RBA Governor Lowe set to meet with Suicide Prevention Australia after indications there is a surge in people reporting elevated distress over cost-of-living pressures

 

The 10th consecutive cash rate rise announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia has low income and middle income Australia reeling.

Post, a daily newsletter from The Saturday Paper, from the pen of the Emails Editor, 8 March 2023, excerpt:

RBA governor Philip Lowe has announced a record 10th consecutive interest rate rise, but signalled the run may be coming to an end amid concerns the hikes are hurting wellbeing.

What we know:

• The RBA increased rates by 25 basis points at the board's March meeting, to 3.6% — the highest interest rate since May 2012 (Nine);

• Mortgage holders with a balance of $750,000 will pay an extra $121 a month — and are now likely paying about $18,900 more in repayments annually since May (realestate.com.au);

• Lowe’s language softened on the prospect of future rate rises however, with economists suggesting there might only be one or two left (AFR $);

• He is set to meet representatives of Suicide Prevention Australia, the peak body that has raised the alarm about a surge in people reporting elevated distress over cost-of-living pressures (The Age);

• Research by Suicide Prevention Australia, given to Lowe late last week, shows 46% of people are reporting high levels of cost-of-living distress;

• There has also been a lift in the number of people reporting serious thoughts of suicide, which reached 16%, with sharp increases in NSW and Victoria;

• Lowe will give further clues as to the RBA’s plans in a speech about inflation and recent economic data to a business conference today (Canberra Times);

• The RBA governor has previously warned of a wage-price spiral driving inflation, though wage growth has been slowing, while corporate profits are surging (The Saturday Paper).

BACKGROUND

Reserve Bank of Australia

Media Release

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

Number 2023-07

Date 7 March 2023

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.60 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent.

Global inflation remains very high. In headline terms it is moderating, although services price inflation remains elevated in many economies. It will be some time before inflation is back to target rates. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below average growth expected this year and next.

The monthly CPI indicator suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia. Goods price inflation is expected to moderate over the months ahead due to both global developments and softer demand in Australia. Services price inflation remains high, with strong demand for some services over the summer. Rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next, to be around 3 per cent in mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.

Growth in the Australian economy has slowed, with GDP increasing by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter and 2.7 per cent over the year. Growth over the next couple of years is expected to be below trend. Household consumption growth has slowed due to the tighter financial conditions and the outlook for housing construction has softened. In contrast, the outlook for business investment remains positive, with many businesses operating at a very high level of capacity utilisation.

The labour market remains very tight, although conditions have eased a little. The unemployment rate remains at close to a 50-year low. Employment fell in January, but this partly reflects changing seasonal patterns in labour hiring. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although some report a recent easing in labour shortages. As economic growth slows, unemployment is expected to increase.

Wages growth is continuing to pick up in response to the tight labour market and higher inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target and recent data suggest a lower risk of a cycle in which prices and wages chase one another. The Board, however, remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of the cumulative increase in interest rates is yet to be felt in mortgage payments. There is uncertainty around the timing and extent of the slowdown in household spending. Some households have substantial savings buffers, but others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their budgets due to higher interest rates and the increase in the cost of living. Household balance sheets are also being affected by the decline in housing prices. Another source of uncertainty is how the global economy responds to the large and rapid increase in interest rates around the world. These uncertainties mean that there are a range of potential scenarios for the Australian economy.

The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.

The Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary. In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.

NSW State of Play 2023: governments being 'city-centric' has consequences that follow remote & outer regional populations to their graves

 

The Australia Institute, media release, 14 February 2023:

New analysis reveals residents born in Far West NSW are suffering substantially worse health outcomes than residents in Sydney.

People in Far West NSW are dying earlier than they should, from avoidable causes, and while suicide rates have steadied in Sydney, they are on the rise in the most remote parts of the state.

The report warns of serious and growing inequality in health outcomes between city and country residents and recommends immediate investment in the sector.

