Wednesday 8 May 2024

An Israeli full-scale attack on Rafah in southern Gaza is imminent

7 May 2024

Unconfirmed video

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At present it is estimated that 1.5 million displaced Palestinian civilians - men, women & children - are sheltering in the southern Gaza city of Rafah and environs

Financial Review, 7 May 2024:

Jerusalem | Hamas announced on Monday (Tuesday AEST) it has accepted a ceasefire proposal, but Israel said the deal did not meet its “core demands” and it was pushing ahead with an assault on the southern Gaza town of Rafah.

Al Jazeera, 7 May 2024:

Israeli tanks have taken over the Rafah crossing in Gaza’s border with Egypt after advancing during the night as their warplanes pounded residential homes, killing at least 12 people.


The Guardian, 7 May 2024: (approx. AEST 1:00am)

Thousands of people are evacuating from Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, hours after the Israeli military told residents and displaced people in eastern neighbourhoods to leave in advance of a long-threatened attack on the city and its environs. Witnesses described frightened families leaving the city on foot, riding donkeys or packed with their belongings into overloaded trucks on Monday. Overnight Israeli airstrikes had reinforced “panic and fear”, prompting more to heed the instructions to move.

al Mawasi camp in April 2024
The Guardian

It is reported that the IDF has ordered est. 100,000 of those displaced persons in an eastern section of Rafah to move to al Mawasi, where there is a makeshift camp on the coast. About 450,000 displaced Palestinians are said to already be sheltering there.

The al Mawsi area has been subject to IDF attack and what infrastructure there is damaged and the camp unable to support a further influx of people according to United Nations sources.

Al Jazeera, 7 May 2024 (AEST 8:40pm):

Suhaib al-Hamas, the director of Rafah’s Kuwaiti Hospital, has said the facility is teeming with dozens of wounded patients as Israel’s military operation intensifies in the city, reports the Wafa news agency. The hospital is receiving more patients than usual since the city’s main public health facility, al-Najjar, is now located within the Israeli military’s red zone and unable to take them in.

CNN, 8 May 2024 (approx. AEST 3:15am):

Israeli strikes in eastern Rafah today. AFP - Getty Images

The Guardian, 8 May 2024 (AEST 3:49am):

An intensification of the operation should be unthinkable: it would vastly increase the disaster. Many of those now in Rafah were forced to flee from other parts of Gaza. Ordering evacuation is pointless when there is nowhere safe to go. Unicef says 600,000 children are in the city. According to Gaza’s health authorities, 14,000 minors have already been killed, along with 6,000 mothers: there are 19,000 new war orphans.

Media and other reports suggest that up to 1,000 Australian citizens have journeyed to the State of Israel since 7 October 2023 in order to serve in the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) during its War on Gaza - as dual Australian-Israeli citizen IDF reservists or as non-dual citizens in the IDF Mahal volunteer force.


ABC News, 9 May 2024:

Since the start of the seven-month Israel-Hamas conflict, powerful US-supplied 2,000-pound bombs have been used in bombardments on Gaza's heavily populated cities. 

Now, for the first time, US President Joe Biden has acknowledged that the bombs, which military experts say turn "earth into liquid", have killed civilians in Gaza. 

And the US will be delaying a shipment of thousands of bombs over concerns about Israel's invasion of the southern city of Rafah.

"Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centres," Mr Biden told CNN. 

"I made it clear that if they go into Rafah ... we're not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells used." 

Analysts say it's a "powerful symbolic move" from the Biden administration. 

But, it's unlikely to have an impact on the conflict overall, or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's planned assault on Rafah.... 

Washington has paused one shipment consisting of 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs, and 1,700 500-pound bombs, according to US officials. These are the 2,000-pound bombs the US is reportedly sending Israel The US has in recent days reportedly green-lit the transfer of billions of dollars' worth of bombs and fighter jets to Israel. 

Four sources said the shipment, which has been delayed for at least two weeks, involved Boeing-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions, which convert dumb bombs into precision-guided ones, as well as Small Diameter Bombs...

The blast of an MK84 bomb is so immense "it turns earth into liquid", Marc Garlasco, a former Pentagon official and a war crimes investigator for the United Nations told the Associated Press last month. 

"It pancakes entire buildings," he said. 

He added an explosion in the open meant "instant death" for anyone within about 30 metres. 

Lethal fragmentation can extend for up to 365m. 

