Exactly 725 days into the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia and the elderly continue to die in NSW due to the indifference of the Morrison & Perrottet governments

As of 8pm on Wednesday 19 January 2022 there were 19,791 new confirmed COVID -19 cases reported by NSW Health in the last 24hr period. - comprising 17, 647 positive PCR tests and est. 2,144 self-reported positive rapid antigen tests.

Given the level of COVID-19 case under reporting this represents due to the combined state & federal mismanagement of the public health response (including disease test, trace & contact measures), conservatively the real NSW daily new case number on 19 January is estimated in excess of 98,995 persons.

Currently there are 2,781 COVID-19 cases admitted to NSW hospitals, including 212 people in intensive care, 68 of whom require ventilation.

As at Monday 17 January 166,122 people in the state were managing their COVID-19 illness at home or in insecure accommodation.

In the 24hrs to 8pm on 17 January a total of 25 people died with a COVID-19 diagnoses - 16 men and 9 women – with 65% of those dead being between 70 years of age to over 100 years of age.

As of 19 January 2022 there were 278,324 active COVID-19 cases across New South Wales.

The positivity rate on those daily PCR tests is 24.08% - so far above the World Health Organisation benchmark for an epidemic virus within a controllable range (under 5%) that there is no reason to see these numbers signalling the beginning of the end of the pandemic in New South Wales or Australia generally. Indeed, by week ending 15 January 2022 all 15 NSW local health districts were recording positivity rates of more than 5 %.

According to a Northern NSW Health District (NNSWLHD) media release on 20 January 2022:

To 8pm 19 January, 1,051 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Northern NSW Local Health District, including 601 positive PCR tests and 450 positive rapid antigen tests (RATs).

By LGA:

Ballina 63 [968 active cases]

Byron 78 [1,384 active cases]

Clarence Valley 45 [458 active cases]

Kyogle 14 [89 active cases]

Lismore 48 [591 active cases]

Richmond Valley 61 [374 active cases]

Tenterfield 2 (Woodenbong & Urbenville post code that comes under Lismore PHU)

Tweed 290 [3,391 active cases]

NOTE: My annotations in red come from data recorded for 19 January 2022 on “Map of NSW PCR tests and cases reported from PCR tests”

There are 50 COVID-19 positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW, with 6 of these in ICU. (Tenterfield is in a different Local Health District, but postcodes put cases in NNSWLHD).

** Please note these RAT results may be from within the previous seven days, and there may be some cases included in these numbers where people have reported positive RATs on multiple days and/or where people have also had a positive PCR test during the same reporting period.

Quite frankly the NNSWLHD’s inability to accurately record and quantify the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in Northern NSW makes a mockery of any claim to have a genuine test, trace, contact & isolate/quarantine system in place. A failing they share with NSW Health and NSW Coalition Government. Therefore I am at a loss as to how I might accurately record the real number of daily new cases by postcode for the 7 local government areas within this health district.

SOURCES

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20220120_00.aspx

• https://nnswlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/blog/2022/01/20/covid-19-update-20-january-2022/

• https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/699349/20220119-COVID-19-Risk-Monitoring-Dashboard.pdf

• https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/stay-safe/data-and-statistics#toc-map-of-nsw-pcr-tests-and-cases-reported-from-pcr-tests

 

Living the pandemic ' new normal' in New South Wales January 2022

Want to know why in New South Wales chaos is the 'new normal'?

COVID-19 published data finally confirmed a truth - by week ending 9 January 2022 only 78.3% of total NSW population was fully vaccinated. Note: it’s possible that government was using June 2019 or 2020 population totals which would result in a lower fully vaccinated percentage total.

What this means is when Dominic Perrottet became premier in early October 2021 the real vaccination rate of the total state population (ABS pop. 30 June 2021) was under 55% & by 25 November 2021 it was still not the loudly boasted about 80% total. Even with est. 42% of the population aged 12 to 90 years of age & over being fully vaccinated.  And he knew those vaccination rates were misleading as he had been a member of NSW crisis cabinet since its creation.

Yet knowing all this Perrottet still kept Morrison & Berejiklian’s insane 'living with COVID’ push alive by further reducing public health protections in the face of a new Omicron Variant Outbreak combining with an existing Delta Variant Outbreak. 

The NSW Premier and MLA for Epping intentionally opened up vulnerable villages, towns & cities in 128 local government areas and communities them to fend for themselves.

The rest is history. Because ‘opening up’ the state with a real full vaccination rate well under the promised 70-80% (a percentage range much of the expert advice to government was based on) and, with the bare minimum of a test, trace, contact & isolate public health structure in place, the combined Delta-Omicron infection growth began to surge and is on its way to being an epidemiological tsunami which will toss New South Wales this way and that for at least the next six weeks, perhaps longer.

This because, despite the fact that full vaccination of those 12 to 90 years of age & older has now reached est. 86.1%, a significant number of those vaccinated since 22 February 2021 no longer have a high level of protection against the virus. 