Key points:

• Life expectancy: People born in the Far West have a life expectancy 5.7 years less than those in Sydney, with the divide worsening

• Premature death: Residents in Far Western NSW are 2x more likely to die prematurely than those in Sydney

• Avoidable death: ‘Potentially avoidable deaths’ are 2.5x more likely in the Far West than in Sydney

• Suicide: Residents in the NSW Far West are 2x as likely to commit suicide than those in Sydney, with a clear upwards trend in suicide rates

“Far West NSW is in serious need of medical attention. Where you live shouldn’t dictate how long you’ll live, but unfortunately in NSW it does” said Kate McBride, Researcher at The Australia Institute.

“Those in the Far West have significantly poorer health outcomes, inferior access to health services and face substantial financial challenges to access services.

“Life expectancy, premature deaths, and ‘potentially avoidable’ deaths are key statistical indicators of whether our health system is working. It is clear from the analysis in this report, sirens should be sounding from the Far West of the state.

“There’s a compelling case for significant investment across the continuum of care, from disease prevention to rehabilitation and ongoing care, in regional NSW.

“The first release in a series, this report reflects a wider national trend: That the health system is failing those living in regional and remote Australia” said Kate McBride.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RELATED RESEARCH

Kate McBride, The Unlucky Country: Life expectancy and health in regional and remote Australia. Part 1: NSW, February 2023.

FULL REPORT

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Excerpts from the McBride report:

“Australia has the world’s third highest life expectancy at 84.3 years. However, this national average masks the fact that the ‘lucky country’ has some rather less lucky residents. In every state and territory, those in regional and remote areas have life expectancies several years lower than in the city.

New South Wales (NSW) is a stark example of this divide. Life expectancy in Far West NSW is 79.1 years compared to 84.5 years in Sydney. This more than five-year gap has grown from relative parity at the turn of the millennium to the current gap. Today, a person in far west NSW is more than twice as likely to die prematurely (under 75) than someone in Sydney.

While there are many possible reasons for this discrepancy, overall, people die of the same causes in urban and remote parts of NSW; a comparison of the top causes of death in each area reveals that the top 10 are almost identical. However, regional and remote people are dying younger and from preventable causes at much higher rates than those in Sydney. Deaths considered ‘potentially avoidable’ are more than two and a half times as common in the far west than in the state’s capital.

It has been known for years that there is a suicide issue in regional Australia. Suicide rates in far west NSW—already more than twice as high than those in Sydney—are continuing to rise, while those in urban areas remain steady. But while suicide is a significant problem, it is only the tenth leading cause of death in the region. Suicide tends to take people at a younger age than other causes and as a result can disproportionally skew life expectancy, having said this there are other factors likely at play.

In 2022, a NSW Parliamentary Inquiry into health outcomes and access to services in rural, regional, and remote NSW found that people outside urban areas had significantly poorer health outcomes, inferior access to health services, and faced substantial financial challenges to access services.

This divide between life expectancy in the cities and in the country is a problem that extends beyond far western NSW. The city/country divide exists across Australia, and it is growing. Inequity between Australians living in capitals and remote areas is a significant problem that demands government intervention, particularly concerning overwhelmed and under resourced health systems.”

NOTE: I draw to the attention of "North Coast Voices" readers, living in what is the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Coffs Harbour-Grafton Level 4 Statistical Area, the fact that the combined populations of Clarence Valley and Coffs Harbour City have a projected life expectancy at birth which is 3.9 years lower than that of the population of the Greater Sydney metropolitan area. Only the projected life expectancy at birth for the Far West and Orana region has a worse comparative figure.

