Chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia continues during Summer

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), 21 December 2021:

The ENSO Outlook is at LA NIÑA.

Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show an established La Niña. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are at La Niña thresholds, with models indicating further cooling is likely in January. Atmospheric indicators including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade wind strength, and equatorial cloudiness have responded to this oceanic cooling and are typical of La Niña conditions.

The current model outlooks suggest this La Niña will persist until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. All but one of the models surveyed by the Bureau indicate SSTs will meet La Niña thresholds until at least February 2022.

Bureau climatologists will continue to closely monitor conditions in the tropical Pacific as well as model outlooks for further changes to this La Niña event.

~~~~~~~~~~

La Niña continues as Indian Ocean Dipole returns to neutral

La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest this La Niña will persist until the late southern hemisphere summer or early autumn 2022. La Niña events increase the chance of above average rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia during summer.

Most indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show clear La Niña patterns. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific remain at, or exceed, La Niña thresholds, with cooler water beneath the surface to support further cooling. In the atmosphere, cloud, wind, and pressure patterns are typical of La Niña, indicating the atmosphere is responding to the ocean changes below. These atmospheric changes also reinforce the changes observed in the ocean. This feedback process is known as 'coupling' and allows La Niña conditions to be sustained for an extended period.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Cloud and wind patterns, as well as SSTs, have now eased back from a negative IOD-like state and become more clearly neutral. Climate models predict the IOD will remain neutral for the coming months, consistent with its typical seasonal cycle. A neutral IOD has little influence on Australian climate.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains in the western Pacific. The MJO is forecast to progress eastwards across the western Pacific over the coming fortnight, which would typically increase cloudiness and rainfall across northern Australia and the western Pacific. It also increases the chances that the monsoon will develop in the Australian region by encouraging westerly winds over the area. However, as these westerly winds get further into the western Pacific, they could act to temporarily weaken the La Niña.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) continues to be positive. It is forecast to remain at positive levels until the end of the year before returning to neutral. A positive SAM during summer typically brings wetter weather to eastern parts of Australia, but drier than average conditions for western Tasmania.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.44°C for the 1910–2019 period. Rainfall across northern Australia during its wet season (October–April) has increased since the late 1990s. In recent decades there has been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high-intensity short-duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

Federal Liberal MP for Bowman Andrew Laming is in the news again for all the wrong reasons

 

The Guardian, 21 December 2021:

The Australian Electoral Commission has launched legal action against Liberal MP Andrew Laming for allegedly failing to disclose his political links on a Facebook page which appeared to be operating under the guise of a grassroots community group.

The federal court proceedings come after Guardian Australia revealed in April that the Queensland MP was operating 35 Facebook groups – with at least one for each suburb in his electorate.

The AEC is launching action based on just one of the 35 sites, which was called “Redland Hospital: Let’s fight for fair funding,” set up by Laming ahead of the last federal election to campaign against Labor.

It is the first time the AEC’s authorisation requirements for social media will be tested in court after disclosure laws were updated following the 2016 election to explicitly include social media posts.

According to the AEC website the penalty for a breach by an individual can be a fine of up to $26,640.

In a statement, the AEC said it had instituted federal court proceedings against Laming “alleging he failed to authorise Facebook posts leading up to the 2019 Federal Election”.

“The AEC alleges that Dr Laming published unauthorised electoral matter in the form of a Facebook page, ‘Redland Hospital: Lets fight for fair funding’ and that this contravened the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 requirement that material promoting one candidate or political party over another comply with the authorisation requirements of the Act.”

“The AEC will not be making any further comment as this matter is now before the Court.”…..

COVID-19 testing system in NSW buckles under strain after increase in infection numbers along with federal & state policy shifts place public health response burden on the individual not government

 

ABC News, 21 December 2021:

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard concedes the state's COVID-19 testing system is under "massive pressure" as clinics turn people away and wait times blow out.

Before the arrival of Omicron variant in late November, when NSW's daily case numbers hovered at the 250 mark, testing rates sat at about 60,000 per day.

Since Friday night, more than 426,000 people have braved queues to be tested across the state, with more than 8,000 new positive cases recorded in the past three days.

Mr Hazzard said testing sites, as well as the public and private laboratories that analysed the swabs, were under pressure.

