Science and expert advice does not favour the creation of a nuclear power industry in Australia

 

Since 2018 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in collaboration with the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has produced an annual report updating the costs of electricity generation, energy storage and hydrogen production, titled GenCost.

The report encompasses updated current capital cost estimates commissioned by AEMO and delivered by Aurecon, a design, engineering and advisory company, with the aim of providing projections of future changes in costs consistent with updated global electricity scenarios which incorporate different levels of achievement of global climate policy ambition.

This year the 131 page 2023-24 final report was released on 22 May 2024 and its Executive Summary opened with these words:

Technological change in electricity generation is a global effort that is strongly linked to global climate change policy ambitions. While the rate of change remains uncertain, in broad terms, world leaders continue to provide their support for collective action limiting global average temperatures. At a domestic level, the Commonwealth government, together with all Australian states and territories aspire to or have legislated net zero emissions (NZE) by 2050 targets.

Globally, renewables (led by wind and solar PV) are the fastest growing energy source, and the role of electricity is expected to increase materially over the next 30 years with electricity technologies presenting some of the lowest cost abatement opportunities.

Under Outcomes of 2023‐24 consultation was this interesting observation:

GenCost received the highest volume of feedback to the consultation draft in its history with 45 written submissions and many participating for the first time. This input has led to several changes, the most significant of which being the inclusion of large‐scale nuclear in the report for the first time. GenCost has also increased wind generation costs and developed a revised approach for including solar thermal generation costs on a common basis with other bulk supply technologies.

Consultation continues to be a valuable way of improving the quality of the report given that no single organisation can cover the breadth of technologies explored. Feedback can take the form of suggestions and questions. Given the volume of feedback it has not been possible to individually address every question raised in the body of this report. However, we have now added Appendix D which addresses the major common questions and answers.

The report noted: A majority of submissions to the 2023‐24 consultation process requested the inclusion of large‐scale nuclear in addition to nuclear small modular reactors (SMR) that had been included in GenCost since its inception in 2018.

It would appear that the Leader of the Opposition & Liberal MP for Dickson Peter Dutton and Coalition's Shadow Minister for Agriculture & Nationals MP for Maranoa David Littleproud, may have rallied the troops in the hope of fashioning the final report into a useful tool to deploy during the next federal general election campaign due to kick-off sometime between January - April 2025 for a May election date.

Based of the report's Appendix D Frequently asked questions the likely aim of some submissions received appears to have been to create a more feasible future for nuclear energy electricity production and supply than was contained in the earlier draft report. Along with refurbishing the reputation of coal-fired electricity generation.

With admirable restraint, considered and detailed answers were given to all of the following queries:

1. Why does GenCost not immediately change its report when provided with new advice from experts?

2. Why are disruptive events and bifurcations excluded from the scenarios?

3. Why is no sensitivity analysis conducted and presented?

4. Why did you use the capital cost of a single failed project in the United States for your representative nuclear SMR cost (the UAMPS Carbon Free Power

Project)?

5. Do you assume Australia continues to rely on overseas technology suppliers or are you assuming Australia develops its own original equipment manufacturing capability?

6. Why does GenCost persist with the view that technology costs will fall over time when there are many factors that will keep technology costs high?

7. Why is the uncertainty in the data not emphasised more?

8. Why include an advanced ultra‐supercritical pulverised coal instead of cheaper, less efficient plant designs?

9. Why is the economic life used in LCOE calculations instead of the full operational life?

10. Coal and nuclear plants are capable of very high capacity factors, why do LCOE calculations not always reflect this?

11. Why do LCOE calculations not use the lowest historical capacity factors for the low range assumptions?

12. Why were all potential cost factors not included in the LCOE calculations?

13. What is the boundary of development costs? Is it only costs from the point of contracting a developer before commencing construction?

14. How is interest lost during construction included in GenCost?

15. Why do other studies find higher costs than GenCost for integrating variable renewables in the electricity system?

16. Why are integration costs not increasing with VRE share in 2023 but increase in the 2030 results?

17. Why do other studies show the cost of storage increasing more rapidly with higher VRE share?

18. Why are the cost of government renewable subsidies not included in the LCOE calculations for variable renewables with integration costs?