The only differences are dehydration and suicide (more below) in the Far West being replaced by heart failure and breast cancer in Greater Sydney. The similarity in causes of death suggests that the factors driving lower life expectancy in the far west are not due to different physical conditions or different lifestyles, but to how causes of death are prevented and managed. [my yellow highlighting]

Sadly, what the preceding paragraph is politely hinting at is that there is a culture within governments which tolerates and, perhaps even relies upon, inequality of access to health care along with an acceptance of delivery of poorer quality health care to those living in remote areas of New South Wales, as one of the tools which allows the provision of a much higher quality of health care to those living in metropolitan centres and inner regional areas on the fringes of major cities. 

That is where the bulk of the state's electorates and voter numbers are concentrated and, it will come as no surprise that ahead of the March 2023 state election little electoral growth was expected in the western half of New South Wales [Report of the Electoral Districts Redistribution Panel on the draft determination of the names and boundaries of electoral districts of New South Wales, 9 Nov 2020].

Clarence Valley-wide Level 4 Water Restrictions are in place on town water supplies until further notice

 

Clarence Valley Council, 31 January 2023:

Immediate Level 4 (Severe) Water Restrictions

Due to a prolonged dirty water event in the Nymboida River, immediate Level 4 (Severe) Water Restrictions have been introduced in order to avoid the need to call a Boil Water Alert for the whole Clarence Valley water supply system. This does NOT include Minnie Water and Wooli residents.

The Boil Water Alert for Coutts Crossing remains in place…..

Wednesday 1 February 2023 update

What we know

◾ Coutts Crossing is on a boil water alert.

◾ Level 4 restrictions are in place for all town water customers across the Valley.

◾ The return flow from Coffs Harbour was interrupted late last year following a fire at Karangi Dam, and reliance on the water supply was switched to the Nymboida River.

◾ Replenishing water supply has been impacted by dirty water at the Nymboida River intake following rain events.

◾ Daily consumption over the past week has been the highest on record, and stored treated water is quickly depleting.

◾ Since the March 2022 rainfall event, the water in Shannon Creek Dam has been too dirty to use. This is thought to be due to impacts from the 2019 bushfires. 

Clarence Valley Independent, 2 February 2023:

Residents across the Clarence Valley are being asked to restrict town water consumption in line with Level 4 (Severe) Water Restrictions to avoid an LGA-wide boil water alert.

Currently, only residents in Coutts Crossing are affected by the boil water alert.

This is due to the village’s storage having to be topped up directly from the Nymboida River which had elevated levels of turbidity that exceeded the NSW Health levels for drinking water.

Clarence Valley Council (CVC) General Manager Laura Black said over the past week, the water supply has experienced the highest daily consumption levels in several years which has triggered greater concern over the capacity of stored water supply.

“If we are forced to continue to supply the higher demand, we will need to draw dirty water into the system which may trigger the need for an LGA-wide boil water alert,” she said.

The situation has arisen because the water in the Nymboida River has a high turbidity level (dirty) following recent rain events, which impacts council’s ability to draw water directly from that source.

High turbidity has been experienced in the Shannon Creek Dam since the 2019 bushfires, exacerbated by the subsequent floods, restricting council’s use of that source also.

Until late last year, Clarence Valley water storage was being supplemented by accessing a return flow from Karangi Dam in Coffs Harbour.

However, things changed late last year when Coffs Harbour Council advised, due to damage to a switchboard, it could no longer provide the Clarence Valley with return flow, leaving the Nymboida River as the only drinking water source.

In response CVC approved the implementation of a number projects including:

· Construction of settling pond at Rushforth Road Water Treatment Plant (RRWTP), which will enable the drawing of water from the Nymboida River and/or Shannon Creek Dam when turbidity is higher than is currently acceptable.

· Hire and installation of filtration units in the villages of Coutts Crossing and Glenreagh, both of which are affected by the raw water supply to Coffs Harbour.

These activities were commenced prior to Christmas and are nearing completion (weather permitting).

“Over the Christmas and summer period daily consumption, dirty water levels at the intake, and stored and treated water levels have been monitored around the clock to mitigate risk of water restrictions and a boil water alert with the assistance of the NSW Departments of Planning, Industry and Environment and Health staff,” Ms Black said.