By the week ending 9 January 2022, 68.9% of all COVID-19 cases hospitalized across the state were patients who had been fully vaccinated sometime in the last 22 months and, as of 15 January only 25.4% of all fully vaccinated NSW residents have received a vaccine booster injection to increase waning immunity levels.

Even reinstating a weak mishmash of previous public health restrictions is not going to change what is happening now that the virus has reached the status of uncontrolled.

The exact number of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual COVID-19 cases which have occurred in the New South Wales resident population can no longer be reliably quantified. The 'let it rip'  mentality of the Australian and NSW Coalition Governments had overseen the disintegration of a public health response to SARS-CoV-2 the virus and COVID-19 the infectious disease it caused.  A situation which was laid bare by December 2021 when it became impossible to test or count every person in the state who was displaying/fallen ill with COVID-19 symptoms.

There were at total of 23,456 new confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by NSW Health to 8pm Saturday 15 January 2022, with the deaths of 20 people of whom 14 people were vaccinated against COVID-19 and six people were not vaccinated.

NOTE: The aforementioned total new cases includes both positive PCR and RAT results, but excludes those 11, 204 positive RAT results included in 15 January figures which actually occurred in the last 7 days. It seems that the difficulty in sourcing a RAT has resulted in only est. 2,478 COVID-19 positive home being reported within the last 24 hours to 8pm 15 January.

Currently there are 2,650 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, including 191 people in intensive care, 61 of whom require ventilation.

As of 8pm 15 January there are 342,838 active COVID-19 cases in the state - less than 1% of these people would currently be in hospital and the remainder are understood to be self-managing their illness outside of a hospital setting either in the home or insecure accommodation.

Currently NSW Health is recording the incidence of COVID-19 diagnostic testing in the last four weeks up to 15 January as 125 PCR tests done per 1,000 head of population. Since 26 November 2021 a large proportion of all positive PCR tests have not had genomic sequencing.

According to NSW Health of the 20,978 new cases confirmed by PCR testing as at 8pm on Saturday 15 January 2022: 4,063 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 3,139 are from Western Sydney LHD, 2,336 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 1,875 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 1,858 are from Sydney LHD, 1,755 are from Hunter New England LHD, 1,458 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 989 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 686 are from Northern NSW LHD, 610 are from Central Coast LHD, 571 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 489 are from Southern NSW LHD, 439 are from Western NSW LHD, 257 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 67 are from Far West LHD, 2 are in correctional settings, and 384 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

To 8pm 15 January, 686 COVID-19 cases confirmed by PCR testing were recorded across 7 local government areas in Northern NSW Local Health District:

Tweed Shire – 353 cases

Byron Shire – 126 cases

Ballina Shire – 84 cases

Lismore City – 49 cases

Clarence Valley – 33 cases

Richmond Valley – 28 cases

Kyogle Shire – 13 cases

TOTAL 686

NOTE: NSW Location database is only updated 5 days out of every seven so postcodes for 15 January not yet available at time of posting.

Currently there are 52 COVID-19 positive patients in hospital in Northern NSW, with 8 of these in ICU.

IMAGE: found on Twitter

The Weekend Australian reported on 16 January 2022:

“It is as we feared,” Dr Chris Ingall, from the hospital’s medical staff council, told the publication.

“We are seeing an almost exclusively unvaccinated population in the hospital and exclusively unvaccinated in the intensive care ward at this point.

“We predicted this, we said there would be a tsunami here, everyone predicted it would sweep through the pockets of the unvaccinated.”…..

One of the people in ICU is Mullimbimby-based tarot card reader and reiki master Helen Dean who had previously protested against vaccine mandates.

She caught the virus last month and has been on a ventilator since Christmas Day…...

The Daily Telegraph reported she was taken off life support on Saturday but remains in ICU…..

Meanwhile, NSW Health data has revealed the impact anti-vaxxers are causing on the health system.

Of NSW’s Covid deaths, 420 were unvaccinated while just 96 had the jab.

The Daily Telegraph also estimated the cost of ICU per patient per day is about $4375.

SOURCES

• https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2022-nsw-health.aspx
• https://aci.health.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/critical-intelligence-unit/dashboard
• https://nnswlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/blog/category/media-releases/
• https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2021/10/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-6-october-2021.pdf
• https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/latest-release
• https://twitter.com/NSWHealth
• https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/332073/WHO-2019-nCoV-Adjusting_PH_measures-Criteria-2020.1-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

COVID-19 Pandemic as the country enters 2022

To recap the bad news we are all living as we enter 2022, with no end in sight....

 

# As at 8pm on Wednesday, 1 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 271 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales.

These were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 271 cases reported to 8pm last night, 68 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 57 are from Western Sydney LHD, 49 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 29 are from Sydney LHD, 18 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 12 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 10 are from Hunter New England LHD, nine are from Western NSW LHD, five are from Murrumbidgee LHD, three are from Mid North Coast LHD, three are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, three are from Southern NSW LHD, two are from Central Coast LHD, two are from Northern NSW LHD, and one is yet to be assigned to an LHD.