19. Why is a value of 100% applied to the fuel efficiency of renewables in the LCOE formula?

20. Why do you apply only one discount rate or weighted average cost of capital to all technologies?

21. Why did you take the maximum and average of existing generator prices to create the high and low range greenfield coal prices?

22. Why do you not include high and low ranges for economic life?

23. Why are your low range capacity factors for coal and renewables closer to the historical average capacity factor?

24. Why use historical 2023 coal and gas prices that are impacted by the Ukraine War for 2023 LCOE estimates instead of a longer time series?

25. Why does GenCost only conduct LCOE analysis instead of system cost to society analysis?

26. If GenCost shows renewables are cheaper, why are electricity prices higher in Australia and in countries transitioning to renewables?

The completed final report would not have been to Messrs. Dutton and Littlerpoud's liking as, although there are no known technical constraints to deploying large-scale nuclear generation units, it would require that Australia commits to a continuous building program and only after an initial higher cost unit is constructed would capital cost of a large‐scale nuclear plant come in at $8,655/kW, based on 2023 pricing.

While an estimated electricity cost range for large‐scale nuclear generation under current capital costs and a continuous building program is $155/MWh to $252/MWh

None of which could begin to be put in place in the estimated timeline before 2040.

The Financial Review's political editor observed on 22 May 2024:

Peter Dutton’s nuclear energy plans have suffered a setback with the CSIRO estimating the nation’s first large-scale nuclear power plant could cost as much as $17 billion in today’s dollars, and would not be operational until at least 2040.

This is the current reality of Australia's electricity generation mix. Click on the images below to enlarge the graphs.

Comparative Capital Costs of Current Generation Technology

Key Changes In Capital Costs In The Past Year

The GenCost 2023-24 final report can be downloaded at

https://www.csiro.au/-/media/Energy/GenCost/GenCost2023-24Final_20240522.pdf

Liberal MP for Dickson & Leader of the Coalition Opposition Peter Dutton called the CSIRO an unreliable scientific body producing "discredited" work and is now reaping what he has sown

"In the growing heat of debate over Coalition nuclear energy policy, Mr Dutton described the CSIRO’s GenCost report on the cost of electricity generation as “discredited” and “not a genuine piece of work” and suggested it was “well documented” that the CSIRO cannot be relied on." [InnovationAUS, 15 March 2024]

 

Open letter from Dr Doug Hilton, Chief Executive, CSIRO

15 MARCH 2024

NEWS RELEASE

Science is crucial to providing the data and models that allow society to tackle profound challenges; challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, transition to net zero, keeping Australian industry productive and sustainable, and protecting our unique biodiversity.

For science to be useful and for challenges to be overcome it requires the trust of the community. Maintaining trust requires scientists to act with integrity. Maintaining trust also requires our political leaders to resist the temptation to disparage science.

As Chief Executive of CSIRO, I will staunchly defend our scientists and our organisation against unfounded criticism.

The GenCost report is updated each year and provides the very best estimates for the cost of future new-build electricity generation in Australia. The report is carefully produced, its methodology is clearly articulated, our scientists are open and responsive to feedback, and as is the case for all creditable science, the report is updated regularly as new data comes to hand.

The GenCost report can be trusted by all our elected representatives, irrespective of whether they are advocating for electricity generation by renewables, coal, gas or nuclear energy.

No matter the challenge we are tackling, CSIRO’s scientists and engineers can be relied on by the community to work creatively, assiduously and with integrity.

Dr Douglas Hilton

Chief Executive, CSIRO

Some of the mainstream media headlines generated by Dutton's attempt to deny the considerable downside of introducing nuclear power stations into Australia's energy grid........

The Guardian

CSIRO chief warns against ‘disparaging science’ after Peter Dutton criticises nuclear energy costings

Douglas Hilton says he will 'staunchly defend' scientists as opposition leader repeats incorrect claim that CSIRO report does not accurately...

15.03.24

Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Nation's science agency CSIRO hits back at Dutton claim that nuclear power costings were 'discredited'

The CSIRO has rebuked politicians seeking to undermine its research showing nuclear energy would be much more expensive than solar or wind...

15.03.24

The Sydney Morning Herald

‘Don’t disparage the science’: CSIRO hits back at Dutton on nuclear energy

Australia's top science agency has made a rare political intervention as CSIRO chief executive Doug Hilton defended his agency's findings on...

