer of the public, earning a reputation as “the world’s most dishonest flack.” Whereas his successors sometimes looked uncomfortable lying, Fleischer was having fun, spinning a cowed and gullible press corps through two massive tax cuts and the initiation of a war undertaken on false pretenses.

13. John Ashcroft — In 2003, as Bush’s first Attorney General, Ashcroft approved waterboarding and other torture techniques on detainees. Ashcroft’s nomination was controversial, as he had a history of opposing school desegregation. The chief architect of the invasive Patriot Act, Ashcroft maintains to this day that Bush is “among the most respectful of all leaders ever” of civil liberties.

14. Henry Paulson — Even as the financial system was crashing down around him, Treasury Secretary Paulson insisted for months that the banking system was “safe and sound.” Once he decided that the economy needed saving, Paulson requested nearly unfettered authority to send billions of taxpayer dollars to banks with no oversight.

15. L. Paul Bremer — This Presidential Medal of Freedom winner took over the Coalition Provisional Authority in May 2003. Under his mismanagement, the insurgency exploded in Iraq. Bremer claimed he had all the troops he needed to secure the country, overestimated the strength of the new U.S.-trained Iraqi army, disbanded the Iraqi army leaving thousands of Iraqi soldiers with no income and no occupation, and enacted a de-Baathification law that barred many experienced Iraqis from government positions.

Numbers 16 to 43 here.

This urge to evaluate the Bush presidency will not last long however - President-elect Obama is already placing such a heavy gloss on those years that it almost amounts to an initial re-write.

I mean, I think personally he is a good man who loves his family and loves his country," Obama said in an exclusive interview with CNN's John King....
Obama also said he thought Bush made "the best decisions that he could at times under some very difficult circumstances."

Monday 19 January 2009

Google signs amicus brief in support of gay rights

Google Inc is determined to give off-again, on-again gay rights supporter Governor Arnold The Terminator Schwarzenegger a run for his money and pro-actively support both its own diverse workforce and the gay citizens of California.

It is doing this by aligning itself with a constitutional challenge to Proposition 8 (voted into being in November 2008) which legally restricts the definition of marriage and therefore makes unlawful same-sex marriage in that state.

Well done, Google!

Here is the notice posted on the Google Blog:

1/15/2009 05:00:00 PM

In September of last year, Google announced its opposition to California's Proposition 8. While the campaign was emotionally charged and difficult for both sides, in the wake of the election many were concerned with the impact Proposition 8 could have on the personal lives of people they work with every day, and on California's ability to attract and retain a diverse mix of employees from around the world.

That's why we've signed an
amicus brief (PDF file) in support of several cases currently challenging Proposition 8 in the California Supreme Court. Denying employees basic rights isn't right, and it isn't good for businesses. We are committed to preserving fundamental rights for every one of the people who work hard to make Google a success.

Please
join us in continuing to fight for equality for all Californians.


Wikipedia history of Proposition 8

Indonesia refuses to assist Japan's whaling fleet



Indonesia did not receive any formal objections from Japan after the government rejected a Japanese whaling vessel's request to dock for repairs at a shipyard in Surabaya, East Java Province, the Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

"I can't comment on the details, but our position on the conservation of endangered species, including whales, is clear," said Teuku Faizasyah, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

The Yushin Maru 2, a registered Japanese harpoon whaling ship, was forced to leave Indonesian waters this week after failing to get approval from Indonesian authorities to dock at the state-owned PT PAL shipyard to repair a damaged propeller.

The Japanese Consulate General in Surabaya had guaranteed the vessel would not illegally fish in Indonesian waters.

Sumarto Suharno, head of the East Java Natural Resources Conservation Office, or KSDA, asked that the vessel be ordered to leave because the ship was used to hunt an endangered species......

A 1999 government regulation on endangered plants and animals formally protects blue whales, humpback whales and fin whales. The Japanese vessel was fishing for these species.

But Faizasyah said Indonesia welcomed cooperation with other countries on the whaling issue.

"It appears that our policies are similar to Australia's," he said.

Pramudya Harzani, an official with the Jakarta Animal Aid Network, said that the whaling vessel left the shipyard on Friday.

He acknowledged that Indonesia has its own whaling tradition, particularly on Lembata Island in East Nusa Tenggara Province. Villagers there have been known to hunt blue whales and sperm whales.

"It has never been a commercial operation, however," he said.

Japan's Institute of Cetacean Research has had little to say on the subject of this docking ban.

And then I woke up screaming...............

