The number of state primary & high school places not keeping up with population growth in NSW coastal zone

The Sydney Morning Herald, 1 January 2023:

Sydney’s overcrowded schools crisis has extended to coastal sea change hotspots with parents told catchments will be changed because of a surge in population growth.

It comes as schools in beachside towns such as Byron Bay Public in the state’s north, Copacabana Public on the central coast and Berry and Gerringong Public on the south coast are all over their official enrolment caps as parents escaped capital cities over the past few years.

Parents at Port Macquarie Public, Hastings Secondary College and Telegraph Point Public in the Port Macquarie region were told in December school catchment zones would change from 2024.

“As you may be aware, Port Macquarie has experienced substantial growth in recent years,” Telegraph Point Public told parents via a December.

“Changes to school intake areas have been necessary to ensure an appropriate balance of students across all schools and that education continues to be delivered to the highest quality.

“These changes reflect the current demographics and enrolment and travel patterns of our region as well as ongoing feedback from the community.”

Port Macquarie Public P&C member Donna McGufficke was concerned the boundary changes could lead to segregation between the children of battlers in the town and the affluent suburbs where sea changers were buying up homes.

“The new catchments mean the two socio-economic disadvantaged students from one primary school will go to one high school, they have sent the two advantaged primary school students to another high school,” she said…..

Further north in Byron Bay, where the population jumped by 14 per cent from 29,208 in 2011 to 36,116 in 2021, local real estate agent Ed Silk said Catholic and public schools were in demand, but one type of school was the biggest drawcard for parents.

“They come here from all over so their kids can attend Steiner … there is a waitlist, there has always been a waitlist but it is getting quite large,” he said.

Cape Byron Rudolf Steiner School tells prospective parents “you may have a long wait” before being offered a place on its website.

“Currently all of our classes are full and in most cases we have extended waiting lists. As our waiting lists are growing rapidly, we are unable to guarantee placement within a specified timeframe,” the school says…..

It seems that people are voting with their feet when it comes to New South Wales - this state experienced an unprecedented exodus of its residents to other states and territories in the last five years

 

New South Wales was home to 8,072,163 men, women and children or 31.8 per cent of the Australian population according to the August 2021 national census.

The state's total population had grown by 591,935 people since the previous census in 2016.

It was also the state that in the five years before the 2021 Census lost the most people to migration to other states and territories, 102,200 to be exact.

The state’s net migration was an unprecedented drop. No other state or territory experience a net migration as large – in fact net migration for QLD exceeded +100,000 people, which was an unprecedented jump.

Click on image to enlarge

When it came to internal migration within New South Wales over the same five years there was a trasfer of population from Sydney to regional areas.

Of all the Australian capital cities, Sydney experienced the biggest net loss (-49,100), which was 0.9% of the city’s population. Unsurprisingly Brisbane showed a rising net gain in population from internal migration.

In Northern NSW.......

Between August 2016 and August 2021 the ABS SA4 statistical area Richmond-Tweed saw 34,527 people arriving and 29,370 leaving, resulting in a net population gain from movement into the area of 5,157 people.

Between August 2020 and August 2021 the net population gain from movement into the area was 558 people.

The ABS SA4 statistical area Coffs-Grafton in that same five year period saw 19,249 people moving into the area and 16,374 leaving, resulting in a net population gain from movement into the area of 2,875 people.

Between August 2020 and August 2021 the net population gain from movement into the Coffs-Grafton area was only 436 people.

Pandemic leaving locals without affordable housing in Northern NSW as more seachangers & treechangers leave cities for good

 

The Sydney Morning Herald, 15 July 2022:

Some tenants in regional NSW are facing displacement and homelessness due to rents spiking 30 per cent since the start of the pandemic.

The majority of council areas outside Sydney posted double-digit percentage point increases in median rents in the past 12 months to June, the latest Domain Rent Report, released on Thursday, showed.

Some tenants in regional NSW are facing displacement and homelessness due to rents spiking 30 per cent since the start of the pandemic.

The majority of council areas outside Sydney posted double-digit percentage point increases in median rents in the past 12 months to June, the latest Domain Rent Report, released on Thursday, showed.

It has left local tenants priced out of their rental markets, forcing some to leave their home towns as their budgets are eaten up by falling wages in real terms and a rising cost of living.

Domain chief of research and economics Dr Nicola Powell said the record growth in rents was driven by a strong sales market during the pandemic as city buyers took homes off the rental market and moved into them to live.

“The supply of rental properties, but also the new supply pipeline of housing, hasn’t been able to keep pace with the change in demand,” she said.

“We’ll see more people fall into rental stress. It does make lower-income households extremely vulnerable.”

KPMG demographer and urban economist Terry Rawnsley also said skyrocketing regional rents were a hangover of the pandemic.

He said tenants with city incomes have pushed up rents rapidly and have snapped up the historically low levels of rental supply in the regions….. 

Domain June 2022 Rental Report, excerpts:

What's happened to house and unit rents in your capital city?

Regional NSW

Houses	Jun-22	Jun-21	Jun-17	YoY	5-Yr
Albury	$420	$365	$300	+15.1%	+40.0%
Armidale Regional	$420	$370	$330	+13.5%	+27.3%
Ballina	$700	$620	$485	+12.9%	+44.3%
Bathurst Regional	$440	$400	$330	+10.0%	+33.3%
Bega Valley	$530	$460	$360	+15.2%	+47.2%
Bellingen	$525	$520	$375	+1.0%	+40.0%
Broken Hill	$313	$270	$235	+15.7%	+33.0%
Byron	$950	$900	$650	+5.6%	+46.2%
Cessnock	$480	$400	$340	+20.0%	+41.2%
Clarence Valley	$485	$450	$370	+7.8%	+31.1%

Source: Domain

 

Suburbs/Towns NSW

Units	Jun-22	YoY	5-Yr
Abbotsford	$580	+6.4%	-3.3%
Aberglasslyn	$450
Adamstown	$420	+13.5%	+40.0%
Albury	$300	+11.1%	+39.5%
Alexandria	$565	+8.7%	-5.0%
Allawah	$420	0.0%	-8.7%
Alstonville	$445	+8.5%	+43.5%
Annandale	$440	+4.8%	-8.3%
Armidale	$275	+5.8%	+19.6%
Arncliffe	$500	0.0%	-9.1%

Source: Domain