"Obviously they're trying to access the various products that are required to do the testing, but that's not the sole issue," he said.

"The issue is also that the staffing from not only doing the actual pathology testing, but also the administration — making sure people are advised of their results — is currently under massive pressure."…..

For the sites that are open, queues have stretched around the block, forcing people to line up for hours at some clinics.

Wait times for results have blown out to 72 hours in some cases.

NSW Labor Health Spokesman Ryan Park said the state government needed to "fulfil their end of the bargain" after the Premier asked people to take personal responsibility and get tested in light of the spike in cases.

He said more clinics, staff and equipment were needed to meet the surging demand and to cut wait times.

"It simply doesn't make sense," he said.

"They (the government) need to listen to the message that's coming from the community."

The demand for testing in the lead-up to Christmas has also seen pharmacies run out of rapid antigen test kits.

Health officials convened for several hours on Tuesday morning to consider the stresses faced by the testing system…..

Read the full article here.

New Clarence Valley councillors have been declared, December 2021

After 14 counts of all ballots cast in the Saturday 4 December 2021 Clarence Valley local government election, the final count was posted on 20 December.

Candidate(s) marked with an asterisk were elected without reaching quota. 

Candidates elected at the same count are displayed in the order they appear on the ballot paper.

The margin between the last elected candidate TOMS Karen and the last un-

elected/excluded candidate ELLEM Peter is 137.

Voter enrollment at this December 2021 election was 38,544. A total of 33,019 ballot papers were received of which 30,661 were counted a formal votes.

Jeff Smith and Debrah Novak were elected on first preference and the other seven councillors after the distribution of preferences.

SEE: 

https://vtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/LG2101/clarence-valley/councillor/report/candidates-in-sequence

Months after multiple Public Health Order breaches Local Court imposes expensive consequences for one the three people involved

 

7News, 20 December 2021:

A teenager [sic] who sparked a seven-day lockdown in Byron Bay after travelling to the area with his father who had COVID-19 has been fined $35,000….

Kristian Radovanovic, 19, did not appear for his sentence as he has travelled to Serbia with his father to care for his grandmother, the Waverley Local Court was told on Monday.

He pleaded guilty to four charges after the Rose Bay family travelled to NSW’s northern rivers region to purchase a farm in late July and failed to abide by public health orders.

For not using a QR code and failing to wear a mask in a general store Kristian Radovanovic was fined $5000 and $7500 respectively, and for not wearing a mask nor using a QR code in a taxi he was fined $12,500 and $10,000 respectively.

The former gyprocker was already serving a community corrections order following a police pursuit while drink driving, and a conditional release order for affray after joining a brawl.

Kristian Radovanovic has been hit with a huge fine for travelling to Byron Bay while infected. 
Credit: 7NEWS

Magistrate Paul Mulroney said all offences involved a disregard for public health and safety.

“He did not care at all about the rest of the community,” he said.

“What he did was not just irresponsible, not just criminal, but had the real potential to put the lives and the wellbeing of the community at serious risk.

“I am imposing substantial fines to drive home to other people who don’t think this is serious ... there should be significant consequences.”…..

Zoran Radovanovic’s case was also up for mention at Lismore Local Court on Monday 20 December 2021.

SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Four

Following on from:

• SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, 1-11 December 2021 
• SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Two 
• SARS-CoV-2 Delta & Omicron Variants in NSW and Northern NSW, December 2021 - Part Three.

On 17 December 2021 NSW Health announced changes to its COVID-19 test, contact and trace system. From this point forward the individual who had a confirmed COVID-19 positive test will be informed of this fact by NSW Health but it will be the personal responsibility of the infected person to inform others in their family, friendship and workplace groups that they too may have contracted the virus.

NSW Health & Northern NSW Local Health District, based on media release excerpts and datasets, COVID-19 data for Friday, 17 December 2021:

# NSW recorded 2,482 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm on Friday 17 December 2021, including 1 death.

A total of 226 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern have been confirmed by the required additional testing in NSW. However, on the basis that specific genomic testing showed that 9.10% of Friday’s confirmed COVID-19 cases were caused by SARS-C0V-2 Omicron Variant. According to NSW Health all COVID-19 cases from this point forward will be assumed to be caused by the Omicron variant without initial variant specific investigation.