SBS News, 10 May 2024:


  • Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said Israelis will fight with only their fingernails, if they must ["But we have much more than our fingernails"].

  • Ceasefire talks make some headway, but no deal, Egyptian security sources said.

  • Israeli officials said operation in Rafah to proceed as planned.

Tuesday 7 May 2024

Yet another government report - this time the "State of the Housing System 2024"

SBS News, 6 May 2024:

The median rent across the nation is $627 a week, ranging from $547 in Hobart to $770 in Sydney, according to property data provider CoreLogic.

The regional median was $540, driven by rises in house rents in regional Queensland and Tasmania.

Rents are going up faster in areas between 30 and 40km from city centres, CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen reported.

"Part of the reason for the re-acceleration in rents nationally could be due to renters being forced into more affordable, peripheral housing markets as they become priced out of more desirable and central metropolitan locations," she said.

But supply and demand pressures remain high across the nation and migration levels implied there were at least 200,000 new households in Australia, while only 173,000 new dwellings were completed to September last year, Owen said....

Median rents were more than $1,000 in nine areas, with adjoining Cottesloe-Claremont suburbs in beachside Perth the only area outside Sydney to command four figures.

Rents in Pittwater, almost 25km from the CBD on Sydney's northern beaches, were the highest at $1,335 per week, coming down half a percentage point since a peak in March.

Rents were still up 8.4 per cent annually in Pittwater, in line with the 8.5 per cent national increase.

The data comes after the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council launched its inaugural report on Friday, painting a dire portrait of Australia's housing system.....

National Housing Suppply and Affordibility Council, State of the Housing System 2024, 3 May 2024:


There is no denying the housing crisis we are in. It is a longstanding crisis, fundamentally driven by the failure to deliver enough housing of all types – from social housing through to market home ownership. At its heart, this crisis is about insufficient supply, but many contributing factors are making it more acute – the resumption of migration at pace, rising interest rates, skills shortages, elevated construction company insolvencies, weak consumer confidence and cost inflation to name just a few. These all combine to create an environment in which prices and rents are growing faster than wages, rental vacancies are near all-time lows, 169,000 households are on public housing waiting lists, 122,000 people are experiencing homelessness and projected housing supply is very low.

Australia’s housing market is far from healthy. An unhealthy market has periods of rampant price growth, is unable to produce enough supply to meet demand, is overly reliant on an unsupported private market to address most of Australia’s shelter needs, creates scarcity and cannot match the rich expanse of demand with a breadth of housing choice.....

Executive Summary

Housing affordability worsened in 2023, from

already challenging levels

Housing affordability worsened in 2023. The worsening was widespread, occurring across states and territories, cities and regions, income levels, age groups and tenure types.

Housing affordability deteriorated significantly for mortgage holders. Mortgage interest rates rose by an average of 125 basis points in 2023, and the average mortgage for owner-occupiers reached $624,000. Since the first increase in the Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate in May 2022, minimum scheduled repayments for borrowers have increased by as much as 60 per cent.

Aspiring homeowners experienced a decline in their ability to purchase a home. It takes the average prospective homeowner around 10 years to save a 20 per cent deposit for an average dwelling. Even with a deposit, only 13 per cent of the homes sold in 2022–23 were affordable for a median income household.

Renters in the private market experienced a sharp rise in rents. Advertised rents increased by 8 per cent in 2023 and have increased by around 35 per cent since the start of the decade. Finding a rental property is increasingly difficult. Nationally, the rental vacancy rate is 1.6 per cent – around its lowest level on record and well below the rate considered to reflect a balanced rental market of around 3–4 per cent. In some parts of the country, including some capital cities, it is as low as 0.5 per cent.

Worsening affordability placed additional pressure on demand for non-market housing. The number of ‘greatest needs’ households on public housing waiting lists rose by 2.4 per cent in the 2022–23 financial year. Waiting lists for First Nations housing rose by 10 per cent. Service providers reported a rise in demand for homelessness services and crisis accommodation.

Many households have made difficult trade-offs in the face of rising housing costs, including reducing spending on other essential household items; living further away from places of employment, education, and social and family networks; or living in overcrowded dwellings or in housing with inadequate or expensive heating or cooling options.

Worsening affordability is particularly problematic for vulnerable groups, including low-income households, single parents, young people, single pensioners, those fleeing domestic or family violence, people with disability, and First Nations Australians. Declining rental affordability correlates with an increase in homelessness.

