The number of state primary & high school places not keeping up with population growth in NSW coastal zone

The Sydney Morning Herald, 1 January 2023:

Sydney’s overcrowded schools crisis has extended to coastal sea change hotspots with parents told catchments will be changed because of a surge in population growth.

It comes as schools in beachside towns such as Byron Bay Public in the state’s north, Copacabana Public on the central coast and Berry and Gerringong Public on the south coast are all over their official enrolment caps as parents escaped capital cities over the past few years.

Parents at Port Macquarie Public, Hastings Secondary College and Telegraph Point Public in the Port Macquarie region were told in December school catchment zones would change from 2024.

“As you may be aware, Port Macquarie has experienced substantial growth in recent years,” Telegraph Point Public told parents via a December.

“Changes to school intake areas have been necessary to ensure an appropriate balance of students across all schools and that education continues to be delivered to the highest quality.

“These changes reflect the current demographics and enrolment and travel patterns of our region as well as ongoing feedback from the community.”

Port Macquarie Public P&C member Donna McGufficke was concerned the boundary changes could lead to segregation between the children of battlers in the town and the affluent suburbs where sea changers were buying up homes.

“The new catchments mean the two socio-economic disadvantaged students from one primary school will go to one high school, they have sent the two advantaged primary school students to another high school,” she said…..

Further north in Byron Bay, where the population jumped by 14 per cent from 29,208 in 2011 to 36,116 in 2021, local real estate agent Ed Silk said Catholic and public schools were in demand, but one type of school was the biggest drawcard for parents.

“They come here from all over so their kids can attend Steiner … there is a waitlist, there has always been a waitlist but it is getting quite large,” he said.

Cape Byron Rudolf Steiner School tells prospective parents “you may have a long wait” before being offered a place on its website.

“Currently all of our classes are full and in most cases we have extended waiting lists. As our waiting lists are growing rapidly, we are unable to guarantee placement within a specified timeframe,” the school says…..

CSIRO-BOM State of the Climate 2022 report and what it says about the World, Australia & the NSW Coastal Zone

“There are no surprises here and the story hasn’t changed. It’s happening, it’s serious and we need to do something about it.” [CSIRO Ocean & Atmosphere Business Unit, Research Director at Climate Science Centre, Dr. Jaclyn Brown, The Guardian, 23 November 2022]

Yes, the story hasn't changed. However, the details are becoming clearer as to how, when and to what degree there will be disruption to Australian society, the national economy and food security — along with increasing risks to the health, safety and well being of the entire population — before national collapse occurs.

Once every two years the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in partnership with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) produce a State of the Climate report.

The current 2022 report is the seventh report in the series. Previous reports can be found here.

The key points in State of the Climate 2022 are as follows:

Australia

• Australia’s climate has warmed by an average of 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910.

• Sea surface temperatures have increased by an average of 1.05 °C since 1900. This has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and sea.

• There has been a decline of around 15 per cent in April to October rainfall in the southwest of Australia since 1970. Across the same region, May to July rainfall has seen the largest decrease, by around 19 per cent since 1970.

• In the south-east of Australia, there has been a decrease of around 10 per cent in April to October rainfall since the late 1990s.

• There has been a decrease in streamflow at most gauges across Australia since 1975.

• Rainfall and streamflow have increased across parts of northern Australia since the 1970s.

• There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a longer fire season, across large parts of the country since the 1950s.

• There has been a decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region.

• Snow depth, snow cover and number of snow days have decreased in alpine regions since the late 1950s.

• Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed by more than 1 °C since 1900, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves.

• Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes that are increasing the risk of inundation and damage to coastal infrastructure and communities.

Global

• Concentrations of all the major long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase, with global annual mean carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reaching 414.4 parts per million (ppm) in 2021 and the CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) of all greenhouse gases reaching 516 ppm. These are the highest levels on Earth in at least two million years.

• The decline in global fossil fuel emissions of CO2 in 2020 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have a negligible impact on climate change. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise, and fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the principal driver of this growth, were back to near pre-pandemic levels in 2021.