There are currently 206 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, nine of whom require ventilation.

Across NSW, 93.3% of people aged 16 and over and 78% of people aged 12 to 15 years, are fully vaccinated.

• Of the 2,482 cases reported to 8pm last night, 899 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 362 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 286 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 232 are from Sydney LHD, 219 are from Western Sydney LHD, 159 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 81 are from Central Coast LHD, 62 are from Northern NSW LHD, 42 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 35 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 29 are from Western NSW LHD, 28 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 13 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, six are from Southern NSW LHD, and 29 are yet to be assigned to an LHD. [my yellow highlighting]

The total number of active COVID-19 cases now stands at 11,760 people – with est. 11,500 of these ill people remaining at home as of 17 December.

To 8pm 17 December, 62 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 6 of the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW:

• Byron Shire – 46 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Ballina Shire – 8 cases across postcodes 2477, 2478; 

• Lismore City – 3 cases across postcodes 2480, 

• Clarence Valley – 2 cases across postcode 2460;

• Kyogle – 2 cases across postcode 2474;

• Tweed Shire – 1 case in postcode 2483;

• Richmond Valley – 0 cases.

TOTAL 62

There is one COVID-positive patient in hospital in Northern NSW.

To date, no cases in NNSWLHD have been confirmed as the Omicron variant of concern.

The most common locations for transmission of COVID-19 in our region continue to be pubs, parties and gatherings in indoor spaces.[my yellow highlighting]

BACKGROUND

UK Health Security Agency 1... by clarencegirl Click on symbol in lower righthand corner to enlarge

# NSW recorded 2,566 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Saturday, 18 December 2021.

A total of 313 cases of COVID-19 with the Omicron variant of concern have been confirmed by the required additional genomic sequencing tests. However, even though the Omicron variant caused just 12.19% of the 2,566 new cases that Friday; “NSW Health advises that the Omicron variant of concern likely accounts for the majority of today’s cases”.  

As at 18 December there are 14,050 active cases of COVID-19 in the state and est. 25,687 active cases Australia-wide.

There are currently 227 COVID-19 cases admitted to NSW hospitals, with 28 people in intensive care, ten of whom require ventilation. Australia-wide that number is est. 717 cases currently hospitalized.

To date the total number of persons in NSW confirmed to have contracted COVID-19 since January 2020 are 97,369 individuals, of whom 645 have died. According to the Australian Dept. of Heath, nationally that cumulative total of confirmed cases is 246,797 individuals of whom 2,142 have died. 

So as of 18 December 2021, 39.45% of all confirmed COVID-19 cases were recorded in New South Wales, along with 30.11% of all COVID-19 related deaths.

• Of the 2,566 cases reported to 8pm last night, 712 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 446 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 303 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 311 are from Sydney LHD, 279 are from Western Sydney LHD, 189 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 72 are from Central Coast LHD, 66 are from Northern NSW LHD, 50 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 31 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 37 are from Western NSW LHD, 23 are from Mid North Coast LHD, six are from Murrumbidgee LHD, seven are from Southern NSW LHD, one is from Far West LHD and 33 are yet to be assigned to an LHD. [my yellow highlighting]

To 8pm 18 December, 66 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 5 of the 7 local government areas in Northern NSW:

• Byron Shire – 49 cases across postcodes 2479, 2481, 2482, 2483;

• Ballina Shire – 8 cases across postcodes 2478;

• Tweed Shire – 4 cases across postcodes 2484, 2487, 2489;

• Lismore City – 3 cases across postcode 2480; 

• Richmond Valley – 2 cases across postcodes 2469, 2473; 

• Clarence Valley – 0 cases

• Kyogle Shire – 0 cases

TOTAL 66

There are two COVID-19 infected patients in hospital in Northern NSW.

UPDATE

# NSW recorded 2,501 new cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm Sunday 19 December 2021.

On 19 December the total of active COVID-19 cases in NSW was 16,225 persons.

There are currently 261 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 33 people in intensive care, 11 of whom require ventilation.