Worsening affordability is contributing to poorer housing outcomes for First Nations Australians. First Nations households are half as likely to own their home, 6-times more likely to live in social housing, 3-times more likely to live in overcrowded dwellings and almost 9-times more likely to experience homelessness compared to non-Indigenous Australians. These poor housing outcomes impact on health and wellbeing, access to education and employment, and connection to community. Without targeted measures, undertaken in partnership with First Nations people, housing outcomes under the National Agreement on Closing the Gap are unlikely to be met.

This report tells us that:

More than 30 per cent of Australians rent their home. The number of renters is increasing, and those who are renting are doing so for longer. Renting is the only viable tenure option for an increasing share of the population. Australia’s rental system provides only limited tenure security and other rights to renters. Australia needs regulatory frameworks that support tenants’ rights and address the need for better tenure security. More institutional investment in rental housing could provide tenants with more rental options and add to the dwelling supply.....

The evidence base indicates that Australia’s tax framework influences the housing system in ways that have implications for supply and affordability. Tax arrangements could potentially be better calibrated to support housing supply and affordability outcomes. Australia’s tax system also favours home ownership over other forms of housing tenure, which can widen inequality between those who can and cannot access homeownership. A gradual transition to a more consistent taxation system across tenure types may contribute to a more equitable housing system.

Non-market housing, such as social housing and affordable housing, is essential infrastructure. It reduces homelessness and the incidence of poverty, supports economic productivity and labour market participation, and fosters more cohesive and sustainable communities. In some remote areas of Australia, social housing is the main form of available rental accommodation. There are federal, state and territory policies that will support the delivery of more non-market housing over the National Housing Accord period. However, levels of non-market housing are forecast to remain low relative to history and in comparison to other advanced economies, and lower than demand....

Supply of social housing

Australia’s social housing supply has fallen short of demand (Van den Nouwelant, et al., 2022). From the 1940s to the 1980s, government housing agencies built large volumes of new public housing (Chart 2.12). Instead of focusing mainly on the direct provision of non-market housing, governments have shifted towards a model of providing rent assistance payments to enable more households to rent in the private market. The provision of social housing is now primarily focused on supporting people in greatest need.

The number of non-market dwellings has stagnated as a result. This has contributed to a one-third decline in social housing as a share of the housing stock, from a peak of 5.6 per cent in 1991 to 3.8 per cent in 2021 (Chart 2.13). This indicates a reduction in the availability of adequate housing for lower-income and disadvantaged households. However, recent policy measures, such as the Housing Australia Future Fund and new public housing commitments by state and territory governments, mean that a rise in the current levels of investment in non-market housing is expected in coming years....

The report also draws attention to the following:

Box 2.1: Climate-related disasters

The housing system is inflexible when responding to natural disasters. The increased frequency and severity of natural disasters are adding to the demand for new houses to be built and for repairs on existing housing, often in higher-cost locations such as regional and remote areas. Rental markets are also affected when homeowners are forced to rent accommodation while their homes are repaired. Regional New South Wales was severely affected by its worst recorded flood in February 2022. In Lismore, 89 per cent of housing stock was severely impacted and 3 per cent was destroyed (Lismore City Council, 2022). Over the quarter to March 2022, house rents in Lismore increased 22 per cent to $550 a week. This almost matched the level of Sydney house rents, which were $600 in the same quarter (Domain, 2022). The supply response following natural disasters is slow due to the time taken to process insurance claims and increases in demand for labour and materials, leaving many residents without appropriate housing, sometimes for years after the event. The rebuilding following the Kimberley floods in Western Australia was significantly delayed due to its remote location and the pre-existing statewide shortage of tradespeople, which left people living in temporary shelters months after the floods (ABC News, 2023b). The impact of natural disasters has a lasting effect on housing in affected areas; for example, in the form of lower house prices due to a heightened risk of a natural disaster re-occurring. After 2017 floods in Lismore, property values normalised in 6 months. However, by March 2023, a year after the floods in the Northern Rivers, house prices in the most affected suburbs had fallen by 22–30 per cent – more than the regional average of 19 per cent (CoreLogic, 2023). The increasing severity and frequency of natural disasters could produce larger and longer-lasting effects on the housing system. [my yellow highlighting]

At Page 151 of this report is this section: 8.1 The Council has identified 10 areas of focus for improving housing system outcomes.

