Australia may be down but it's not out

Only two more sleeps until the Federal Budget for 2009-10 is revealed.

With most people expecting the worst and mainstream media and Coalition heavies stoking this expectation, it's worthwhile looking at the nearest thing to an unbiased assessment available.

The Reserve Bank statement on 8 May 2009:

"Indicators of domestic activity, information from the Bank's liaison program and business surveys all suggest that the economy has been contracting since late 2008. A significant contraction in GDP is estimated for the first half of 2009, with the peak-to-trough contraction in GDP a little smaller than during the recession in the early 1990s. The economy is forecast to begin to grow from late 2009, although the recovery is expected to be gradual, partly reflecting the slow recovery in global demand (Table 16). In year-average terms, GDP is forecast to decline by ½ per cent in 2009/10 before growing by 2¼ per cent in 2010/11. Factors that would suggest a less severe recession here than in many other countries include the bigger decline in interest rates to end-borrowers, the healthier state of the financial sector, Australia's export mix (a relatively low share of exports of capital goods and high-value manufactures, where global trade has fallen most), the recent recovery in the Chinese economy, and the exchange rate depreciation in the second half of 2008."

Complete statement can be downloaded here.