• Of the 2,501 cases reported to 8pm last night, 660 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 417 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 339 are from Sydney LHD, 315 are from Western Sydney LHD, 250 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 227 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 77 are from Central Coast LHD, 40 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 34 are from Northern NSW LHD, 24 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 24 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 20 are from Western NSW LHD, nine are from Murrumbidgee LHD, seven are from Far West LHD, four are from Southern NSW LHD, and 54 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

To 8pm 19 December, 34 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in 5 of the 7 local government areas of Northern NSW:

The following postcode list is incomplete due to corrupted/incomplete published dataset

• Byron Shire – 21 cases across postcodes 2481, 2482, 2483,

• Ballina Shire – 4 cases across postcodes 2478,

• Lismore City – 4 cases across postcodes 2472, 2480,

• Tweed Shire – 4 cases across postcodes 2484, 2489,

• Clarence Valley – 1 case across postcode

• Kyogle Shire – 0 cases

• Richmond Valley – 0 cases

TOTAL 34

There are five COVID-positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW.

*

New planning regime announcement by Perrottet Government "smacks of disrespect and contempt for the third tier of democratically elected government, and the communities they represent"

IMAGE: Planning Institute of Australia

NSW Minister for Planning and Public Spaces, Liberal MLA for Pittwater, wannabee premier & pinup boy of the developer set, Rob Stokes (left), was recently boasting that to facilitate urban development "Last financial year we cleared 336 rezoning proposals through the system".

Not content with that rate of urbanisation Stokes has now released a suite of new changes to environmental assessment and planning rules, including the Environmental Planning and Assessment (Statement of Expectations) Order which reserves the right for the Minister for Planning and Public Spaces to intervene where councils are not upholding their responsibilities - as perceived by the minister of the day, lobbyists for the building industry and property developers themselves.

Understandably, some aspects of these changes were not well received at the coal face.

Local Government NSW (LGNSW), media release, 16 December 2021:

Councils furious at ‘disrespectful’ planning announcement

A punishing new planning regime for NSW councils has been described as a follow-up gut punch to councils before the NSW cabinet reshuffle expected this week.

The regime – announced to developers by NSW Planning Minister Rob Stokes yesterday – includes a new planning guarantee requiring councils to refund planning application fees if they do not meet timelines arbitrarily imposed by the State Government.

“This announcement is a second gut punch, following hard on the heels of the lowest rate peg setting in 20 years – a rate so low that councils are already being forced to consider cuts to services, infrastructure and jobs,” Local Government NSW (LGNSW) President Darriea Turley said.

“It was dropped at a developers’ lunch 10 days before Christmas, and before the councils elected at the 4 December elections have even been declared by the NSW Electoral Commission, let alone had a chance to meet.

“The Minister is no doubt rushing to lock in what he sees as his legacy before he is moved out of the portfolio in the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle, but this announcement smacks of disrespect and contempt for the third tier of democratically elected government, and the communities they represent.”

A media release issued by Minister Stokes foreshadowed:

• one-size-fits-all maximum timeframes for assessments and determinations by councils

• A new planning guarantee requiring councils to refund planning application fees if they do not meet government-imposed time frames

• Ministerial intervention powers if the Government believes councils are not upholding their responsibilities.

Cr Turley said it was particularly rich for the Minister to be claiming he was simply asking councils to meet the same standard of timeliness and certainty on rezoning and development applications as the NSW Government.

“It is not uncommon for the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment to take more than a year to assess planning proposals by councils,” she said.

“Where is the recognition that the development industry often submits partially complete or wildly speculative proposals well outside the approved strategic plans for the area, slowing the process?

“Where is the recognition that councils are already grappling with a plethora of other changes pushed through by this Minister – changes that are impacting their systems and processes, and placing additional strain on an already-strained workforce?

“These include having to recalibrate their systems to integrate with the Planning Portal; amending, developing and updating their land use plans; preparing new plans and implementation strategies for housing and employment; changing the names and definition in their polices and plans; increasing their planning and development reporting – all with significant shortages of planning staff.

“Planning is a critical function jointly delivered by local and state governments, and communities deserve a co-designed system.

“Local government has always committed to working with the Minister for Planning to provide a genuinely collaborative system that delivers the best outcome for the people of NSW.

“We are profoundly disappointed the outgoing Minister has decided to leave our sector on such a negative note”.