Currently there were 144 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 24 people in intensive care, 10 of whom require ventilation.

Additionally est. 2,112 people ill with COVID-19 were being cared for outside of a hospital setting and a day earlier on 30 November the number of active COVID-19 cases in the state was recorded as 2,633 persons.

At that point in time only 6 cases of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant infection had been identified in the state.

# By 8pm on Wednesday 15 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 1,742 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 of which 122 were identified as COVID-19 caused by the Omicron Variant.

Currently there were 192 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 26 people in intensive care, 8 of whom require ventilation.

At the beginning of that week there were an additional 3,342 people ill with COVID-19 recorded as being cared for outside a hospital setting and est. 5,179 active COVID-19 cases across the state.

On 15 December, COVID-19 cases were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 1,742 cases reported to 8pm last night, 633 are from Hunter New England Local Health District (LHD), 231 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 188 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 166 are from Western Sydney LHD, 159 are from Sydney LHD, 111 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 81 are from Northern NSW LHD, 43 are from Central Coast LHD, 38 are from Western NSW LHD, 28 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 23 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 14 are from Mid North Coast LHD, five are from Murrumbidgee LHD, four are from Far West LHD, three are from Southern NSW LHD, and 15 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

# At 8pm on Wednesday, 29 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 12,226 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 of which it was estimated that 80% were likely caused by COVID-19 with the Omicron Variant.

Currently there were 746 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 63 people in intensive care, 24 of whom require ventilation. On 29 December the Australian Dept. of Health reported est. 70,928 active COVID-19 cases across New South Wales.

On 29 December COVID-19 cases were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 12,226 cases reported to 8pm last night, 2,229 are from South Eastern Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 2,085 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 2,042 are from Western Sydney LHD, 1,767 are from Sydney LHD, 1,310 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 708 are from Hunter New England LHD, 612 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 291 are from Central Coast LHD, 247 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 244 are from Northern NSW LHD, 120 are from Mid North Coast LHD, 107 are from Southern NSW LHD, 73 are from Western NSW LHD, 72 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, eight are from Far West LHD, three are in correctional settings, and 308 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

# The next day, Thursday 30 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 21,151 new confirmed COVID-19 cases including 6 deaths.

Currently there were 832 COVID-19 cases being treated in hospital, with 69 people in intensive care, 19 of whom require ventilation. There were est. 89,418 active COVID-19 cases across the state.

On 30 December COVID-19 cases were spread across all 15 local health districts:

Of the 21,151 cases reported to 8pm last night, 4,647 are from South Eastern Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 3,439 are from South Western Sydney LHD, 2,919 are from Western Sydney LHD, 2,278 are from Sydney LHD, 2,194 are from Northern Sydney LHD, 1,983 are from Hunter New England LHD, 821 are from Illawarra Shoalhaven LHD, 632 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD, 597 are from Central Coast LHD, 260 are from Northern NSW LHD, 244 are from Western NSW LHD, 159 are from Southern NSW LHD, 131 are from Murrumbidgee LHD, 121 are from Mid North Coast LHD, six are from Far West LHD, and 720 are yet to be assigned to an LHD.

Between 8pm on Wednesday and 8pm Thursday the number of new COVID-19 infections recorded came close to officially doubling, 

Given the under reporting of COVID-19 cases due to reduced access to testing facilities between Christmas and New Year; quickly followed by facilities not being able to process the high numbers of people presenting; followed in turn by the NSW Perrottet Government in conjunction with the Morrison Government actively seeking to deter people from seeking testing - including limiting eligibility for CPR testing as well as rationing distribution of rapid antigen test kits and threatening to charge around $200 for 'unnecessary' test requests; it is possible the true number of daily cases in NSW at 8pm on 30 December 2021 was in the vicinity of 25,381 infected men women and children.

It would not be surprising to hear that sometime next week New South Wales reported a daily case total of over 40,000.

A total of 35 people with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis died in NSW between 1 to 30 December 2021 bringing the state death toll since the start of the pandemic to est. 665 men, women & children. 

UPDATE 

# At 8pm on Friday, 31 December 2021 NSW Health recorded 22,577 new confirmed COVID-19 cases including 4 deaths.

Currently 901 people ill with COVID-19 are being treated in hospital, with 79 in intensive care. 

As there is a 24 hour lag in daily data publication and today is New Year's Day 2022 there is only this graphic published by NSW Health.

At 8pm Friday, 31 December, 306 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed across all 7 of the local government areas in the Northern NSW Local Health District:

• Byron Shire – 152 cases
• Tweed Shire – 63 cases
• Ballina Shire – 50 cases
• Lismore Shire – 24 cases
• Clarence Valley – 9 cases
• Richmond Valley – 5 cases
• Kyogle Shire – 3 cases.

TOTAL 306

Currently in Northern NSW there are 18 people being treated in hospital, with 3 in intensive care.