15.03.24

News.com.au

Nuclear question Dutton won’t answer

Peter Dutton has failed to answer a key question in a fiery clash with Bill Shorten over nuclear energy.

15.03.24

The New Daily

CSIRO hits back at Dutton's 'unfounded' criticism

Australia's national science agency has taken aim at Liberal leader Peter Dutton in a highly unusual public intervention.

15.03.24

The Canberra Times

CSIRO Chief defends GenCost report from political attack

Dr. Doug Hilton stands by CSIRO's GenCost report findings amidst political criticism from Coalition leader Peter Dutton.

15.03.24

The Age

CSIRO hits back at Dutton attack on its nuclear energy reports

Australia's top science agency has made a rare political intervention, with CSIRO chief executive Douglas Hilton defending his agency's...

15.03.24

Hunter Valley News

CSIRO boss defends scientists after Dutton attack

CSIRO chief executive officer Douglas Hilton has issued a rare public statement to urge politicians to "resist the...

15.03.24

The Wimmera Mail-Times

CSIRO boss defends scientists after Dutton attack

CSIRO chief executive officer Douglas Hilton has issued a rare public statement to urge politicians to "resist the...

15.03.24

Then on the same day the Centre for Independent Studies, a conservative seemingly pro-nuclear 'think tank' which also supported the No position in the 2023 national referendum and whose executive director just happened in 2008 to have been a senior adviser to former federal Liberal Party Leader Brendan Nelson and in 2009 was himself he a candidate to replace Nelson in his northern Sydney electoral seat of Bradfield, attempted to ride to Peter Dutton's rescue on social media with a whitewash of the Opposition Leader's comments and an interesting interpretation of the contents of CSIRO news release.

Centre for Independent Studies @CISOZ

CIS responds to @CSIRO's open letter.

"Not all criticisms are unfounded. If the CEO wants to defend the methods and conclusions of a particular report from criticism, he should do just that, rather than simply asserting that the report can be trusted when serious flaws still exist."

15.03.24

CSIRO: new research shows that stronger El Niño may speed up warming of deep waters in the Antarctic shelf, making ice shelves and ice sheets melt faster

 

CSIRO News, 21 February 2023:

Stronger El Niño could cause irreversible melting of Antarctica

Totten Glacier. Photo: Esmee Van Wijk

New research led by scientists at CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, has shown that future increases in the strength of El Niño may accelerate the irreversible melting of ice shelves and ice sheets in Antarctica.

The results, published in Nature Climate Change, used climate models to show how an increase in the variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) leads to reduced warming near the surface, but accelerated warming of deeper ocean waters.

ENSO is a key driver of climate variability, as both its warm phase, El Niño, and its colder phase, La Niña, influence weather conditions around the world, including in Australia.

Wenju Cai, lead author of this study and global expert on the relationship between climate change and ENSO, said the research was a critical step in further understanding how Antarctica will be affected by climate change.

“Climate change is expected to increase the magnitude of ENSO, making both El Niño and La Niña stronger,” Dr Cai said.

“This new research shows that stronger El Niño may speed up warming of deep waters in the Antarctic shelf, making ice shelves and ice sheets melt faster.

“Our modelling also revealed that warming around the edges of floating sea ice is slowed during this process, slowing down the melting of sea ice near the surface.

“Models with increased ENSO variability show a reduced upwelling of deeper, warmer waters, leading to slower warming of the ocean surface,” he said.

The associated winds around Antarctica are the mechanism driving this result.

When ENSO variability increases, it slows the intensifying westerly winds along the shelf. As a result, the upwelling of warm water around Antarctica is not able to increase as much.

The research team examined 31 climate models that participated in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under historical forcings and a high-emissions scenario.

Co-author Ariaan Purich from Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future at Monash University said the effects of increasing ENSO variability go beyond extreme weather risks, and affect changes in Antarctic sea ice and ice shelves and sheets.

“This could have broad implications for the global climate system, so continuing to understand how ENSO will respond to climate change is a critical area of climate research,” Dr Purich said.

“There is still a lot more we need to understand about processes influencing shelf temperatures, and the finding is an important piece of the puzzle," she said.