Gawd struth!
Because John Winston Howard did not have the good grace to go quietly into retirement, is constantly touting for international testimonials to his political acumen, is always popping up in the media to offer gratuitous advice and let it be known that he still feels like Teh Leader - I have this recurring nightmare.
I dream that il grande fascista has a long discussion with Hyacinth and the kids and calls a press conference where (flanked by Tony Abbott) he announces he is going to stand for parliament again.
AAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sunday 18 January 2009

Stephen Conroy's all a-Twitter


Screenshot from PerthNorg


The Minister for Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy, Stephen Conroy, has an alter-ego on Twitter.

His profile reads like a strange phantasy.

Bio I'm a 45 year old politician who'll do anything to please you, baby. Don't worry girl, I gots "protection", and it'll degrade my performance all night long...

This other 'Stephen' was having a little fun at the Senator's expense this last week:

Today I received an I-Phone. The IT people tell me that it is biometrically activated, but no matter how much I lick it, it won't turn on. from web

stephenconroy Working on a form letter to send in response to the form letter Mark Newton and his seditionist allies have been sending.







stephenconroy Talking to a Nigerian ISV about IP filtering. Apparently _they'll_ pay _us_ to use it, all they need is the Federal Reserve's account number

2009 is the International Year of Astronomy

Milky Way and Southern Cross from Google Images

The New Scotsman reminds us all that:

A FIFTH of the world's population can no longer see the Milky Way with the naked eye due to artificial lights blocking out the view of the stars.
This year, which is International Year of Astronomy, a new project is taking place to try to improve the visibility of the stars.

Campaigners at the Dark Skies Awareness project will be lobbying local authorities and members of the public to turn off lights in built-up areas at night.

Malcolm Smith, an astronomer at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile, wrote about the importance of the project in the journal Nature.

He said: "Over the past six decades, professional and amateur astronomers have been pioneering efforts to curb light pollution to protect the viability of their observatories.

"During the 2009 International Year of Astronomy, particularly through the Dark Skies Awareness project, astronomers can find allies in a common cause to convince authorities and the public that a dark sky is a valuable resource for everyone." Mr Tololo explains that turning lights off at night has benefits beyond improving the view of the stars.

"Reducing the number of lights on at night could help conserve energy, protect wildlife and benefit human health," he said.

"The most persuasive arguments for lighting control are economic ones. Estimates by the International Dark-Sky Association, based on work from satellite images, show that cities needlessly shine billions of pounds worth of light directly into the sky each year.

"As education on these issues improves, some cities are now realising the benefits of controlling such energy waste through better-quality lighting, thereby reducing dangerous glare and confusing lighting clutter."

Life's like that LOL

Saturday 17 January 2009

Iz no readin' ur blog! Honest



Sometimes being a blog adminstrator in a regional area does have its LOL moments.
Last Wednesday I went to my letter box and pulled out a hand delivered note informing me that the computer literate letter writer (subject of a short post this week) did actually know what his letter to the editor had said!

Rather than post a comment on North Coast Voices or email Guest Speak to have his own post published, the writer of this very polite note preferred to print out a copy of his gripe, get in the car and drive a few kilometres, pop the hand addressed envelope into my letter box and then presumably drive back home.

All to avoid it being widely known that he actually regularly reads North Coast Voices perhaps?

Time to start designing that kite for the Brunswick Heads Kites & Bikes Festival 21-22 March 2009


Share the special energy, colour and magic of the much loved Brunswick Heads Kites and Bikes Festival.
A weekend of simple, healthy and affordable eco-friendly fun beside the seaside.

Hands on activities, workshops, demonstrations and challenges for kids, kids at heart and kite and bike enthusiasts.
Wonder at the biggest kites in Australia and be part of the world record attempt for the most kites in the air!

Date:21/03/2009 to 22/03/2009
Time:Saturday 11am to 4pm and Sunday 9am to 4pm
Place:
Riverside Parks and Beach
Brunswick Heads, NSW

http://www.brunswickheads.org.au/pdf/KB_How_to_build_a_kite.pdf

According to the Byron Shire News:

Lisa is looking for sporting teams, school classes, community or interest groups or even groups of friends of 10, dressed in their colours, to register on-line from January 26 for the Country Energy Kite Record Attempt.

The entry fee is $10 and everyone will receive a green, yellow or white kite to paint beforehand. Event co-ordinator Joanne McMurtry is encouraging families from outside the shire to stay for the weekend and enjoy all the eco-friendly family fun. "Kites and Bikes won't burn a hole in families' pockets, since nearly all the activities are free," she said.