• The rate of accumulation of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (both greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere increased considerably during 2020 and 2021.

• Globally averaged air temperature at the Earth’s surface has warmed by over 1 °C since reliable records began in 1850. Each decade since 1980 has been warmer than the last, with 2011–20 being around 0.2 °C warmer than 2001–10.

• The world’s oceans, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, have taken up 91 per cent of the extra energy stored by the planet (as heat) as a result of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations.

• More than half of all CO2 emissions from human activities are absorbed by land and ocean sinks, which act to slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.

• Global mean sea levels have risen by around 25 cm since 1880 and continue to rise at an accelerating rate.

Future

In the coming decades, Australia will experience ongoing changes to its weather and climate. Australia is projected to experience:

• Continued increase in air temperatures, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes.

• Continued decrease, on average, in cool season rainfall across many regions of southern and eastern Australia, which will likely lead to more time in drought, but with ongoing climate variability that will give rise to short-duration heavy-rainfall events at a range of timescales.

• Continued increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia.

• Further sea level rise and continued warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.

• Increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves that will affect marine environments, such as kelp forests, and increase the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs around Australia, including the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef.

• Fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion is projected to be of high intensity, with large variations from year to year.

• Reduced average snow depth in alpine regions, but with variations from year to year.

On a more local level for many North Coast Voices readers........

KEY MESSAGES FOR THE NSW COASTAL ZONE IN 2030     (8 years into the future)

• Average temperatures will continue to increase in all seasons (very high confidence).

• More hot days and warm spells are projected with very high confidence. Fewer frosts are projected with high confidence.

• Decreases in winter rainfall are projected with medium confidence. Other changes are possible but unclear.

• Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected, with high confidence.

• Mean sea level will continue to rise and height of extreme sea-level events will also increase (very high confidence).

• A harsher fire-weather climate in the future (high confidence).

• On annual and decadal basis, natural variability in the climate system can act to either mask or enhance any long-term human induced trend, particularly in the next 20 years and for rainfall. 

[https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/projections-tools/regional-climate-change-explorer/sub-clusters/]

The full State of the Climate 2022 biennial report can be read and downloaded at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/2022/documents/2022-state-of-the-climate-web.pdf. - Presentation Style A

https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate - Presentation Style B

Turning to the next three months across Australia.......

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Long-range forecast overview

Issued: 24 November 2022

December to February rainfall is likely (greater than 60% chance) to be above median for the Queensland coast, north coastal and southern New South Wales, all of Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and eastern Tasmania. Below median rainfall is likely for parts of Western Australia.

December to February maximum temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) to be warmer than median for Tasmania, and most of northern and western Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for south-eastern parts of Queensland, central and eastern New South Wales, parts of Victoria and the south coast of Western Australia.

December to February minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (greater than 60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of western, northern and south-east Australia. Below median temperatures are likely for parts of north-east New South Wales.

This wet outlook over northern and eastern Australia is consistent with several climate drivers, including La Niña, a weakened negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, and record warm waters around Australia. A Madden–Julian Oscillation pulse is strengthening as it moves into the Western Pacific region, which may also contribute to wetter conditions for parts of north-eastern Australia.

[my yellow highlighting]

The Independent Report into the 2022 NSW floods is now public. Will the response of the Perrottet Coalition Government result in a half-hearted 'rinse and repeat' approach to post-flood planning? Or will there be a serious effort to address risk?

 

Call me cynical, but after spending decades watching property developers, the construction industry, business lobbyists, venal politicians and dodgy local government administrations make a mockery of federal and state laws meant to protect against environmental vandalism, planning decisions that place communities at risk and sub-standard dwelling design and construction, I have yet to see any indication that the NSW Perrottet Government or various local governments intend to do more than paper over the current and future flood risks within the est. 100km wide & 2,007km long coastal zone of New South Wales.

GRAPHIC: Fuller M. & O’Kane M. (29 July 2022) Report, 2022 Flood Inquiry Volume One: Summary.