The Northern Rivers region is at least two years away from a genuine region-wide flood watch system, leaving populations on the flood plains potentially as vulnerable as they were in 2022

 

“The five-paragraph letter to Lismore City Council was short, dismissive.

The [NSW] Department of Planning and Environment was rejecting the council’s application for a $100,000 grant to improve its flood warning system. The proposed works - new rainfall and river height gauges, CCTV cameras and a “community flood dashboard” - were deemed “premature”.

Three days later, on February 28, the biggest flood in modern Australian history inundated Lismore, and the rest of the Northern Rivers.” [The Sydney Morning Herald, 30 June 2022]

The rainfall event that triggered the 22 February to 15 March 2022 Northern Rivers Flood reached its maximum intensity in less than 24 hours and, 41 climate gauge stations (out of the 108 active climate gauge stations covering the river basins about to flood) as well as 8 flood gauge stations (out of 86 active flood gauge stations covering those same basins) had already or were about to fail.

The most critical of these active station failures occurred in the Richmond, Tweed and Brunswick basins. While the absence of stations in sections of a number of highly variable flow river catchments & sub-catchments, along with the restricted form of official rainfall recording (9am to 9am), meant that blind spots were already built into the flood watch systems operating in the Northern Rivers region.

IMAGES: CSIRO (30 Nov 2022) Lerat, J. et al, “Characterisation of the 2022 floods in the Northern Rivers region”, pp. 2 & 15] Click on images to enlarge

MSM, 23 February 2023:

Warning systems will not be immediately improved under a $50 million plan to better protect the Northern Rivers from floods, despite a scathing CSIRO report finding an urgent need for a better system.

The report released today revealed for the first time the extent of failures in the state’s flood warning system during the February-March floods last year, which killed four people and left thousands of people stranded on their rooftops.

It also recommended the development of a comprehensive flood warning network, as revealed in the Herald this morning, but the government has not included this work in the first stage of projects to be funded on the back of the report. Another $100 million of projects are yet to be announced.

The report found the warning system failures in the Northern Rivers last year had “critical consequences”. They led to river heights being “severely underestimated” and “severely impacted” warning times.

The Wilsons River in Lismore peaked more than three metres higher than initially predicted by the Bureau of Meteorology on February 28 last year, catching the State Emergency Service and other emergency services off guard.

Towns downstream were also devastated over the following days, including Coraki, which was cut off for five days until the army was able to gain access on March 6.

The report, released on Thursday by federal emergency management minister Murray Watt, found that more than 50 gauges that measure rainfall and river heights failed in the Northern Rivers during the February and March floods.

Gaps in the network also meant the authorities did not realise how much rain was falling in some areas, or how high the rivers were running during the event.

“There is an urgent need for more rainfall and river height data to feed BOM’s predictive models and enable SES to disseminate appropriate warnings,” the report said.

“[Gauge failure] has major consequences for providing early warnings during a large flood event.”

Watt released the report in Lismore and outlined the first list of flood mitigation projects to be funded.

The list of projects includes almost $30 million to improve flood pumps in Lismore, $3 million to increase community flood risk awareness, and $3 million to support community-led resilience initiatives.

The state’s rain and river gauges, which inform flood predictions and warnings, are owned by four different government entities.

The CSIRO found this created issues around accountability when they malfunctioned.

“Whilst the cause of each gauge failure is yet to be determined, consistent maintenance of rain and river height gauges is likely to reduce the risk of gauge failure in future flood events,” it said.

“It is recommended that the failures are investigated and equipment is strengthened for future flood events.”

The report identified some of the key failures, including a key rain gauge in the Lismore hinterland that recorded a zero reading throughout the event, despite torrential rain.

“Even if it were functioning properly, it would have recorded an inaccurate reading as it is poorly placed under an overhanging tree,” the report said.

There was also a lack of gauges around Terania Creek, to the north of Lismore, which recorded some of the highest rainfall during the event.

This is despite the fact that, according to the Lismore flood plan, the two previous highest floods in Lismore – in 1954 and 1974 – were associated with very high rainfall over Terania Creek.

This lack of gauges “contributed to the underestimation of the flood peak at Lismore”, while a “lack of gauges in Bungawalbin catchment severely impacted warning times for towns downstream”.