"Apart from the festival day on Sunday March 22, there will be plenty of activities on the Saturday, such as last minute registration for the Country Energy Kite Record Attempt, kite making and bike decorating workshops, junior star search heats, and several organised bike rides in the hinterland."....

And as festival sponsorship and promotions co-ordinator, Kim is now looking for minor sponsorship for naming rights of the various kite, bike and entertainment activities and would love to have offers of support from individual residents as well as the local businesses.

EVENT CO-ORDINATOR
Joanne McMurtry info@kitesandbikes.com.au
(02)66851003
KITES CO-ORDINATOR
Lisa Schiethe kites@kitesandbikes.com.au
0414 423 919
BIKES CO-ORDINATOR
Vicki McKain bikes@kitesandbikes.com.au
0425 334 269
KITE RECORD

Lisa Parkes
kiterecord@kitesandbikes.com.au

Kite picture from Australia Shop Safe


US judge orders Bush Administration to cough up those e-mails

Well, this has been a week and a half.
First a former Pentagon official in charge of those infamous military commissions finally admitted that torture occurred at GITMO.
Now we find out that a US Court has ordered the Office of the President to find those emails covering the period which included the invasion of Iraq and Hurricane Katrina.
Digital documents on memory sticks etc., are apparently just walking out the door or heading for the trash can of their own volition.
Yep, those pesky little blighters are even said to be jumping to their own deaths from fourth storey offices rather than reveal all they know about George, Dick, Donald, Colin, Alan, Roberto and whatshername.

The Order















Copy of order here.

Friday 16 January 2009

Betting odds on Obama's inauguration - from godliness to weather - and afterwards


It appears that almost anything to do with US President-elect Barack Obama is worth betting on.


How many past presidents will Obama reference in his inaugural speech?
Over 4½ -120
Under 4½ -120

How many times will Barack Obama refer to God in his inaugural address?
Over 2½ -140
Under 2½ Even

Will there be precipitation during Barack Obama's inaugural address?
None 3/2
Rain 2/1
Snow 5/4

Which former president will be mentioned first?
Abraham Lincoln 10/11
George Washington 3/1
Franklin Delano Roosevelt 3/2

How many times will Bill Clinton's name be mentioned?
Over 2 -120
Under 2 -120

But what is even more amusing is that the books are open for betting on the 2012 presidential election.


The NSW Office of the Premier corresponds with a cat?

When North Coast Voices was set up a side blog was established for Clarencegirl's cat and, in a fit of absurdity, he was given a hotmail account.

Since then Boy the Wonder Cat has received almost every psihing email known to man or beast, become the recipient of begging letters from then presidential candidate Barack Obama, and now it appears he is on a 'reply to' list for an email he swears he never sent to the NSW Premier.


EA1382161 - new community housing rent policy‏
From:thepremier (www.nsw.gov.au@mail.cabinet.nsw.gov.au)
Sent:Friday, 9 January 2009 2:00:19 PM
To: catlives9@hotmail.com
EA1382161 - CMU

To whom it may concern

The Premier has received your recent email concerning the new community housing rent policy.

As the matter you have raised primarily concerns the administration of the Minister for Housing, and Minister for Western Sydney, the Hon D L Borger, MP, the Premier has arranged to bring your approach to the Minister's attention.

You may be sure that your comments will receive close consideration.

Yours sincerely



Vanessa Karkousi
Office of the Premier

Now I'll apologise in advance in case a third party has used Boy's email address, but it does rather look as though someone at the Premier's office has seen a North Coast Voices post on the subject and is responding to that.

Mr. Rees, there is a comments button below those posts on the topic of your new community housing rental policy.
Might I suggest that you use it?

Congratulations, Claire Aman

Claire Aman, a Clarence valley resident and environmental planner, has just had a number of short stories published.

Her witty dissection of politics and society were always enjoyed when she wrote occasional articles for The Daily Examiner, so it is good to see that she is continuing to develop her craft.

Over the past few months the closet writer has been amazed as she got news that not just one, but several of her stories have been published alongside some top Australian authors including Emily Ballou and Frank Moorhouse.
"I've gone from having nothing published ever to being published in all of these books," Claire said.
In December her stories were included in The Best Australian Stories 2008 and Southerly's collection Little Disturbances.
Next month another of her stories will be included in New Australian Stories, published by Scribe.
"It's all just happened in such a short time," she said.
Claire taught herself to write when she penned her first novel, Why the Owl Gazes at the Moon, over a 10-year period.