Read it for the record but don't raise your hopes.


This comprehensive and at times overly optimistic report can be found at:

Monday 6 May 2024

Singer-Songwriter Maanyung: Singing Songs of Language and Country

Proud Gumbaynggir and Yaegl man, Maanyung (Michael Laurie), singing a Michael Laurie-Thom Mak composition, Bilawali (Home), in the Yaygirr language of the Yaegl People of the Lower Clarence Valley, NSW.

Released on the Sibling label in 2024.

Sunday 5 May 2024

Property developers continue to come after State Significant Farmland in the Northern Rivers region


Historically three facts are clear about farmland in New South Wales.

1. Approximately half of the state's land mass can be considered to have moderately low to extremely low agricultural value [Adams VM & Engert JE, 2023]. Yet New South Wales produces about $15.1 billion of agricultural food and $38.1 billion of manufactured food & beverage products each year [NSW Govt, Investment NSW, 2024], with agriculture and primary production generally being an important industry on the North Coast as one of its largest employers and a significant contributor to the regional economy.

2. The state's 1,973km long coastal strip from the ocean to the Great Dividing Range has historically produced around 20 per cent of its primary production annually [Melville JM, 2012].

3. Agricultural and pastoral land is being removed from the state's coastal zone at an alarming rate. With up to 60% of agricultural land within the Greater Western Sydney 'food bowl' - which produces more than three-quarters of the total value of agricultural produce in the metropolitan region - being lost to property development in the last ten years. However, agricultural land loss to property development is not confined to major cities, but can be found all along the coastal zone. Wherever there are regional cities, towns & villages seen as highly desirable by those seeking a tree change or sea change lifestyle.

Such is the case here......

ECHO, 3 May 2034:

The contentiousCudgen Connection development proposed on State Significant Farmland (SSF) on the protected Cudgen Plateau next to the Tweed Valley Hospital (TVH) site was in front of Tweed Shire Councillors at yesterday’s planning meeting.

The council staff report had recommended that the application for gateway determination should be approved however, Kingscliff Ratepayers and Progress Association (KRAPA) were clear in their objections to the proposal and highly critical of the inaccurate statements and reports relating to the SSF site.

When the TVH was proposed on the SSF the issue split the local community and when the hospital was approved and the site re-zoned from SSF both sides of the political spectrum gave ‘iron clad’ promises that there would be no further development of or rezoning of SSF on the Cudgen plateau.

Six to one in favour of refusal

We are so grateful to the six councillors who voted to refuse this application,’ Peter Newton, President of KRPA told The Echo.

Particularly the community could not have had better representation than from Mayor Cherry, Deputy Mayor Dennis and Councillor Firth who forensically addressed every community concern in speaking to the item. It’s disappointing that it was left to Mayor Cherry and others to detail the clear shortcomings and inconsistencies within this proposal, which we would have expected to see in the Council report.’

Mayor Cherry spoke to the proposed refusal telling the meeting that, ‘In order to support a variation allowed for under the North Coast Regional Plan, we need to be satisfied that the variation is supported by a sound evidence base addressing agricultural capability and sustainability. Is the land capable, is this sustainable?

We’re required to form a view as to whether the proposal has to strategic and site specific merit. For the clarity strategic merit means that the proposal has alignment with the New South Wales Strategic Planning Framework and government priorities. It also needs to have alignment with our priorities, and those that have council that have been approved by the state government. Is it consistent with the North Coast Regional Plan? Is it consistent with the Tweed Local Strategic Planning Statement with our strategies with the Tweed Regional Economic Development Strategy.

These are the questions we’ve had to consider and this is the site suitable for the relevant development. This is one question that hasn’t really come out in this assessment at all. Where’s the strategic assessment and the demonstrated need for 120 bed private hospital in this location, where is consideration of the impacts that that might have on our Tweed Valley Hospital on the existing private hospital John Flyn, on our other day surgeries in Tweed Heads? Does the proposal give regard and assess the impacts of the natural environment, including the known resources and what is our SSF but a finite resource? We can’t make any more of it.’......

Developer won’t back down

Speaking to the meeting conservative Cr Warren Polglase told the meeting that the developer wouldn’t be walking away from the proposal.

Well I support the proposal as it is,’ Cr Polglase told the meeting.

I will be voting in favour of it and I realise that the applicant is definitely going to go to review and I guess a determination will be put forward to the Regional Planning Panel, which will finish up on the minister’s desk.’

