Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
Sea Surface
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| Click on images to enlarge |
Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and April 2024, with May 2024 SSTs on track to be warmer than May 2023.....The global pattern of warmth is affecting the typical historical global patterns of sea surface temperatures associated with ENSO and IOD, meaning inferences of how ENSO or IOD may develop in 2024 based on past events may not be reliable.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Driver Update, 28 May 2024, excerpts:
The ENSO Outlook is currently at 'La Niña Watch', meaning there are some signs that a La Niña might form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee that a La Niña will develop. Climate models suggest that SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool over the coming months. Four of seven models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, with the remaining three models showing SSTs cooling to La Niña levels from August.
La Niña Watch
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| La Niña spectrum is the grades of blue |
The chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased.
NOTE:
Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23°C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has been a shift to drier conditions across the south-west and south-east in the cool season (April to October) due to natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