The Sydney Morning Herald, 23 February 2023:

SES Commissioner Carlene York says the flood warning system for Lismore and the Northern Rivers remains inadequate, one year after a record-breaking disaster killed four people and left thousands homeless.

“It’s not a satisfactory situation, put it that way,” she told The Sydney Morning Herald, agreeing that gaps in the region’s network of rain and river gauges left the city vulnerable.

“Just as we have road traffic cameras so we can see what’s happening on the roads, from the SES point-of-view, we really want these gauges to give us timely information about what’s happening upstream so we can forecast the effects,” York said…..

Since the flood, the SES has permanently positioned five more boats in the Northern Rivers, as well as a high-clearance vehicle that can drive through floodwaters…..

State Labor MP for Lismore Janelle Saffin said the Northern Rivers gauge network should be the first fixed under the $15 million program.

“It needs to be done sooner rather than later,” she said. “I’ve asked that question of senior [state] government – if, God forbid, the 28th of February happened again, what’s the plan?

“I’d like it to be quicker on the gauges. I’m not sure it can be, but I’d certainly like it to be quicker than June 2025.”…..

Lismore Citizens Flood Review Group co-ordinator Beth Trevan said Lismore was still “very vulnerable” to flood and more needed to be done to protect the city.

She said it was worrying it could take another two years to improve the gauge network, but residents upstream were already able to provide information to warn the community before a flood – only SES headquarters did not know how to use it.

“It worries me, as [the SES] take no notice what people in upper reaches are telling them,” she said.

“As long as they’re relying on the BOM and the time it takes for the BOM to get the information from the gauges and put it through their computer systems, it’s never going to work. They need to go back to people.”

The CSIRO report also noted the value of information from property owners upstream…..

NOTE:

CSIRO 30 Nov 2022 report prepared for the National Emergency Management Agency, "Characterisation of the 2022 floods in the Northern Rivers region" can be found at: https://nema.gov.au/sites/default/files/inline-files/Characterisation%20of%20the%202022%20floods%20in%20the%20Northern%20Rivers%20region.pdf 

and 

CSIRO 30 Nov 2022 report prepared for the National Emergency Management Agency, "Rapid Project Prioritisation for Flood Resilience in the Northern Rivers region" can be found at: https://nema.gov.au/sites/default/files/inline-files/Rapid%20Prioritisation%20for%20Flood%20Resilience%20in%20the%20Northern%20Rivers%20region.pdf

Remembering......

In the little town of Yamba on the Clarence Coast section of the Northern Rivers region we watched in disbelief and horror at what was unfolding to the north of us on the afternoon, evening and night of 28 February 2022 and what first light brought into view on 1 March. 

Whilst at the same time in the 24 hours up to 9am on 28 February 274.4mm of rain fell on Yamba township and continued to fall with another 258.2mm up to 9am on 1 March - initially driven by winds gusting up to 81km per hour - before the rain cell shifted position. 

This resulted in a mixture of river water and stormwater entering streets and/or properties it had either never entered before or had previously entered at lower water heights. All of which was exacerbated by flood waters still travelling down the Clarence River into the tidal estuary system. 

Active climate gauge and flood gauge station failures were not a feature of the town's surprise at this unexpected flooding pattern. 

Rather it was a belated realisation of the complete failure of successive local & state governments to give serious consideration to the level of risk associated with the extent and height of largescale land filling, which was now altering how both flood waters and stormwater (unable to be cleared by a drainage system design made inadequate by continuing urban growth) travelled across land within the town precincts. As well as the fact that this change in flood pattern meant more people became cut off from the town's risible evacuation plan & route.

Like the issues with the Northern Rivers flood watch system, the issue of Yamba's changed flood pattern remains unaddressed to date.

CSIRO-BOM State of the Climate 2022 report and what it says about the World, Australia & the NSW Coastal Zone

“There are no surprises here and the story hasn’t changed. It’s happening, it’s serious and we need to do something about it.” [CSIRO Ocean & Atmosphere Business Unit, Research Director at Climate Science Centre, Dr. Jaclyn Brown, The Guardian, 23 November 2022]

Yes, the story hasn't changed. However, the details are becoming clearer as to how, when and to what degree there will be disruption to Australian society, the national economy and food security — along with increasing risks to the health, safety and well being of the entire population — before national collapse occurs.