Mr Newton told The Echo that, ‘This result was the outcome our community wanted and deserved. While this decision is a very clear endorsement for protecting our precious SSF and the unsuitability of the Cudgen Connection proposal, we do appreciate that this is one step in the process.’.

Read the full article at:

Friday 3 May 2024

State of Play for Women and Girls in Australia, 2024


The very ordinary street in which the first murder of a woman occurred in 2024. IMAGE: yahoo! news, 3 January 2024 

To date this year 2024, one woman is murdered every four days somewhere in Australia.

Nationally, in the twelve months between July 2022 and June 23 there had been 34 women killed by an intimate partner, according to the National Homicide Monitoring Program.

By 30 April 2024, 28 women had died of gender-based violence, with 10 of these murders occurring in New South Wales - sadly five being killed in the same place on the same day in Bondi Junction and one being a 60 year-old woman found bundled into the boot of a car outside her home at Evans Head in the Northern Rivers region. Her son has been charged with murder and interfere with corpse.

NOTE: Media reports now cite the number of women murdered nationally to date in 2024 as between 33 and 34. If the current rate of women murdered by men this year continues, then the Australian toll of 75 femicides in 2022-2003 may be exceeded by 31 December 2024. Although it is not expected to reach the 1990-1991 terrible high of 148 femicides.

The year before in New South Wales there were 15 adult women who were a victim of a Domestic Violence (DV) murder in the 12 months to December 2023. While DV assaults recorded by NSW Police increased significantly over the two and five years to December 2023, up by 6.7% over two years and up 3.6% per year on average over five years.

The year-on-year increase was higher in Regional NSW than Greater Sydney (7.6% vs 6.0%), and substantially higher over five years (5.5% vs 2.0% average annual change).

In the Clarence Valley, NSW, from January through to December 2023 there 320 domestic violence related assaults recorded, of which 276 involved female victims of which 250 were aged between 18 and 40+ years and 26 were aged between 0 to 17 years of age.

The gender of offenders across all domestic violence murders and assaults is overwhelmingly male.

According to the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOSCAR) since 2019 the Clarence Valley rate of domestic violence related assaults has risen in the last five years from 354.3 per 100,000 persons to 686.0 per 100,000 persons in 2023. In the wider NSW Police Coffs Harbour-Clarence District the 2023 domestic violence relate assault rate was 816.1 per 100,000 persons, making the rate more than 50% but less than double the NSW average.

The response of federal and state governments to this increase in gender-based violence has been announced.


Dept. of Prime Minister and Cabinet, PM Transcripts, 1 May 2024:

Released by The Hon Anthony Albanese MP, Prime Minister of Australia

Meeting of National Cabinet on gender-based violence

National Cabinet met virtually today to discuss the national crisis of gender-based violence.

First Ministers are committed to stopping the homicides and achieving our shared goal of ending violence against women and children in a generation.

National Cabinet agreed to a number of priorities for all our governments, building on efforts under way under the National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022-2032, including:

  • Strengthening accountability and consequences for perpetrators, including early intervention with high-risk perpetrators and serial offenders, and best practice justice responses that support people who have experienced violence.

  • Strengthening and building on prevention work through targeted, evidence-based approaches.

  • Maintaining a focus on missing and murdered First Nations women and children, and the impact of domestic and family violence in First Nations communities.

First Ministers heard from Commonwealth Domestic, Family and Sexual Violence Commissioner Micaela Cronin. Ms Cronin reflected on her work as Commissioner, including discussions with people with experience of violence, and key priorities for shared effort to address gaps in the current system.

Premier of Victoria, the Hon. Jacinta Allan also shared lessons from the Victorian Royal Commission into Family Violence.

National Cabinet noted the importance of housing reforms in supporting women and children escaping violence.

National Cabinet agreed to strengthen prevention efforts through targeted, evidence-based approaches and to be informed by an expert led rapid review of best practice approaches. This will allow further and effective action on preventing gender-based violence, building on the considerable work under way.

The Commonwealth will deliver the Leaving Violence Payment to help people experiencing intimate partner violence with the costs of leaving that relationship. This acknowledges financial insecurity is closely linked to violence, and can prevent women leaving a violent relationship.

The Leaving Violence Payment builds on existing measures being delivered to improve financial security of women, including expansion of the single Parenting Payment, 10 days paid domestic violence leave, and investment in crisis accommodation and affordable housing for women and children escaping violence.