In other positive news, recommencement of the return flow of water from Coffs Harbour was negotiated this week.

This, coupled with the works already in train at RRWTP, Coutts Crossing and Glenreagh, is indicative of Council moving quickly to respond and resolve the current situation while causing the least amount of inconvenience to residents.

CVC Mayor Ian Tiley said the governing body has been kept abreast of the situation since it changed last year, and is appreciative of the staff effort to manage the situation and avoid water restrictions or boil water alerts over the Christmas period.

“Staff are monitoring the turbidity at the Nymboida River intake and as soon as it is safe to do so will draw more water into the system,” he said.

“I am confident the inconvenience will be short-lived.”

In the meantime, residents are asked to be patient and abide by the water restrictions.

So why did the NSW Perrottet Government compose and compile those documents in the 2021 "Flood prone land" package if its regional planning panels are allowed to play fast and loose with the package provisions when considering large scale-large dollar value developments?

"NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has vowed his government will not repeat “the mistakes of the past” in allowing development on floodplains that risks lives and property." [NSW Premier and Liberal MLA for Epping Dominic Perrottet, Financial Review, 22 July 2022]

"the days of developing on floodplains in the state were over" [NSW Premier and Liberal MLA for Epping Dominic Perrottet, AAP 28 October 2022]

Yamba, New South Wales, known to have a permanent First Nations settlement before 1799. Land area is enclosed by Pacific Ocean, Clarence River, Oyster Channel and Lake Wooloweyah. A coastal land corridor to the east of the lake approx. 1.12km wide and 1.13km long anchors Yamba & environs to the NSW mainland. IMAGE: Google Earth, October 2021

On 26 October 2022 Hometown America LLC through its subsidiary Hometown Australia received development consent from the NSW Northern Regional Planning Panel for DA2021/0558, 8 Park Ave Yamba, Multi-Dwelling Manufactured Housing (136 dwellings, clubhouse, community facilities for the over 50s).

This development consent was a split decision 3 to 2 – with the three permanent panel members Paul Mitchell, Steven Gow & Penny Holloway (or alternate) voting down the serious concerns held by the panel’s two local government area members, Clarence Valley Council Mayor Ian Tiley and Deputy Mayor Greg Clancy.

NOTE: Northern Rivers Planning Panel (NRPP) is constituted for local government areas of Armidale Regional, Ballina, Bellingen, Byron, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour City, Glen Innes Severn Shire, Gunnedah, Gwydir, Inverell, Kempsey, Kyogle, Lismore City, Liverpool Plains, Moree Plains, Nambucca, Narrabri, Port Macquarie-Hastings, Richmond Valley, Tamworth Regional, Tenterfield, Tweed, Uralla and Walcha.

Around 42 concerned Yamba residents – plus representatives of YambaCAN and Valley Watch, along with NSW MLC Cate Faehrmann and Yamba residents CVC Crs. Debrah Novak & Karen Toms – were online for this NRPP virtual public meeting.

Of those Yamba and Northern Rivers residents who had registered to speak at the meeting not one voiced support for the creation of this manufactured home estate. In fact the only persons appearing before the panel who supported this development were council staff and those employed by or representing the interests of Hometown America LLC – the most egregious of which was Bewsher Consulting Pty Ltd.

As an online observer of that meeting it is my opinion that neither Hometown Australia nor Clarence Valley Council staff offered solid proof that the planned development:

(i) “will not adversely affect the environment in the event of a flood”;

(ii) as “senior housing” did not fall within the existing Department of Planning, Industry and Environment category of “Sensitive and Hazardous Development”;

(iii) was not within one of those “areas with evacuation limitations”;

(iv) by adding another 136 dwellings to the existing 4,073 residential dwellings within town precincts [ABS, 2021] would not be increasing overall dwelling densities which would have “a significant impact on the ability of the existing community to evacuate using existing evacuation routes within the available warning time”. [DPIE, “Considering flooding in land use planning; Guideline”, July 2021]

In fact there is a strong possibility that this development is/will cause/contribute to all those matters found in the aforementioned (i) to (iv) list.