Once every two years the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in partnership with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) produce a State of the Climate report.

The current 2022 report is the seventh report in the series. Previous reports can be found here.

The key points in State of the Climate 2022 are as follows:

Australia

• Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910.

• Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.05 °C since 1900. This has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea.

• There has been a decline of around 15 per cent in April to October rainfall in the southwest of Australia since 1970. Across the same region, May to July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 19 per cent since 1970.

• In the south-east of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 10 per cent in April to October rainfall since the late 1990s.

• There has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across Australia since 1975.

• Rainfall and streamflow have increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.

• There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.

• There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region.

• Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions since the late 1950s.

• Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed by more than 1 °C since 1900, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.

• Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes that are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

Global

• Concentrations of all the major long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase, with global annual mean carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reaching 414.4 parts per million (ppm) in 2021 and the CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) of all greenhouse gases reaching 516 ppm. These are the highest levels on Earth in at least two million years.

• The decline in global fossil fuel emissions of CO2 in 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have a negligible impact on climate change. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise, and fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the principal driver of this growth, were back to near pre-pandemic levels in 2021.

• The rate of accumulation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (both greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere increased considerably during 2020 and 2021.

• Globally averaged air temperature at the Earth’s surface has warmed by over 1 °C since reliable records began in 1850. Each decade since 1980 has been warmer than the last, with 2011–20 being around 0.2 °C warmer than 2001–10.

• The world’s oceans, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, have taken up 91 per cent of the extra energy stored by the planet (as heat) as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.

• More than half of all CO2 emissions from human activities are absorbed by land and ocean sinks, which act to slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.

• Global mean sea levels have risen by around 25 cm since 1880 and continue to rise at an accelerating rate.

Future

In the coming decades, Australia will experience ongoing changes to its weather and climate. Australia is projected to experience:

• Continued increase in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.

• Continued decrease, on average, in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, which will likely lead to more time in drought, but with ongoing climate variability that will give rise to short-duration heavy-rainfall events at a range of timescales.

• Continued increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia.

• Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.

• Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments, such as kelp forests, and increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef.

• Fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion is projected to be of high intensity, with large variations from year to year.

• Reduced average snow depth in alpine regions, but with variations from year to year.

On a more local level for many North Coast Voices readers........

KEY MESSAGES FOR THE NSW COASTAL ZONE IN 2030     (8 years into the future)

• Average temperatures will continue to increase in all seasons (very high confidence).

• More hot days and warm spells are projected with very high confidence. Fewer frosts are projected with high confidence.

• Decreases in winter rainfall are projected with medium confidence. Other changes are possible but unclear.

• Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected, with high confidence.

• Mean sea level will continue to rise and height of extreme sea-level events will also increase (very high confidence).

• A harsher fire-weather climate in the future (high confidence).

• On annual and decadal basis, natural variability in the climate system can act to either mask or enhance any long-term human induced trend, particularly in the next 20 years and for rainfall. 

[https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/projections-tools/regional-climate-change-explorer/sub-clusters/]

The full State of the Climate 2022 biennial report can be read and downloaded at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2022/documents/2022-state-of-the-climate-web.pdf. - Presentation Style A

https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate - Presentation Style B

Turning to the next three months across Australia.......

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 24 November 2022

December to February rainfall is likely (greater than 60% chance) to be above median for the Queensland coast, north coastal and southern New South Wales, all of Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and eastern Tasmania. Below median rainfall is likely for parts of Western Australia.

December to February maximum temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) to be warmer than median for Tasmania, and most of northern and western Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for south-eastern parts of Queensland, central and eastern New South Wales, parts of Victoria and the south coast of Western Australia.

December to February minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (greater than 60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of western, northern and south-east Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for parts of north-east New South Wales.

This wet outlook over northern and eastern Australia is consistent with several climate drivers, including La Niña, a weakened negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, and record warm waters around Australia. A Madden–Julian Oscillation pulse is strengthening as it moves into the Western Pacific region, which may also contribute to wetter conditions for parts of north-eastern Australia.

[my yellow highlighting]