Starting 2024 the way we ended 2023.........
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVE
ABC News (Australia), 8 February 2024:
Global temperatures through January were the warmest on record at 1.66 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
The month was 0.12C above the previous warmest January in 2020 and extends the run of record warm months to eight, following similar unprecedented temperatures from June to December last year.
Monthly Global Temperature Anomaly
Relative to pre-industrial 1850-1900 baseline
The greatest anomalies last month were seen across eastern Canada and south-west Asia where temperatures were nearly 5C above the 1991-2020 average.
Australia's mean was 1.54C above the 1961-1990 baseline average, making it the country's third warmest January on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
The run of abnormal heat has now lifted the 12-month for the first time.
With the target now temporarily breached, a permanent rise above 1.5C is now projected to arrive in less than 10 years.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the agency was "sounding the alarm" that the world would "breach the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency".
Oceans simmering - warm enough for a tropical cyclone off the NSW coast
The average global sea surface temperature (SST) was also at unprecedented levels last month, a staggering 0.26C warmer than the previous January record in 2016 and only 0.01°C off the all-time record from August 2023.
The heat observed in the world's oceans has been a notable feature of the climate during the past year – passing global monthly records for 10 consecutive months.
The record run is almost certain to reach 11 months as the Earth's water temperature is currently running at levels well beyond all previous years — daily SSTs climbed to 21.05C this week, more than 0.2C above the previous February high and above the previous all-time high of 21.02C from August 2023.
The warm global waters are also being felt off Australia's east coast.
Data from the Climate Change Institute shows parts of the northern Tasman Sea are currently as much as 3C above average at around 28C - equal to a typical summer water temperature off the tropical Queensland coast.
The waters are so warm right now off the NSW north coast they could theoretically support the formation of a tropical cyclone, exceeding the threshold for development of 26.5C.
While enough evaporation is occurring for a cyclone to form off the NSW coast, they require numerous additional ingredients which are currently absent.
Climate change the main driver of records
Historical data shows than even though El Niño increases global temperatures, the trend during the past 12 months is well outside the typical warming.
"Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing," Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service Samantha Burgess said.
However, considering the year after El Niño forms is typically warmer than the previous year, there is a good chance 2024 will end up beating the recent record warm 2023.
Out of the past 15 El Niño episodes, 13 led to a rise in the Earth's air temperature in the second year.
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PERSPECTIVE
The Guardian (UK), 7 February 2024:
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From deadly floods in California to devastating fires in Chile, scientists say the world is not prepared for the climate disasters that are hitting with increasing frequency as human-driven global heating continues to break records.
The hottest year in history has been followed by the warmest ever January. Many regions in the northern hemisphere are sweltering in heatwaves that would be more normal in June. Marine scientists are shocked by the prolonged and intense heat at the surface of the oceans.
Scientists say the extreme heat is mostly the result of human activity, such as the burning of oil, gas and coal and the cutting down of forests. This has been amplified by natural factors, particularly the El Niño – a phenomenon associated with Pacific Ocean warming – that started last year and is expected to continue until spring at the earliest.
This year has a one in three chance of being even hotter than last year’s record, according to the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The higher the global temperature, the greater the risk of fires and flooding. This month alone has seen two grim records of such climate-related disasters.
The Chilean president, Gabriel Boric, has declared two days of national mourning after the country’s deadliest ever forest fires claimed more than 120 lives in the Valparaíso region. This follows a decade-long drought in the area and a shift from diverse natural forests, which are more resilient to fire, to monoculture plantations, which are more vulnerable.
In the US, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, announced a state of emergency as an “atmospheric river” – which was supercharged by the unusually warm Pacific Ocean – dumped unprecedented amounts of rain on San Diego and neighbouring districts, killing at least three people.
Attribution studies will be needed to ascertain the precise extent to which these particular calamities were drive by human-driven climate disruption, but they are in line with a broader trend towards increasingly severe impacts.
“Fuelled by extreme weather and climate extremes, the frequency of climate-related disasters has dramatically risen in recent years,” said Raul Cordero, a climate professor at the University of Groningen and the University of Santiago. “In some regions of the world, we are facing climate-fuelled disasters for which we are not prepared, and it is unlikely that we will be able to fully adapt to them.”
Richard Betts, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in the UK, said many extremes, including longer heatwaves, heavier rainfall, increased drought and more fire weather, were becoming more severe due to human-caused climate change.
“We can still limit the extent to which extremes get worse if we urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero – but with global emissions still rising, it’s hard not to be increasingly concerned about how we will deal with what’s coming,” Betts said. “We already need to adapt to the changes that we’ve already caused, and adaptation will become increasingly difficult the longer we leave it to reduce emissions.”
Of prime concern is what is happening to the oceans, which cover 71% of the planet and absorb most of the excess heat from global warming. In a letter published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Science last month, a group of scientists warned that sea surface temperatures last year were “off the chart”, with dire implications for atmospheric regulation and storm intensity.....
Guglielmo said scientists were now considering risks that had been unthinkable until recently. “2023 has broken so many records that a number of new hypotheses, including the dawn of a new phase in the global warming rate, have been floated. These hypotheses were not nearly as prevalent a year ago.”