On completion of construction 8 Park Ave will be Hometown America’s sixth site in the Northern Rivers region – bringing its land lease sites in Yamba to two manufactured homes estates.

It will also increase the Yamba population by between 136 and 272 people over 50 years of age, in a town where 57.50% of the population are already aged 50 to 85 years of age and older [Australian Census, August 2021].

This development will also increase the population in the 0.37sq.km SA1 statistical precinct it lies within – from 654 persons to between 790–926 persons depending on number of occupants per dwelling at 8 Park Ave. 

Note: This statistical precinct is bounded by sections of Park Ave, Wattle Drive, Gumnut Road, The Links, The Mainbrace, Shores Drive and Yamba Road and currently contains more than 200 houses, townhouses and apartments/units. Along with one childminding centre and one motel [maps.abs.gov.au, 2021]

The current dwelling density within town boundaries is est. 345.7 per sq. km. It is not outside the realms of possibility that over the next 28 years dwelling density may rise as high as >400 per sq. km, given the cumulative effect of land release zoned for or under residential development elsewhere in Yamba. [IDcommunity: Demographic Resources, Clarence Valley Council Social Atlas, 2021]  

Sadly, it will also add to Yamba’s climate change risk as it places more pressure on the town’s only evacuation route in times of flooding-storm water inundation or storm surge. A route which has repeatedly failed during previous flood events given the number of locations floodwater cuts Yamba Road within township boundaries and beyond.

Over the course of the next 28 years the NSW Government’s so-called strategic planning for regional urban expansion apparently intends to increase the population of Yamba & environs by at least another 4,000 men, women and children.

They will all still be expected to travel along this road during high rainfall events, storm surge and/or flooding.

Yamba Road heading towards Oyster Channel Bridge, March 2022, IMAGE: March 2022, YambaCAN

Cross this bridge

Oyster Channel bridge linking Yamba with the wider Clarence Valley
IMAGE: March 2022,  supplied

And traverse causeways across two other river channels – the first of which is frequently cut during major flood events. 

This journey is the only option in any effort to find dry land and safety in the wider Clarence Valley, which itself would have been flooding for days ahead of any emergency services advice to evacuate all or part of Yamba township.

Yamba Road itself is a two lane undivided road carrying between 10,000 t0 17,000 vehicle movements a day as it crosses over Oyster Channel [Transport NSW July 2021]. Within town limits the road currently experiences est. 10,573 vehicle movements a day in the vicinity of its intersection with Treelands Drive and it has AM and PM peaks of 750 veh/hour for traffic travelling in both directions. The expectation it that traffic volume on Yamba Road is growing 3.5% annually [Geolink, March 2022].

This main road varies between 1.4mAHD and 2mAHD in height which mean it can be cut by flood water in one or more of at least five points along its length within the town before Oyster Channel bridge and a number of points after the bridge along that section from Micalo Island to Maclean township limits. This road can be inundated somewhere along its length in 1 in 10 ARI and greater flood events. 

Reading the little that is written by local and state governments, emergency services and property developers about emergency evacuation from Yamba, it appears that from now into the foreseeable future the entire town population of est. 6,405 men, women and children along with the town's visitor population which can range anywhere between a few hundred to thousands of holidaymakers, are expected to immediately respond to advice to evacuate the predominately low-lying areas of the town.

Even on a fine day without the river in flood, with Yamba on the move in est. 4,180 vehicles accompanied by an untold number of visitor cars (some towing caravans or boats) on that one westbound lane of a two lane road, just how long would it take to first clear the town limits and then continue on that approx. 19km stretch of Yamba Road to reach Maclean or the turnoff to the Pacific Highway? In a high rainfall event with advice to evacuate ahead of a major flood? I suspect that there would be multiple intersection traffic snarls within the first hour.