Data used in the infographic on the prior page is from the following sources:

• Rainfall data. Bureau of Meteorology. (2022). Special Climate Statement 76 – Extreme rainfall and flooding in south-eastern Queensland and eastern NSW. Retrieved from: scs76.pdf (bom.gov.au)

• Roads data. Transport for NSW. (2022). Advice to the Inquiry provided and valid as of 21 July 2022. 

• Agricultural data. Department of Primary Industries. (2022). Advice to the Inquiry provided and valid as of 4 July 2022.

• Unless specified above, data has been provided to the Inquiry from Resilience NSW and is valid as of 13 July 2022. This does not include Inquiry data.

Fuller M. & O’Kane M. (... by clarencegirl

The full report can be found at:

https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/noindex/2022-08/VOLUME_TWO_Full%20report.pdf

BACKGROUND

A brief explanation of the processes involved in 2022 high rainfall events.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Special Climate Statement 76, 25 May 2022, excerpt:

The 2022 rainfall and flooding were the result of a blocking high pressure system over New Zealand, that assisted the formation of a series of slow-moving low pressure systems within a trough that fed a large volume of warm moist air from the Coral and Tasman seas into eastern Australia. The subsequent development of a series of deep low pressure systems delivered intense rain to east and south-east New South Wales. Following two years of La Niña conditions, the rain fell on catchments that were already wet so water storages and river levels were high and catchments quickly became saturated…..

BOM, Key climate drivers behind record rainfall in New South Wales, 5 July 2022, excerpt:

The Bureau's 2022 winter outlook showed above average rainfall over the coming months, particularly for most of eastern and northern Australia, due to warmer than usual waters around the continent and more moisture-filled air being directed into eastern Australia. 

University of New South Wales, Newsroom, 8 March 2022:

At any one time, Earth’s atmosphere holds only about a week’s worth of rain. But rainfall and floods have devastated Australia’s eastern regions for weeks and more heavy rain is forecast. So where’s all this water coming from?

We recently investigated the physical processes driving rainfall in eastern Australia. By following moisture from the oceans to the land, we worked out exactly how three oceans feed water to the atmosphere, conspiring to deliver deluges of rain similar to what we’re seeing now.

Such research is important. A better understanding of how water moves through the atmosphere is vital to more accurately forecast severe weather and help communities prepare.

The task takes on greater urgency under climate change, when heavy rainfall and other weather extremes are expected to become more frequent and violent.

Big actors delivering rain

The past few months in eastern Australia have been very wet, including the rainiest November on record.

Then in February, heavy rain fell on already saturated catchments. In fact, parts of Australia received more than triple the rain expected at this time of year.

So what’s going on?

In the theatre that is Australia’s rainfall, there are some big actors – the so-called climate oscillations. They’re officially known as:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): this cycle comprises El Niño and its opposite, La Niña. ENSO involves temperature changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns around the world

Southern Annular Mode (SAM): the north-south movement of strong westerly winds over the Southern Ocean

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): changes in ocean temperatures and winds across the tropical Indian Ocean.

Like swings in a character’s mood, each climate mode has positive, negative and neutral phases. Each affect Australia’s weather in different ways.

ENSO’s negative phase, La Niña, brings wetter conditions to eastern Australia. The IOD’s negative phase, and SAM’s positive phase, can also bring more rain.

Going back in time

We studied what happens to the moisture supplying eastern Australian rainfall when these climate drivers are in their wet and dry phases.

We used a sophisticated model to trace moisture backwards in time: from where it fell as rain, back through the atmosphere to where it evaporated from.

We did this for every wet winter and spring day between 1979 and 2013.

This research was part of a broader study into where Australia’s rain comes from, and what changes moisture supply during both drought and heavy rain.

We found most rain that falls on eastern Australia comes from moisture evaporated from a nearby ocean. Typically, rain in eastern Australia comes from the Coral and Tasman seas. This is depicted in the strong blue colours in the figure below.

But interestingly, some water comes from as far as the Southern and Indian oceans, and some originates from nearby land areas, such as forests, bare soils, lakes and rivers.

Natural processes can alter the typical supply of moisture to the atmosphere, causing either droughts or floods.

Read the full article here.