The Commonwealth will also deliver a range of new measures to tackle factors that exacerbate violence against women, such as violent online pornography, and misogynistic content targeting children and young people.

New measures will include legislation to ban deepfake pornography and additional funding for the eSafety Commission to pilot age assurance technologies.

First Ministers agreed that system responses need to be strengthened, with a focus on high-risk perpetrators and serial offenders to prevent homicides. This will involve work across governments and jurisdictions. First Ministers have agreed to undertake a range of work that will report back to National Cabinet later this year.

  • Police Ministers Council and the Standing Council of Attorneys-General will be tasked to develop options for improving police responses to high risk and serial perpetrators, including considering use of focused deterrence and fixated threat strategies.

  • First Ministers agreed to improve information sharing about perpetrators across systems and jurisdictions, led by the Commonwealth Minister for Women.

  • First Ministers agreed that States and Territories will explore opportunities to strengthen national consistency and drive best practice approaches across jurisdictions, including relating to risk assessment and responses to sexual assault, led by Victoria and South Australia.

We will continue to listen and learn from those with lived experience of violence. We recognise they have intimate first-hand knowledge of services, systems, and structures that are meant to support. They know from experience the weaknesses and strengths of interventions in practice.

First Ministers are listening to the experts, identifying where the gaps are, and acting with urgency. We want violence against women and children to stop.

This media statement has been agreed by First Ministers and serves as a record of meeting outcomes.


What is yet to be revealed is the degree to which federal and states governments are willing to address the legislative inadequacies demonstrated within the Commonwealth Criminal Code & state laws covering personal and domestic violence.

Here are a number of points currently being discussed in the wider community:

1. The advisability of legislating a) increases in fines and prison sentences for crimes identified as falling within the range of crimes of violence against women and b) making a prison sentence mandatory for repeat offenders;

2. Reviewing legislation covering Apprehended Violence Orders (AVOs) & Apprehended Domestic Violence Orders (ADVOs) to ensure the conditions contained therein reflect the gravity of crimes of violence against women;

3. Reassess with a view to strengthening bail eligibility criteria & specific conditions, so as to avoid a) police failure to refuse bail or failure to set appropriate police bail at time of arrest before first appearance in local court and b) magistrates allowing bail for repeat offenders - particularly when the charges asserted violence or threats;

4. By way of legislation, a mandatory precautionary measure be established requiring all persons charged to wear a monitored ankle bracelet until the matter is progressed through the courts to a final judgment.

5. Where residential occupancy of the shared home's title is in the name of both parties or where the rental lease is in the name of both parties then a legal obligation be established by legislation requiring the offending party to immediately vacate the premises and find alternative accommodation.

6. That serious consideration be given to removing the relationship between the current amount of parenting payments received by the primary caregiver and a partner's income, setting a new across-the-board base rate and making it tax free for unpartnered parents on low to middle incomes. Thereby giving women with children more certainty and flexibility when seeking to leave violent relationships.

Thursday 2 May 2024

So what is happening on the rain front as NSW enters May 2024


In the last week of April 2024 coastal New South Wales was warned about a high pressure system building over southern Australia which could cause a "blocking high", the name given to a high-pressure system that stalls from several days to several weeks, and blocks the typical eastward movement of weather.

This could lead to 10 days of rain falling on coastal NSW.

ABC News reporting: The showers initially will not generate heavy falls or severe weather, however when combined with a developing trough later this week, an area of rain will form across western NSW on Thursday and Friday, shifting to the coast during the weekend.

Modelling indicates the event could bring anything from 50 to 200 millimetres to the NSW coastline, and possibly over 50mm across pockets of the west, potentially enough to trigger flood watches and warnings.

Although rainfall since 30 April has not yet resulted in flooding (with the exception of of continuing minor flooding in a section of the Warrego River in north-west of the state), the initial Bureau of Meteorology modelling forecasting this expected rainfall spread by Sunday 5 May 2024 is:

Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Issued 7:03pm AES 1 May 2024

So far this year the NSW Government has declared two natural disaster periods.

The first for Clarence Valley NSW Bushfires, 21 January – 13 February 2024 and the second NSW East Coast Flooding from 1 April 2024 which covered 33 local government areas - including the Clarence Valley, Lismore City and Byron Shire.

Fingers crossed that situation does not escalate beyond current meteorological predictions.