An evacuation situation which is not supposed to be allowed to develop under official planning policies, guidelines, orders and directions found in the NSW Government “Flood prone land package”.

As an alternative to a closed evacuation route heading out of town, in a major flood local residents are expected after registering at the Bowling Club to head for the only high ground in Yamba – Pilot Hill and environs.

A hill with the Pacific Ocean at its foot. A hill historically known for increased groundwater levels during days of sustained rain or heavy rainfall events. Events which have been associated with land slumping, scouring, earthslides, earthflows and landslides on the marginal stability slopes.

A hill with a mapped landslip risk area which includes much of the community land/open space available to persons seeking safety during times when there is widespread flooding in the low-lying residential sections of the town.

The highlighted area shows Crown land/community land & properties in the Yamba landslide risk zone, as defined by Clarence Valley Council in March 2017

So how big a burden can this hill physically carry when it comes to evacuees? There is no answer to that question that I can find. Perhaps the question is yet to be asked by federal, state and local government or emergency services.

All I know is that even if one only calculated on the basis of average body weight of 3,000 adults [ABS 2011-12] and average unladen weight of 750 full-sized sedan motor vehicles [AuotChimp 2022], then a mass evacuation of less than half the resident population to Pilot Hill and environs and congregating there on community land in the absence of sufficient emergency accommodation, this would place an additional surface weight stress of est. 1,560 tons. A weight which would be moving and vibrating not only on the geologically safe section around the water tower but also on land having marginal stability in adverse weather conditions.

I cannot state my opinion any clearer than this – any large scale emergency evacuation of the Yamba population is highly likely to fail because of city-centric policymakers basic lack of informed understanding of vulnerabilities in the local road network, continued bad urban development planning loading a higher population into a town known to become isolated in natural disasters and, insufficient understanding of changing sea rise, storm surge and flood behaviours. Lives will inevitably be lost if or when situations become catastrophic.

 

BACKGROUND

Hometown America LLC is a residential land lease company operating over 60 manufactured home sites in the U.S. styled as affordable housing.

The corporation is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and has two business divisions – the Hometown America Family Communities and Hometown America Age-Qualified (55+) Communities.

Its current CEO/President is Richard Cline.

Hometown America has been the defendant in multiple legal actions principally brought by individuals and groups of individuals who were residents in its U.S. land lease-manufactured home sites.

Hometown America is the parent company of Hometown Australia headquartered in Queensland and when it was establishing itself in Australia was composed of the following entities:

A.C.N. 626 522 085 Pty. Ltd – registered in NSW on 31 May 2018

Hometown Australia Management Pty Ltd (ACN 614 529 538 )

Hometown Australia Nominees Pty Ltd (ACN 616 047 084) atf Hometown Australia Property Trust (Hometown).

Through its Australian subsidiary Hometown Australia this U.S. corporation currently operates est. 51 sites in Queensland, South Australia and New South Wales, marketed as affordable housing and lifestyle living for the over 50s. Including 4 sites in the Northern Rivers regions.

Hometown America’s land-lease sites in NSW are governed by the provisions in the Residential (Land Lease) Communities Act 2013.

Real Estate agents Kevin Tucker and Stuart Long appear to be joint managing directors of Hometown Australia.

In the first financial year Hometown America LLC was operating in Australia 2019-20 its local arm Hometown Australia Holdings Pty Ltd declared an income of $185,480,667 with no taxable income and no taxes paid. In 2020-21 its second financial year its local arm declared  $314,117, 781 in income with no taxable income or tax paid. [Australian Taxation Office, Data Sets, Corporate Tax Transparency, Report on Entity Tax Information 2019-20 & 2020-21]

Hometown Australia is gaining a similar reputation to its U.S. parent company when it comes to resident’s complaints and concerns about its business practices – particularly in relation rent increases and poor maintenance of community facilities [media report 2020, media report 2021 & media report 2022].